The Kyle Neptune Problem

Frankly, my heart feels for Kyle Neptune. The man has been dealt a shit hand. However, he’s also done himself no favors. It feels like time for ‘nova to move on from Kyle Neptune. The questions are “when?” and “how?”

In the sympathy category, Neptune was brought in very late in the cycle his first year, being hired on April 20, 2022, and Jay Wright, for all his great success, did not leave much of an NIL infrastructure behind for Neptune to work with, which makes sense when you consider that NIL is part of the reason Jay retired in the first place.

When he was hired, the portal had already been open for weeks. Some kids had even committed to new schools already. He didn’t pull a single player from the portal, and was left to roll with what was on the roster, and the incoming freshmen class that he managed to hold together (no doubt with an assist from Wright).

Additionally, the man has to toil in the incredibly long shadow of Jay Wright, the greatest coach in program history, and one of the greatest coaches of all-time.

Year 1 - Give the Man a Pass!

While that might not seem great, it was a team coming off a Final Four, returning Justin Moore, Eric Dixon, Jermaine Samuels, Caleb Daniels, Jordan Longino, and Brandon Slater. To that core Neptune kept together a freshmen class ranked 19th in the country per 247, containing future NBA player Cam Whitmore (11), Mark Armstrong (62), and Brendan Hausen (136). Hausen was not ready to contribute meaningfully as a freshman, and frankly neither was Armstrong. Unfortunately for Neptune, when Moore went down for the season 13 games in, Armstrong was pressed into service as the lead guard. It did not go well, averaging 22 MPG, 1.2 assists, a 1-to-1 assist to turnover ratio, and 5.7 ppg.

Nova struggled Neptune’s first year, but still finished 17-17 (10-10), 6th in the Big East. It was a “pass” year for Neptune between the late start and the Moore injury, a lackluster performance could be forgiven, even despite bad losses to Temple and Portland when at full strength early in the year.

Neptune channeling the frustrations of Kevin McCallister all ‘nova nation during last year’s roller coaster season.

Year 2 - Locked and Loaded and Strapped In for the Roller Coaster

What followed that summer was a portal spending spree. Villanova spent the season getting its NIL in-order, and Neptune took full advantage come April. He brought in big, athletic guard TJ Bamba from Wazzou, he brought in Tyler Burton from Richmond—one of the most sought after players in the portal, Hakim Hart—a proven guard from Maryland, and most-puzzlingly Lance Ware—a C/F who could barely get off the floor at Kentucky in 3 seasons.

On paper, the team looked ready to head back to the NCAAT. There was optimism on the main line. Nova wasted no time taking a huge steamy dump all over said optimism. A week into the season they lost by 4 to Penn in the Palestra. However, they followed that up with 4 straight wins against power conference opponents in the top 80 of KenPom, en route to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis—vs. Maryland (62), Texas Tech (31), UNC (9), and Memphis (76). It looked like the Penn game was a distant memory. A small bump on the road to the promised land.

The flight home from Atlantis must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way. Five days after beating Memphis to win the Battle, Villanova dropped a home game at the Finn to the other SJU (99) 78-65. The loss guaranteed Villanova would be in the 5th/6th place game versus Drexel (126) in the Big5. Villanova also lost to Drexel on ‘nova’s secondary home floor, the Wells Fargo Center (a game that inexplicably is a “neutral” site in the eyes of the NCAA, despite SJU’s BET games being counted as “home” games by the NCAA. Make it make sense).

At that point the resume damage was done, and it would take a herculean effort in conference play to get back. But the roller coaster had a couple more bumps. Nova beat a bad UCLA squad at home to round out their OOC schedule. They followed that up by opening Big East play with an overtime victory over Creighton (11) in Omaha, once again inspiring hope—this time that ‘nova could pull off the massive conference season it needed to get back to the tournament. The followed-up with a routine road victory over DePaul (304) and a 1-point home victory over Xavier (56).

Nova proceeded to lose 7 of its next 9, the lone wins being vs. DePaul and vs. Providence (59), both at home. They did come within a point of a home victory over UConn, but followed that up by getting humiliated by 20 points in MSG vs. St. John’s. They also started the 7-of-9 streak with an embarrassing loss at home to St. John’s, a 10-pt L that didn’t feel remotely that close (I would know, I was there), with St. John’s keeping ‘nova at bay the entire game, goign wire-to-wire.

And THAT 7-of-9 stretch was all she wrote wrote. At 12-11 (5-7) ‘nova needed to win out or win the BET to make the dance. Neither of which occurred.

Player Regression: A Theme That Generates Depression

Who is that masked man?! Certainly not the TJ Bamba Wazzou and Oregon Ducks fans know!

This background is important to set the stage, but also to tell the story of one of the worst aspects of Neptune’s tenure: player regression. It has been seen almost across the board with transfers. Tyler Burton went from 19 ppg to 7.5, and eFG from 50.9% to 48.5%. The A10 to the Big East is a jump, no doubt, but he still should’ve averaged double digits.

TJ Bamba went from 15.8 ppg to 10, but his eFG actually improved, bringing him from 49.6% to 51.5%, the problem? His usage dropped off from 27.5% at Wazzou to 20.7%, he played 32.2 mpg at Wazzou to 28 on the Main Line, and he went from 12.6 FGA at Wazzou to 8 at ‘nova. Watching the Wildcats last year I found myself flabbergasted that they were not using TJ Bamba—a proven high major scoring threat—more than they were. And Bamba is right back at it this year, starting all 3 games for the Oregon Ducks, and posting 12 ppg in just 24.7 mpg, with a slightly improved 52% eFG.

Hakim Hart, another proven high major player, suffered a similar fate, going from 32 mpg to 22 mpg from Maryland to ‘nova, and going from 11.4 ppg to 6.3 ppg.

The odd thing is, this only seems to happen to transfers. Dixon took a jump in year 1 of Neptune, stayed flat year 2, and looks like the best version of himself so far in this young season. Before his injury, Justin Moore looked like his old self for 13 games under Neptune. Caleb Daniels improved in year 1 of Neptune. Brandon Slater was basically the same under Neptune. And Jordan Longino suddenly seems to be closer to what ‘nova fans thought they were getting this season than he was the previous 3 years.

While it might be expected that guys who came up for a year or 2 under Jay might have a leg up on developing, it held true for the 2 freshmen that only played for Neptune as well. Mark Armstrong progressed slightly, before bouncing for the G-League. Brendan Hausen improved slightly year 1 to year 2 before bouncing for K-State where he’s averaging 19.5 ppg through 3 games on 55.6% from deep. Unsustainable? Sure. But clearly Hausen is a mixed bag in that he both progressed a bit under Neptune, but Neptune never unlocked his full potential.

This dichotomy is very interesting in that there were certainly some rumblings that Neptune didn’t have as much control over the transfer process as you’d have expected, with NIL funders and boosters driving the bus. That would explain the difference between the team on paper and the middling results.

It will be interesting to see what happens with this years less-talented transfer class. Can Kyle coach them up, or will we see more regression? Is this less-heralded transfer class a better fit for Neptune than last year’s high-caliber class? Early returns are not promising.

However, if by some miracle Kyle Neptune is retained, or if he finds another job at a lower level, it might be worth considering a modified Shaka Smart approach. I think “no transfers ever” is a bit extreme, but if Neptune focuses on bringing in and developing top high school recruits, and supplements with one or 2 transfer that fit the roster, it’s possible he can improve his results. Of course, being retained or getting another job are HUGE “ifs” for Neptune.

Year 3 - Cue The Doors: “ This is the End”?

This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end

It certainly feels like the end and we’re only 4 games in. The Wildcats started out with a shaky win over Lafayette by 12, a deficit that belies the nip-and-tuck nature of this game, which was a 1-point battle at halftime, and was only a 6 point game with 5:30 to play.

Neptune’s squad followed that up with a home loss to Columbia by 10 in the Finn. Columbia felt like they got any look they wanted, and hung 90 on Nova. Two games later, ‘nova went on the road across town and lost to the other SJU by 7, practically guaranteeing that ‘nova will not win the Big5.

In Jay Wright’s tenure Villanova won at least a share of the Big5 title in the old round robin format 13 of the 18 seasons (11 outright) it was contested (canceled in 2020-21 for COVID), including 5 straight from 2013 through 2017, and 7 of his last 8. Neptune won a share of the Big 5 his first season, and finished 6th in the Big5 last season. He likely will not win again this season.

In a vacuum, neither losing to no. 158 in KenPom nor no. 103 is unforgivable. But we do not exist in vacuums, we exist in the context of all that has come before. In this case, it’s a 3-5 record in Big 5 games. It’s losing to 2 inferior opponents in 3 games. It’s not making a tournament his first 2 seasons. It’s all of the following losses since taking over:

• at Temple (120)

• Portland (N) (157)

• at DePaul (135)

• at Buttler (119)

• at Penn (213)

• vs. the other SJU (99)

• vs. Drexel (126)

• vs. Columbia (158)

• vs. the other SJU, again (103)

You simply cannot lose that many bad games as a high major team in a 3-year span.

It also feels like, from the outside, NIL donors pulled back some of their NIL dollars this past off-season, given how little high-level talent ‘nova brought in, and the fact that half of it came from their own backyard.

Wooga Poplar is the only proven high-major player on this roster. Jhamir Brickus is an undersized PG from La Salle. He can definitely ball, but his defense leaves much to be desired (as does Poplar’s for that matter). Tyler Perkins also moved from the city out to the main line suburbs, transferring from Penn to ‘nova. Perkins played forward at Penn, but is being asked to play as a 2-guard. He definitely has the shot for it, but might not be ready to play at this level or defend Big East guards.

To make matters worse, Neptune seems to be saying all the wrong things.

What Went Wrong?

On top of the lack of talent this season (a new problem, as the last 2 rosters were plenty talented), I think it’s clear Kyle was simply not ready for a high major coaching gig. There’s always the instinct to keep things “in-house” at successful programs, but the Jay Wright coaching tree is not very strong, and Neptune was one of the only coaches in the family that could credibly be considered. Pat Chambers had failed out at Penn State, Speedy Claxton may have been a better hire, but I don’t think he was fully viewed as “in the family,” since he never played or coached at ‘nova. Tom Pecora was off in the wilderness as Quinnipiac’s assistant head coach after failing at Fordham. Urgo had yet to be a head coach. So that really left Kyle as the only possible “in-house” candidate. Further complicating matters was that Jay Wright screwed ‘nova with is late resignation, leaving limited outside options, and certainly none with a marquee name.

The look says it all…

At the time, Kyle’s resume consisted of being Jay’s assistant and one season at Fordham where he took them from laughingstock A10 basement dweller with KenPom’s of 292, 260, 245, and 310 in the 4 years before he arrived, to a respectable middle-of-the-pack A10 side with a KenPom of 173. Not an amazing turnaround by any stretch, but it was still a very nice coaching job by Neptune. The calling card of that Fordham team was its defense, ranking 41st in KenPom AdjD. The offense was abysmal, clocking in at 321st. At ‘nova his teams have been all over, currently ranking 93 in AdjD after finishing 13th last season, and the AdjO ranks 37 currently. Last year the offense ranked 87th. 

On the offensive end turnovers have been killer, with ‘nova sporting a 18.4% TO%, good for 196th in the country, and almost as bad as Neptune’s 139th ranked offense, which came in at 18.9%. On the defensive end, this year’s team is allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3, 238th in the country, while allowing opponents to shoot 43% of their shots from deep. They also allow teams to really work the ball around, as they’re loathe to press or trap ball handlers in the half court, allowing an assist percentage of 65%, 327th in the nation. Similarly, they’re just 259th in the country in TO% defense for much the same reason.

One last note, Jay Wright’s later teams were notoriously slow. They kept the game manageable, using a slow pace, IQ, and beautiful, position-less basketball to frequently make up for talent deficits. It became such a thing that it’s hard to remember his teams ever playing differently. The slow pace allowed the IQ and coaching to shine through as his players patiently broke down a defense, hunting for a good shot.

Jay Wright teams ranked slower than 200th in KenPom AdjTempo won 1 of his 2 national championships, made another F4, another S16, another tournament berth, and had ‘nova poised to do damage as a 2/3 seed in 2020 before the world shut down. However, Jay knew how to play to his personnel. In 2017-18 Jay won his 2nd national championship with the number 1 offense in the country, and the played at the 150th tempo in the country. That was bar none Jay’s most talented roster, featuring future NBA stars Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, as well as short-lived NBA players and current European pros Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall, European pro Phil Booth and of course NBA player, and the sixth man of ‘nova’s championship team, the Big Ragu himself, Donte Divincenzo (side note, Donte was 6 years old growing up in Newark, Delaware when I was a freshman in college there. Fuck I’m old.).

In other words, that a fuck ton of talent. And because there was so much talent, Jay let the reins go loose a bit, allowing his talent to play a little faster, but under control, allowing the pure unadulterated talent of that roster carry the day.

On the flip side, Kyle’s Fordham team played at the 139th pace in the country, but again, the offense was atrocious. Whether that offense scared Neptune, or whether he got back to Villanova and thought “I gotta do it Jay’s way,” all 3 of his teams at ‘nova have ranked sub-300 in tempo. That is a snails pace. That is the slowest Tony Bennett (RIP) Virginia teams. When he had as much talent has he had the first two years, it might have behooved him to quicken the pace just a little bit, and allow his offensive studs to go to work. Slow games make it easy for plucky underdogs to swing upsets. If I only have to be better than you across 100 possessions, that’s a much smaller sample size, and will be more prone to variance than 120 possessions or 140 possessions (2 average paced teams) or 160 possessions.

Can you play slow and be successful? Of course, Jay Wright and Tony Bennett did it to great success. But they both had highly experienced teams. Jay’s first national championship team started 4 juniors who had played all 3 years at ‘nova (a different era). Tony Bennet’s national championship team was eerily similar, with a rotation that included 1 senior, 4 juniors, 2 sophomores and 1 freshman. All but 1 of the upperclassmen was a transfer, the rest played multiple years under Bennet.

In the transfer portal age, when you have a talented roster, it is probably best to play the numbers, and at least play to an average pace. If a team is going to upset you, at least make them prove it over a larger sample size. Playing slow feeds right into Cinderella’s hands.

Given the shortcomings with his ‘nova squad, and the fact that he seems to just be trying to emulate Jay Wright instead of putting his own coaching stamp on the team, Kyle Neptune could have used a few more years at Fordham to hone his craft and develop his own style of play. Instead, Jay and ‘nova threw him out of the frying pan and into the fire, giving him a promotion he was not ready for. He was almost set up to fail. Rather than try to carve out his style as a coach, he reverted to the familiar “Nova Way,” and it has been an abject failure.

Many people called for Neptune’s head last season. Frankly, I was one of them (though “call” probably too much, since I really had no dog in the fight, but I felt they should’ve fired him). Four games into 2024-25, and it is clear that those who called for Kyle’s head were right. He should have been let go.

When? and How? and Who?

This is the million dollar question. Personally, I am of the belief that firing an abysmal coach mid-season is the correct move. MAYBE you can salvage something a la Ohio State with Jake Diebler last year, but at the very least you help prevent apathy in the fan base by send the clear, unwavering message that “we hear you, this is unacceptable and we’re not going to tolerate it,” and you give yourself all the time in the world to fully evaluate potential hires, initiate back channels, and develop a clear strategy for the coaching search in March. So if it were me, I’d fire him yesterday. But certainly Saturday at the latest, after they lose to Bennett-less UVa in Baltimore on Friday.

Of course it’s not me, in fact it’s technically no body at this time, as Villanova doesn’t have an athletic director at the moment, not even on an interim basis. Whether the president of the university knows, cares, or is likely to do anything about it mid-season is a question better directed to ‘nova folks who know the inner workings of the school better than I do. However, I see no reason why the president couldn’t step in and make the call. This season has already been embarrassing to the public face of your university (the program, not Neptune), and it may only get worse. Firing Neptune at least stops the damage to the brand, as everyone will expect an embarrassment with an interim head coach.

Kyle Neptune and future Villanova Interim Head Coach Jerold Taylor Wright, Jr. in happier times.

Alternatively, they don’t even have to go the usual route and promote an assistant to head coach…I know a certain two-time national championship winning coach who is sitting at home most days, except the handful of days each month he’s broadcasting. That’s right…”interim head coach Jay Wright!”

I know, it sounds crazy, but as I said above, the last 2 seasons one couldn’t help but wonder “what if Jay had this team?” That question feels less poignant with this less talented roster, but I still firmly believe that if you gave Jay the reins tomorrow, he could at least make the NCAAT. Does Jay say yes? Almost certainly not, but it’d be worth a call if you’re the decision maker at ‘nova.

Realistically, Villanova/Vanillanova/VillaNoFun is a small ‘c’ conservative institution, without an athletic director, who has their first black head coach on the sidelines. Firing him 4-5 games into the season would be a bad look on many levels, and is highly unlikely. There’s probably a slightly better chance that he gets fired mid-season, but I’d still put the odds pretty low.

The most likely outcome is a March firing following the BET. I’m not sure who would be on that short list. I would expect you absolutely have to go outside the family at this point. As well-regarded as Urgo is, he’s yet to prove anything, and just hiring another middling Fordham coach might cause a certain Twitter user to sue the university to get his parents’ past 1842 Day donations back...and also cause the rest of the fan base to revolt. The one name I saw floated by Chris—formerly of the Full40 podcast—was Speedy Claxton. Claxton’s Flying Dutchmen defeated Seton Hall last night, and as Chris pointed out, Speedy might be sufficiently “in the family,” but also far enough removed from ‘nova that he brings a fresh perspective and fresh ideas to the main line. I’ll be honest, I was not that high on Speedy initially, but he had won me over by the end of his 2nd year. All he does is win and recruit above his head at Hofstra.

In any event, unfortunately for my ‘nova friends, I think things will get a whole lot worse before they get better. Godspeed.

BIG EAST TWITTER COGNOSCENTI POLL

So I had an idea, we’ll see how this goes. A weekly Big East AP-style poll comprised of known and trusted Big East fan accounts, bloggers, podcasters, etc. We got 32 responses, but a certain Butler fan who shall remain nameless misunderstood the assignment, so I was unfortunately forced to toss his ballot, leaving 31. Having Villanova as #1 was a dead giveaway you did not understand what was happening haha.

To keep it from being a popularity contest, and in line with the official Big East Coach’s preseason poll, you could not vote for your own team. However, down the bottom there’s a “fan pulse” section for each team, where I asked each voter for the fan pulse of their team. Additionally, we voted for Big East Player of the Week, with the results below. The poll was scored 10 points for a first place vote, 9 for a 2nd, etc. on down to 1 point for 10th.

So without further adieu, here are the results of the Twitter Cognoscenti Poll, parens are first place votes, after the hyphen is total points:

1. UConn (25) - 276

2. Marquette (1) - 229

3. Creighton (3) - 226

4. St. John’s (1) - 180

5. Xavier - 147

6. Providence - 130

7. DePaul (1) - 90

8. Georgetown - 78

9. Villanova - 66

10. Butler - 64

11. Seton Hall - 54

Given the structure of the poll, we’ll never have a truly unanimous number 1, as that team’s fans would have to vote for someone else, but even still, UConn fell 3 votes short of first place. Those votes went to Creighton, Marquette, and…DePaul?! I’ll allow it!

Player of the Week:

Ryan Kalkbrenner (1st) - 20/32 votes

The man, the myth, the legend: Cockbrenner

Not even remotely shocking to see Cockbrenner win Player of the Week from our panel. The man dropped a double double on UTRGV. And you might say, so what? It’s UTRGV…well if you haven’t heard, this wasn’t just any double-double…Cockbrenner dropped 49 points on UTRGV on 20/22 shooting…yes 91% shooting. He was 2/2 from deep, 7/8 from the stripe. He had 11 boards, and added 3 blocks for good measure. He followed that up with a “mediocre” performance, dropping 24 & 7, with 3 blocks once again versus FDU. He was once again a perfect 1/1 from deep, and a perfect 5/5 from the stripe. 9/10 from the field to shoot 90% once again. For those keeping score at home, Cockbrenner’s average this week was:

36 .5/8.5/1.5 and 3 blocks per game, 0.5 fouls per game, shooting 90.6/100/92.3.

There was a decent chance Cockbrenner could’ve crossed the 40-pt threshold again in the FDU game, but given it was non-competitive, he only played 23 minutes (vs. 36 in the UTRGV game).

Don’t ask Cockbrenner how he does it. You don’t wanna know.

Never mind that UTRGV starts a 6’8” freshman from Mongolia at center, and spells him wit h a 6’9” Australian sophomore that is listed as a forward, not a center. Or that FDU has 1 player over 6’7”, and he only played 7 minutes…do not worry about that. Do not ask how Cockbrenner does what he does. Do not ask why every ref in America is afraid to call fouls against Cockbrenner. Pay no attention to the big man behind the curtain, that is none your concern.

This doofy looking mofo?!

Others receiving votes (total): Alex Karaban (3); Jacob Meyer (2); RJ Luis (2); Jerome Hunter (1); Kam Jones (1); idk (1); “Gus Bus” I assume Gus Yalden? lol (1)

Fan Pulse:
(average score of responses by fans of that team 1-10 scale)

UConn - 8

Marq - 8.5

Creighton - 6.5

St. John’s - 8.5

Xavier - 6

Providence - 5.5

Depaul - 6

Georgetown - 7

Villanova - 3

Butler - 2

Seton Hall - 1

A lot of confidence from 3 of the top-4 teams in the poll. Surprisingly tepid pulse from Creighton. Georgetown fans irrationally confident after beating ::checks notes:: Lehigh by 8 and Fairfield by 12…go off Hoya fans. Been awhile since you could feel this good about your team!

We’ll bring this to you weekly on Mondays, as my schedule permits. But hopefully every week this season. We may try and curate the list a little more, try to get something closer to equal participation by the fanbases, maybe 5 folks per fan base. If you’re interested and you have an account with more than 2,500 followers, a podcast, or a blog of your own, reach out and let me know your interest.

Better Know a Team: Villanova

Last Year’s Record: 18-16 (10-10)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 41 (31)
KenPom: 20 (51)

‘Nova needs less facepalming and better coaching from this man.

Coach: Kyle Neptune, 3rd Season
Traditionally, college basketball coaches got 4 years before the seat got hot, just enough time for a recruiting class to go through a full cycle. Even in the “one-and-done” era, since the 2006 rule change prohibited the top players from going straight outta HS to the NBA, most players would stay and develop for 2-4 years. In the year of our lord 2024, that traditional cycle has been flipped on its head. With the NCAA instituting the transfer portal, allowing 1 free transfer and now unlimited free transfers, the NIL boom and the bonus COVID year, the last few years made it easier than ever to turn a team around quickly. We saw it at places like ISU and KSU and Alabama, where coaches TJ Otzelberger, Jerome “cupcake lover” Tang and Nate “Making ‘bama a Basketball School” Oats promptly turned their teams around, and in the case of Oats and Otzelberger, turned their teams into perennial top-15 programs.

And then there’s Kyle Neptune. Kyle took over a team coming off a Final Four berth. Of course that team lost Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, as well as some role players and saw Justin Moore miss most of Neptune’s first year with injury. However, in Year 1 it’s undeniable that Neptune was left with a solid roster, and of course he was well-educated in the ways of Jay, serving under him as an assistant. In year 1 he returned Eric Dixon, Caleb Daniels (14 ppg that season), Brandon Slater, Justin Moore, Jordan Longino, and benefited from Jay Wright’s recruitment of Cam Whitmore and Mark Armstrong. That team went 17-17 (10-10), and Neptune mostly got a pass. The Moore injury left him without a real PG, and Jay’s late retirement left Neptune behind the 8-ball in the portal. Additionally, Nova’s NIL was not yet up to snuff. But even as Neptune got some grace from the fanbase, one couldn’t help but wonder “would Jay have made the tournament this year?”

Year 2 saw the return of Justine Moore. Also returning were Eric Dixon, Brendan Hausen, and Jordan Longino. Nova upped its NIL game, and Neptune got with the times and hit the portal…hard. Villanova snagged the #10 player in the portal per 247 Sports, Tyler Burton. They also added the #28 transfer, big athletic guard TJ Bamba, and wing man Hakim Hart, the #29 ranked transfer in 2023. They also added Lance Ware…

That was good for the 5th ranked transfer class in the country per 247 Sports. Expectations were high on the main line. Certainly on paper last season’s ‘nova squad was a tournament team. The coaches picked them 4th in the league (those same coaches also picked UConn 3rd, and we know how that turned out). But it wasn’t meant to be. The highly-touted newcomers failed to integrate into the roster, with only Bamba scoring double-digits (10.8 ppg), Justin Moore was not the old Justin Moore, and Mark Armstrong struggled at the point. About the only player who lived up to expectations was steady Eddie, Eric Dixon. The once proud program limped to an 18-16 (10-10) record, reaching rock bottom early in the year, going 0-3 vs. Penn, the other SJU and Drexel to finish 6th in the Philly Big 5—a statement that will never not be funny. Years from now we can have a college basketball/Big East bar trivia night and one of the questions should absolutely be “following the expansion to 6 teams, what was the first school to finish 6th in the Philly Big 5?”

However, the season was not without some high points. Villanova looked like the team we all thought they were in the Battle 4 Atlantis, knocking off Texas Tech, UNC and Memphis en route to winning the tournament. They won the ugliest game of basketball ever played in the shot clock era over Maryland at the Finn, 57-40(!). Peanut Chews sponsored that game for some reason, and I hope they didn’t pay too much. They damn near beat Kansas State in the Little Apple, forcing overtime and losing by 1 in a see-saw battle, they beat UCLA by 9 at Wells Fargo, beat Creighton in OT at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, and they got an always-tough road win at the Dunk vs. Providence (it’ll always be the Dunk to me goddamnit)

But there were plenty of embarrassments as well, such as losing at the Finn vs. St. John’s, getting run off the floor at MSG by SJU, losing in double OT to a bottom-dwelling Butler team, barely beating 3-29 DePaul in the BET, and ultimately getting bounced in the first round of the NIT by VCU. Such were the depths of this humiliation that there were rumblings that Neptune should be fired among the fan base, with some going as far as to threaten that their parents would not donate on the next 1842 day, forever begging the question what IS life, yo?

Of course Neptune wasn’t fired, it didn’t seem like the school ever gave serious consideration to that, and Neptune headed back to the portal to restock his squad once again. But in year two it really couldn’t be denied: Jay would’ve had that team in the tournament easily, and maybe even made some noise in March. All of that background is simply to say this is a big year for Kyle. In this day and age 4 years is no longer a guarantee, especially not at a proud program like Villanova. For Villanova, this season is all about Kyle Neptune. He once again has enough talent to return to the tournament, its time he delivers.

Rotation:

PG: Jhamir Brickus, (Gr.) “ 5’11” ” (OK buddy!) 188 lbs.
SG: Wooga Poplar, (Sr.) 6’5” 197 lbs.
SF: Jordan Longino, (Sr.) 6’5” 215 lbs.
PF: Eric Dixon, (Gr.) 6’8” 265 lbs.
C: Enoch Boakye, (Sr.) 6’11” 255 lbs.

Bench:
Tyler Perkins, (So.), 6’4” 212 lbs. (G)
Josiah Moseley, (Fr.) 6’6” 205 lbs. (F)
Nnanna Njoku, (R-Jr.) 6’9” 245 lbs. (C)
Kris Parker, (R-Fr.) 6’9” 201 lbs. (G/F)
Matthew Hodge, (Fr.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)
Malcolm Thomas, (Fr.) 6’8” 218 lbs. (F)
Jordann Dumont (R-Fr.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)
Sasha Gavalyugov, (Fr) 6’2” 175 lbs (G)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/12, 5pm, CBS Sports Network - at the other SJU
11/19, 7pm, Peacock - vs. UPenn (at the Finn)
12/7, TBD, TBD - Big Five Classic vs. Drexel, La Salle or Temple

That’s it. Villanova just needs to avoid coming in 6th in the Big 5 again, for the good of the conference.

Ok, ok, they also have:
11/15, 5pm, TBD - vs. UVa (N) - a game that has lost some luster following Tony Bennett’s shock retirement.
11/24, 1pm, ESPN - vs. Maryland (N) - Willard back in the Rock!
12/3, 6:30pm, FS1 - vs. Cincinnati (BIG East-Big12 Battle)

All in all a very, very soft schedule, leaving ‘nova little margin for error in the non-conference. Even looking backwards through the lens of “well they expected UVa to be good,” that’s still only 3 high majors, one of which is mediocre, at best.

What’s Old: Eric Dixon. Literally. Guy is so old he’s chasing early bird specials at the local Applebee’s. Of course, despite his advanced age, Dixon remains a stellar collegiate ball player, making up for his lack of size and lack of athleticism with crafty post moves and precision shooting.

He’s been one of the best players in the conference the last 2 years. In that span he averaged 31.1 minutes across 68 games, starting all of them, posting 16/6.6/1.5 on 47.8/35.9/82.9, for an eFG of 54%. He adds solid defense with a D-Rating of 100.9 and a DBPM of 1.7. Barring catastrophe, he’s a lock to be First Team All Big East, as he was voted preseason, and if ‘nova plays better than it has the last 2 seasons, he’s a dark horse for Big East Player of the Year. The fact that Dixon is a dark horse for conference player of the year is less about his talents than it is about the insane depth of high end talent in the league.

Joining Dixon in the backcourt, the only other holdover from the Jay Wright roster left on the main line (and frankly, it’s amazing there’s still 2 holdovers 3 seasons removed from Jay’s tenure) is senior Jordan Longino. Longino is a local product out of Germantown Academy. He was a 4* recruit, ranked 53 in the 247 Composite in the class of 2021. I usually don’t mention the high school pedigree of experienced college players, but in this case it’s worth reference because Longino has never quite lived up to that billing. He was lightly used his freshman year, but the last two seasons he’s played 54 games, notching 13 starts, posting 5.8/2.3/1.3 on 40.4/28.7/79.2. It’s worth noting his shooting did improve to 32.5% from deep and 83.3% from the stripe.

While several of the guys ahead of him in the rotation last year failed, fans certainly had loftier expectations for Longino, and his inability to step up exacerbated Villanova’s problems last season. Part of his problem is that he settles for perimeter shots too often, taking 48.1% of his FGA from deep last year per CBB Analytics, including 32.9% in above the break 3’s, on which he shot only 29.6%. He was an impressive 40% on corner 3’s, but he attempted less than 1 per game, 15.2% of his total shot attempts. His best bet is getting into the paint, where he shoots 52.9%, 90th percentile, but again only took 10.4% of his shots from that range. His at the rim FG% was 54%, only the 35th percentile. In other words, his best bet is to slash or cut and pull up for a mid-range in the paint, or even outside the paint, where he shoots 40%, 69th percentile. Villanova is going to need Longino to step up this year if they are to return to the tournament.

The last two returners are Nnanna Njoku and Jordann Dumont. Across 3 seasons on the main line Njoku has played in 24 games, averaging 3.6 mpg, and 0.8 ppg. He may carve out a small role this year, but let’s just move on.

Dumont was a 0* recruit in the class of 2023. It is unlikely he’ll be a contributor this year.

THAT’s the “5 foot, 11 inch” Brickus giving up “1 inch” to the 6-foot tall Foster Loyer

What’s New: Graduate Point Guard Jhamir Brickus makes the move from Philadelphia—La Salle to be exact—to suburbs to be the starting point guard for the Wildcats. Brickus had a breakout season for La Salle starting 33 games, playing 36.6 mpg, and posting 13.9/3.5/4.8, shooting 43.3/40/85.7. That free throw shooting certainly fits the ‘nova mold, and 40% from deep fits anyone’s mold, particularly at a decent 4.5 3-pt attempts per game. Add in almost 5 APG, and it’s clear to see why ‘nova is high on Brickus orchestrating this offense. No Villanova player has put up 4+ assists per game since Collin Gillespie put up 4.6 in 2020-21. The last 2 season’s ‘nova has sorely lacked a floor general. The experienced Brickus gives them just that.

Not Jhamir Brickus, but maybe ‘nova should retire the powder blue jerseys this year…

The downside? Clearly his defense. Let’s start with the physical limitations, Brickus is listed at a VERY generous 5’11”, but I heard the hosts of a prominent ‘nova podcast recently joking that he was really 5’8”. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. He’s also not the thickest or strongest looking guard. Just running down the list of team’s starting guards, the only other guards 6’ or less is 5’10” Sean Jones, who may or may not make it back from injury this season and shares the back court with 3 dudes 6’3” or taller, the 6’0” Deivon Smith, who shares a back court with guys that are 6’6”, 6’4”, & 6’4”, and Xavier PG tandem Dayvion McKnight and Trey Green who both come in at 6’0”.

Advanced metrics do not paint a better picture. With Brickus on the court, La So all of that leaves Villanova with some defensive shortcomings in the back court. He posted a 111.4 D-Rating last season, and is a career 109.3, his DBPM was -.4 last season, and -.03 for his career, including 3 straight negative DBPM figures. With Brickus off the floor, LaSalle posted a defense rating of 101.9, compared to 111.5 with Brickus on the floor. Given the size and quality of the guards in the Big East versus the A-10, Villanova will have to scheme a defense to mask some of Brickus’ deficiencies. At the very least the esteemed Ken Pomeroy believes in the Villanova defense, ranking the Wildcats the 14th best defense in the country, and even Torvik, who is not quite as high on Villanova as KenPom has the ‘cats clocking in as the 30th best defense preseason. Even in last year’s disappointing campaign Villanova’s defense was solid, ranking 10th in Torvik’s ADJDE and 13th in KenPom’s AdjD. Going back to his year at Fordham, his defense ranked 41st. Obviously those teams were not without their defensive flaws, so it’s entirely possible the much-maligned Neptune coaches his way around Brickus’ defensive limitations.

Brickus is joined in a surprisingly thin backcourt by Miami (Fl) transfer, Senior Wooga Poplar, 247 Sports’ 17th ranked transfer this year. On top of being a first-team member of any All-Name Team, Poplar is a proven commodity at the high major level, playing in and starting 29 games last season for Jim Larranaga’s disappointing Hurricanes squad, posting 13.1/4.8/2.1 on 42.6/38.5/86.4 shooting in 31 mpg. He was also a starter 2 years ago during Miami’s Final Four run, posting 8.4/3.3/1.5 in 23.5 minutes, on 47/37.5/86.7. His career eFG is 52.7%. Poplar’s size, strength and length also give him a pretty high floor on the defensive end, and he’s a really good on-ball defender. But the real headline here is his offense. Poplar projects to be ‘nova’s second leading scorer behind Eric Dixon. When you look for a “big 3” of scorers, it’s quite possible the Wildcats have theirs in Brickus, Poplar and Dixon.

As mentioned, the ‘nova backcourt is surprisingly thin, and is rounded out by sophomore transfer Tyler Perkins and Bulgarian freshman Aleksander Gavalyugov. Like his backcourt mate Brickus, Perkins joins the Wildcats from a fellow Big 5 school, in this case UPenn. Perkins was excellent as a freshman for the Quakers, and in most years could’ve been the Ivy League Rookie of the year had it not been for now-Georgetown guard Malik Mack’s excellent year at Harvard. Perkins posted 13.7/5.3/1.9 on 39.1/34.7/76.5, for an eFG of 46.6% in 29.8 mpg. However, as we saw last year at St. John’s, even experienced Ivy Legue ballers can struggle to make the jump to the BIG East. It took Jordan Dingle and Chris Ledlum 2/3rds of a season to really hit their stride. While Perkins will definitely have a role in the backcourt this season, I don’t think I would expect a high-level of production from him. However, he is a very nice building block piece for the next 2 seasons.

Gavalyugov is a 6’2” freshman out of Bulgaria. An NBA Gloval Academy product, Gavalyugov his a really good shooter, and comes in with substantial U18 Eurobasket experience. He’s also very crafty in the lane, using a variety of moves and spins to shake opponents free. He only needs a little bit of space to get his shot up, and has excellent quickness. At least one member of r/NBA_Draft thinks he’s a potential NBA player one day, and someone to keep an eye on. If his shooting is as advertised, he’ll definitely be able to carve out a role, but the learning curve can be steep with Euros.

In the front court transfer Enoch Boakye figures to carve out his fair share of minutes, particularly if Neptune is interested in getting minutes at the 4 for Eric Dixon. Boakye was a highly-touted recruit, ranking 31st in the class of 2021. Unfortunately for Mr. Boakye he made a fatal career era by committing to play for the other Hurley at Arizona St. Boakye played 50 games across 2 seasons in Tempe, where he posted an abysmal 1.5 & 2.4, with 1.2 blocks.

Last year the journeyman center found his way to Fresno State, where he posted 7.5 & 7.7, plus 2 blocks per game. He finally started to show why he was so highly touted out of HS. Depending on just how much they can get out of Boakye, he’s either a starter at the 5 alongside Dixon’s 4, or he’s the chief back up to Dixon be it with Dixon on the bench or Dixon playing some 4. For what it’s worth, with Dixon serving a suspension for participating in the Portsmouth invitational, Boakye started and played 27 minutes at center.

The Wildcats also add Kris Parker, a redshirt freshman out of Alabama. Kris was a 4* recruit coming out of high school, good for 99th in the Class of 2023. He red-shirted for Alabama last season. Parker is a bit of a wild card here. If he lives up to his impact he could be a really nice rotation player this season. If he does not, he could be a multi-year project , and frankly Neptune might not have enough time.

The wing and front court is rounded out by freshmen Josiah Moseley, Matthew Hodge, and Malcolm Thomas. From most likely to make an impact to least likely:

Josiah Moseley is a 6’6” 205 lbs forward from Texas. He’s a 4* ranked 73rd in 247’s class of 2024 composite rankings. Moseley is likely to be the primary back up to Jordan Longino at the 3. However, if Longino should struggle, Moseley will certainly have the opportunity to earn more minutes. In Villanova’s first game—a 75-63 victory over Lafayette without Eric Dixon—Moseley was the only freshman to crack the rotation, going 17 minutes and shooting a perfect 5-5 from the field for 10 points.

Matthew Hodge is a New Jersey forward ranked 82nd in the class of 2024. The Burner Ball depth charts have him as the starter at the 4. That does not feel right to me. As mentioned, I think Villanova plays a little larger this year with Dixon 4, at times, but when they play small with Dixon at the 5, Hodge can be the guy at 4, as Longino is simply not tall enough for the 4.

Malcolm Thomas was a 3* recruit, no. 206 in the class of 2024. He’s a 6’8” forward. He’s likely to be buried on the front court depth chart, and not likely to see regular minutes.

The Optimist’s Take: Kyle Neptune realizes he’s not Jay, but he can actually coach and he finally spreads his wings and hits his coaching stride as his own man, not “Jay Wright’s assistant.” The line-up meshes quickly. What appears like it will be a tight 8-man rotation—at least early in the year (Boakye, Dixon, Longino, Poplar, Brickus, Tyler Perkins, Jsoiah Moseley and Nnanna Njoku)—stays healthy and responds to Neptune’s coaching. Guys like Aleksander Gavalyugo and Kris Parker and Matthew Hodge develop into rotation pieces as the year drags on, giving ‘nova depth when it will need it most.

If Neptune’s coaching is on point, that is an 8-man rotation that can make the tournament. This roster isn’t as talented as last year’s ‘nova roster, but it is possible they have better results.

The Hater’s Take: Nova got absolutely abused in the paint last year. They ranked in the 5th percentile in both points in the paint and 2nd chance points per game. They managed only 2.4 blocks per game, while opponents scored 25.5 paint points per game, good for 96th percentile. All stats from CBB Analytics. Opponents meanwhile were in the 96th percentile in paint points and 88th percentile in 2nd chance points. Opponents posted 4 blocks per game to ‘nova’s 2.4.

Nova did little to truly address the issue. The Wildcats brought in Enoch Boayke from Fresno State, who grabbed 7.7 boards in just 22.7 mpg, good for 13.6 per 40. He can also provide some rim protection, putting up 1.2 blocks per game last year, 2.1 per40. However, I think there is definitely concern looking at the drop-off last season, as Boakye struggled against top tier competition, watching his O-Rating plummet from 104.7 to 90.1 and is OR% fall from 12.7 to 6.0. So you have to wonder how he can handle big men at this level. He had 3 or more fouls in 15/28 games last year, meaning foul trouble can be an issue for Boayke. With the lack of experienced depth in the front court, Boakye foul trouble will be a tough blow to ‘nova.

Meanwhile the defense struggles as guys like Brickus and Perkins are overmatched, the freshmen make freshmen mistakes, and Longino continues to play poor defense. In this scenario, Villanova would find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble come March.

Fan Pulse:

Putting on a brave face. Boldly attempting to cheer on another season of Kyle Neptune, even as it seems he may be a dead man walking. Talking themselves into a 5’9” point guard leading the way in the Big East. Definitely did not donate $50,000 on 1842 this year since Neptune is still the coach.

Bottom Line: This roster is significantly less talented than last year’s ‘nova squad. 3 seasons into his coaching career and Kyle Neptune has appeared to be going in the wrong direction. Do I think Jay Wright gets this team to an 8 or 9 seed? Almost certainly. Do I trust Kyle Neptune to do the same? No. I wouldn’t trust Neptune to babysit my pet rock based on his coaching skills.

Prediction: 17-14 (8-12), 7th place

Better Know a Team: Butler

Last Year’s Record: 18-13 (9-11)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 75 (57)
KenPom: 83 (61)

Coach: Thad Matta, 3rd season (this stint)
I genuinely fear for the man every time he has to come off the bench and hold a TO huddle on the floor. The man looks like he’s about to fall over. I apologize, I shouldn’t poke fun at someone’s medical issues, but it’s the first thing that comes to mind when I think of Matta in 2024-25. It’s almost unfathomable to believe he’s 17 years younger than Rick Pitino. And I know I’m getting old because when I saw Thad’s age my first reaction was “he’s only 57?!?! He’s still a young man! Too young to be moving like that.” Turning 40 in February is really fucking with my head, especially when my mental age is 23-year-old trust fund kid (I’ve earned all my cash, just the energy I bring on a daily basis).

Thad Matta doing his best Shaka Smart impression

The second thing I think of is Matta’s incredible resume. He’s won 7 conference tournament titles 1 in the Midwestern Collegiate Conference (who can forget the MCC, amirite?!), 2 in the A-10 with Xavier, and 4 in the B1G with Ohio State. He has 8 regular season titles, including 5 in the B1G with Ohio State. He’s been to the Final Four twice, including as runners-up in 2007 to juggernaut back-to-back Florida Gators squad under PC alum Billy Donovan.

If it wasn’t clear from that paragraph, I think the world of Thad Mata as a coach. If you’re having a conversation about the best coaches to never win a national title, I think Thad Matta is in the conversation, potentially even top-5 (Lou Carnesecca, Huggie Bear, and Mark Few probably my top-3 in some order, but I may be a little homer-ish on Louie).

That said, Thad hasn’t made a tournament in his last 4 seasons of coaching dating back to 2015-16 in Columbus. When you add in the optics described at the start of this section, you have to wonder just a little bit if Thad still has “it.” Personally, I think he does. His tenure at OSU only ended because of his health issues. He improved year over year in his 2 seasons at Buttler. His third year at Ohio St. he went to the national title game, winning 27 regular season games and the B1G tournament along the way. While I’d say a Final Four is an almost 0% chance, is this the year he breaks through and makes the tournament? Remains to be seen, but it wouldn’t be surprising.

Butler Blue III day dreaming of another Final Four…

Rotation:

PG: Kolby King, (Jr.) 6’2” 175 lbs.
SG: Finley Bizjack, (So.) 6’4” 195 lbs.
SF: Pierre Brooks, (Sr.) 6’6” 240 lbs.
PF: Jahmyl Telfort, (Gr.) 6’7” 225 lbs.
C: Andre Screen, (Gr.) 7’1” 255 lbs.

Bench:
Patrick McCaffery, (Gr.) 6’9” 212 lbs. (F)
Boden Kapke, (So.) 6’11” 255 lbs. (C)
Jamie Kaiser Jr., (So.) 6’6” 205 lbs. (G/F)
Landon Moore (Jr.) 6’3” 200 lbs. (G)
Evan Haywood (Fr.) 6’4” 190 lbs. (G)
Colt Langdon (R-Fr.) 6’7” 215 lbs. (F)
Augusto Cassia (So.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)

Big Non-Conference Games:

Arizona Tip-Off
11/28, 7pm, CBS Sports - vs. Northwestern (N)
11/29, TBD, CBS Sports - vs. Miss. St. or UNLV (N)

12/7, 5:30pm, ESPN2 - at Houston
Not sure how Butler drew the best team in the Big 12 for the BIG East Big 12 battle, but here we are.

12/14, 2:30pm, B1G Network - vs. Wisc. (Semi-Home)

What’s Old: Elite wing play. Butler returns its 2 leading scorers from a season ago, Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort. Brooks and Telfort is one of the best forward tandems in the league, probably second only to UConn’s one-two punch of McNeely and Karaban. Both Telfort and Brooks made the pre-season All-Big East Second Team. Let’s just let their stats do the talking:

Brooks 2023-24: 32.9 mpg 14.8/4.0/1.1 on 45.6/40.6/69.2, eFG 55.7%, TS 56.9%
Telfort 2023-24: 34.7 mpg 13.9/4.9/3.0 on 43.5/32.7/84.6, eFG 48%, TS 52%

What you have here is two elite wings that complement each other very nice. Brooks the shooter, Telfort more of a slasher who can make a shot when needed. They’ve both proven they can do it at this level, the offense will revolve around them, and there’s not much more that I can add.

There are 6 other returning players for Butler. At center, although only 2 of them saw time last season: Andre Screen and Finley Bizjack. Neither averaged more than 15 minutes. Screen is a 7’1” center who transferred into Butler from Bucknell in 2023. At Butler last year he played 12.9 mpg, posting a line of 5.2/4.5/0.4 pm 58/NA/59.3%. In his limited minutes, Screen generally held his own. However, Screen was rarely on the opposing team’s best big man, as Jalen Thomas got the starts and the lion’s share of the minutes at the 5, with fellow returnee Boden Kapke claiming a few minutes as well.

Jalen Thomas exhausted his eligibility, leaving just Screen and Kapke on the center depth chart. Kapke played just 7 mpg in 22 appearances last season, posting 2 & 2. Per 40 that translates too 11.7 & 9.9. So with more minutes, he should be able to contribute meaningfully on the offensive end. That said, this remains the biggest spot of weakness for Butler, with neither player having demonstrated the ability to truly contribute at the high major level with significant minutes. Center by committee a very real possibility with this duo. Another possibility at the 5 is 6’9” Patrick McCaffrey, more on that below

Junior Landon Moore, who transferred in 2023 from St. Francis (PA) is the only returnee, other than Brooks and Telfort, to have averaged over 15 mpg last season, posting 3.8/1.3/1.3 in 15.8 mpg on 38.1/37.3/75.8 shooting, with eFG of 47.1%. Per 40’s of 9.5/3.3/3.2 also don’t indicate he can be a nice rotation piece, but frankly given the lack of depth in the back court, Butler likely needs Moore to take a huge leap in year 2 with the Bulldogs.

Last, but certainly not least, Brazilian forward Augusto Cassia. The sophomore returns after averaging 0.6/0.9/0.1. That’s it. That’s the paragraph.

What’s New: WELCOME BACK MR. KING! St. John’s legend Kolby King has transferred in from Tulane by way of St. John’s, and figures to be the starting point guard in Indianapolis. King was criminally underutilized by MA during his time in Queens, logging just 7.7 mpg across 26 games.  When Pitino was hired, King decamped for Nawlins, where he became Tulane’s 5th leading scorer, playing starting 22 games for the Green Wave and Ron Hunter.

While seeing a player who suffered at the hands of MA get some redemption is heartwarming, the numbers…are good. Not great, but good. King scored an efficient 10.4/3.6/1.8 on 47.6/37.9/76.2, for an eFG of 56.1% in 27 mpg. That said, a lot is going to be asked of King in a very thin backcourt, including playing point guard. Of course Brooks can handle the ball some, and Landon Moore can come off the bench, but if this team is to make the NCAAT, King is going to have to develop into an quality distributor, something he was not asked to do at Tulane, where he was the tertiary ballhandler in a 3-guard lineup. His assists to turnover ratio last year was 1.8:1.3.

Fran and Patrick in happier times.

Patrick McCaffrey, of the Des Moines McCaffreys, has decided to leave the nest and spread his wings out from under his oppressive father’s thumb, and chose Thad Matta and the Butler Bulldogs. After taking a medical redshirt his first year at Iowa, McCaffery played in 121 games in four seasons, including 60 starts, averaging 21 mpg, 8.6/3.1/1.2 on 42.6/32.6/75 for an eFG of 48.7%. While not the most athletic, he’s definitely crafty, and finds ways to get near the rim. His three point shooting is good enough to keep defense from sagging off him on the perimeter, which could help open things up for the slashers like King and Telfort. The downside to his lack of athleticism is on the defensive end. He posted a 113.6 D-rating last year, 3rd worst on a shitastic defense that ranked 157 on KenPom. There may be some temptation to play him at the 5, but given his disturbing lack of defense, it might be unwise to put him in those situations.

The third and final transfer is Jamie Kaiser, Jr., a transfer from Maryland who played in 33 games for Kevin Willard last season, posting 4.4/2.0/0.2 on 26.9/26.5/77.8, for a horrific 36.3% eFG. At 6’6” 200 lbs. he’s built like a linebacker, so he can definitely provide a physical presence on the wing on the defensive end. He’s also got the pedigree, as he was a 4* recruit, 65th in the class of 2023. He’s reportedly a better shooter than his numbers last year would let you believe. He’s not the most athletic or the quickest, but he manages.

The Dime Store Dunlap

Freshman Colt Langdon was originally class of 2025, but reclassified in August to join the Bulldogs this season. He gives trailer park Brady Dunlap vibes. When Brady gets his heart broken one day and goes through his bad boy phase, he’ll look like Colt Langdon. He clocks in at 151 in the class of 2024, a 3*. A year of seasoning in practice will do him well, which is why it’s already been announced he will redshirt. A good piece for the future nonetheless.

Joining Colt in the class of 2024 is Evan Haywood, a 6’4” guard from Indianapolis. He is a 3*, ranked 286th in the class of 2024. In a thin back court there’s definitely a chance he gets minutes, but I wouldn’t count on it.

The Optimist’s Take: Telfort and Brooks elevate their games even further, and carry the team to the point of 40 points per game. Kolby King seamlessly steps into a full-time PG role, keeps Brooks and Telfort fed and happy, and contributes 10 or so points of his own, with 5 or 6 assists. Thad Matta still has some magic under that bald dome of his, add in a little Hinkle magic, and this is a team that could easily compete for a berth.

The Hater’s Take: Kolby King is NOT ready, he turns the ball over a ton, and you have to lean on Landon Moore and Pierre Brooks for ballhandling. Defensive liabilities at the 5, and to a lesser extent the 4, leave Butler unable to keep up offensively with the better teams in the league. Thinness in the back court could also bite them in the ass if King isn’t ready to be a full-time PG, their guards get in foul trouble, or god forbid they suffer an injury, even a brief one.

Fan Pulse:

I dunno. Whatever it is, it is midwestern nice.

Bottom Line: If there is one team I think can upset a lot of people’s projections for this league, it’s Butler. If the offense clicks, they’ll steal a couple games from the top of the league. But this league can be hell on guards and bigs. And Butler comes in with a PG who has never played full-time point and a thin, and defensively soft front court. To me, that sounds like a recipe for a bottom four finish. I do think this is a team that might improve as the year goes on, and given his history of winning conference championships

Prediction: 14-17 (6-14)

Better Know a Team: Seton Hall

Last Year’s Record: 25-12 (13-7), egregiously snubbed from the NCAAT; NIT Champions

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 90 (38)
KenPom: 91 (50)

Coach: Shaheen Holloway, 3rd Season
Sha is an incredible coach. He has repeatedly demonstrated he can “do more with less,” a phrase I am sure Pirates fans are sick of already. If there’s one reason to feel optimistic in South Orange, it is the head coach. There’s a reason he was discussed for some high major vacancies this off-season, going so far as to interview with Louisville.

Unfortunately for Hall fans, Sha is also smart enough to know that eventually “doing more with less” will bite you in the ass. And given the Hall’s NIL situation, Sha (or the next Seton Hall coach) will be left doing more with less for the foreseeable future. So it’s entirely possible Sha bolts sooner, rather than later, especially if he has another year where his Pirates outperform expectations. I would enjoy it while you can Pirates faithful.

A mild reaction from the always animated and intense Holloway.

Sha has the energy of your local gym rat hardo. The type of guy who’s going to set the hardest picks imaginable in your pick-up game. The kinda guy who can’t ever play at 75%, even in a pick up game. The man has the intensity of a prize fighter walking to the ring…except he carries himself that way 24/7, if I saw him smile in and around a basketball game it would be the first time, and he does it all with a voice so off-putting it would make Patrick Mahomes blush. I honestly don’t know how he commands the respect of a team with a voice like that. Last season started with Sha and Wagner head coach Donald Copeland getting into it on the handshake line after a 21-point Pirates win, an altercation in which Sha shoved Copleand’s hand outta the way rather than shake it. Of course the season ended with Sha hoisting the NIT trophy, so perhaps there’s something to be said for his intensity.

Sha makes his living with defense. Going back to his cinderella St. Peter’s team, which made its run on the back of a defense that ranked 25 in KenPom’s final ranking, giving up just 93 points per 100 possessions. That defense has carried over to Seton Hall, resulting in defenses ranked 20 & 33.

Last season, Sha also had his best offense ever behind Kadary Richmond, Al-Amir Dawes and Dre Davis. Richmond and Davis transferred to St. John’s and Ole Miss, respectively, while Dawes graduated. Thier offense accounted for 61% of the team’s 73.8 points per game. This was good for the 70th ranked KenPom offense. By contrast, the defense was ranked 33rd by KenPom.

In other words, we know the defense will be there on any Sha coached team. He’s had 3 straight top-35 defenses dating back to his last year at St. Peter’s, and was 61st & 80th in 2020-21 and 2019-20, respectively. Only his first year at St. Peter’s was a bad defense, which is clearly forgivable.

The real question is what can Sha get out of this roster offensively.

Rotation:

PG: Dylan Addae-Wusu, (Sr.) 6’4” 215 lbs.
SG: Garwey Dual, (So.) 6’5” 190 lbs.
SF: Scotty Middleton, (So.) 6’7” 190 lbs.
PF: Prince Aligbe, (Jr.) 6’7” 225 lbs.
C: Yacine Toumi, (Sr.) 6’10” 210 lbs.

Bench:
Chaunce Jenkins, (Sr.) 6’4” 185 lbs (G)
Isaiah Coleman, (So.) 6’5” 180 lbs (G/F)
Gus Yalden, (R-Fr.) 6’9” 245 lbs. (C)
Zion Harmon, (Jr.) 6’0” 185 lbs. (G)
Emmanuel Okorafor, (Jr.) 6’9” 220 lbs. (C)
Godswill Erheriene, (Fr.) 6’9” 225 lbs. (C)
Jahseem Felton, (Fr.) 6’5” 175 lbs. (G)
Assane Mbaye, (Fr.) 7’3” 190 lbs. (C)

Big Non-Conference Games:

Last season the Pirates did themselves no favors in the non-conference schedule, going 1-4 versus high major competition with losses to: USC (N), Iowa (N), Baylor (A), Rutgers (H) and a win vs. Missouri in Kansas City (technically neutral site). The only one of those teams to make the NCAAT was Baylor.

The Charleston Classic:
11/21, 5pm, ESPN2 - vs. VCU
11/22, TBD, TBD - vs. Vanderbilt or Nevada
11/24, TBD, TBD - vs. Miami, Drake, Ok. St. or FAU

Not an elite field by any stretch. But Miami, Nevada, and VCU all figure to be in the tournament conversation in March. I hope my Pirate friends enjoy Charleston as much as I did!

12/8, 12noon, FS1 - vs. Oklahoma St.
12/14, TBD, TBD - at Rutgers

Not the best OOC slate. But the filler is higher quality than many others: St. Peter’s, Fordham, Hofstra, and Wagner is a pretty solid season-opening stretch, even though they’re not “big” games.

What’s Old: The coach, and his ability to implement elite defensive schemes. As long as Hall has Sha, they will always have a pretty high floor thanks to the defense alone, and can break through for big years when the offense clicks as well.

The most important returner is erstwhile Johnnie Dylan Addae-Wusu. It seems possible, even likely that Addae-Wusu will be asked to run the point this season. Last year he put up 8.6/5.3/2.2 in 32 minutes per game. As someone who has seen a lot of Addae-Wusu given to his 3 years at St. John’s, he is definitely a questionable ball handler. He averages almost 2 TOs per game, including 1.8 last year when he was, at best, the 3rd ball-handling option Behind Kadary and Dawes.

On the plus side, Dylan is built like a defensive lineman. As a defender he is not the guy you want to see turning a corner with a full head of steam towards the basket. He will steamroll you and draw the foul as you shuffle your feet in fear. Per CBB Analytics, Dylan Addae-Wusu was in the 88th percentile for shot attempts at the rim, accounting for 40% of his shots. He uses his size very well to create space and a lane to drive. However, across the board, including at the rim, Addae-Wusu’s shooting leaves much to be desired, posting only a 45.5% eFG, 17th percentile in the country.

Not to continue harping on it, but in 62 minutes last year when Davis, Dawes and Richmond were not on the floor, Seton Hall posted a 98.7 O-rating and a 22% TO rate, down from full team figures of 110 and 15.8% respectively. Those are the shoes that need to be filled by Addae-Wusu and the rest of the Pirates.

Isaiah Coleman is the second biggest returner. As a true freshman last year Coleman came in as a 4* ranked 114th in the 2023 class. He posted 5.4/2.6/0.5 in 18 mpg. On a per-40 basis his slash line was 11.9/5.6/1.2. Coleman will be a key rotation piece, potentially 6th man potential. How big of a jump Coleman can take, especially offensively, will be a big key for this team. Regardless of taking a jump on offense, Coleman is a strong defender, using his size, length and athleticism to clog lanes.

Coleman also needs to provide more consistency on the offensive end. He is prone to streaks. From January 24 to February 14 last year, a 6 game span, Coleman shot 61.1% from the field on 36 shots. The next game he did not attempt a shot in 10 minutes, followed by a 6-game stretch from the end of the regular season through the NIT game vs. the Other SJU where he shot 12% from the field on 17 shot attempts. With more minutes and a sophomore jump, Coleman can easily score double-digit points per game and contribute on the glass.

The Hall’s curtains standing at the ready during a recent Devils game.

The Prudential Center Curtains! Sources tell me they’re in position and ready for Hall games.

Also Me, back at the Rock, after swearing I wouldn’t attend another game there following last season’s debacle. What can I say? I just can’t quit you Newark…

The final returnee is David Tubek. Tubek was a non-factor last season, playing in only 16 games, with a slash line of 0.8/0.8/0.1. His per-40 slash line is just 6/6/0.5. In other words, I wouldn’t expect much from Tubek this season. Tubek was the 280th ranked 3* recruit in the 247Sports Composite Ranking, so it’s not surprising that he wouldn’t contribute much.

What’s New: Seton Hall had many gaping holes to fill this off-season, and one of those holes was center, with Jaden Bediako graduating and Elijah Hutchins-Everett transferring to James Madison. Bediako was a solid piece for Sha putting up 8 & 7, along with solid defense that included 1.6 blocks per game. To fill the front-court void, Sha brought in a quartet of forwards and centers from the portal: Prince Aligbe, Gus Yalden, Yacine Toumi, and Emmanuel Okorafor. They’re joined by freshmen Godswill Erheriene and Assane Mbaye.

One of this group needs to fill the void. Prince Aligbe was a 4* in the class of 2022, ranked 127th nationally in the 247Sports Composite. He appeared in 62 games across 2 seasons in Chestnut Hill, but seeing 19.7 minutes per game, he posted a slash line of 5.3/3.8/0.6. He also regressed slightly year one to year two, scoring 1.5 ppg less and 1 board less as a sophomore. He’ll need to take a sizable leap to fill the void, but his BC stats profile similarly to Bediako, who posted 5.2/4.8/.6 in 18 mpg in 4 seasons at Santa Clara. Of Course Bediako was predominantly a 5, and Aligbe is a 4, which is good because Aligbe doesn’t offer any real rim protection the way Bediako did.

Gus Yalden redshirted last season in Wisconsin. Some off-the-court issues likely caused him to work his way out of any chance at playing last season, as he got injured in a scooter accident, cited for underage drinking and for possession of marijuana. Perhaps he can be a future guest on the On High podcast, it is legal in NJ after all, and the NCAA no longer tests for it. Gus, if you’re reading this, hit me up on Twitter. DMs open @frankingeneral.

Yalden was a 4* in the class of 2023, coming in at 128th nationally. He seemed poised to be the next corn-fed white big to play at a B1G school when he enrolled at Wisconsin out of La Lumiere School, a national powerhouse prep program that has produced Brian Bowen, Tyger Campbell, Jeremy Fears, Jaden Ivey, Jaren Jackson, Jordan Poole, Jeremy Sochan, JJ Starling, and more in recent history. They’ve also produced the hilarious Jim Gaffigan and the decidedly less hilarious Chief Justice John Roberts.

Unfortunately for Yalden, it didn’t work out at Wisconsin. Hall picks up a high-quality redshirt freshman with good post moves. Whether he is ready to contribute at a Big East level in year 1 remains to be seen. However, he is an excellent building block piece who still has all 4 years of his eligibility in front of him.

Next up, Yacine Toumi. Toumi started his career at Little Rock, where he played just 7 games. Could not find any info on if this was the coach’s plan, or if he was injured. He sat out 2021-22, lending credence to the idea he was injured. He’s played the last 2 seasons at Evansville, where he started 63 games, playing 25 mpg, posting a slash of 10.6/6.1/1.4. The rebounding definitely jumps off the page.

Toumi is athletic and active, frequently cutting to the hoop for layups and dunks. He’s not afraid to pull-up and hit a mid-range as well. He looks to be better as a 4, as he seems to like to cut off-the-wing. At 6’10” he’s the right size for Big East level, but he appears a little slow and it’s not likely that he can create off the dribble for himself. That said, he seems like a pretty reasonable facsimile of Bediako. He also should have no problem translating to the Big East, in 11 games vs. Tier A&B competition last season he posted nearly identical O-Rating, eFG and shooting percentage figures to his overall numbers, per KenPom.

Emmanuel Okorafor—gonna be very difficult for me not to call him Okafor all year— is a 6’9” junior transferring from Louisville. He was an unrated prospect in the class of 2022 out of NBA Academy Africa. Okorafor couldn’t get off the bench the last 2 seasons, averaging just 8.5 minutes in 25 appearances total, posting a slash of 2.8/2.2/0.1, and a per40 of 13.8/12.4/0.3. The per 40 numbers definitely give you some hope that Okorafor can be a contributor, but it’s not something that should be counted on this season.

The front court transfers are joined by two freshmen: Godswill Erheriene and Assane Mbaye. Godswill is the better of the 2, a 3 star out of LuHi, the respected prep program on Long Island. He held offers from Ga. Tech, Maryland, Bonnies, St. John’s, Texas Tech, and USC. There’s a good chance he is undervalued at 153 in the 247Sports Composite, being overshadowed by the likes of VJ Edgecombe, Kiyan Anthony, and the Mingo brothers. This could be a really good find for Seton Hall, both this year—high level prep players tend to be farther along than their peers at less prestigious programs—and in the future as he develops.

Mbaye is a 7’2” 190-pound string bean of a center out of The Patrick School in Seton Hall’s backyard. He was unrated as a recruit, and he’ll need to add weight to his lanky frame in order to compete in the Big East. Wouldn’t expect him to contribute, and a red shirt is a definite possibility.

The back court and wing see 4 newcomers, headlined by former Friar Garwey Dual. Dual started 6 games, and appeared in 33 total, averaging 18.5 mpg, with a slash of 3.3/1.3/1.9, and an abysmal 39% eFG, as the Friars, like the Pirates, got snubbed from the NCAA tournament by the atrocious committee. Dual came into Providence highly touted, as 4* ranked 47th in the class of 2023. He never quite lived up to the hype at Providence. One thing he did do at a high level was defend. Providence had the 18th best defense in the country per KenPom last season, and Dual played his role, posting a 3.7 DBPM. He will give Sha a long, athletic, pesky guard that defend multiple positions.

Chaunce Jenkins comes in with a lot of expectations as a fifth year player with top mid-major experience. Jenkins did not produce much at Wichita State his first two years, but he broke out following his transfer to Old Dominion, winning All Sun Belt honors both seasons with the Monarchs. In two years at ODU Jenkins played in 86 games, starting 48, going for 31.6 mpg and a slash of 14.7/3.6/2.8, with a steal a game for good measure.

For a guard, he’s not much of a shooter, going 32.7% from deep on 2.8 attempts per game, indicating he can likely make the open ones, but he’s definitely not “a shooter,” then again neither was Dre Davis coming in, and he shot 37% on 5 attempts per game in his Seton Hall career, so perhaps Sha believes he can fix Jenkins’ shot as well. And Pirate fans should hope he does, because the closest thing the Hall has to a big time, proven high major scorer on this roster is Addae-Wusu

Scotty Middleton might be the most intriguing addition. A 6’6” forward out of Sunrise Christian, he was 50th in the country in the class of 2023, committing to DePaul Blue Demons head coach Chris Holtmann, when Holtmann was still at Ohio State. Following the Holtmann firing, Middleton played noticeably better:

Pre-Firing: 15 mpg, 3.7/1.4/0.7, 0.2 steals, eFG of 46%
Post-FIring: 17 mpg, 6.3/1.6/0.5, with 1 steal, on eFG of 65%

Whether that was Diebler or just a young kid finding his rhythm late in his freshmen year, the evidence is there that Middleton can compete at this level. As with Jenkins, the Pirates are desperately going to need Middleton to be a big time scorer to make up for the lost production.

Rounding out the back court transfers is Zion Harmon, a 6’0'“ guard out of Bethune-Cookman. Zion is an elite FT shooter, clocking in at 93% last season, and he got to the line 4 times per game. In 2 years for Bethune-Cookman he put up 14.1/2.1/3.4, plus 1.3 steals per game. His shooting leaves much to be desired, going 39%/30% for his career, an eFG of 46%. In a small sample size, his tier A&B figures on KenPom show a small drop-off, but it is possible he can translate to this level. However, it’s most likely that he’ll need a year at Hall before he can become a consistent contributor at this level.

Finally, the last backcourt player is true freshman Jahseem Felton. Felton is a 6’5” guard out of Combine Academy. He’s a 3* ranked 170th in the class of 2024. He brings the prototypical size that Sha loves in his guards, but it would be asking a lot for him to contribute this year, and he’ll likely be buried at the bottom of the guard depth chart.

The Optimist’s Take: The defense will be the typical elite defense that Sha always coaches. Some combination of Jenkins/Middleton/Coleman/Wusu replace the scoring that Hall’s big 3 put up last year (45+ ppg combined). Enough of the guys with question marks pan out. If all of that goes right, with Sha at the helm, they could sneak into the tournament as they should have last year.

The Hater’s Take: The team has too many questions:

• Toumi, Jenkins & Harmon - do they translate to this level

• Dual - can he up his game offensively

• Middleton - can he take a step up from what he did down the stretch for OSU

• Aligbe - can he improve upon his form at BC

• Coleman & Wusu - can they step up to fill the void offensively as the 2 guys who have played a year under Sha already

• Yalden & Godswill - can these freshmen contribute right away?

The hater in me says too many of these questions will be answered in the negative. The roster is just “meh.” There aren’t any stars, or even stars in the making. The roster a bunch of JAGs. They play their traditionally elite defense, but struggle to score, making it difficult to win games.

Fan Pulse:

Smug superiority to their neighbors across the river after a few years of dominance. An unfailing belief that because Sha has overachieved the last 2 seasons, he will overachieve every season. Still counting their lucky blessings someone was dumb enough to hire Willard, allowing them to hire Sha.

Bottom Line: On paper, this honestly might be the least talented roster in the Big East. DePaul has guys who can shoot and a clear identity (not that Hall doesn’t, their identity is defense), Georgetown has a good amount of talent, they’re just very young. This roster IS just a bunch of JAGs. It’s very unclear to me, and unlikely in my opinion, that enough of them step up to fill the offensive void left by Davis, Dawes, and Richmond.

One of the key differences between this crop of incoming players and last year’s is that last year you had Davis returning for year 2, an experience high major player before he got to Hall. You had Dawes who was a proven scorer at Clemson before coming in, and also entering his 2nd season last year. There is not a single guy on this roster that has demonstrated they can score on that level except the 9 games Middleton looked good at the end of last season. And even that looked more like “nice contributor” than “alpha scorer.”

Prediction: 13-18 (5-15), 9th Place

Better Know a Team: DePaul Blue Demons

Last Year’s Record: 3-29 (0-20)

Preseason Metrics (last season finish):
Torvik: 118
KenPom: 163

Coach: Chris Holtmann, 1st Season.
Ding dong the Stubbs era is mercifully dead. After the Leitao era—which once saw Leitao somehow miss the NCAAT with a team that included future NBA players Paul Reed and Max Strus and future National Champion Jalen Coleman-Lands—which ended with the ‘mons limping to the end of the 2020-21 season with a 5-14 (2-13) record with a team that featured future NBA player Javon Freeman-Liberty and future Final Four starter Charlie Moore (at Miami (FL)), DeWayne Peevy had seen enough, and he made the call to Dana Altman’s bag man at Oregon, Tony “Stubbs” Stubblefield.

Pictured: The 3 Saviors of DePaul Basketball

It seems like just yesterday the Stubbs era started with so much promise, as he rode JFL and future traitor David Jones to a respectable 15-16 (6-14) record, good for a 103 KenPom (just the 3 sub-110 KP since 2008), with wins vs. Rutgers, at Louisville, vs. #20 Seton Hall, at #21 Xavier, and vs. Marquette. Things were looking up. As seen above, the program had plenty of talent coming through. Clearly the facilities and the venerable Second City were a draw. DePaul just needed a coach, and it looked like maybe they had found him…

Alas it was not meant to be. As it turns out, Stubbs is just a bag man. And that’s OK. He is not a basketball coach. He followed-up that promising first season with a 10-23 (3-17) season, good for a KP of 135, and put the exclamation point on his downfall, leading DePaul to a 3-29 (0-20) season last year, good for what I believe to be the lowest high-major KenPom ranking of all-time, 304. In the KenPom era (beginning in 1997) DePaul’s previous low was 234 under Joey Meyer in 1997, when they were still in CUSA. That was also the only other time in that stretch that they had only 3 wins. The best player Stubbs was able to land…I don’t even know, let’s just say Da’Sean Nelson cause I think it’ll make everyone happy. While the Leitao era was bad, the Stubbs era was catastrophic, and sadly took the Demons to new lows.

But sometimes you gotta hit rock bottom before you can pull yourself up…

Enter Chris Holtmann. Chris is a legitimate basketball coach, highly experienced, and really knows the game. He is a far cry from the Bagman. Holtmann is a perfect fit for the Blue Demons in this writer’s humble opinion. He has the experience. He knows the Big East, putting up 3 straight 20+ win seasons at Butler, and a Sweet 16 before getting the Ohio St. gig. As with many big football schools, patience was not the strong suit in Columbus, and some bad luck hurt Holtmann along the way, as his best team per KenPom was in 2019-20, coming in at 8th, and looked poised to make some noise from the 4-6 seed line range. The other 4 of his first 5 seasons at Ohio St. saw him make the tournament and never make the second weekend. One middling 16-19 (5-15) season in 2022-23 and he was on the hot seat in 2023-24. Ohio St. opened league play 4-10, Holtmann was fired, Ohio St. slapped the interim tag on assistant Jake Diebler who put up an 8-3 record the rest of the way, making the NIT quarterfinals, enough to land him the permanent job.

Holtmann is someone who knows the BIG East from his time at Buttler. While this may anger some Buttler fans, I think the two jobs are fairly similar. Smaller program. Smaller brand (although Buttler was still riding the high of the Stevens era when Holtmann took over). Less resources. Requires a lot of energy and a holistic approach to success. Which is why I think the Holtmann era will go well for the ‘mons.

Rotation:

PG: Conor Enright (Jr.), 6’1” 180 lbs.
SG: Jacob Meyer (So.), 6’2” 195 lbs.
SF: Isaiah Rivera (Sr.), 6’5” 210 lbs.
PF: JJ Traynor (Gr.), 6’8” 190 lbs.
C: David Skogman (Gr.), 6’10” 235 lbs.

Bench:
Layden Blocker (So.), 6’2” 175 lbs. (G)
David Thomas (so.), 6’2” 195 lbs. (G)
Troy D’Amico (Gr.), 6’7” 210 lbs. (F)
NJ Benson (Jr.), 6’8” 225 lbs. (C)
CJ Gunn (Jr.), 6’6” 198 lbs. (F)
Sekou Konneh (Fr.) 6’9” 180 lbs (F)
Chris Riddle (Fr.) 6’5” 185 lbs (G)

Big Non-Conference Games:

12/4, 8pm, ESPNU - at Texas Tech
12/21, 3pm, B1G Network - at Northwestern

Two big road games for the ‘mons in the non-conference slate. Winning in Lubbock is a tall order, but that game vs. Northwestern is very winnable. These are the types of games DePaul needs to win this year for the good of the conference. I think they’ll get that win at their suburban rivals. They also have some quality mid-majors on the schedule, with Duquesne and Wichita State coming to Wintrust.

What’s Old: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

What’s New: ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING. We discussed the head coach above. The ‘mons open the season with 12 new scholarship players, and 1 open scholarship. 10 transfers, and 2 freshmen. If there’s one thing about this roster that pops, it’s the shooting. Jacob Meyer, a sophomore transfer from Coastal Carolina shot 40% from 3 last year. Troy D’Amico shot 37% in 3 years as a Saluki. David Thomas shot 40% for Mercer and came on late, scoring 17 ppg on 50/45/80 shooting down the stretch and through the SoCon tournament. CJ Gunn shot 34% on limited reps in the B1G. JJ Traynor shot 37% for a bad Louisville squad. Isaiah Rivera is a 40% shooter across 3 seasons at Colorado St. and 1 at UIC. David Skogman, the starting 5, can really stretch the floor, shooting 47% from 3 last year on 4 attempts per game. At 6’10” he should create some matchup problems on offense. And of course Conor Enright shot lights out for Drake during their stellar season last year, posting 42% on 3 attempts per game.

Rounding out the likely rotation are the only 2 non-shooters in the rotation: NJ Benson and Layden Blocker. Benson is a PF from Missouri State. He shot 63% from the field (all 2’s, no 3-pt attempts), putting up 9 & 8, and adding in a block and a half in just 22 mpg. He’ll be asked to fill in as an undersized 5 when Skogman heads to the bench. Nelson will also look to be the ying to Skogman’s yang, picking up Skogman’s slack on defense. That said, he is undersized for the 5, which could create issues in a Big East that features some high quality big men.

A lot of DePaul’s hopes will ride on Blocker’s athletic shoulders.

Layden Blocker is the most intriguing piece on the roster. Blocker averaged 13 mpg in 27 games, with 5 starts for an Arkansas team that massively underachieved amid rumors of locker room strife. 247 Sports’ composite ranking had him 35th in the class of 2023. He’s immensely talented, is the most athletic guy on the roster, and certainly has the highest upside of anyone on this roster. He’s also likely to be one of the better defenders on this roster, averaging 2 steals and 5 boards per 40 minutes. Calling him a “non-shooter” is probably a bit harsh. He’s not going to be a lights out shooter, but I think he will shoot better than the 12% from deep that he shot last year.

Holtmann also added two HS recruits, both 3-stars, neither of whom are likely to contribute this year. Neither player had much high-major interest, although PF Sekou Konneh did take a visit to Louisville. Given the lack of depth in the front court, it’s certainly possible Konneh sees some time this year, but big minutes would be surprising. SF Chris Riddle held offers from Illinois and Texas Tech, but neither were particularly serious in their pursuit. It’ll be interesting to see if these guys are fringe high major players, and if so, whether Holtmann can develop them into contributors in subsequent years or if we see them transfer down in competition next off-season.

Frankly, given where DePaul was, needing a whole new roster, and the limited resources on hand at this moment, it’s not surprising that the roster is lacking in high-end talent. However, it’s clear to see what Holtmann was thinking , and he put together a coherent, if flawed, roster. The clear plan for Holtmann’s ‘mons: “we don’t have the athletes, but we’ll try to shoot you to death.” In other words, Make DePaul Fun Again! #MDFA. I picture the whole season looking something like that time that Max Strus murdered whatever slim hope SJU had of a tournament bid by shooting something like 18/24 from deep (don’t fact check that, that’s how I remember it. That’s my truth. I don’t care what your “numbers” say).

The thing I like most about this roster is that despite having 10 Transfers, this team is young. Holtmann was a pretty good player developer at Ohio St., helping guys like EJ Liddell and others improve year over year. Six of the 10 transfers on this roster are eligible to return next year: Blocker, Enright, Meyer, Gunn, Thomas, and Benson. The odds of keeping all of them is slim in this day and age, but if you can keep and develop 3-4 of them, you have a nice core to build around. Add in a couple of quality transfers—particularly defensive guys—and suddenly this is a team that could make waves in 2025-26.

The Optimist’s Take: The shooting and offense translates to the Big East for those making a jump. Layden Blocker lives up to the potential of a top-40 player out of HS, and DePaul wins a bunch of games of the 95-90 variety, climbing into the top-7 in the Big East.

The Hater’s Take: This is still DePaul, the lack of high-end talent kills them, the shooting regresses for players making a jump up in competition, and the defense is every bit as bad as we expect it to be. I mean just look at these abysmal 2023-24 D-Ratings per Sports Reference, worst to best, 100 is average, lower numbers are better for defense:

Traynor - 115.4
Meyer - 111.7
Thomas - 111.6
Blocker - 110.9
Gunn - 107.7
D’Amico - 107.3
Skogman - 106.2
Rivera - 105.5
Enright - 101.9
Benson - 98.0

For those keeping track at home that’s 1 above-average defender (Benson) and one only slightly below average (Enright), and the rest are a mess. Holtmann’s best teams have all been great defensively. Of his 3 best teams at Ohio State , plus his Butler Sweet 16 team, the worst defensive figure was 23 in Holtmann’s first year at Ohio St. It will be very hard to replicate that defense this year, even though I think Holtmann is a very good coach. They simply don’t have the defensive horses.

So if we know the defense will be lackluster, if DePaul’s offensive talent doesn’t click, it could be another long year for DePaul.

Fan Pulse:

“DePaul is a work in progress. They have some pieces that if you sleep on them will hurt you big on the right night. They’re not going to be a pushover by any means but remain a verifiable big away from making real noise. Offensively they’re going to challenge teams because they can shoot from anywhere on the floor. Defensively they have holes that can be taken advantage of, namely in the paint. That said, DePaul is on their way to being on their way-they win a few they shouldn’t and could lose a couple they should win. But in a close game, they’ll definitely fight to the end.” - John Maniantis (@dibsemeritus on Twitter; host of The DePaud podcast)

Bottom Line: This blogger believes in the DePaul renaissance. I’m rooting for the DePaul renaissance. I think the DePaul renaissance happens under Chris Holtmann…

…it just won’t be this year. DePaul will be 1000% better. But sadly, that says more about last seasons depressing results, than the success they’ll see under Holtmann this year. The ‘mons will be the quintessential frisky team. When the shooting is at its best, they’ll hang with almost anyone. When the shooting isn’t there, they’ll struggle offensively due to a lack of athleticism. They’ll struggle defensively whether the shooting is on or not.

Prediction: 10th Place, 14-17 (5-15)

Better Know a Team: Georgetown Hoyas

Last Year’s Record: 9-23 (2-18)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 103 (173)
KenPom: 88 (192)

“I wonder what Rosie is up to right now?”

Coach: Ed Cooley, 2nd Season
What can we say about Ed Cooley? Guy had an eventful year+. At this blog, we believe the rumors. The man got busted in an affair and his wife forced him outta Providence. From there he wound up at Georgetown, claiming it was a better job than Providence, which is news to any college basketball fan under the age of 30. I mean look at that image, and tell me that’s not a man who checked out.

“Man this team sucks!”

When not looking like he’d rather be back in the Dunk, or at least anywhere but Cap One arena, Cooley was lecturing other athletics coaches with far more success than he’s had, recycling lines from his PC introductory presser, getting into it with Seton Hall fans reminding them he’s “rich as a mother fucker,” lecturing a student reporter in a press conference, and probably getting to know the local news and weather folks socially. He’s been busy, unfortunately, the Hoyas were also busy on the Court last year…busy LOSING! Burn!

Whatever the case may be, Cooley has recruited decently, and the team should be more competitive this year, It will be really telling to keep on eye on Cooley and his body language this season. He has a respectable young team that can grow into a pretty good team in years to come if Cooley remains engaged and develops the quality freshmen he’s bringing in. Hopefully for Georgetown that anticipation helps put more butts in the seats, because look at the back of that Cooley picture. That is DEPRESSING. Thousands of empty seats in the lower bowl. Upper tiers not even open. This is not your father’s Georgetown Hoya’s.

What all of this adds up to for Cooley and Georgetown’s intertwined futures remains to be seen. I will say this, much to the chagrin of Georgetown fans everywhere, but I see A LOT of Mike Anderson in Ed Cooley at this point in his career:

Ed Cooley in Happier times

• both run outdated systems

• both are far better motivational speakers than basketball coaches

• each coach’s best days are behind them

• the “best days” for each were objectively mediocre (a BET Title, a Regular Season title and a Sweet 16for Cooley; a Sweet 16, Elite 8 and an SEC tournament championship for MA)

• each came from their dream job (Cooley the local guy made good in Provy; MA at the school where he came up as an assistant under the legendary Nolan Richardson)

• both are well-liked personally among the CBB cognoscenti

• neither move made any sense: Cooley had PC on cruise control, and coulda coached a few more years and retired to the cushy TV gig he’s always longed for, and PC clearly the better job, and Cooley clearly doesn’t seem to have the same zest for reviving the program that he did at PC; MA because he was so out-of-left-field for St. John’s, and was a very odd fit and a fish out of water from day 1.

• both were billed as program saviors, there to pick the program outta the doldrums

• both seem completely checked out at their new gigs, as if they’re just collecting a retirement check, just peep the image…

Don’t at me.

Rotation:

PG: Malik Mack (So.), 6’1” 170lbs.
SG: Jayden Epps (Jr.), 6’2” 187 lbs.
SF: Micah Peavy (Gr.), 6’8” 215 lbs.
PF: Jordan Burks (So.) 6’6” 202 lbs.
C: Thomas Sorber (Fr.) 6’9” 250 lbs.

Bench:
Curtis Williams (So.), 6’5” 205 lbs. (G)
Drew Fielder (So.), 6’10” 216 lbs. (C)
Drew McKenna (R-Fr.), 6’8” 200 lbs. (F)
Caleb Williams (Fr.), 6’7” 215 lbs. (F)
Kayvvaun Mulready (Fr.), 6’4” 210 lbs. (G)
Jayden Fort (R-Fr.), 6’8” 195 lbs. (F)
Julius Halaifouna (Fr.), 7’0” 291 lbs. (C)
Seal Diouf (R-Fr.), 6’9” 215 lbs (C)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/16, 1pm, NBC - vs. Notre Dame
12/6, 7pm, ESPN2 - at WVU
12/14, 2:30pm, ACCN - at Syracuse

Realistically, these are not “big” games, as it would be surprising if any of these 3 opponents make the NCAAT, but the league needs Georgetown to go at least 1-2 in these games to keep it respectable.

What’s Old: Most importantly, junior Jayden Epps. The star guard played his freshman year at Illinois, averaging just 9.5 points in 24.6 mins on a talented Illinois team. He transferred to Georgetown last off-season and Ed handed him the keys to the kingdom. Epps responded in a big way, posting 18.5 pts. and 4 assists (up from 1.5 at Illinois) in 35 minutes. He was named to the Preseason All-Big East Third Team.

On the downside, Epps was very turnover prone at PG, posting 3.4 turnovers per game. His defense was even worse, posting a D-Rating of 118.1 and a DBPM of -1.7. The eye test wasn’t much better.

However, in an off-season that saw starters Dontrez Styles, Supreme Cook and Rowan Brumbaugh transfer to NC St., Oregon and Tulane, respectively, and saw the Hoyas lose starting G Jay Heath and spot starters Ish Massoud, and Wayne Bristol to graduation, Epps elected to stay the course with Cooley and the Hoyas. While the graduations don’t hurt too much, the defections cost Georgetown its 2nd, 3rd and 4th leading scorers, its top-2 rebounders, and 2 of its top 3-point shooters.

The second biggest returner of note is Drew Fielder. Fielder was lightly used last year, garnering just 2 spot starts, and playing just 14.6 minutes per game, putting up 5 points and 3 boards. While that seems paltry, the Per-40 numbers provide a slightly more encouraging story, as Fielder was the 2nd leading rebounder on the team with 8.4 boards per-40 minutes, behind only Supreme Cook (min. 100 minutes played). Fielder was a top-150 4* recruit per the 247 Sports Composite, who Cooley thought highly enough to bring with him from his 2023 PC recruiting class. They’re definitely hoping for a big jump from Fielder.

The Hoyas also return Drew McKenna. McKenna is a 4* top-150 small forward who joined the Hoyas in late December after reclassifying from 2024 to 2023. He redshirted the rest of the season. McKenna is an interesting prospect out of Maryland. He has the handle of a guard in a forward’s frame, and averaged a double-double for Glenelg Country Day in his last season of prep school. He’s long and can clog passing lanes on defense and figures to be a decent shooter. It will be interesting to see what he looks like this year following a half-season of red-shirting. If there’s one off-the-court thing to love about the terroristic Hoyas, it’s that McKenna was locked in on joining the Big East, naming a top-3 for his recruitment of Butler, Xavier and Georgetown, before choosing the Hoyas.

What’s New: A lot. Georgetown has 4 transfers and 5 freshmen in the mix. Cooley’s senior class is headlined by Harvard transfer and reigning Ivy League Rookie of the Year, Malik Mack. Mack is a bucket, scoring 17.2 for the Crimson on a fairly efficient 41/34/81 shooting percentages, and adding 5 assists and 1.3 steals. By most accounts, Mack was a top-50 player in the portal.

The knocks on Mack would be—like backcourt mate Jayden Epps—his defense, putting in a D-Rating of 107.4 and a DBPM of -0.4. Additionally, you have to have a little concern if your a Hoya that maybe his game doesn’t translate at this level. As a St. John’s fan, we watched two highly-touted Ivy League transfers struggle for most of the year. Mack’s numbers in 7 games versus tier A & B competition per KenPom do not help matters much. His eFG drops from 47.9 overall to 42.0 vs. Tier A+B competition, and his O-Rating drops from 106.5 to 90.7.

Worse still is that this disparity exists between his conference only play and his overall play as well: in other words, Mack feasted on competition weaker than the Ivy League. Here are the games he had over his 17 ppg average:

• 20 at Rice (W) (KenPom 229)

• 22 vs. Northeastern (W) (250)

• 32 at UMass (W-OT) (92)

• 18 at Boston College (L) (71)

• 27 at Indiana (L) (91)

• 26 at American (W) 296)

• 18 vs. Brown (L) (191)

• 20 vs. Yale (L) (90)

• 18 vs. Columbia (W) (232)

• 19 vs. Cornell (L) (103)

• 18 vs. Dartmouth (W) (336)

• 21 vs. Columbia (W) (232)

• 20 at Brown (L-OT) (191)

Firstly, Mack did suffer from Mononucleosis mid-season, missed 3 games, and went from 20 ppg on 57% eFG to 15 ppg on 42% eFG. It is entirely possible that the mono nagged him all year. Having had it during my misspent youth, I can attest that the fatigue lasts awhile after you’ve “recovered.”

Be that as it may, Mack hasn’t even played a team in the top-68 of KenPom. Harvard’s best opponent last year was 69th-ranked Princeton. In 2 games vs. Princeton Mack averaged just 8.5 ppg on 7-21 shooting.

Do I think Mack is incapable of playing at the high major level? No. Do I think he‘ll need some time? Absolutely. Jordan Dingle took most of the season to get adjusted last year coming from Penn. I would expect similar from Mack this year. The bonus is that Mack still has 2-more years of eligibility in DC should he choose to stay. If he does, he could have a monster year…next year.

The Hoyas also added grad student forward Micah Peavy from TCU. Peavy adds some much needed experience to this roster, and high-end experience, having played in the tournament all four years, starting as a freshman under Chris Beard at Texas Tech, and all 3 of his seasons at TCU. For such a young team, Peavy should be a stabilizing presence. He put up 10.9 points, 5 boards and 2.6 assists last season for the Horned Frogs.

Georgetown also added former 3* forward recruit Jordan Burks out of Kentucky. He was VERY lightly used by the Wildcats, appearing just 20 times for 7 mpg. Burks can shoot, I guess (he was 2-5, 40% last year). He runs the pick-and-roll pretty well, he cuts to the hoop off-the-ball, but he’s not the kinda wing who will break a defender down off the dribble or get to the rim. His per-40 numbers are “meh”: 10.3 points per 40, 9 rebounds per 40, 1 block per 40.

Ultimately, there’s a reason this inexplicably 3:18 long YouTube highlight reel is mostly cupcakes and blowouts…I also love that some of them are him collecting the rebound on his own poor layup attempt at the rim. If THAT’S one of the best highlights you can include…oh boy. But for some reason, the Burner Ball depth charts have him penciled in as the starting 4, which is why I penciled him in as the starting 4 above. Is that accurate? I don’t know. Do I care? No.

Rounding out the transfers, 6’5” guard Curtis Williams from Louisville. We all know what a debacle Louisville was last year, and Williams was no exception. Sporting an atrocious O-Rating of 86.4, a hideous D-Rating of 117.3, an abysmal combined BPM of -3.8, and a student-in-a-commercial-break-contest worthy 31.7/28.7/71, for an eFG of 41%. My guess is this is a bit of a lotto ticket for Cooley. I don’t think this is someone Hoyas fans should expect much of off-the-bat, but he certainly has the pedigree, having entered Louisville as a 4*, top-150 recruit.

Georgetown also brings in the 12th rated freshmen class in the country. That class is headlined by 4* Thomas Sorber out of Philadelphia. Sorber is a BIG BOY, coming in at a stout 6’9”, 250 lbs. Per the Burner Ball depth charts, Sorber is likely to be the starting center. While I definitely expect him to be the long-term answer at center for Georgetown, asking a true freshman to come in and battle a roster of experienced Big East bigs like Ryan Cockbrenner, Eric Dixon, Samson Johnson, and Zuby Ejiofor, and experienced newcomers like Christ Essandoko and Tarris Reed is a tall ask. At no. 43 in the 247 Sports Composite Sorber, sits right on that line where it’s unclear if he will wind up being a major contributor, or being a piece that needs a year of seasoning and development.

Kayvaun Mulready feels like the most likely to get significant minutes this year given the shortage of depth at guard, he’ll be battling for the first guard off the bench role with Curtis Williams. Mulready is a 4* top-100 recruit.

Caleb Williams may also see time this year at the 4. Burner Ball depth chart has him listed as the no. 2 PF on the roster behind the aforementioned Burks, who is far from a sure thing to pan out. Williams clocks in at 6’7”, 215 lbs., rating 3 stars and ranking 199th in 247 Sports’ Composite Ranking.

Rounding out the recruiting class are a trio of front court players, starting with Julius Halaifonua, a 7’0” center from Australia, out of the NBA Global Academy. Definitely an quality piece given his size and pedigree, but he will be buried on the depth chart in a loaded front court. A year of seasoning will probably also help.

Rounding out the high school recruits are 6’8” center Seal Diouf, a 3* out of California and 6’9” forward Jayden Fort, a local prospect out of Jackson-Reed High School in DC. Diouf is expected to take a red shirt this season. Given the logjam in the front court—Sorber, Fielder, Burks, Caleb Williams & Halaifonua all likely ahead of Fort & Diouf on the depth chart—both Fort and Diouf are expected to red shirt this season.

The Optimist’s Take: Ed Cooley did a masterful job of identifying talent that was interested (Mack and Peavy) and under-utilized and under-appreciated gems (Curtis Williams & Burks), all of whom seamlessly integrate. Mack and Epps co-exist beautifully in the backcourt. They get what they need from Freshmen Sorber and Mulready, redshirt freshmen Drew McKenna and sophomore Drew Fielder.

I think Ed is more of a brunette man, but this already took more time than it should have

What we saw from Cooley off-the-court (figuratively speaking) last season (clapping back at hecklers; skipping TO huddles; generally looking like he’d rather be anywhere else) are all distant memories; the old, motivational, upbeat Cooley has returned. Perhaps he’s even found a new paramour…might I suggest Jacqueline Matter of Fox 5 DC?

The Hater’s Take: The team is just way too young, and they make too many young mistakes. Mack and Epps are unable to find a rhythm together. Guys like Curtis Williams and Jordan Burks are what they’ve shown to date in their careers. Drew Fielder fails to take a sophomore leap. The freshmen simply aren’t ready to contribute at this level. The defense looks like swiss cheese.

Fan Pulse:

Deep-rooted fear that Cooley might bolt for UVa. Buyer’s remorse. A bizarre level of confidence in a roster that only includes 1 proven high-major player.

Bottom Line: I think this Georgetown roster is set up for the future. But from where I’m sitting now, it doesn’t look likely to be this year for them. Too many question marks. Wayyyyy too young. Keep the core together, and they could be a tournament team next year with the right portal additions.

Prediction: 13-18 (4-16), 11th Place

Previewing the Big East

The Big East is coming off a mixed result in 2023-24. The top of the league was as good as ever, with 3 powerhouse teams—UConn, Marquette, and Creighton—making the NCAAT, and UConn of course wining its second consecutive National Championship. Creighton and Marquette each made the Sweet 16. On the flip side, 3 Big East teams were snubbed by the committee: Seton Hall, St. John’s and Providence. Seton Hall participated in the NIT, winning the whole damn thing. Val never went to bat for the league public following the snubs, but Hurley and Pitino have each used their ample pulpits to criticize the committee. “Bold move Cotton.”

Now that media day has come and gone, I’m going to give my picks her for preseason individual awards and all-conference teams. Below, I will also post my Big East rankings as I reveal them twice daily, starting Wednesday, with the final 3 dropping on Sunday. Without further ado, here’s my votes (that don’t count for anything lol):

Conference POY: Kadary Richmond - what can I say, I’m a homer. But it does seem like Kadary is dialed-in at St. John’s. His teammates voted him captain. I think he has a monster year with St. John’s, removed from the pressures of having to carry the load almost entirely on his own.

Conference DPOY: Ryan Cockbrenner - I mean this goes without saying. Odds would be like -15000 if you could find them posted. When the officials are scared to call fouls against you, it’s pretty easy to be elite defensively.

Freshman of the Year: Liam McNeely - not a lot of freshmen that will contribute in the Big East at the level McNeely figures to contribute. Feels pretty close to a lock here too barring injury.

Newcomer of the Year: Ryan Conwell - this kid is a baller. We’ve seen what Miller can do with transfer guards, and Boum and Olivari didn’t even have as much success before they got to X as Conwell did last year.

Coach of the Year: Rick Pitino - he’s going to have this Johnnies team cooking from the opening tip on 11/4, and they’re not going to stop cooking until March, maybe April.

First Team:
Ryan Cockbrenner, Creighton
Eric Dixon, Villanova
Dayvion McKnight, Xavier
Alex Karaban, UConn
Kam Jones, Marquette

Second Team:
Pierre Brooks, Butler
Jahmyl Telfort, Butler
Deivon Smith, St. John’s
Ryan Conwell, Xavier
Aidan Mahaney, UConn

Third Team:
Aaron Scott, St. John’s
Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s
Steven Ashworth, Creighton
Jayden Pierre, Providence
Wooga Poplar, Villanova

PROJECTED BIG EAST RESULTS:

1st - To Be Released

2nd - To Be Released

3rd - To Be Released

4th - To Be Released

5th - To Be Released

6th - To Be Released

7th - Villanova

8th - Butler

9th - Seton Hall

10th - DePaul

11th - Georgetown

Welcome to On High

Welcome to my humble Big East blog, "On High.” Here I’ll discuss all things BIG East basketball, with a particular emphasis on St. John’s. Why a blog you may ask? Well, I think people were getting tired of my 50,000 word Tweets (curse you Elon for ever giving us the option!!), so I set this up to be more of an outlet for my longer thoughts.

What can you expect? Generally, we’ll be covering all the biggest news and topics in the BIG East. There’ll probably be a weekly gambling post, games to watch, etc. In the immediate short-term, you can expect my team-by-team BIG East breakdowns beginning tomorrow, and going one per day until we’ve hit all 11.

Moving forward, you can expect to see contributions from other writers, probably a BIG East officials power ranking, a BIG East power ranking, perhaps some recruit tracking, some metrics tracking, and more.

The piece de resistance will be a weekly live podcast where I will recap the week that was in the Big East…while high. Hence the title “On High,” because I will literally be on the air high, and of course because of the double entendre with the religious meaning of “on high.” My hope is to have some guests on the podcast, and given that no self-respecting serious journalist or personality, let alone a player, coach, or administrator will join the show as a guest, you can probably expect a lot of me, but also some of your favorite BIG East Twitter personalities to join me as events dictate.

At the end of the day, this is as much an experiment as it is a fully formed idea, so I am fully open to hearing suggestions about site features, blog posts, and other things I should do with the site and podcast.

So buckle up, strap in, grab your favorite strain (Heir Heads or Z Pie for me), grab your favorite alcoholic beverage, or a soda if you’re sober, and let’s have a good time with it.