Better Know a Team: St. John’s

Pictured: 2 GOATs

The year 2 Pitino jump was very real. After flying under-the-radar this time last season, Rick & Co. now have the crushing weight of lofty expectations. Can the Johnnies deliver again?

Last Year’s Record: 31-5 (18-2) 1st Place, Round of 32 Loss

It was a banner year for the boys from Queens. Two banners to be exact, as the Johnnies posted a Big East double, en route to a 2-seed in the NCAAT. Unfortunately, the magical season ended in heartbreak, with the Johnnies stymied by the length and athleticism of John Calipari’s Arkansas in the Round of 32 at the Dunk, in front of a pro-Johnnies crowd. The Johnnies ultimately lost by 9, but the game was close late.

We always knew shooting would be a struggle for these Johnnies, and even still, they turned in their single-worst shooting performance of the season versus Arkansas, 21-75 (28%) from the field, 2-22 (9.1%) from deep. The Johnnies’ star and Big East Player of the year RJ Luis led the futility, shooting 3-17, leading the Johnnies faithful to cringe at the mere thought of ever celebrating St. Patrick’s Day again. Had the team just shot something closer to its averages (44.5/30.1), the Johnnies would have had their first Sweet 16 berth since 1999.

C’est la vie. As it is, this team got its first NCAAT win since 2000, when it was also a 2-seed. Regardless of the ending, I will always remember this team fondly. It was a roller coaster ride from the lows of losing to Georgia in the Bahamas, to the highs of winning a Big East double and securing a 2-seed in the NCAAT. Off-the-court, you’d be hard-pressed to argue any fan base had more fun following their team around, as Johnnies fans showed up in force to the Bahamas, to the NCAAT, and almost every game in between.

The Johnnies also cleaned up in the post-season awards, with RJ Luis winning BE POY, Zuby Ejiofor winning Most Improved, Zuby and RJ making All-Big East First Team, Kadary Richmond making Second Team, and of course Rick Pitino winning Big East Coach of the Year, Naismith Coach of the Year, AP Coach of the Year, and the USBWA’s Henry Iba Award for the best coach.

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 8 (16)
KenPom: 16 (14)
EvanMiya: 15 (8)

Coach: The GOAT Rick Pitino, Year 3

What can be said about Rick? Still doesn’t feel real every time I see him roaming the sidelines. Who knows how many years we have left with him, so I intend to savor every minute of it. With Rick, this team will never be worse than 4th in the Big East.

The Rick Pitino year 2 bounce was all too real for St. John’s opponents. In the KenPom era, Rick took Louisville from 61st in KenPom to 10th, Iona from 178th to 89th, and now St. John’s from 21st to 14th, the size of which belies the true nature of the jump from 20-13 (11-9) to 31-5 (18-2), a Big East double, and going from NCAAT snub to a 2-seed.

The biggest difference for SJU year-over-year was that they were ready to go from opening night in year 2. Having 3 key pieces (Ejiofor, Luis and Simeon Wilcher) return certainly helped, but the Johnnies also had to integrate two PGs (Deivon Smith and Kadary Richmond) and the starting 4 (Aaron Scott). Rick spoke before last season about how he felt year 1 was a learning experience, and he definitely seemed more prepared to integrate a bunch of new players. I expect he’s continued to learn, and this team will be ready despite even less continuity than last season.There’s arguably less continuity this season, so having this team ready to play tonight or–at least by Saturday afternoon when the 15th-ranked Crimson Tide come to the Garden.

Roster:

Starters
PG: Ian Jackson (So.) 6’4” 190 lbs.
SG: Oziyah Sellers (Sr.) 6’5” 185 lbs.
SF: Bryce Hopkins (Gr.) 6’7” 220 lbs.
PF: Dillon Mitchell (Sr.) 6’8” 210 lbs.
C: Zuby Ejiofor (Sr.) 6’9” 240 lbs.

Rotation Bench
G/F Joson Sanon (So.) 6’5” 190 lbs.
PG Dylan Darling (R-Jr.) 6’1” 180 lbs.
F/C Ruben Prey (So.) 6’10” 230 lbs.
G Kelvin Odih (Fr.) 6’4” 190 lbs.
G Elefteris Liotopoulos (So.) 6’4” 200 lbs.
F Sadiku Ibine Ayo (Sr.) 6’6” 215 lbs.

Bench Warmers
C Handje Tamba (Gr.) 6’11” 230 lbs.
PG Casper Pohto (Fr.) 6’4” unknown
F Imran Suljanovic (Fr.) 6’8” 200 lbs. (medical redshirt)
PG Fotios Konstantinidis (Fr) 6’2” 175 lbs. (walk-on)

See ya in Vegas!

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/8, TBD vs. Alabama (MSG), TBD

Players Era Festival
11/24, 4:30 pm EDT vs. Iowa St. (N), TruTV
11/25, 5:00 pm EDT vs. Baylor (N), TruTV
11/26-27, TBD, TBD, TBD (third Player’s Era game)

12/6, TBD vs. Ole Miss (MSG), TBD
12/20, TBD vs. Kentucky (N), CBS

What’s Old: 
Preseason BEPOY Zuby. Ejiofor. The Big East’s Most Improved Player in 2024-25, Zuby looks to turn in another stellar campaign. He could appear on many NPOY watch lists as the season progresses, and he’s certainly an All-American candidate.

I hate to be that guy, but I absolutely predicted this Zuby breakout. Dave and I were all over the Zuby breakout on the Eye on the Storm podcast and I also tweeted about it. I predicted 13 & 8 in that Tweet. He out-did my prediction, going for 14.7 & 8, adding in 1.4 BPG and 1.6 apg as well. So you might say “well Frank, you must be predicting BIG things from Zuby this year!” Yes and no.

Do I expect Zuby to regress? Absolutely not. If anything, I expect him to improve. The most obvious area for improvement is his 3-point shot. With frontcourt newcomer Dillon Mitchell a non-factor from behind the arc, Zuby improving on his 10-45 (22.2%) performance from behind the arc would do wonders to open up the offense.

The less obvious area is in facilitating. This isn’t so much a skills improvement, as it may be an area where we see some statistical improvement from 1.6 apg last season. Last year’s team shooting woes were well-documented, which did not leave many desirable kick-out opportunities. That is not the case this year, as the roster has more 3-point shooting. Zuby is also likely to draw more attention defensively, so I would expect more opportunities for him to kick the ball out, as well as more reliable conversions of those opportunities.

However, if you’re looking for Zuby to massively improve on 14.7 ppg and 8.1 rpg, I would temper those expectations. For starters, Zuby averaged 4.4 of those boards on the offensive end, which is why 25.2% of Zuby’s FGAs were on putbacks, 96th percentile in the country. With the shooting likely to be much improved this season, I wouldn’t expect Zuby to pull down as many offensive boards. Furthermore, when he’s playing alongside Mitchell, they will be sharing the rebounding load on both ends, limiting the statistical ceiling for both. Similarly, without reliable put-back opportunities on the offensive end, Zuby will need to look for alternative ways to boost his points total. If he can hit 3-pointers more reliably, we could see a boost in ppg. If not, I would expect his ppg to remain relatively flat.

But Zuby will be more efficient and more dynamic offensively, as he’ll get some freedom to move around when Mitchell is on the floor. He will still be elite defensively. His defensive versatility and ability to guard 1 through 5 will still be the anchor that makes the defense elite.

Portuguese forward/center Ruben Prey, Greek guard Lefteris Liotopoulos, and Pitino favorite, forward Sadiku Ibine Ayo round out the returning group. Together with Zuby, the returners accounted for just 24.1% of minutes last year, with Zuby alone accounting for 15.7%. That certainly doesn’t seem like a ton. However, last season saw us return only 21.8% of the prior year’s minutes, and that turned out pretty good for us. Also, we had 5 returners last year versus 4 returners this year, meaning on average the returners this year had bigger roles than the returners last year. All of which is to say, I understand the concern about continuity, but I think it’s a bit overblown. Last season not 1 returner made as big an impact in Pitino Year 1 as Zuby did last season. RJ Luis only averaged 20 mpg, and Zuby 11. The other returners were negligible. So we’re returning more quality minutes this season.

The other reason I think continuity concerns our overblown? Everyone is sleeping on my man Ruben Prey. The front court is crowded, no doubt, but Prey absolutely has a role to play. While he didn’t show it much last year, getting up just 17 3’s, and hitting just 3 (17.6%), Prey is a shooter. Given that Mitchell is a non-factor shooting, Hopkins has been an inconsistent shooter, and it remains to be seen if Zuby can improve on last year’s shooting performance, Prey will be able to carve out a role in the front court if he can hit shots. He’s also a solid rebounder, putting up 7.7 boards per 40 last season. Finally, he can provide the defensive versatility that Zuby provides when Zuby is on the bench, be it for a breather or the rare occasion Zuby finds himself in foul trouble (Zuby committed 4+ fouls in just 6 non-OT games last season, and never fouled out–in those games where he committed 4, while still averaging 32.8 mpg in those games, indicating his ability to play with fouls hanging over him).

Do I think Ruben Prey has the same level of breakout that Zuby had last season? Doubtful. He’s not likely to play 30+ mpg. However, I do think he could average 10 & 5 in 20 mpg, on 35%+ from deep.

Given the open question at PG, Lefteris “Lefty” Liotopoulos definitely has the opportunity to force his way into a major rotation role. Lefty was used sparingly last season, but he showed flashes of being a high-major PG. His shooting was not great, but given that he only played 119 minutes all year, it was tough for him to find his rhythm. He’s already shown some flashes this year, going on a personal 8-0 run to tie the Michigan exhibition game in overtime.

Sadikou Ibine Ayo is one of Rick’s favorite players on the squad. Many Johnnies fans had dreams of Rick bringing over Daniss Jenkins, Walter Clayton, Jr. and Nelly Junior Joseph when we hired him away from Iona. Instead, we got Jenkins and Ayo, the latter causing many heads to be scratched. In the 2 years since, Ayo has absolutely proven his worth as a leader on and off the court for the Johnnies, and it had become easy to see what Rick loves about him. He plays hard and always gives max effort. Defensively, he is very solid, and can hold his own when players are getting a breather. Offensively, he’s not afraid to let it fly, and is a career 36.5% from deep. He provided a spark with a made 3 off the bench more than once in his tenure.

What’s New: “The Mega Haul.” Another monster transfer portal class put together by Pitino & staff, ranked 1st by 247 Sports. The headliner is Ian Jackson, ranked 7th in 247 Sports transfer player rankings. Jackson was a 5-star recruit in the class of 2024, and posted 11.9 ppg on 45.6/39.5/72.3 shooting as a true freshman for UNC last season. This would seem to be an unquestionably great add for the Johnnies, but of course, as with many portal players, there’s a few caveats.

First, Jackson had an up-and-down year. Certainly this can partially be chalked up to being a freshman, and learning to play at this level. His season can be broken up into 3 parts:

Games 1-6: 17.2 mpg; 9 ppg; 0.5 apg; 2.2 rpg; 0.2 spg; 45.9/47.1/85.7; despite what one might believe, 4 of these games were against quality opponents: @ Kansas; and 3 games in Maui vs. Dayton, Auburn and Michigan State.

Games 7-22: 31.1 mpg; 16.4 ppg; 1.1 apg; 3.9 rpg; 0.8 spg; 1.4 topg; 48.7/35.7/72.7; this included non-conference games against Alabama, Florida & UCLA, and the first 11 ACC games. What we see here is a clear improvement from the shaky start to the season. The performance against an Alabama team with solid guards stood out, even in a 79-94 loss, posting 23 points, 5 boards and 2 steals on 58.8% from the field (10/17) and 60% from 3 (3/5).

In his 23rd game, a narrow home W versus Pitt, Jackson imploded, posting 0 points on 0-3 shooting, logging just 22 mpg. After this he seems to have fallen out of favor:

Games 23-36: 18.3 mpg; 8.1 ppg; 0.8 apg; 1.6 rpg; 0.5 spg; 1.4 topg; 39.2/43.1/64; This encompassed the end of ACC play, the ACC tournament, and UNC’s 2 NCAA Tournament games. It’s unclear what happened here. He clearly lost his mojo, and lost the faith of his coach. Just 1 of his 8 20+ point games occurred in the stretch run and none in the postseason. Indeed, his minutes fell off even harder in the postseason, averaging just 14.2 mpg in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

Was it the grind of a long season wearing on a freshman? Wouldn’t be the first time. Just a slump? Always possible. Or was it a regression to the mean? That latter question is the one that will nag Johnnies fans until they see what Jackson can do. Is Jackson the guy who excelled in the meat of UNC’s schedule? Or is he the guy who started slow and limped down the stretch? Advanced metrics are not kind to Ian Jackson, with UNC sporting a +21.2 net rating with Jackson off the floor, versus a -0.5 with him on the floor, per CBB Analytics.

With all of that said, Jackson is clearly an excellent individual talent, and a very good shooter. Which brings us to the second caveat: Rick Pitino stated upon signing Jackson that he intends to deploy Jackson as the team’s PG. Jackson sports an assist per 40 rate of just 1.5, and an assist % of just 7% (27th percentile nationally). That said, his turnover rate is solid, at just 10.6% (81st percentile). On a per game basis he averaged just 0.9 assists.

Rick has already attempted to walk back this statement, stating PG was irrelevant in the modern game, that no one plays with a PG anymore, and that “point guard” just means a guard that can’t shoot. He’s also made some noise about Dillon Mitchell: Point-Forward, and most recently claimed Oziyah Sellers, a career shooting guard at the college level, was the starting point guard during an open-to-the-media intra-squad scrimmage While there’s some truth to some of that–Duke played without a true point guard last season, e.g.–you still need a player who is comfortable with the ball in his hands, particularly in late game situations or anytime a team might press. I do like the concept of St. John’s playing a free-flowing, positionless offensive system. They played that way at times last year, the difference being that had 2–4 PGs on the roster with Kadary and Deivon, and depending on how you felt about Wilcher’s PG abilities and Lefty’s minutes. The fact that everyone out there can really score the ball–with the exception of maybe Mitchell–it very well could work.

However, if we’re sitting here in March wondering why this team disappointed us in 2025-26, lack of elite point guard play will likely be a major factor. That’s not to say it will go down like that, just that if we wind up disappointed, it will be a major factor.

While one of the more unheralded recruits of the Johnnies mega haul portal class, you cannot discuss Ian Jackson’s role on this team without discussing Big Sky Player of the Year Dylan Darling. Darling is an honest to God point guard–and not in the Pitino “guard-who-can’t-shoot” sense of the phrase (he shot 35.6% from deep last season). Darling played 34.3 mpg at the point last season for Idaho State in the Big Sky, scoring 19.8 ppg, and dishing out 5.7 apg, with a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, on 44.1/35.6/81 shooting.

What you may have stood out to you in that last sentence was “Idaho State in the Big Sky.” While Darling is an experienced point guard, whether that translates up from a conference ranked 22 by KenPom last season is certainly an open question. Darling was recruited by Washington State out of college, and had a forgettable freshman year, before getting injured 3 games into his sophomore campaign, and transferring to Idaho State. Cutting against his ability to make the jump, his Tiers A+B (4 games) stats per KenPom, which show his O-rating falling from 120.9 overall to 113.8 versus Tiers A+B, and his shooting falling from 48.7 from 2-point range to 41.2 versus Tiers A+B, and his 3-point percentage dropping from 36% to 27.8% versus Tiers A+B.

That said, his assist rate dropped only slightly, from 35.4% (26th nationally) to a still-respectable 34.1% versus Tiers A+B and actually improving to 36.6% versus just Tier A (3 games). For reference, Kadary Richmond led the Johnnies with a 29.5% assist rate last season (80th nationally). That tells me that Darling is a player who knows his limitations, and knows how to exploit weaknesses in defenses, even when those defenses prevent him from scoring. If you would like some anecdotal evidence, Darling posted 22 & 7 on 6/12 from the field, 1-1 from deep and 9/10 from the stripe versus USC, by far his best performance. He also scored 13 & 3 on UCLA on 4/5 shooting from 2-point range, but just 1/5 from 3-point range. Against their best conference foe (KP 126 No. Colorado), he averaged 21 and 5.5, albeit an inefficient 13/34 from the field (38.2%) and 4/14 (28.6) from deep.

Defensively, Darling could be a weak spot when he’s on the floor. He’s tenacious, but lacks the footspeed to keep up with quicker guards. He makes up for some of that with basketball IQ and anticipation, but at this level you need the footspeed to add to those skills. Even at Idaho St., the Tigers were 2.5 pp100 better defensively with Darling on the bench. There could be some wonkiness there as that accounted for just 170 minutes vs. 914 with Darling on the floor, but it is worth noting.

So there are legitimate concerns about Darling’s ability to play at this level. I for one believe he can. I love his tape. He’s not the quickest, but he’s super crafty. His assist numbers versus Tiers A+B lead me to believe he’s able to distribute at a high level, and similarly, his TO rate drops from 14.7% overall to just 11.5% versus Tiers A+B, indicating he can take care of the ball at a high level, as he was essentially the only PG on Idaho State last year and handled almost all of the ball handling responsibilities. If he can be something like a 7 & 5 player across 25 mpg, with just 2 TOs per game, he’ll play a huge role. He has 1 more year of eligibility left in 2026-27, and could be the starting PG if he develops sufficiently this season, and Jackson goes pro, as many expect.

The Johnnies also bring in a familiar face from an in-conference foe: Bryce Hopkins from Providence. This marks back-to-back years they’ve poached a star player from a conference rival. Hopkins has played just 3 games since January 3, 2024, when he tore his ACL, which makes it easy to forget just how good he was for Providence prior to his injury. In 2022-23, his last full season, he was one of just 2 unanimous selections to the All-Big East First Team, alongside Tyler Kolek. That season he posted 15.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.3 apg on 45.2/36.4/75.9 shooting, carrying PC to an NCAAT berth in Ed Cooley’s last season. The 11 seed in the tournament belies how good they were, racing out to a 14-3 record and a top-20 AP poll ranking,with wins over UConn and Marquette, before going .500 the rest of the way, losing to eventual national champion UConn in the first round of the BET and Kentucky in the first round of the NCAAT.

Prior to his injury in 2023-24, Hopkins had mostly picked up where he left off, posting 15.5 ppg and 8.6 rpg. However, his 3-point shooting fell off, posting just 18.9% on 3.8 attempts per game (up from 2.3). Hopkins returned briefly last season, before deciding to shut it down and continue rehabbing. In 3 games, he posted 51 points (17 ppg), 23 boards (7.7 rpg), 9 assists (3 apg) on 40/40/75 shooting. Those games were against BYU, @ Rhode Island and @ DePaul. Not elite competition by any stretch, but not cupcakes either.

In other words, with a whole ‘nother season to recover, to train, to get leaner and stronger, I think it’s reasonable to expect that we can get the best version of Hopkins from his Providence days.

It’s not a coincidence I started with Jackson/Darling and then Hopkins. In my humble opinion, these 3 players have the biggest “swing” potential for St. John’s this season. That’s not to say any of them will be the best player (although Hopkins and Jackson are both certainly talented enough to claim that mantle), but that whether or not they perform will be the biggest factors in just how high the ceiling is for this iteration of the Johnnies.

For Jackson and Darling, it’s the need to get good enough point guard play from 1 of or some combination of the 2 of them. With Hopkins, if he can shoot in the range of the 36.4% from deep that he shot during his first season in Providence, it really opens up a lot in the front court, with Dillon Mitchell being a non-shooter and Zuby’s shooting contributions remaining to be determined.

Speaking of Dillon Mitchell, he’s one of the 4 pieces that will give St. John’s a dominant front court. Mitchell is an elite athlete and glass cleaner, pulling down 9.8 boards per game. He’s excellent in the pick-and-roll, so hopefully he can develop a strong chemistry with Jackson and Darling (and Sellers?) in that regard. His size and length make him a major asset on the defensive end. I worry some about his ability to guard the 5, as he’s just 6’8”, but I trust with his athleticism he can definitely guard 1 through 4.

The other interesting thing about this is that Rick has stated that we could see Mitchell play some point forward. While I trust Rick to properly evaluate his talent. There isn’t much support for this in the stats and metrics. It would definitely be an interesting wrinkle. It would be in line with Rick’s previous comments that they’re going to play positionless basketball, which comments came after he said Ian Jackson would be the next great St. John’s point guard. Needless to say, point guard is looking more and more like a question mark for SJU as the season approaches. Perhaps Mitchell will be part of the solution to that conundrum.

The Johnnies shooting woes were well documented last season. St. John’s shot just 30.1% from deep last season, ranking 347th in division one. The upside? They held their opponents to just 30.6% from deep, the 27th best 3-point defense in the country.

This off-season, the Johnnies sought to address those shooting woes. Enter Oziyah Sellers, senior from Stanford, previously of USC. After 2 forgettable years at USC, Sellers had something of a breakout season in 2024-25, posting 13.7 points per game on 45.1/40.1/89.7 shooting. While the headline here is the Johnnies have brought in a guy who has shot 40.1% from deep on 4.2 3-point attempts per game, 3-pointers accounted for just 38.8% of his shot diet. Like some of the players we’ve seen thrive under Rick in his first 2 seasons in Queens, Sellers thrives in the mid-range. He shot 45.3% in the mid-range last season, good for 80th percentile nationally, and mid-range 2’s accounted for 28% of his shots, 97th percentile nationally. Sellers tends to struggle at the rim, so it is unlikely we seem much of a driving game from him, but that’s not what he’s here for.

Defensively, Sellers did not show much on a Stanford team that was pretty mid defensively, ranking 99th in KenPom. However, when it comes to defense and Rick Pitino, the sum is usually greater than the parts. What Sellers brings is a large body for a guard, solid length, and good athleticism. Those traits will make him an asset, and a better defender under Rick Pitino than he’s shown to date.

Rounding out the transfer that are expected to contribute is Joson Sanon, another guard from Arizona State. Like Sellers, there’s some questions about his defense. However, Sanon is incredibly long and incredibly athletic. He’s also another big guard, clocking in at 6’5”. If he buys-in defensively, he can be a force on that end with his length and quickness.

Just getting out from under Bobby Fucking Hurley should do wonders for Sanon’s game

Offensively though, Sanon should shine. Like Sellers, Sanon loves the mid-range, shooting 46.5% in the mid-range, 82nd percentile, and taking 31.3% of his shots there, 98th percentile. Even better, Sanon is a 2nd elite deep threat to play alongside Sellers and Jackson. Sanon shot 45/122 from deep, 36.8%. He feasted in the corner, shooting 42.3%, which is why we’re likely to see him deployed more on the wing, with Sellers more of the traditional 2-guard. However, like Sellers, Sanon struggles at the rim, where he shoots just 42.3% (6th percentile), and only took 9.4% of his shots. With his size and athleticism, SJU will need Sanon to get better at attacking the basket.

The concern with Sanon is that he feasted in the non-conference schedule, where he posted 14 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 12 apg on 47.4/50.9/69.2 shooting. The ONLY high major team ASU played was Florida, although they did play a pretty tough mid-major slate, including Gonzaga, New Mexico, and St. Mary’s–all tournament teams. In Big12 play, Sanon averaged just 10.3 ppg on 38.1/25.8/73 shooting. The caveat to this concern is that Sanon suffered an ankle injury in the Big12 opener, and it appeared to have lingered all season, affecting his shooting and explosiveness. If you look at the 4 quality games he played above, he struggled against eventual national champion Florida and Gonzaga, but excelled against the tough defense of St. Mary’s and versus New Mexico:

11/14/24 @ Gonzaga - 17 minutes; 3 pts./1 reb/1 ast/1 steal/1-4 FG/1-3 3P/0-0 FT
11/28/24 v. UNM (N) - 32; 19/2/3/0/6-11/2-5/5-5
11/29/24 v. SMC (N) - 29; 19/2/1/0/8-16/3-4/0-0
12/14/24 v. Florida (N) - 30; 5/3/0/0/2-9/1-4/0-0

The hope is that his is merely an anomaly, and that the experience he received playing in the Big12 helps him improve this season. A cause for optimism? His statline the last 5 games of the year, where he rebounded a bit from the rough stretch of Big12 play as his health presumably improved: 18.8 ppg/4.8 rpg/1.4 apg on 47.3/30.4/65.4. Clearly the 3-point and free throw shooting still not great in that last stretch, but it certainly provides room for optimism. With the whole off-season to fully heal, Sanon could be a monster at full health for the Johnnies.

The other concern with Sanon–one I do not share–is buy-in. I trust Rick Pitino to vet these types of issues, and I trust him to manage them as well. If Rick can get Sanon to buy-in to playing less selfishly, and committing himself to be an elite defender, Sanon has near limitless potential. I am very, very high on Sanon and his ability to be a major piece for SJU this year.

Our last newcomer who may contribute is freshman recruit Kelvin Odih. Odih is a 4* prospect, ranked 67th in 247 Sports’ Composite ranking. Odih was committed to Darian DeVries at West Virginia, but decommitted when DeVries moved on to Indiana after just 1 season in Morgantown. After the decommit, Rick and company swooped in and beat out Utah for Odih. Physically, Odih is a specimen. He is a strong, physically imposing 6’4”, 190-pound guard.

Rick is generally reluctant to play freshman, but Odih could be the exception. There have been nothing but rave reviews of Odih coming out of pre-season workouts. His mature frame, and tenacity on the defense end will certainly endear him to Rick. He’s the type of guy that can be the tip of the spear in a ball-pressure situation. Additionally, his size and strength make him a versatile asset defensively–something incredibly important in Rick’s system.

Offensively, the scout on Odih is that he’s the type of player who can get downhill and attack the rim with speed and strength. Given the lack of a great rim attacker on this roster, this further opens the door for Odih to break Rick’s rotation more than any of the previous freshmen Rick has had at St. John’s.

The Johnnies also added 6’11” NAIA grad transfer Handje Tamba, from the Democratic Republic of Congo, by way of Knoxville, Tennessee. Tamba played 2 seasons at Weber State, where he averaged just 10 mpg, 1.7 ppg, 1.6 rpg, and 0.4 bpg. He transferred down to the NAIA for 2024-25 where he was the Appalachian Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year, and first team all-conference, averaging a near-double-double for MIlligan College: 10.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.7 bpg. In an already-crowded front court, we’re unlikely to see many meaningful minutes out of Tamba, but he’s the type of player who will push the front court in practice.

Rounding out the roster are two European players: Casper Pohto of Sweden and Imran Suljanovic of Austria. Of the 2, Suljanovic is the much more intriguing prospect. He’s a 6’8” forward who was ranked 138th in 247 Sports’ Composite ranking for the class of 2025. In one game at the senior national team level for Austria (earlier this year) he posted an 11/3/3 line. In the 2024 at the U18 national team level, he averaged 22.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.1 apg in 7 games, and shot 38.4% from deep. Unfortunately, Suljanovic broke his patella and is out for the season. However, he could form the backbone of a quality, Euro-laden roster in 2026-27, with Prey and Liotopoulos also eligible to return.

Pohto is a 6’4” guard, who averaged 13.6 ppg, 6 rpg, and 2.4 apg in just 28.1 mpg at the 2024 U18 EuroBasket Championship. He has also played for Sunrise Christian Academy, and St. Benedict’s Prep before that, so he has played high-level prep ball as well. He fits the mold of a prototypical big Pitino guard, and it will be interesting to watch him develop. If he stays in Queens, he could also be a contributor to a Euro-centric 2026-27 roster.

The Optimist’s Take: Ian Jackson is able to be the high-level point guard we need OR Dylan Darling is able to be a great point guard at this level. The defense gels instantly, with the athleticism, speed and versatility plugging right into Rick’s system. Hopkins shoots 35%+ from deep on 3+ attempts, keeping things open in the front court. Prey adds additional front court shooting, and Zuby becomes a reliable low-volume, can’t-leave-him-alone-from-depp 3-point threat. Sanon and Sellers provide the deep threat we so dearly missed last season, and Zuby develops an inside-out game to feed them the ball.

The Hater’s Take: As everyone expects, point guard is a huge issue. Darling is unable to translate to this level and Jackson simply isn’t a point guard. The Zuby/Mitchell/Hopkins trio in the front court creates major spacing issues due to an inability to hit deep shots, limiting our ability to have 3 of our best players on the floor together. Prey doesn’t pan out in an expanded role. The defense takes a huge step back as Jackson, Sellers and Sanon fail to improve defensively under Rick.

The goal.

Fan Pulse: Feeling it. Booking rooms in Indianapolis levels of feeling it.

Bottom Line: When you have Rick Pitino and a load of talent, the world is your oyster. There is no ceiling. I firmly believe enough of the pieces come together, enough of the questions are answered positively that this team reaches its full potential as a national title contender. More granularly, the defense will take a step back, but I would reckon still a top-20 KenPom defense, at worst. This will be more than be off-set by a huge leap offensively, from 68th in KenPom a year ago, to top-20 on offense as well. If you’re top-20 on both sides of the court, you’re going to have a chance to do huge things.

Prediction:  26-5 (17-3), 1st Place

Better Know a Team: Providence

Pictured: One dope mascot and the creepiest mascot in America.

The talent appears to be there, which means this year is all about Kim English and his revamped staff. Can they get PC back to the tournament for the first time in the English era?

Last Year’s Record: 12-20 (6-14)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 57 (107)
KenPom: 48 (96)
EvanMiya: 56 (99)

Will Kim remain confused? Or will he figure it out this year?

Coach: Kim English, 3rd season. After a first season that saw English’s Friars get snubbed for the NCAAT on the back of some metrics bullshit, last season went totally sideways. A team that entered with NCAAT aspirations last season, watched those start to flounder in Atlantis, where they lost all 3 games, including to A10 squad Davidson, and it wouldn’t be their only struggle with an A10 squad. The Friars did bounce back with a convincing win at home over BYU. That game was the first of only 3 that Bryce Hopkins would play for the Friars last season, as his knee injury lingered (wink wink).

But alas, the BYU win may have just been the Dunk aura intimidating a far-flung and unfamiliar opponent, than a sign the Friars had turned a corner. The Friars promptly followed up the BYU win with another loss to in-state rival, and A10 member URI. After a gritty road win at DePaul to open Big East play, the Friars’ A10 woes continued with a loss at Mohegan Sun to St. Bonaventures, followed by 3 straight losses to 3 of the 4 best teams in the Big East last season.

Things got testy in Friartown as things went south. Kim does himself no favors with the way he carries himself off the court, constantly seeming pissed off at the media and the larger world. If not for some of the non-basketball stuff, and Kim’s seeming arrogance, Friars fans may have had some patience for a coach who had a couple of solid freshmen in Ryan Mela and Oswin Erhunmwunse. As it stands, it is only year 3 in Friartown, but it certainly feels longer, and Kim has effectively turned up the heat on his own seat higher than it might have otherwise been. Does he get fired? I don’t believe so, unless things go horrifically off the rails. But miss the NCAAT again, with a talented roster, and the natives will be getting restless.

Personally, I’m a believer in Kim. If you read my conference preview, you’d see I picked Kim for COY on the back of an NCAAT bid for the Friars. Why is that? Well, Kim’s best season ever was undoubtedly his first season at PC. That season featured the best defense of Kim’s career, clocking in at 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, with a 95.4. This year’s team has the pieces to be very good defensively once again, and the offense will consist of more than just “let Devin Carter cook.” Kim also added two NBA coaches with strong player development experience to the staff, which should help boost the offense as well. One of those is former PC star Ryan Gomes. The other is Bryan Tibaldi. Tibaldi is supposed to bring strong offensive chops, and may be just what the offense needs to breakthrough under Kim.

Oswin ErHIMwunse

Roster:

Starters
PG: Jason Edwards (Gr.), 6’1” 180 lbs.
SG: Corey Floyd Jr. (R-Sr.), 6’4” 208 lbs.
SF: Jaylin Sellers (Gr.), 6’5” 205 lbs.
PF: Duncan Powell (Gr.), 6’8” 240 lbs.
C: Oswin Erhunmwunse (So.) 6’10” 235 lbs.

Rotation Bench
PG Daquan Davis (So.), 6’1” 185 lbs.
F Ryan Mela (So.), 6’7” 205 lbs.
F Jamier Jones (Fr.), 6’6” 218 lbs.
G/F Stefan Vaaks (Fr.), 6’7” 206 lbs.
F/C Cole Hargrove (Sr.) 6’8” 245 lbs.
G Rich Barron (Jr.), 6’5” 225 lbs.

Bench Warmers
C Peteris Pinnis (So.), 7’0” 260 lbs.
G/F Jaylen Harrell (Fr,) 6’5” 210 lbs.

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/8, 4pm vs. Va. Tech (N), Peacock (technically neutral, at Mohegan Sun)
11/14, 9pm at Colorado, ESPN+
11/22, 4pm vs. Penn. St. (N), truTV (technically neutral, at Mohegan Sun)

Rady’s Children Invitational
11/27, 5:30pm vs. Wisconsin (N), FS1
11/28, TBD vs. TCU or Florida, Fox

12/6, 12noon vs. URI, truTV


What’s Old: I’m going to start at the 5 with a player that I think is poised for a monster breakout year, Oswin Erhunmwunse (just don’t ask me to spell his name without help or pronounce it). Oswin was top-100 in the 247 Sports Composite last season, and in 20 mpg he posted 6.8/5.6/0.2, and added a whopping 1.6 bpg, shooting 72.3% from the field (for Oswin’s sake I’ll leave his 3-pt FT percentages out lol). Those figures work out to 13.5 pp40, 11.2 rp40 and 3.2 bp40. It’s clear to see why Oswin could be poised for a breakout year. He’s going to get 7-12 more mpg this season–if he can stay on the floor, more on that in a minute–and he possesses an excellent combination of strength, athleticism and skill. That manifests itself around the rim, where he takes 84.6% of his FGA, good for 99th percentile, and finishes them at a 74.1% clip, good for 91st percentile, per CBB Analytics. A little further away from the basket (> 4.5 ft) but still in the paint, Oswin’s skills still shine, as he boasts a 57.9% FG% in that area, good for 93rd percentile.

Oswin also improved greatly as the year wore on. He started all 19 games from 12/31/24 through the BET loss to Butler, and posted 8.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg and 2.0 bpg in 24.4 minutes across those starts. In that BET loss he was a bright spot for Providence, absolutely abusing Andre Screen and Bode Kapke for 16 & 11, with 2 blocks on 7/9 shooting and 2/2 from the stripe.

With his ability to protect the rim, Oswin is a force defensively, and will anchor the Friar defense from the paint. He posted a 1.1 DRAPM per CBB Analytics and DBPM of 2.7 per Sports Reference last season, and with a better surrounding cast and a year of development, I’d expect that to improve significantly. The Friars were 4.7 pp100 better defensively when Oswin was on the floor.

Also returning for the Friars is guard Corey Floyd, Jr.. Floyd redshirted at UConn in 2021-22, and has seen his role gradually increase and while his game improved, albeit in less of a straight line in his 3 seasons at PC. Now a senior, Floyd looks to take one last jump in production. Rather than just give last season’s stats, let’s look at his full tenure:

2022-23: 9.6 mpg 2.6/1.2/0/4 on 44.6/41.9/84.6
2023-24: 23.3 mpg 4.8/3.0/1.2 on 34.1/24.7/69.4
2024-25: 28.9 mpg 9.2/4.8/2.0 on 43.1/32.4/80.0

So that 2nd year was a bit of a step back on a per40 basis, but he took a pretty health jump last season, earning 25 starts in 29 appearances. One area I’m sure he’ll look to improve is shooting. He’s a career 77.5% FT shooter, so the mechanics are there. If he can get up to 35% he becomes a much bigger weapon offensively for the Friars.

Defensively, Floyd is mediocre. He doesn’t really fill out either of the defensive impact box score stats (steals or blocks), but he’s a very good rebounder for a guard, posting nearly 5 rpg last season.

Next up on the return list is forward Ryan Mela. Mela had a solid freshman campaign, posting 6.4/5.2/1.9 on 45.8/30.0/57.4. Pretty damn good for an unheralded 3-star freshman, and a good find by English and staff. If Mela wants to earn his minutes this year, he’ll need to be a better shooter. He’s not great at the rim, shooting just 57.1% (34th percentile) per CBB analytics. He’s better in the paint away from the rim (>4.5 ft.) where he takes 39.4% of his shots (97th percentile) and hits at a 49.2% clip (77th percentile). He does have good shot selection, generally eschewing the mid range, taking just 5.2% of his shots there last season. If he’s going to improve from deep, the key is likely getting him looks where he’s most comfortable: in the corner. Last year Mela shot 40% from the corner, but took just 6.5% of his shots from there, versus 12.9% of his shots coming as above-the-break 3s, where he shot just 25%. Mela’s ability to hit 3s may prove crucial when Floyd and newcomer Daquan Davis are on the floor, as they’ll need him to help maintain the spacing.

Mela is also solid defensively. The Friars were 3 points better defensively with Mela on the floor, and he sported the best D-rating among rotation players. He’s a very good rebounder and is likely to get over 1 steal per game this coming season after nearly getting there in 19 mpg last season, further improving his defensive impact.

The last returnee is junior Rich Barron. Barron is a 6’5” wing who averaged 19 mpg for the Friars last season, posting 5.2/2.3/0.6 on 35.0/33.7/54.5. Barron took a step back last season after being an All-Big East Freshman in 2023-24, losing nearly 10 percentages points in FG rate, coming almost equally as nearly 10 percentage points worse from deep and nearly 10 percentage points worse from 2. His per-40 stat line was basically flat aside from averaging 1.4 more rp40, and being more inefficient, shooting 2 more FGAp40 but scoring basically the same. If he wants to play big minutes this year, Barron needs to take a big jump, as the Friars have added significant transfer pieces at guard (Jason Edwards and Daquan Davis) and wing (Sellers), as well as freshmen Stefan Vaaks and Jamier Jones, and he’s also going to find himself behind fellow returnee Mela.

What’s New: Providence brings in 5 transfers, headlined by guard Jason Edwards. Edwards transfers in from Vanderbilt, but before that he played 2 years of JUCO and 1 year at North Texas. He is a bucket, with a D1 career line of 18.0/2.2/1.4, with nearly 1 spg in 28.9 mpg on 42.9/35.1/81.9 shooting. Edwards did not miss a beat stepping up from the AAC into the historically great SEC last season. His per-40 scoring rate and shooting percentages actually improved, pp40 going from 23.5 to 27.1, FG% from 42.5% to 43.5% and 3-point percentage from 35.0 to 35.3. There is absolutely no question that Edwards will be the engine driving this offense, much like Devin Carter 2 years ago. The difference is Edwards will have significantly more help, from Oswin, Mela and the other newcomers.

Edwards is also a 2-way player. The Commodores were 4.7 pp100 better defensively with him on the floor. (and 5 pp40 better offensively). He had a DRAPM of 0.9, 73rd percentile per CBB Analytics. Not elite by any stretch, but very good on a Vanderbilt team that was much more offense-oriented, ranking just 79th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom last season.

Looking at all that you might say “well why did he only play 25.2 mpg for the Commodores last year if he was that good. Welp, first year head coach Mark Byington ran a large rotation, with 9 players appearing in 29 or more games and averaging at least 18 mpg. Edwards was actually 2nd in mpg, just below PG AJ Hoggard’s 26 mpg, and just above Tyler Nickel’s and Devin McGlockton’s 25 mpg. Honestly, not to go off on a tangent, but Byington’s minutes distro last year is fascinating. I’m not sure you could have split this up this way if you tried, but the MPG for the 9 rotation men: 26.0, 25.2, 25.0 (2x) 20.4, 20.3, 20.2 and 18.2 (2x). Wild stuff.

In any event, Edwards is a known commodity, who will instantly improve the offense, without sacrificing anything defensively. To put in perspective how much of an offensive impact Edwards might make, if he was on Providence last year his 27.1 pp40 would’ve been the best among rotation players by nearly 10 points over Abdur-Rahim (17.8) and Bensley Joseph (17.7). It cannot be understated just what a difference Edwards will make offensively.

Sixth Man of the Year? Maybe!

In making my Devin Carter comparison up above, I noted he’d have a lot better surrounding cast. A fellow transfer contributor that brings a lot to the table offensively is Daquan Davis out of Florida State. Let’s start with the obvious: FSU was hot steaming ass last year in the hottest, steamiest ass of a “power” conference, if you could call it that. The end result was the retirement of legendary head coach Leonard Hamilton. Davis was a bright spot for the ‘noles as a true freshman. English and the Friars also recruited Davis outta Overtime Elite in 2023 through ‘24, picking up 3 Crystal Balls along the way, but obviously lost out to the ‘noles. Davis has now seen the error of his ways.

For the ‘noles, Davis posted 8.8/2.3/2.5, adding 1.1 spg and 0.6 bpg, on 36.1/27.9/82.6 shooting, in 25 mpg. Which underscores why I think he was undervalued as a transfer (212th in 247’s Transfer Rankings): he was very inefficient as a scorer. He’ll need to improve those percentages if he wants to be a major contributor. Some of that will be improving shot diet. He only gets to the rim for 24.2% of his shots (52nd percentile among guards per CBB analytics), content to settle for farther paint shots (20.5%, 72nd percentile) and mid-range 2’s (16%, 75th percentile), with a Rim + 3 attempt rate of just 63.5%, (25th percentile). The other part will be skill development. The FT rate, on over 100 attempts last season, would indicate he has the mechanics to be a good shooter.

Defensively, he brings a lot to the table. His sp40 of 1.7 puts him in the 72nd percentile among guards, and his 0.9 bp40 is in the 94th percentile among guards. Truly impressive, and evidence of his athleticism, to see a 6’1” guard averaging almost a full block per 40. He’s a gritty and aggressive defender, the type of player who loves to be in an opposing guard’s pocket at all times. When he gets beat of the dribble, he makes up for it in recovery and those blocks. In my opinion, he will thrive on this end under Kim. His ceiling for PC will depend upon improving his offensive efficiency. I may be higher on Davis than most, but he has significant 6MOY potential.

While I jumped right to Davis, he was only the 4th highest rated player in the PC transfer class per 247 Sports. After Edwards, the 2nd highest rated is Jaylin Sellers, coming in at 93rd in the transfer portal. This will be quite confusing for announcers when PC and SJU meet, particularly because Jaylin Sellers and Oziyah Sellers may very well guard one another for the bulk of the game. Sellers is another player who comes in with solid high major experience after transferring from UCF, where he had a stellar 2023-24 season, before suffering a preseason injury that saw him stretchered off from an exhibition versus FGCU in October 2024, he attempted to come back in December, played sparingly across 3 games, starting and getting 21 minutes in a January 5 game vs. Kansas, before packing it in. It’s unclear to me if he suffered a new injury, or if it was the same lingering issue from the preseason. The hope is that he can stay healthy for the Friars.

Sellers Played his first 2 seasons at Ball State, posting 13.5/3.7/0.8 on 49.0/45.0/75.7 in 30.0 mpg in his sophomore season. He didn’t skip a beat scoring-wise making the jump to the Big12 (the same year UCF made the jump) posting 15.9/3.6/1.1 in 31.9 mpg, but the difference was a drop-off in efficiency, shooting 41.9/29.7/82.9. He can get mid-range happy at times, taking 20.6% of his shots from the mid-range his junior year at UCF, 82nd percentile among guards. He took only 21.6% of his shots at the rim, 45th percentile among guards, but he hit at the rim to the tune of 71.1% (90th percentile for guards). Now, if PC can convince sellers to drive more frequently, and he gets back to even just 35-38% 3-point shooting, he will be another huge weapon offensively for Kim’s revamped offense.

Defensively, Sellers is fantastic. In 2023-24 UCF’s defense was over a full pp100 better with him on the floor versus the bench, which doesn’t sound like much until you consider that UCF had the 21st ranked defense that season, with a KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency of 95.6. On a team full of great defenders he had the 3rd best DRAPM, 3.3, 98th percentile among all players per CBB Analytics.

Between the Oswin, Floyd, Jr., Edwards and Sellers we’ve covered 4/5ths of the starting lineup, and the 6th man in Davis. Rounding out the starting 5 is power forward Duncan Powell a grad student outta Georgia Tech. Powell has gradually climbed up, starting with NC A&T in the Big South, moving up to the CAA with NC A&T before heading out to Sacramento State in the Big Sky in 2023-24, and finally landing at Georgia Tech last season. Let’s compare is Sac State and Ga. Tech years:

Sac State: 12.1/7.0/2.0 on 49.2/28.6/68.5 in 26.5 mpg
Ga. Tech: 12.2/5.4/0.8 on 44.1/35.8/68.7 in 29.5 mpg

Admittedly, I did not watch much Ga. Tech, but what I see in these numbers is someone who probably struggled a bit dealing with the size at the high major level, but who made up for it by greatly improving his shot. Not only did his percentage go up from 28.6 to 35.8, but he drastically increased his attempts per game as well, going from 1.7 3pa/game to 4.8 3pa/game. Kudos to the Ga. Tech staff for spotting this diamond in the rough and coaching him up. His ability to spread the floor from the 4 will be huge. Like his likely back-up Mela, he loves the corner, ranking in the 90th percentile for corner 3-point attempt rate, and hitting at a 38.8% clip, vs. just 26.5% of his shots being above-the-break 3s, 47th percentile, hitting at a respectable 33.3% rate, all stats per CBB Analytics. He’s also got a quality shot diet, ranking in the 79th percentile in Rim + 3 attempt rate, with 82% of his shots falling in that category.

Defensively, he is very strong, capable of guarding bigger players. He does not provide much in the way of rim protection. Generally though, he’s just not great defensively, with the Yellow Jackets coming in 3.8 pp100 better defensively with Powell on the bench.

The final newcomer is another frontcourt piece, F/C Cole Hargrove. Hargove joins the Friars for his senior year, after having a breakout campaign in 2024-25 for Drexel. He went from playing just 4.2 mpg as a sophomore, to 32.5 mpg, starting all 33 games in which he appeared, posting 9.9/7.5/1.7, with 1.9 bpg on 58.6/20/7/67.6. Just ignore that 3-pt percentage, its not relevant, he’s not a shooter, attempting just 29 3’s last season. Offensively, Hargrove works under the basket, where he takes 53.8% (84th percentile) of his attempts at hits at a rate of 76% (92nd percentile), per CBB Analytics. Layups and dunks constitute 57% of his attempts (77th percentile) per CBB Analytics. He was in the 99th percentile for offensive rebounding (3.0 per game), and 14% of his FGA were putback attempts (83rd percentile) per CBB Analytics.

Where Hargrove really has the chance to make an impact is defensively. His 1.9 blocks per game were good for the 99th percentile nationwide. He pulled down 4.5 defensive rebounds per game (97th percentile) per CBB Analytics. The Dragons were 3.7 pp100 better defensively with Hargrove on the floor.

That’s a solid 8-man rotation with the returners (minus Barron) and the transfers. To that group, the Friars add a quartet of freshman. First up are 2 Europeans hailing from the same league: the Latvia-Estonia Basketball League. The more exciting of the 2 is Stefan Vaaks, who played for BC Kalev/Carmo in Estonia last season. He’s 6’7”, so he’s big for a guard, and can definitely play and defend at the 3 as well. As is frequently the case with Euros, Vaaks comes in as a 20-year-old freshmen, bring the experience that comes with playing professionally in Europe. He was outstanding in the FIBA Euro Cup, shooting 38.7% from deep. He’s also got experience as a ball handler, and is crafty shot creator and finisher at the rim. The scouting reports indicate his defense may be lack, stating that he occasionally struggles with smaller quicker guards, which will be something to monitor.

The other Latvia-Estonia Basketball League hooper is 7’0” Peteris Pinnis out of VEF Riga. He did most of his scoring in and around the rim for Riga, and does not project to play much this season, sitting 3rd on the center depth chart.

Of the 2 American freshman to join the Friars, Jamier Jones has the most impact potential year 1. Jones ranked 40th in the class of 2025 per the 247 Sports Composite. He signed a letter of intent for the Friars in the November 2024 early period. He’s a 6’6” forward who is strong, athletic and has a high basketball IQ. According to Adam Finkelstein of 247 he has a “junkyard dog mentality” and is the type of “physical driver who seeks out contact.” He’s not the best shooter, but his strength and athleticism will be the key to success on both ends.

Jaylen Harrell is a 6’5” forward ranked 117th in the 247 Composite Rankings, who, like Jones, signed during the November 2024 early period. Harrell provides more length and shooting than Jones, but lacks footspeed. This hurts him defensively, and he in getting to the rim, but loves the mid-post and mid-range. He can also struggle with inefficiency at times, playing a volume game. He’ll have the ability to learn and grow this year with a ton of big guard and forward options ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Optimist’s Take: These Friars develop into a defensive juggernaut, as every player on this roster, headlined by Jaylin Sellers, grades out to be a plus defender per the advanced metrics. Kim has produced better defenses than offenses, and despite the staff additions, I expect this year to be no different. Offensively, the existing personnel take jumps, headlined by Mela and Oswin, Jason Edwards does his thing. Sellers finds a shooting form more akin to his Ball State days than his full year at UCF, and the offense functions quite well shooting from deep and relying on Oswin and Hargrove to clean the offensive glass and score via putbacks.

The Hater’s Take: Kim English actually just stinks as a coach. In 5 seasons, he’s only beat his KenPom preseason rank 1-time (of course the Hopkins injury hurt the last 2 seasons). Sellers becomes an offensive liability and/or can’t stay healthy. Hargrove’s defense suffers against stronger competition. The development of Mela and Oswin stagnates, Corey Floyd remains inefficient and “meh” as a player. The staff additions do not translate to an improved offense. Things start going sideways, the team checks-out sensing that their coach is a dead-man walking.

Fan Pulse: Friar.

Bottom Line: As stated above, I am super high on this Friars squad. I think the ceiling is very high. I could definitely see them leapfrogging Creighton, and maybe even one of UConn or SJU if either falters, and I’d be shocked if they fell below 6th. As it is, I have them 4th right now. I think they make the tournament with ease, and maybe even as the higher seed in their first round game. Renewed faith in Kim English abounds.

Prediction: 21-10 (11-9), 4th Place

Better Know a Team: Marquette

It’s already year 5 of the Shaka era. He had and developed elite talent his first 4 seasons, with Kam Jones leading the offense for the last 3 years. Who will step up offensively for the Golden Eagles this season?

Last Year’s Record: 23-11 (13-7), NCAAT 7 seed, upset by New Mexico in the first round

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 53 (30)
KenPom: 47 (29)
EvanMiya: 47 (33)

Shaka leading by example, playing the frenetic defense he demands of his players. Such a great leader.

Coach: Shaka “Sinatra” Smart, 5th year. Sinatra because he’s doing it his way. Shaka is one of the only coaches in the country to completely eschew the portal, choosing to rely solely on high school recruiting, internal development and retention. So far, his tenure has been a success, but it should be noted his best years came with players that were, in fact, transfers in Tyler Kolek and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, both of whom are currently in the league. Of course, that was Shaka’s first season, so he had a lot of roster spots to fill. He also brought in senior Kur Kuath that year, and in 2022-23 he brought in a single, lightly used transfer, Zach Wrightsil. 2025 marks the 3rd straight off-season that Shaka has completely eschewed the portal.

In his first portal-free off-season, ahead of the 2023-24 season, Shaka had a phenomenal season, going 27-10 while reaching the Sweet 16 and finishing 13th in KenPom. Last year was not as good, with Marquette going 23-11, losing in the first round of the NCAAT and finishing 29th in KenPom. The interesting not is that Shaka has not beaten his pre-season KenPom since 2022-23, when he crushed it, finishing 10th from a projection of 76th. In 2023-24 they were projected 11, finished 13th and 2024-25 projected 22, finished 29th. This season Marquette is projected 47th.

Shaka’s approach can’t help but beg the question, “what if?” While retention and commitment to your players is admiral, and there is something to be said for continuity from an on-court perspective, the best programs and coaches seem to be focusing on retention and development with supplementation (see Hurley, Danny). If Danny has a hole in his roster, or a guy who didn’t develop as well as he would have liked, he goes out and plugs the hole. He’s done it this off-season to fill the gap at PG. What if Shaka had brought in a better defensive, more traditional center to allow Gold to slide to the 4 at times? Would Marquette have been better last season? Probably. But that’s just my opinion.

I listed Shaka as “lukewarm” in my coaching seat temperature check. I may be overstating it, but if Marquette struggles this year, and Shaka’s philosophy looks like the issue, it’ll be very interesting to see if the heat gets turned up for next season, and whether Shaka softens on his anti-portal stance. Or perhaps this is just a restocking and developing year, where Marquette will be down relative to the first few seasons of Shaka, but sets themselves up for big things in 2026-27.

Roster:

Starters
PG: Sean Jones (R-Jr.), 5’10” 185 lbs.
SG: Chase Ross (Sr.), 6’5” 210 lbs.
SF: Zaide Lowery (Jr.), 6’5” 205 lbs.
PF: Royce Parham (So.), 6’8” 235 lbs.
C: Ben Gold (Sr.), 6’11”

Rotation Bench
F/G Tre Norman (Jr.), 6’4” 205 lbs.
F Damarius Owens (So.), 6’7” 205 lbs.
C Caedin Hamilton (R-So.), 6’9” 250 lbs.
PG Nigel James (Fr.), 6’0” 185 lbs.
G Adrien Stevens (Fr.), 6’4” 210 lbs.

Bench Warmers
SF Michael Phillips II (Fr.), 6’6” 195 lbs.
F Ian Miletic (Fr.), 6’7” 200 lbs.
C Joshua Clark (R-Fr.), 7’1” 235 lbs.
C Sheek Pearson (Fr.) 6’11” 200 lbs. (Redshirting)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/9, 12pm CT v. Indiana (N), ESPN
11/15, 1pm CT v. Maryland, Peacock
11/19, 6:30pm CT v. Dayton, truTV
11/28, 1pm CT v. Oklahoma (N), NBC
12/6, 1pm CT at Wisconsin, FS1
12/13, 1pm CT at Purdue, Peacock

What’s Old: The continuity kings return 7/10 players that averaged more than 5 mpg in at least 29 games. Of course the 3 losses are the 3 leading scorers: Kam Jones (19.2), David Joplin (14.2) and Stevie Mitchell (10.7), something which has not happened in the Shaka Smart era. Replacing that scoring will be key, as the defense is likely to be high quality once again.

Let’s start with the highest returning scorer, Chase Ross. Ross has steadily improved each season. Before we dig into that, let’s discuss his line from last season, 10.5/3.8/2.1 on 46.6/36.5/75.4. Offensively, he’s versatile. Bouncy and athletic, he can get to the rim and he can shoot the 3. He sports a Rim + 3 attempt rate of 80.5%, 76th percentile in the country, a function of Shaka’s metrics-focused coaching, as every player who played at least 100 minutes last season posted a Rim + 3 rate north of 72%. Defensively, Ross posted the second best D-rating among rotation players last season, 100.9, and second best DBPM as well (4.3). One reason is Ross uses his length to really gum up opposing offenses. I’d wager he’s at or near the top of the “deflections” stat that Shaka famously tracks internally, and he generated 1.8 steals per game last season, 98th percentile nationally.

Now, about that progression, let’s get some comparisons from recent 4-year players who were impact players at Marquette in their senior years, and let’s focus on PP40 progression over 4 years, to account for fluctuations in playing time:

Metrically beautiful.

Oso Ighodaro: 6.3–12.2–14.7–16.5
Tyler Kolek: 9.1–16.0–18.6
Kam Jones: 15.9–20.2–23.7–22.7
David Joplin: 16.2–19.4–15.6–17.9
Stevie Mitchell: 10.3–12.1–13.4–15.7

The senior year to junior year jumps under Shaka average 1.6. The largest jump was Kolek’s 2.6. On a per game basis Kolek gained 2.4 from junior to senior year. Joplin and Mitchell each saw 2.3 point jumps, but each benefitted from a high profile departure from the year before (Ighodaro and Kolek to the league). All of which is to raise the question: how much of a jump can we expect from Ross? He was already playing 30 mpg last season, so there aren’t really many more minutes to be had. Can we see an improve of 2-3 ppg? Sure, but that covers a fraction of Kam Jones’ production, to say nothing of David Joplin.

Joining Ross in the backcourt is Sean Jones, who returns after 18 months rehabbing an ACL tear. Jones was back in practice early in calendar year 2025, but they elected to hold him out last season to take a medical redshirt, preserve a full year of eligibility, and fully heal. Marquette is hoping that time focusing on rehabbing and practice will pay dividends for Jones this season.

In his 2 seasons so far, Jones posted 4.3/1.0/1.4, with 0.6 steals, on 41.8/28.9/68.4 shooting in 13.5 mpg. In the 16 games in 2023-24 before his injury, Jones posted 5.8/1.5/2.0/0.9 in just 16.2 mpg. That works out to 14.4 pp40, 4.9 ap40 and 2.3 sp40. Not too shabby. He’s got a great handle and very good vision, he can find teammates from all over the court. If there’s a weakness, it’s in his shooting from deep. He’ll need to greatly improve in that area if he’s going to step into the shoes of Kam Jones. Defensively, those steal figures pop. He’s a menace on the ball, a trait that serves him well in Shaka’s system.

From the progression standpoint, Jones posted 11.9 pp40 as a freshman, and 14.4 pp40 as a sophomore. It’s possible he covers the Stevie Mitchell scoring (15.7 pp40/10.7 ppg), and maybe a bit more. He’ll also be running the point, which may be a big ask for someone who is coming off a major injury, to both run the offense and increase his scoring production. Defensively, Jones is another ball hawk, who averaged almost a steal per game in just 16 mpg. He posted a DBPM of 3.5 in the 16 games he played in 2023-24 before his injury.

Next up, a pair of juniors who will be battling for minutes on the wing. In the pole position heading into the season is Zaide Lowery. For my money, Lowery is the guy who is most likely to improve on this roster. He has the edge to start over Tre Norman because Shaka appeared to trust Lowery more last season, giving him 15.8 mpg to Norman’s 8.9 (virtually unchanged from Norman’s freshman year).

Lowery posted 4.1/3.0/0.2 on 47.1/37.5/71.4. The per-40 numbers last season: 10.4/7.7/0.6, with 1.7 steals per 40. Pretty good. The O-rating also JUMPS off the page, with his 120.8 rating being second among rotation players last season, trailing only Stevie Mitchell’s 122.8. Lowery is also a solid 2-way player, posting the 3rd best D-rating among rotation players, 101.3 (Mitchell posted 98.7 and Chase Ross posted 100.9).

Norman brings decidedly less proven ability to the table, posting 1.9/1.5/0.5 in 8.9 mpg on 34.4/18.8/50.0. Pretty weak offensively. Defeinsively, Norman fares better. He’s a tenacious, physical and stifling defender, sporting a 73rd percentile steal rate.

In the frontcourt, sophomore Royce Parham will likely start at the 4, where he’ll compete with fellow sophomore Damarius Owens for minutes. Like the Lowery/Norman dynamic, Shaka showed a clear preference for Parham last season, as he got 14.8 mpg to Owens’ 9.5. Both will be looking to step into the OMax/Oso/Joplin shoes. Parham posted 5.1/2.2/0.4, with 0.6 steals and 0.4 blocks on 40.7/28.8/64.0. Per 40 that works out to 13.8/6.0/1.0/1.7/1.0. Needless to say, just getting Parham more minutes will make him a pretty damn productive and useful piece this season. If he worked on his 3-point shot this off-season, he could have a downright breakout, MIP type season.

Owens posted just 2.6/1.2/0.5 on 34.3/34.4/83.3. The biggest area where he is better than Parham is that shooting, but something something, sample sizes (11/32 for Owens). His FT shooting would seem to indicate he’s a good shooter, regardless of the sample sizes.

Defensively, both Parham and Owens graded out as among the worst defenders on the roster from a metrics standpoint, but given the quality of the defense, that still makes them easily plus defenders. Parham likely has to slight edge due to his size, but Owens more than holds his own defensively.

Even more metrically beautiful

Ben Gold returns as the starting 5. Gold is entering his senior year, and I think at this point is a mostly finished product. You know what you’re going to get: a stretch 5 who can play really good defense away from the rim, but does not provide much in the way of rim protection, and will struggle guarding more-physical bigs. It’s no small problem, as this season there’s a bunch of physical 5s—Zuby Ejiofor, Tarris Reed, Oswin Ehrhunmwuse, N.J. Benson , Godswill Erheriene and Drayton Jones all come to mind.

Of course, while Gold may struggle on the defensive end with those bigs, many of them will struggle to guard him away from the rim on offense. Funny how mismatches work both ways, eh? To be sure, Zuby and Reed, and maybe Benson are more than capable of guarding the perimeter, but the others will struggle to defend Gold’s perimeter game. And make no mistake, that’s where Gold thrives. He shot 50.5% of his shots were above-the-break 3s (89th percentile), 21.7% were corner 3s (90th Percentile), hitting 37.1% of his 3s (75th percentile) all per CBB Analytics. Gold is fully boat in to the metrically-optimal offense, and almost completely eschews the mid-range, sporting a Rim + 3 attempt rate of 96% (99th percentile). In 25.3 mpg last season, Gold posted 7.4/4.3/0.9 on 43.4/37.1/75.8 shooting.

Caedin Hamilton was hyped up last season, earning a late-June “well embedded moles in Milwaukee…” Tweet from Jon Rothstein. The Hype has once again returned, with Shaka stating at Media Day that Hamilton was the most improved player: “[h]e’s so much more confident and we’re excited to see how he does. The vision here is clear: while shorter, Hamilton is much bigger and stronger than Gold. He has the athleticism and length to thrive in Shaka’s defense, and can defensive hole left by Gold's interior softness. The other reason for optimism, this will be Hamilton’s 3rd season in Milwaukee, after redshirting his freshman year. That’s a lot of time to develop and grow under Shaka. Offensively is where Hamilton will need to improve. He’s a much more traditional center than Gold, as he does not have much of a perimeter shot. He played just 6.3 mpg last year as a redshirt sophomore, posting per 40 figures of: 9.6/7.8/3.7 on 38.6/0.0/52.6. Marquette will really need him to clean the glass, an area where they’ve really struggled under Shaka, ranking 244th in total rebounds per game last season per Sports Reference, and 300th in defensive rebounds per game.

Joining Gold and Hamilton at the 5 is Joshua Clark, a redshirt freshman. Clark sat last season, and does not figure to crack the rotation this year barring injury.

What’s New: A quartet of freshman, headlined by a pair of 4-star guards: Adrien Stevens and Nigel James. James is a 4-star PG outta LuHi, ranking 88th in the 247 Sports Composite ranking. He’s a strong 6-feet tall, with a 6’3” wingspan, so he’s got the length Shaka craves to be a super disruptive guard in this system, and the scouting reporter are he’s every bit the aggressive, disruptive defender you want him to be. Offensively, he can get down hill, but will need to work on being more consistent with his shot.

Stevens is a 6’4” guard outta The Bullis School in Maryland. He’s a 4-star ranked 131st in the class of 2025. Similar to James, he has the physical tools that fit Shaka’s defensive system, but will probably need a bit more polish on the offensive end.

Frankly, I am never very high on kids ranked in this range as freshmen. For instance, in the class of 2024, per the 247 Sports Composite Kayvaun Mulready of Georgetown was 68th last year. Josiah Moseley of Villanova was 74th. Marquette’s own Damarius Owens was 76th. St. John’s Jaiden Glover was 79th. UConn’s Isaiah Abraham was 92nd. Marquette’s own Royce Parham was 95th. While ranks are certainly subjective and political, they’re not completely useless. Players in this range are the kind of players perfect for Shaka: guys that have room to grow, improve and develop, and will be in the program for multiple years. I just don’t expect such players to make a major impact year 1. 

Given the logjam at forward, freshman Michael Phillips II and Ian Miletic are unlikely to crack the rotation. Phillips is a 6’6” SF out of North Carolina, clocking in as a 4-star, ranked 105 per the 247 Sports Composite. Miletic is a 6’7” SF from Illinois, also rated 4-stars, and ranked 111th in the class of 2025.

Finally, center Sheek Pearson committed to the Golden Eagles in May as part of the class of 2026, subsequently reclassified to 2025. Pearson ranks 70th in the Class of 2025 per the 247 Sports Composite. He’s tall and long, sporting a 7’1” wingspan to go with his 6’11” frame. In line with Shaka’s development-focused philosophy, Pearson is redshirting, but it is certainly better for him to develop at Marquette than take another year of HS. If he develops, he could be in a wide-open competition for minutes at the 5 next year with Hamilton and Clark.

The Optimist’s Take: The Shaka player development train just keeps on rolling. Despite losing the one constant that kept them humming through the departures of other stars, Shaka has guys like Ross and Jones ready to step right in and fill the void. Ben Gold finds his big boy pants to D-up on stronger centers like Zuby Ejiofor and Tarris Reed. The defense remains top-25 caliber, and they get enough offensively–particularly in transition off of the TOs they will almost certainly generate–despite losing their top-3 scorers to once again be a top-3 or -4 team in the Big East, and comfortably make the NCAAT.

The Hater’s Take: Not once in this run of Shaka’s have the Golden Eagles lost this much: all 3 of their leading scorers and their leading assist man. Kam Jones has been the year over year constant, leading Marquette in scoring for 3 straight seasons, and leading them in assists last year. Despite having 22 months to heal and most of this calendar year to practice with the team, dating back to last season, Sean Jones shows rust and is slow to get up to speed. Chase Ross is what he is: a 10ish ppg scorer. Ben Gold continues to get abused by stronger big men. Parham and Owens don’t take the necessary offensive jumps. Marquette is bubbalicious all season.

What portaaaalll??

Fan Pulse: “Portal? What portaaaalll?! Shaka’s the best coach around!” Although if you can get a Marquette fan to tell you the truth, most of them are a bit on edge heading into this season, and most are frustrated by Shaka’s refusal to utilize the transfer portal.

Bottom Line: For my money, this season underscores the problem with Shaka’s approach. He’s succeeded to date because he’s brought in high-end talent. Kolek, Jones, Ighodaro and OMax are NBA-caliber talents. He had all 4 of them together and they were great, then OMax left, and the team got a little worse. Then Kolek and Ighodaro left, and the team got noticeably worse. Now Kam Jones departs and…I’m supposed to believe they get better? And it’s not just Kam, as Marquette has lost its 2nd and 3rd leading scorers in David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell.

Into that void some combination of Sean Jones coming off a major injury, Ross, Parham, Lowery, Owens, Norman or a freshman is supposed to step up. Not one of those players has had a season as good as the quartet of graduates listed above. To be better than last season, they’ll need at least 2, if not 3 guys to take major steps forward. Ross and Jones, plus one of the other guys. That’s a lot of “ifs” and no obvious, proven stars to plug-in.

Put differently, in years past, the transitions made sense, the returning talent was more obviously undeniable. OMax leaving? No worries, Marquette had Ighodaro right behind him, and they still returned their 2 leading scorers in Kolek and Kam Jones. Kolek and Ighodaro leaving? No worries, Kam Jones and Joplin are waiting in the wings, the former once again being their leading scorer. This year, they’ve lost their top-3 scorers. No one on this roster has the proven talent of a guy like Kam Jones, let alone his level of production, which really anchored the last 3 seasons in Milwaukee, and softened the blow of each departure.

Then you consider that even when the proven talent was obviously better, and obvious replacements were right there waiting, this team still took a step back each of the last 2 seasons, peaking at 10 in KenPom in 2022-23, falling slightly to 13, and then to 29 last season. This roster feels poised to drop even further, projected 47th by KenPom. The KenPom ranks have been almost spot on for Shaka’s Golden Eagles the last 2 seasons: 2023-24, projected 11th, finished 13th, and 2025, projected 22th, finished 29th. In fairness, Marquette massively outperformed KenPom’s projections in years 1 & 2: 87th to 56th and 76th to 10th, respectively.

In sum, this is going to be the biggest test of Shaka’s philosophy. On paper, this is the least amount of talent he’s returned during his Marquette tenure. Can he spin a bunch of silver-caliber players into Golden Eagle caliber players?

Thank you, thank you. I’ll be here all season.

But that is the million dollar question for Marquette. Personally, I think this Marquette team is good enough to be just on the right side of the bubble, but I don’t think they’re capable of much beyond that unless things go seriously right with the Parham, Lowery, Owens and Norman group of players. If Shaka can prove me wrong, and crack the top-3 of the Big East, or get better than a 9- or 10-seed in the big dance, I might never doubt the man and his philosophy again, and I’d be the first one calling for him to win Big East Coach of the Year.

Prediction: 19-12 (10-10), 5th Place

Better Know a Team: Georgetown

Maybe Ed’s first 2 seasons were simply practice…

This could be a very telling year for Ed and the Hoyas. If he can get them back at least near the bubble, perhaps there’s hope after all. If not, rumors of Ed’s demise may be greatly understated…

Last Year’s Record: 18-16 (8-12), Crown Quarterfinalist, lost to eventual Crown Champion Nebraska

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 70 (96)
KenPom: 82 (90)
EvanMiya: 67 (93)

May be the last time Ed smiled since arriving to Georgetown.

Coach: Slick Eddie, 3rd Season. I have been very hard on Ed, because I am firmly of the belief that programs do not need to be built slowly in the transfer portal era. Moribund programs get turned around annually. Georgetown needs to look no further than its conference mate St. John’s, who also hired a new head coach 3 off-seasons ago, narrowly missing the NCAAT year 1, and running roughshod over the conference in year 2, en route to a double conference championship. So if you’re an experienced, successful coach, I expect that you’ll be able to turn things around promptly.

Now, Ed Cooley is certainly no Rick Pitino–although Georgetown is certainly paying him as if he were that good—I would have expected Ed to have had Georgetown legitimately threatening for a tournament bid, at worst, in his 2nd year. Instead, Georgetown was as atrocious year 1 as it was under Patrick Ewing, finishing 192nd in KenPom, and going 2-18 in the Big East. Last year saw marked improvement, with the Hoyas logging 8 conference victories, but still finishing just 90th in KenPom. The reason the metrics were not high on the Hoyas? They beat absolutely no body, with their best win being at KenPom 56, Villanova. They only had 2 other wins away from home in the regular season (at lowly ‘Cuse and Seton Hall), before beating Wazzou on a neutral floor in the first round of the Crown.

Do I think Ed is on the hot seat? It’s certainly getting warm. Do I think he needs to prove that this isn’t his retirement job? Absolutely. His body language has not been the best at times. His press conferences have not been the best at times. It occasionally appears like he’d rather be anywhere else. He has the resources to succeed, and the Georgetown brand, the 2 things he presumably left Providence for, so it is fair to ask when will he finally translate those assets into success?

Since they’re both in DC, maybe he can get the name of Trump’s spray tan person so we can nickname him “Orange Julius”

Roster:

Starters
PG: Malik Mack (Jr.), 6’2” 175 lbs.
SG: K.J. Lewis (Jr.), 6’4” 210 lbs.
SF: Langston Love (Gr.), 6’5” 210 lbs.
PF: Caleb Williams (So.), 6’7” 227 lbs.
C: Julius Halaifonua (R-Fr.), 7’0” 259 lbs.

Rotation Bench
PG Jeremiah Williams (Gr.), 6’4” 200 lbs.
SG Kayvaun Mulready (So.), 6’4” 219 lbs.
F/G DeShawn Harris-Smith (Jr.), 6’5” 224 lbs.
PF Isaiah Abraham (So.), 6’7” 205 lbs.
C Vince Iwuchukwu (Sr.), 7’1” 257 lbs.

Bench Warmers
SF Austin Montgomery (Jr.), 6’6” 205 lbs.
PF Jayden Fort (So.), 6’9” 216 lbs.
C Seal Diouf (R-Fr.), 6’9” 255 lbs.

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/7, 6pm at Maryland, FS1
11/15, noon vs. Clemson, Peacock

2025 Terry’s Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational
11/27, 7:30pm vs. Dayton (N), ESPN2
11/28, TBD vs. BYU or Miami (N), ESPN/ESPN2

12/7, 5pm at North Carolina, ESPN

What’s Old: Like DePaul, the Hoyas return a trio of players that are projected to start this season. That group is headlined by Malik Mack. Mack started all 32 games as a sophomore for the Hoyas last season, after playing his freshman year at Harvard. Mack had a very good first season in the nation’s capital, posting 12.9/3.6/4.3 on 38.1/35.5/73.0 shooting in 34.8 mpg. If there’s one knock on him offensively it’s that he was abysmal at the rim, shooting just 50.5% (18th percentile). I think having a year under his belt will help him in this regard, but it’s unlikely he turns into an elite slasher. He once again figures to be an excellent distributor. He had a 22.7% assist rate last season, good for 90th percentile, and his 4.3 assists were good for 97th percentile.

Defensively, Mack still leaves a lot to be desired. The Hoyas were a full 8 points per 100 possessions worse with Mack on the floor, a sample size of 409 possessions, 244 minutes. That’s not great. Mack is a decent disruptor, posting 1.3 steals per game last season. That said, he has trouble with quicker guards. Some of that may also be an adjustment issue, and with a season under his belt, and a full offseason it’s possible he gains some quickness both in anticipation and physical foot speed.

Also returning is PF Caleb Williams. The sophomore appeared in 29 games last season, playing 20.3 mpg and posting 4.3/3.8/0.9 on 44.4/32.6/61.5. Needless to say, his offense was not great. While it’s unclear if Williams can be an elite shooter, 32.6% on 1.5 3-point attempts per game is certainly enough to maintain spacing. If Williams is going to improve offensively, his best bet is to get to the rim, where he shot 63% last season, not great, but good enough, and likely to improve. Williams only took 25% of his shots at the rim last season. Some of that can be attributed to being deployed as more of a spot up shooter, with Peavy and Burks providing more of the slashing from the wing, and guys like Sorber and Fielder taking up space inside, Williams likely wasn’t expected to get to the rim at a high rate. This also goes to the point that if Williams is to improve offensively, shot selection will be a big part of it. He had a Rim + 3 rate of just 64.8% last season, good for 28th percentile per CBB Analytics. While Williams is a pretty good mid-range shooter, 44.4% per CBB Analytics, 79th percentile, he needs to attack the basket better and get himself more 3 point looks, provided he can maintain, or better yet improve, his 3-point percentage.

Defensively, Williams was very solid last season, using his footspeed and size to keep guys in front of him. His DRAPM was 1.8, 88th percentile per CBB Analytics. He was also pretty strong on the glass on both ends, posting 5 defensive rebounds per 40 mins and 2.4 offensive rebounds per 40. We’ll likely see a strong sophomore jump from Williams, which will be huge if the Hoyas are to get back to the NCAAT.

Julius Halaifonua is the last returnee that is likely to start. Halaifonua appeared in Georgetown’s first 6 games last season in a reserve role behind first round draft pick Thomas Sorber, playing 13 mpg, posting a 3.0/2.0/0.7 line on 41.2/25.0/100.0 shooting, before suffering a season-ending ankle fracture. Sorber choosing to stay in the draft, while probably the right decision for Sorber, was a crushing blow to Georgetown. If this team still had Sorber, it would allow Halaifonua a year to continue in that reserve role, and not put pressure on him as he returns from a major injury. Thankfully, the injury has healed in sufficient time for Halaifonua to participate fully in summer workouts and the preseason. He also repped his native New Zealand in the U19 World Cup, posting a line of 10.6/5.4/2.0 and 1.6 bpg in just 19.3 mpg.

While Halaifonua’s numbers in that very limited sample size don’t jump off the page, remember these were the first 6 games for a player transitioning from overseas to the college game. On a per-40 basis, Halaifonua posted 9.1/6.1/2.0 in those 6 games. Of course level of competition matters, but Halaifonua still brought down 3 boards and had a block in his lone game versus a high major program in that span. The point is, he showed flashes. He has the skillset to be a top tier rim protector and defender, and should be solid offensively as an inside-out big, which is important in Cooley’s flex offense. Personally, I love Halaifonua’s game, and I think his breakout will be a huge key to Georgetown’s resurgence this season.

The final “impact” returnee, who is likely to crack the rotation, is Kayvaun Mulready, a 6’4” sophomore guard. He’ll be one of 2 back-up guards, along with newcomer Jeremiah Williams, and therefore figures to see significant time. Last season, Mulready posted a line of 1.4/0.7/0.4 on 30.3/26.1/62.5 in just 8 mpg, across 22 appearances. Mulready is going to need to show a lot more in year 2, given the larger role he’s likely to have. The pedigree and skill set is clearly there, as he was a top-100 4-star out of Worcester Academy in Massachusetts. He’s a big, physical guard, with the ability to guard 1 through 4. Offensively, he wasn’t much of a shooter as a prospect, but that’s certainly an area he can improve. But if you’re looking for signs of encouragement, look no further than the Crown game versus Nebraska, where Mulready posted a line of 9.0/3.0/1.0 on 3/5 shooting, 3/4 from deep. If he can provide games like that consistently, it will be provide some welcome backcourt depth for the Hoyas.

Honestly, Mulready reminds me a lot of former Johnnie and Pirate Dylan Addae-Wusu given his size and physicality. Not someone you want to draw a charge on when he has a full head of steam towards the rim. Defensively, like Addae-Wusu, he can switch up and down the lineup, and create havoc with steals.

There are 3 additional returnees for Ed’s squad, all of whom contributed lightly or not at all on last year’s squad. First, Austin Montgomery, a 6’6” junior forward. Montgomery did not see many meaningful minutes in the regular season, before being pressed into service on a depleted roster in the Crown Invitational. He performed admirably, giving the Hoyas 11 mpg of strong effort across 2 Crown games, but didn’t show anything that would indicate he’s likely to contribute in 2025-26.

Jayden Fort was an unrated local prospect in the class of 2024 out of Jackson-Reed HS in DC. He redshirted last season. Seal Diouf is a 6’9” center, who was a 3-star in the class of 2024, and who also took a redshirt last season. Both Diouf and Fort find themselves in a crowded frontcourt behind Williams and Halaifonua, as well as newcomers Isaiah Abraham and Vince Iwuchukwu, and seem unlikely to crack the rotation in a significant way.

What’s New: Headlining the new additions is guard K.J. Lewis, a junior transfer from Arizona. As a sophomore last season, he posted a line of 10.8/4.6/2.9, adding in 1.3 steals per game, and nearly a block per game (0.8) in 25.8 mpg. Lewis is a really versatile guard, but needs to work on his shooting, as he shot 18.8% from deep last season, 24.5% for his career. He has a career FT percentage of 80.2%, so you would think the shooting mechanics are there, and last year was simply an anomaly, and the 34.1% he shot from deep as a freshman is closer to reality. Frankly, the Hoyas really need Lewis to be a better shooter if they’re to find success this year, as that is one of the weak spots on this roster.

Defensively, Lewis is a stud. He is a high-energy, tenacious defender, as indicated by his blocks and steals figures, and his Hakeem percentage (block % + steal %) of 6.6% had him in the 88th percentile a season ago, and he did it without fouling, having a personal foul efficiency of just 0.84x, good for 84th percentile. His athleticism allows him to contain with the best of them. Arizona was 2.4 pp100p better with Lewis on the floor last season.

Joining Lewis from the Big12 is Baylor transfer Langston Love. Together with Lewis, Love provides some intangibles, namely experience and big game experience at that. Love has been to the NCAAT all 3 years at Baylor, although youth and an ankle injury prevented him from contributing to the first 2 tournaments. Last year love went for 13/3.5/1.0 on 50/33.3/0.0 (no FTA) in 2 games against Mississippi State and Duke. Overall last season, Love posted 8.9/2.8/1.2 on 38.9/32.6/89.2 in 26.4 mpg. The 3-point shooting was not great last year, but he was a 48% shooter in 2023-24 before his ankle injury, shooting 36/75 (3.1 att. per game) that season. For his career he’s a 38.8% 3-point shooter, 88/227. As with Lewis, the Hoyas need Love to be a better shooter than he was last season,  especially when considering that 57.6% of Love’s shots come from deep. Ideally, he can play to his career average of 38.8%, but I think 36%+ will be more than welcomed. Especially when considering that 57.6% of Love’s shots come from deep.

Defensively, I think you just have to live with Love, and perhaps find ways to hide him. Baylor was 10 points worse per 100 possessions with Love on the floor. Yikes.

Backing up Mack at the point is graduate student Jeremiah Williams. Williams enters his 6th season of college having played 2 years at Temple, taken a medical redshirt, and then played 2 years at Rutgers. For his career, Williams has a line of 8.9/3.3/2.0 on 43.5/26.3/66.8, with 1 steal per game in 28.2 mpg. His first year at Rutgers was his best, albeit he only played 12 games, starting 11, after returning from injury, posting 12.2/3.4/2.8 in 26.8 mpg on 44.4/20.8/78.4 shooting. What should be clear is even at his best, Williams is not much of a shooter. He’s at his best at the rim (62.0 FG%) or in the paint away from the rim (44.9%). He took 65% of his shots at the rim or in the paint last season. The 3-point percentage also isn’t quite as bad as it looks. He was atrocious from the corner, shooting 15.4% on corner threes, but is a respectable 33.3% on 3’s above the break.

Defensively, Williams is very good. In his first year at Rutgers he posted a 99.3 D-Rating, and a 3.5 DBPM. He has a 2.3 DBPM for his career, and his 1.6 DRAPM last season was good for 86th percentile, per CBB Analytics. Rutgers was 5.8 points per 100 possessions better with Williams on the floor last season. In 2 seasons at Rutgers he averaged 3.0 sp100, and he’ll look to continue those ball-hawking ways for the Hoyas. With Lewis, Mulready, Mack and Williams, the defensive backcourt will generate a ton of steals.

The Hoyas are also adding the Crab 5’s 6th man, DeShawn Harris-Smith. Harris-Smith was the 6th highest minute getter on Maryland last season, but only logged 15.4 mpg, as erstwhile Terps coach Kevin Willard leaned heavily on the “Crab 5,” his starters. In his limited time, Harris-Smith posted 2.5/2.4/1.0 on 39.5/20.0/50.0 shooting. That shooting…not an anomaly, in his freshman year at Maryland, when he started 30 games and played 29.5 mpg, Harris-Smith shot equally bad. The poor FT shooting would indicate it’s not an anomaly. Defensively, Maryland was 1 point worse with Harris-Smith on the floor, but I think that’s not too bad, given how good that starting 5—and team overall—was defensively (7th in the country, 91.9 AdjDE per KenPom).

Rounding out the new additions are a pair of Big East, intraconference frontcourt transfers: Isaiah Abraham from UConn and Vince Iwuchukwu from St. John’s. First, Abraham. I gotta say, the sample size is small, but players leaving UConn have not fared very well at their new schools. Richie Springs was a 3-star prospect, and couldn’t even get off the bench in 2-years at Quinnipiac, averaging just 8 mpg. At St. John’s, Nahiem Alleyne was pretty much the same guy he was at UConn, a decent rotation piece, Apostos Roumoglou was decent at Richmond last year, and is probably the best success story. Georgetown experienced this first hand with Akok Akok turning in mediocre performances under Ewing (and it wasn’t just Ewing, Akok was mediocre at WVU in his last CBB season). Jalen Gaffney was mediocre across 2 seasons FAU. Corey Floyd Jr. has gradually improved for PC after redshirting at UConn, so a bit different. Similar career path for Rahsool Diggins going to UMass from UConn.

The point is that Danny Hurley guy knows a little something about basketball, and he’s done a fantastic job of retaining the pieces he wants to retain. If a player is leaving UConn, it’s usually because he’s surplus to Hurley’s requirements, which should be an instant red flag. As for Abraham specifically, I know there’s UConn fans who think he will be very good with a larger role that he simply wasn’t going to get on this year’s UConn roster with Karaban, Stewart, Ross and Mullins all ahead of him on the forward depth chart. He’s still just a sophomore with obvious upside, and a top-100 4-star in the class of 2024. Georgetown recruited him out of high school.

So given all of that, it’s certainly possible that Abraham fairs better than previous UConn departees, and follows the Floyd/Diggins path. However, both Floyd and Diggins took a couple years to become impact players. Georgetown may be expecting more than a bit role from Abraham this season, and I will remain dubious he can deliver until I see otherwise.

Vince Iwuchukwu is someone I definitely know well, as the erstwhile Johnnie played 7.1 mpg across 34 games for St. John’s, posting 2.7/1.7/0.1 on 54.2% from the field. Vince has the physical tools to be a rim runner and rim protector. He sports a career 2.2 bp40 rate. Last year he was bottled up behind Zuby, which limited his minutes. This year he’ll once again be in a reserve role behind Halaifonua. He’s serviceable in such a role.

Noticeably absent from Georgetown’s roster: any true freshmen. Cooley pulled a Pitino better than Pitino himself, and eschewed the Class of 2025 in favor of bringing in experienced players like Lewis and Love to complement his existing core of returnees.


The Optimist’s Take: Mack takes a leap in his 2nd Big East season. Halaifonua is the real deal, and fills at least a big part of the Sorber-sized hole in the front court. Lewis and Love find their shots and provide offensive fire power alongside Mack. Abraham makes a big impact immediately off-the-bench. The defensive is stout, and forces a lot of TOs.

The Hater’s Take: Ed Cooley is washed. This is his retirement gig. He’s phoning it in. Ed’s style is outdated, and he’s brought in a bunch of guys that are not great shooters. Abraham does not make an impact, Mulready isn’t ready for a bigger role, and the meaningful depth boils down to Jeremiah Williams and DeShawn Harris-Smith, putting a strain on the starters, and causing problems when foul trouble rears its ugly head.

Can Ed & the Hoyas at least get a few more butts in seats this season?

Fan Pulse: Still cannot be bothered to show up, selling just 8,400 tickets per home game last season, even as they were more competitive. The optics of 8,400 (and let’s be real, noticeably fewer people actually showed up each game), in a cavernous NBA arena that holds 20,000+ is jarring, and a pretty bad look for the Hoyas. The conference will be better with an engaged Hoya fan base, so hopefully this improves.

Bottom Line: I think the Hoyas have enough talent at the top to contend for an NCAAT berth. The depth definitely concerns me, as I’m not high on Abraham or Iwuchukwu’s ability to contribute meaningfully this season beyond eating some minutes. Hopefully, for the good of the conference, the Hoyas can be the 5th or 6th bid from the league. Unfortunately, I think they fall short, and find themselves just on the wrong side of the bubble. Good enough for Cooley to keep his job on the back of steady improvement, not good enough to generate significant buzz or excitement in the nation’s capital.

Prediction: 18-13 (9-11), 6th Place

Better Know a Team: DePaul

Me, waving the pom poms for DePaul for the 2nd year in a row…

Year 2 of the Holtmann era brings some continuity, with a trio of returners in the starting lineup.
Can the ‘mons put it all together and sneak into the tournament?

Last Year’s Record: 14-20 (4-16), Crown Invitee!

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 69 (NICE!) (114)
KenPom: 78 (122)
EvanMiya: 97 (116)

Coach: Chris Holtmann, Year 2. Personally, I think Chris Holtmann is a great coach. The 3 Man Weave crew joke that he got 3-point-varianced out of a job at Ohio State, and that’s pretty…pretty…pretty accurate (conversely, Jake Diebler 3-point-varianced his way INTO a job at Ohio St., but this is a Big East blog, so let’s just leave it there). A lot of the perception around Holtmann may have changed as well had the 2020 tournament not been canceled, as he had arguably his best team that season at OSU, finishing 8th in KenPom. The next season is when things started turning sour for Holtmann at OSU, as they got bounced as a 2-seed by Oral Roberts.

To fans of other power conference observers, last season under Holtmann might not have looked like much…but we’re talking about a team that finished 304th in KenPom the year before, a ranking that is almost certainly an all-time low for a high major program, and outperformed their preseason KenPom ranking by 39 spots.

Utterly depressing stat: DePaul’s program rank on KenPom is 93. The last coach to beat that program rank? Jerry Wainwright’s second season in 2006-07, when DePaul went 20-14 (9-7 in the old Big East), finishing 50th in KenPom, losing to 1-seeded Air Force(!) in the NIT quarterfinals as a 3-seed. KenPom preseason ranks go back to 2011-12, and in those 13 seasons Holt has equaled or outperformed his preseason rank in 7. And a few of the misses warrant noting: projected 19th, finished 25th with Butler in 2016-17, 42nd and 44th with OSU in 2018-19, 10th and 11th with OSU in 2020-21. His biggest miss was 23 spots, from a projection of 8th to a finish of 31st with OSU in 2021-22.

If he’s going to bring DePaul back, he really needs to do it with defense. His first 3 years at Ohio St., including his best team in the COVID-canceled tournament year ranked 15, 25, and 19 in defense. He has not had a top-60 defense since. Last year’s defense at DePaul was 139, leaving much room for improvement. I think the pieces are a bit better defensively this year, so they should see improvement on that end.

All of which is to say…this is the year…DePaul will beat their KenPom program rank of 93 for the first time in 19 years. It’s probably a bridge too far to predict them to break their high-major-leading 21 year NCAAT drought—dating back to Dave Leitao’s first stint, when DePaul was a CUSA squad-–but it is not outside the realm of possibility.

Roster:

Starters
PG: Layden Blocker (Jr.), 6’2” 195 lbs.
SG: RJ Smith (R-Jr.), 6’3” 195 lbs.
SF: CJ Gunn (Sr.), 6’7” 200 lbs
PF: Kaleb Banks (Sr.), 6’8” 215 lbs.
C: NJ Benson (Sr.), 6’8” 235 lbs.

Rotation Bench
G Brandon Maclin (Sr.), 6’3” 215 lbs.
F Jeremy Lorenz (Jr.), 6’8” 230 lbs.
G Ilija Milijasevic (Jr.), 6’3” 190 lbs.
G/F Kruz McClure (Fr.), 6’6” 185 lbs.
F/C Theo Pierre-Justin (So.), 6’10” 215 lbs.
C Khaman Maker (So.), 7’1” 225 lbs.

Bench Warmers
C Isaiah Medina (Fr.), 7’0” 230 lbs.
C Fabian Flores (Fr.), 7’2” 250 lbs.
F Amsal Delalic (So.), 6’8” 215 lbs. (Medical Redshirt this season)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/14, 7:30pm v. Northwestern, truTV

Emerald Coast Classic
11/28, 6pm v. Ga. Tech (N), CBS Sports Network
11/29, TBD v. Drake/LSU (N), TBD

12/13, 11am at Wichita St., ESPNU

What’s Old: The ‘mons return 3 of their top-4 scorers from a season ago, headlined by senior CJ Gunn. Gunn led the ‘mons with 12.9 ppg, adding in 4 boards and an assist on 42.9/30.3/77.0 shooting, in 26.6 mpg. While Gunn was the leading scorer, he was not the most efficient player, and his 30.3% from deep is pretty ugly, when you consider he took almost 50% of his FGA from 3, 5.5 per game. Which explains why, despite posting 28.6 points per 100 possessions, Gunn had an O-Rating of just 102.9 per Sports Reference, and an ugly -0.7 ORAPM per CBB Analytics. Defensively, the story is not much better for Gunn, with a -0.5 DRAPM. The DRAPM and his 107.1 D-Rating underscore what a traffic cone Gunn was on defense, as he managed 1.3 steals in his 26.6 mpg, but still grades out as a poor defender metrically.

I believe.

Call me crazy but I think Layden Blocker is good at basketball, and it might be one of my most irrational opinions. In 25.5 mpg for DePaul last season he posted 9.5/2.9/3.1 on 40.3/33.7/78.3 shooting. That’s thoroughly mediocre from an efficiency standpoint. But his 3 to 2 A-to-TO ratio is decent, and he’ll have the ball in his hands running the offense more this season with the departure of Conor Enright, who had the ball in his hands a lot when he was healthy, and David Thomas, who played most of the point minutes when Enright got hurt. Blocker’s assists per 40 of 4.8 puts him in the 92nd percentile per CBB Analytics. I think this, plus a year of developing under Holtmann will do wonders for Blocker. Diving deeper, Blocker created 17 ppg last season for himself and his teammates, 80th percentile, significantly better than Thomas’ 7.6 (37th percentile). He was also 92nd percentile in assists per 40 at the rim & 3’s, meaning he’s getting his teammates metrically ideal opportunities.

Defensively, I think Blocker is underrated. He’s one of the longer guards in the game, which helped him average 1.1 steals per game. The rest of his defense leaves much to be desired. So my belief in Blocker’s defense may be entirely irrational as he grades out metrically every bit as bad a defender as Gunn. But sometimes, you just gotta believe.

The ‘mons return a third key cog in center N.J. Benson. Benson is just a fun player to watch. He’s undersized at the 5…but only from a height perspective. He’s stocky and strong, but more athletic than he looks, and plays with energy. Last season Benson was DePaul’s highest rated RAPM player, 5.5 (97th percentile). He posted 9.0/6.2/0.9, with 1.4 blocks per game in just 21.9 mpg. He’ll have a stranglehold on the starting 5 role this season, as DePaul is not particularly deep behind him. With additional minutes, he can turn into one of the best centers in the conference behind Zuby Ejiofor and Tarris Reed despite clocking in at just 6’8”. He also showed improvement late in the season, from the time of his first start in late-December through the Crown loss to Cincinnati, a span that also saw him miss a month before returning for the Big East Tournament, he averaged 10.9/7.8/1.1, with 1.6 blocks per game in 26.7 mpg.

The headline defensively is obviously that block rate. It would not be surprising to see him get to 2 blocks per game if he plays 30+ mpg this season. Even more impressive though is Benson’s personal foul efficiency of 1.32x last year, good for 98th percentile nationwide. That means Benson posted 1.32 steals and blocks for each personal foul. His defensive rebound percentage of 22.6% led the Big East last season, and his overall rebound percentage of 16.6 was 2nd overall. Better than Oswin Erhunmwunse, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Zach Freemantle, Zuby Ejiofor, and Tarris Reed. So you have an undersized 5 capable of protecting the rim, cleaning the glass, and doing it all without fouling a ton. His DRAPM was 1.8, 88th percentile last season per CBB analytics. What’s not to like?

Rounding out the returnees is PF Theo Pierre-Justin, the Frenchman played just 6.3 mpg and appeared in just 17 games for the ‘mons a season ago, and figures to have about the same minimal impact this season.

What’s New: A bunch of newcomers look to fill the holes left by the departures of Enright and Isaiah Rivera, the latter being the 2nd leading scorer from a year ago. That group is headlined by Kaleb Banks, a 6’8” forward from Tulane, and a former teammate of CJ Gunn’s at Indiana as freshman and sophomores. Like Gunn, Banks did not see the floor much in 2 seasons at IU under Mike Woodson. Last year he took a step down in competition to the American, and had a breakout season with Tulane. Banks posted 14.7/6.7/1.0, adding in 1.3 blocks in 31.4 mpg for the Green Wave, on 50.6/34.1/73.1 shooting. He’ll slot in between Gunn and Benson in the front court as the starting 4. While he’s a more than good enough shooter to create spacing, he truly shines at getting to the rim, where he takes 38.4% of his shots, and makes them at a 78% rate (good for 94th percentile, and probably closer to 99th percentile among non-centers). He fills out his shot diet primarily with 3-pointers, sporting a metrically sound 79.5% rim + 3 rate per CBB Analytics. And when he drives, he frequently gets to the lane, ranking 95th percentile in shooting-fouls per game at 2.0, and 99th percentile in And-1’s, as he uses his strength to finish through contact, with 35% of his drawn shooting fouls resulting in an And-1 (87th percentile). If there’s one area he struggles offensively, it’s creating his own shots, as 87.6% of his 3-pointers were assisted, and 55.6% of his 2-pointers (32nd and 24th percentiles). With Blocker’s distribution qualities, along with those of newcomers Brandon Maclin and RJ Smith, Banks should have no trouble getting set up for the looks he wants.

Defensively, Banks is a MENACE. He cleans the defensive glass to the tune of 4.4 DRPG (92nd percentile per CBB Analytics), protects the rim to the tune of 1.3 bpg (96th percentile), and even adds in nearly 1 steal per game (0.8, 64th percentile). Much like Benson, Banks does all of this without fouling, sporting a personal foul efficiency ratio of .90x, good for 87th percentile. In short, Banks and Benson will be a formidable frontcourt on the defensive end. They will protect the rim and clean the glass exceptionally well.

Benson and Banks will be joined in the front court by 6’8” sophomore Jeremy Lorenz from Wofford. Lorenz is another solid defensive piece, sporting a 2.5 DRAPM per CBB Analytics. Lorenz is mediocre offensively, posting 8.0/3.8/1.7 in 22.1 mpg shooting 50.0/31.0/71.6. He’ll try to do most of his damage inside, taking 41.9% of his shots at the rim, and 21.5% in the rest of the paint per CBB Analytics. He’s an OK shooter, posting 31% from deep, so he is someone defenses will have to respect, so he’ll be able to maintain the spacing when he spells Banks at the 4, or create a 5-out if he spells Benson, with either Banks or Lorenz guarding the 5 on the other end.

In the backcourt, starting alongside Blocker will be either Brandon Maclin or RJ Smith. Smith comes in from Colorado, so his Big12 experience probably gives him the slight edge. Smith was a sniper for the Buffs, shooting 38.6% on 3 3-point attempts per game per Sports Reference. His line was 6.2/2.5/1.7 on 44.8/38.6/77.3. Smith figures to be an integral part of an offense that will once again be 3-point centric for the ‘mons. If you’re an astute observer, you’ll notice that so far every projected starter other than Benson, the center, shoots at least 30%, and 3 outta 5 shoot better than 33%. 

Maclin is a solid shooter, knocking down 35.8% of his 3’s on 3.2 attempts per game. He posted a line of 10.0/4.3/2.2 on 42.6/34.3/71.8 shooting. The knock on Maclin offensively is that he can get mid-range happy, sporting a 3 + Rim rate of just 68.4%, which is 38th percentile in the country. Holtmann will want him taking more 3’s considering his at the rim FG% is only 57.1%, 34th percentile per CBB Analytics.

Defensively, Maclin generates a lot of steals, with a steal percentage of 2.8%, 86th percentile, and cleans the glass decently for a guard, with a D-rebound rate of 14.4%, 65th percentile nationally. For my money, that makes you a solid defensive piece, but the advanced metrics disagree, with DRAPM giving Maclin a -0.7.

As is the fashion these days, the ‘mons bring in an Eastern European of their own, Ilija Milijasevic. Milijasevic comes in as a junior. He’s a larger guard, measuring 6’3” and 195 lbs. In 2024 he averaged 12.4/3.7/2.9 in the U20 Eurobasket, and in the Adriatic League last season he averaged 45% from deep for something called “Mega Superbet.” Here’s to hoping he stays away from any similarly named entities in the US while in college. He’s reportedly one of the best shooters in Europe per Arman Jovic, a top Euro scout, and projects as a strong 3 & D type.

Rounding out transfers that might see time is St. John’s import Khaman Maker. “Big Juba” as Johnnies fans affectionately called him, Maker hails from South Sudan, and is a raw athlete with a huge, lanky frame, standing 7’1” and 220 lbs. Maker should be a redshirt freshman, but he managed to play 3 minutes for the Johnnies last season, ironically in an 89-61 victory over DePaul. While it remains to be seen if Maker can develop into a player at this level, given the lack of height in DePaul’s frontcourt, Maker should get plenty of opportunities this season against bigger frontcourts.

DePaul also brings in a trio of freshman. The most likely to contribute is all-name team candidate Kruz McClure. McClure is a 3-star, ranked 190th in the class of 2025 by the 247 Composite rankings. McClure likely won’t see many minutes early in the season, as he’s missed most of the preseason with injury. However, he’ll definitely be given the opportunity to learn and develop as the season goes on.

The other 2 freshman additions are in the front court, and both are 7-foot centers. Isaiah Medina is a 7’0” 4-star ranked 11th in the 247 Sports Composite, while Fabian Flores is a 7’2” Spanish product who also had interest from Florida. With a lack of height in the front court, it will be interesting to see what type of playing time Maker, Medina and Flores are able to earn.

There’s one final addition who unfortunately will not see the floor this season, and that’s sophomore Amsal Delalic. Delalic is a Bosnian G/F, standing 6’8”. He started 2 games and played in 21 for Pitt last season. Delalic suffer a torn ACL over the summer, and will miss the entire 2025-26 season.

Dudes rock.

The Optimist’s Take: The defense greatly improves for the ‘mons, anchored by a high-quality, if undersized defensive front court of Benson & Banks, with Lorenz providing depth. The Benson-Gunn-Blocker continuity helps this team improve. Blocker blossoms into the high-end lead guard I believe he can be. If Blocker develops, scoring should not be a problem with shooters galore, plus Gunn and Benson. The key here could be Banks. He could easily overtake Gunn as the leading scorer on this roster, and he has the ability to be an elite 2-way player.

The Hater’s Take: DePaul going to DePaul. Blocker is just mid and not a Big East PG. The perimeter defense is abysmal, and taller frontcourts feast on the undersized Benson, Banks and Lorenz. Gunn is inefficient and does not improve his shooting, while sucking up a higher usage rate, leading to an inefficient offense

Fan Pulse: ‘sco Mons! Optimistic about steady progress and what Holtmann is building.

Bottom Line: I believe in the ‘mons. I believe they’ll be top-100 in KenPom for the first time since 2019-20 under Dave Leito (94th). I think they get there on the strength of an improved, but still not great defense, a Layden Blocker jump, great shooting and NJ Benson being a menace. I project that they’ll beat their program rank of 93 for the first time since Jerry Wainwright in 2005-06. I think IF everything breaks right, they could climb as high as 6th and maybe, just maybe sneak into the NCAAT. I believe. For now though, I’ll slot them 7th.

Prediction: 19-12 (9-11), 7th Place

Better Know a Team: Xavier

Things suddenly got very Italian in Cincinnati. Maybe now they can make a proper spaghetti,
instead of whatever the fuck that Skyline shit is…

“Welcome to the Big East son, now stay outta my way would ya?”

Last Year’s Record: 22-12 (13-7), Round of 64. Good enough to get S**n M****r the Texas job!

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 74 (40)
KenPom: 62 (43)
EvanMiya: 86 (38)

Coach: Richard Pitino, Year 1. Welcome to the Big East son! Richard gets massively underrated as a coach, I think largely based on his tenure at Minnesota, which is a tough place to coach! But here is Richard’s history relative to program rank and pre-season KenPom rank:

Minnesota - Program Rank 69
Year - Pre-season - Final
2014 - 34 - 46
2015 - 34 - 52
2016 - 63 - 192
2017 - 71 - 37
2018 - 36 - 117
2019 - 59 - 46
2020 - 80 - 27
2021 - 30 - 62

New Mexico - Program Rank 87
2022 - 287 - 161
2023 - 138 - 66
2024 - 46 - 29
2025 - 62 - 41

So at Minnesota he beat the program rank 6 out of 8 seasons, and beat pre-season expectations 3 out of 8, which is rough. But that New Mexico tenure…out performed expectations every year, the first 2 years massively so. 3 out of 4 years finishing in the KenPom top-100, a feat that had not occurred since the 2010-11 through 2013-14 seasons, when Steve Alford posted 3 straight top- 50 squads, and handed Craig Neal a monster that finished 33rd in KenPom. Neal promptly tanked the program back to 137 in year 2, and did not get back into the top-100 until Richard’s 2nd season. Richard out-performed the program rank in his final 3 out of 4 seasons at New Mexico.

Now, there is probably some concern about that year 1 at New Mexico, and I think you could certainly see a rough first season here, relative to Xavier-level expectations. Many are predicting it. Did you know that in the KenPom era (1996-97 onward), Xavier has never finished lower than 81st?! That was way back in Year 1 of S**n M***r’s first stint, when Xavier still played in the A10. Even the much-maligned Travis Steele bottomed out at 66 in 2021. Hat tip to Three Man Weave and Will Warren for that tid bit. In other words, while I don’t expect Xavier to be good, there appears to be a legitimate floor with this program. Gun to my head, I say they post their worst season in the KenPom era this year, but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.

Roster:

Real rivalries are rare. Cherish it. And whoop their ass too.

Starters
PG: Roddie Anderson III (Sr.), 6’3” 195 lbs.
SG: Malik Messina-Moore (Sr.), 6’5” 200 lbs.
SF: Isaiah Walker (Sr.), 6’5” 205 lbs
PF: Tre Carroll (Sr.), 6’8” 235 lbs.
C: Anthony Robinson (So.), 6’10” 252 lbs.

Rotation Bench
PG All Wright (So.), 6’3”, 190 lbs.
F Gabriel Pozzato (So.), 6’7” 200 lbs.
F Filip Borovicanin (Sr.), 6’9” 227 lbs.
C Pape N’Diaye (So.), 7’0” 230 lbs.
PF Jovan Milicevic (So)., 6’10” 241 lbs.
SG Mier Ponoam (Jr.), 6’2” 200 lbs.

Bench Warmers
C Kason Westphal (Fr.), 7’0” 260 lbs.


Big Non-Conference Games:

11/10, 8:30pm, vs.Santa Clara, FS1
11/14, TBD, at Iowa, TBD

Charleston Classic
11/21, 9:00pm, vs. Georgia (N), ESPN2
11/23, 1:00pm or 3:30pm, Clemson/WVU (N), ESPN

Crosstown Shootout
12/5, 7:30pm, vs. Cincinnati, TNT + TruTV

What’s Old: Absolutely nothing! Ok, I guess we can call Roddie Anderson, III “old”, as he is returning to the Musketeers, but he did not play a single minute last season, opting to redshirt and develop behind a roster stacked with guards (Conwell, McKnight, Foster, Maddox, & Trey Green), on the premise he’d learn the offense and be a major contributor in 2025-26. Well, that offense has gone to Austin, but Anderson remains. The last we saw of Roddie Anderson III in 2023-24 he was playing 26.4 mpg for Boise State, averaging 6.5/3.0/2.4, with 1.9 TOPG and 1.2 SPG. The year prior, he posted 13.1/3.8/3.6 in 31.3 mpg for UCSD. With Boise State his O-Rating was an abysmal 87.0.

Defensively, Anderson projects much better, posting a 100.9 D-Rating at Boise, both figures per Sports-Reference. Richard’s best teams have always been his strongest defensive teams, as he made the tournament with 4 of his 5 best KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency teams, including his 2 best defenses the last 2 seasons at New Mexico, 19 last year and 23 the year before, guiding New Mexico to the NCAAT both times. Much will be asked of Anderson on that end. His size will certainly help, and it underscores one of the keys with this roster: size. Only end-of-rotation shooting guard Mier Ponoam is under 6’3”, and they have 3 front court pieces 6’10” or bigger.

What’s New: I usually run through projected starts first, but I am going to do things a little differently for Xavier. Underlying this entire roster is a tension between a senior-laden, experienced starting squad, and the sophomores who will be pushing them for minutes, and maybe even starting roles. So this will be more positionally-based.

Pushing Anderson from the bench will be all-name team member All Wright, coming to Xavier as a sophomore by way of Valparaiso. The juxtaposition between Wright and Anderson is clear, Wright is the offensive yang, to Anderson’s defensive ying. At Valpo, Wright posted 15.1/2.2/2.4 on 40.8/38.3/80.5 shooting. He took 39.7% of his shots from deep, and if I’m Pitino, that’s where I want him to stay, as his 3-point percentage was in the 77th percentile nationally per CBB Analytics. On the downside, Wright took 20% of his shots in the mid-range, where he’s only a 46th percentile shooter, and that was against MVC competition. It only gets worse the closer he gets to the rim, as in the paint he’s 31st percentile and at the rim he’s in the 29th percentile. Defensively, Valpo was a full point worse per 100 possessions with All Right on the floor, and they were not a particularly good defensive team to begin with. Wright individually posted a 111.8 D-Rating. If Anderson gets the majority of the minutes it’ll be because Wright is struggling to even be serviceable defensively.

Projected to start at the 2 is Malik Messina-Moore, a 6’5” guard. The senior started his career and played 2 years at Pepperdine, before transferring to Montana last season, where he posted a 12.6/3.2/2.4 state line on 45.6/40.9/82.2 shooting. Messina-Moore is an absolute sniper. He took 51.6% of his shots from deep last season for the Grizzlies, most (44%) from above the break. His 40.9 3-pt percentage was 90th percentile, per CBB Analytics. His elite 3-pt shooting led him to a healthy 56.4 eFG% and 59.7 TS%.

Messina-Moore also grades out as an average defender. He was the tied for best on his team in CBB analytics’ DRAPM metric, improving the team’s defensive efficiency by 0.4 points per 100 possessions above an average defender. Obviously nothing to write home about, but with his size and Richard’s system, he could improve defensively. If he does, he’s a great 3&D piece for X, capable of playing the 2 & the 3. It’s also important to note that Messina-Moore played roughly 1/3rd of his minutes at the 4, and Montana even played 5 guards ranging from 6’1” to Messina-Moore at 6’5” at times. Which is to say he was frequently playing out-of-position, and against larger players–even in the Big Sky–which certainly impacted his defensive output. Moving him to his more natural 2/3 role should improve his defense before accounting for coaching or system.

Pushing Messina-Moore, in addition to All Wright, is junior guard Mier Panoam. Panoam is a junior, who played only 9 games at Tulane as a freshman, before starting in 33 games for North Dakota last last season, logging 13.0/5.8/2.4 in 28.2 minutes, on 45.5/22.2/71.1 shooting. He was North Dakota’s 2nd leading scorer last season behind top-100 transfer Treysen Eaglestaff, who landed at WVU. Panoam entered the portal with far less hype. If you appreciate “all-in-one” metrics, CBB Analytics’ RAPM actually had Panoam as the best player on the team, despite scoring 5 ppg less than Eaglestaff. Where Panoam really outshone Eaglestaff was rebounds per game, where he nabbed 5.8 to Eaglestaff’s 2.8, which put Panoam in the 90th percentile nationwide. All of which is to say, perhaps Richard has found a diamond in the rough with Panoam. There isn’t much to love here defensively. So let’s just move on.

Projected at the 3 is Isaiah Walker Isaiah Walker transfers in from Belmont. After playing just 9 mpg as a freshman, Walker started 23 games and logged 27.7 mpg. Last season he started all 33 games, and logged 33 mpg, posting 10.8/5.8/2.2 on 46.4/32.7/80.2 shooting. According to CBB analytics, walker is a dead-average defender…0.0 in DRAPM. While Walker is a common name, this particular Walker may be familiar to older Xavier fans, as he’s the son of Tyrice walker, who played 20 mpg in 110 games for the Musketeers in the early 90’s.

Competing with Walker at the 3…eventually…is Gabriel Pozzato, the most hyped of the additions. Italian head coach, Italian star. Match made in heaven. If healthy, Pozzato would be the starter, and likely will be once healthy. As a freshman in the MVC last season Pozzato posted 14.9/4.4/1.3 on 44.7/31.7/70.5. Pozzato has the ability to create his own shot, and while not the quickest player on the floor, he makes up for it with athleticism and craftiness in the paint. He threw down some THUNDEROUS dunks in the Valley last season, earning All-Freshman honors in the process. Defensively his length and versatility make him a strong option, capable of guarding many types of players. The downside: Pozzato is injury-prone. He missed a month with Evansville last season with a back injury, and is already suffering from a knee injury that is likely to keep him out during OOC play. The good news, he’s an absolute workhorse, and last year’s back injury didn’t slow him down at all. After 1 ramp-up game, he played 37+ minutes in 11 of 12 remaining regular season games, logging a full 40 minutes in 8 of those games. 

At the 4, take your pick between seniors Tre Carroll and Filip Borovicanin. Borovicanin follows Richard from New Mexico, where he logged 22.7 mpg in 29 starts and 35 games. He posted 5.9/4.6/1.1 last season on 41.3/31.7/64.6 shooting. While that certainly doesn’t light the world on fire, Borovicanin provides outstanding defense, posting a 99 D-Rating, 3.0 DBPM, and a team-leading 3.4 DRAPM. His familiarity with Pitino’s defensive system, and the lack of other experienced, elite defenders, will make Borovicanin invaluable, and perhaps the favorite to start at the 4.

Carroll transfers in from FAU as a senior. If you do the math, he was a freshman on FAU’s final four team in 2022-23, but he logged just 5.7 mpg in 18 games that season. Still, the experience of being on a high-level team doesn’t hurt. Carroll was similarly lightly used as a sophomore, before being a contributor last season. As a junior he posted 12.2/5.2/1.6 with 1 bpg in 22.1 mpg. He shot 52.3/38.8/75.5. He provides the offense from the 4, and given his shooting ability, can probably play the 3 with Borovicanin providing the defense from the 4, provided you have additional shooters like All Wright and Messina-Moore in the backcourt. Carroll also isn’t terrible defensively, and if he can hold his own on that end, he’ll log plenty of minutes as a 3/undersized stretch-4.

This guy can ball, trust me

I expect Pozzato to pick up some minutes at the 4 when healthy, along with fellow Euro import Jovan Milicevic, who, like Borovicanin, follows Richard from New Mexico. Unlike Borovicanin, Milicevic is a sophomore, so he’ll have time to grow and develop. Last season he posted 3.8/2.0/0.4 on 48.4/45.8/57.9 shooting in 11.8 mpg. As should be clear, Milicevic is a sniper. The sample size isn’t huge (27/59), but I think it’s entirely reasonable to expect him to shoot above 35% from deep in the Big East on higher volume. This gives him the ability to stretch the floor from the 4 as well. Also similar to Borvicanin, Milicevic is a solid defender in his limited usage, posting a 100.4 D-Rating and 2.0 DBPM per Sports Reference. While note elite, he’s a solid rebounder with good court awareness under the basket. He knows how to use his body to obtain and maintain good rebounding position. 

Milicevic also seemed to improve as the year went on, earning more minutes down the stretch in the regular season, and posting his best performance in a tough road loss at SDSU, scoring 16, grabbing 4 boards, adding a steal on 6/9 shooting, 4/6 from deep, in 25 minutes. That game is indicative of the impact he can have when he’s on. However, he’ll need to find more consistency as a sophomore, having now had a year to adjust to the college game. Frankly, for my money, if he can find that consistency, he’s the most tantalizing underclassman on this roster outside Pozzato. He may have even logged more minutes fast last year, but for a crowded front-court that included the aforementioned Borovicanin, Mustapha Amzil, and Nelly Junior Joseph (although Joseph was exclusively at the 5, that prevented Richard from deploying Borovicanin or Milicevic at the 5 to open up minutes).

Rounding out the starting front court at the 5 will actually be 2 sophomores competing for minutes. First up, the likely starter Anthony Robinson who comes to Xavier by way of Virginia. Things obviously did not go well in Virginia last year, following the surprise fall retirement of Tony Bennett, and elevation of Ron Sanchez to head coach (a train wreck I saw first hand when SJU played UVa at Baha Mar). Robinson was not a highly touted prospect, just a 3 star out of high school, but did enough last season to earn a fourth star as a transfer, per 247, where he was rated 156th in the portal. Robinson is big, strong and athletic, as evidenced by this block of Cooper Flagg last season. If that doesn’t get you excited for him, I don’t know what will.

One of these guys is making $15.5M this year, and the other got a one-way ticket to Cincinnati…

Highlights aside, Robinson posted just 3.6/2.4/0.1 on 72.1/0.0/62.0 shooting in 9.2 mpg, with 0.6 blocks per game for good measure. Like many freshmen, he saw improvement as the season wore on, playing 14+ minutes in 10 of the final 13 games, posting 5.7/3.6/0.2 with 0.6 blocks per game in 13.7 mpg, and a gaudy 73.5% FG rate. The caveat here is that on the season he only took 43 shots, and 37 of them came at the rim per CBB Analytics. He was 50% in his 6 attempts from farther out in the paint, a small sample size.

Defensively, Robinson should be a very good rim protector. He posted 2.5 blocks per 40 last season,a block rate of 7.4% per CBB Analytics, good for the 96th percentile nationwide, and should see some improvement there as a sophomore given his size and strength. He posted a 104.1 D-Rating, and 1.8 DBPM on a team that was abysmal defensively (144th).

Backing up Robinson is another sophomore, Pape N’Diaye. N’Diaye provides a nice change of pace from the strong, stout Robinson. In contrast, N’Diaye is long, lean and athletic, having 2 inches on Robinson, but giving up over 20 lbs. in weight to Robinson. Pape N’Diaye has a chance to be the best rim protector in the conference. On UNLV last year he posted a 10.3% block rate, good for 99th percentile per CBB Analytics. In just 13.1 mpg, N’Diaye posted 2.7/3.7/0.1 and 1.1 blocks per game on 61.7/42.9/76.9 shooting. While the 3-point shooting is a a very small sample size (3/7), the FT percentage indicates that maybe he can be a stretch-5 type and shoot in that 35% range.

Defensively, in addition to the rim protection, you have to love N’Diaye’s rebounding. He posted a defensive rebounding rate of 21.8%, good for 95th percentile nationwide. He should be an excellent rim protector and rim runner, with the potential to be a stretch-5. It gives Richard options at the 5.

The last recruit is freshman Kason Westphal, a 7-foot center coming from Overtime Elite affiliate Fear of God Athletics in Florida. The unheralded recruit likely won’t see much time this season behind Robinson and N’Diaye, but could develop into a nice depth piece down the line.

The Optimist’s Take: Richard quickly realizes that not only is playing the sophomores (and junior Panoam) the best play long-term, it’s also the best play short term, as the sophomores became quickly ready to play at a Big East level. Richard’s coaching, and the defense plays at a very high level, anchored by Robinson/N’Diaye and Borovicanin in the front court. Pozzato gets health before the calendar turns to 2026, and is peaking come Big East play. The shooting translates up, N’Diaye turns into the stretch 5 he has the potential to be, and you have a very strong 5-out lineup of Wright, Messina-Moore, Pozzato, Milicevic and N’Diaye, that can still hold its own defensively, with the ability to rotate in guys like Borovicanin, Robinson and Walker for match-ups/defense. This scenario could see them into the tournament, I do think they have that ceiling. I think there’s a ton of upside in some of these younger players, if realized, has them as a very good team

The Hater’s Take: Richard insists on sticking with experience. The poor shooting from guys like  Panoam, Borovicanin, All Wright, and Walker proves problematic. Pozzato’s injury lingers, keeping him out longer than expected, and impacting his play upon his return. The perimeter defense is atrocious, and opposing guards feast against Wright, Panoam, Walker and Messina-Moore, despite solid interior defense. The bombing results in them posting their worst KenPom finish in the history of the metric. This team’s floor is probably dead last, with a ceiling of a fringe NCAAT team. The swing is truly that big for them.

Talk about an upgrade.

Gross.

Fan Pulse: Bone-gee-or-no. Loyal to the soil. Excited for the Pitino, Jr. era, cautiously optimistic, but understanding this could be a transition year with the hope of developing and retaining much of the sophomore transfer class.

Bottom Line: I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I came in to my deep dive pretty down on this team and roster, but on closer inspection, I do see a lot of upside in the younger guys, particularly in the front court (Milicevic, N’Diaye and Robinson). It’s very clear to see how Richard went about constructing this roster, and while there are some inefficient pieces, it’s clear there was an eye towards advanced efficiency metrics, and a coherent philosophy: shooting at all positions, positional size, and interior defense. For my money, I’m predicting them 8th, and to maintain their top-81 KenPom streak, but I wouldn’t be shocked as high as 4th, or as low as 11th.

Prediction: 17-14 (8-12), 8th Place

Better Know a Team: Villanova

There’s a new-old sheriff in town, how big of a difference does it make in year 1?

Good news ‘nova fans…the trophies managed to survive the Neptune error.

Last Year’s Record: 21-15 (11-9), Crown Semifinalists under interim head coach Mike Nardi, now an assistant at UConn

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 50 (53)
KenPom: 50 (56)
EvanMiya: 60 (47)

Coach: Kevin Willard, Year 1. Welcome back to the Big East Coach Willard. If you somehow found this obscure blog, despite only being a Big East fan for less than 3 years, you may not know that Kevin Willard spent 12 seasons at Seton Hall, a tenure remembered fondly by Hall fans. Ironically enough, I had half fans tell me that despite making the NCAAT in 5 of the last 7 seasons of Willard’s tenure (with one of the “misses” being the COVID-canceled tournament), that it was time to move on from Willard, as he had won just one NCAAT game in his 5 appearances. Nevermind that his best team was entering the tournament 20th in KenPom in 2020, and was a projected 3-seed in BracketMatrix, a favorite to make the Sweet 16 before the tournament was canceled.

The new sheriff. Bald is beautiful, or so I’ve been told.

Willard was consistent at Seton Hall. The youngins might not remember this, but pre-portal, it took time to build a program up. Willard made his first tournament at Hall as a 6-seed in 2016, and had Hall in the tournament every year except the aforementioned canceled 2020 tournament, and the weird, fan-less 2020-21 season. At Maryland, he had the Terps in the NCAAT 2 out of 3 seasons, and finally breakthrough to the second weekend with the 4th-seeded Terps last season.

All of this is to say that Willard’s teams tend to have a very-high floor. Since making that NCAAT in 2016, no Willard-coached team has finished lower than 62 in KenPom. For Willard, it all starts with defense. Last year’s Maryland squad, Willard’s best overall team per KenPom, ranked 7th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom, giving up just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd best ever for a Willard Team. His best overall team at Seton Hall–the 2020 squad that got shafted by COVID–was 25th in defense per KenPom, 92.7. His first Hall tournament team was 10th in defense, 92.9 points per 100 possessions. Even Willard’s non-NCAAT teams are frequently great defensive units. Willard’s 2nd year at Maryland the team was 14th in defensive efficiency per KenPom, his first year at Hall they were 10th. Even his last year at Iona, he posted a 94.0 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom, good for 39th.

That’s where the floor comes from with Willard: defense. Then, when his teams click offensively, it creates special seasons, as it did in 2024-25 with Maryland (23rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per KenPom), 2019-20 at Hall (29th in AdjO), and 2017-18 at Hall (17th in AdjO).

That floor is a welcome change from Willard’s predecessor on the Main Line, Kyle Neptune, a man who seemed to underachieve the talent level of his roster every season, and who will eventually be known remembered by ‘nova fans as “that guy after Wright, but before Willard.”

Roster:

This dude can shoot…

Starters
PG: Acaden Lewis (Fr.), 6’2” 180 lbs.
SG: Devin Askew (Gr.), 6’5” 195 lbs.
SF: Tyler Perkins (Jr.), 6’4” 212 lbs.
PF: Matthew Hodge (R-Fr.), 6’8” 220 lbs.
C: Duke Brennan (Sr.), 6’10” 250 lbs.

Rotation Bench
SG Bryce Lindsay (R-So.), 6’3” 194 lbs.
G/F Zion Stanford (Jr.), 6’6” 205 lbs.
PF Tafara Gapare (Sr.), 6’9” 215 lbs.
F Malachi Palmer (So.), 6’6” 212 lbs.
C Braden Pierce (R-So.), 7’0” 245 lbs.

Bench Warmers
PG Chris Jeffrey (Fr.) 6’3” 200 lbs.
F Malcolm Flaggs (R-So.) 6’6” 200 lbs.
C Nico Onyekwere (Fr.) 7’1” 240 lbs.

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/3, 9:30pm, v. BYU (N), TNT
12/9, 6:30pm, at Michigan, FS1
12/13, 4:30pm, v. Pitt, TNT + truTV
12/19, 8pm, v. Wisconsin (N), Fox (technically N, but played in Milwaukee)

What’s Old: Tyler Perkins headlines the holdovers from the Neptune era. Perkins transferred to ‘nova from cross-town Big 5 rival UPenn for last season, and appeared in every game, and started 3, for Kyle Neptune’s squad. He posted 6.3/4.3/1.0 with 1.1 spg in 25.8 mpg. He shot 40.0/35.2/72.0. After a year of adjusting to Big East play, Perkins could breakout in a big way as the likely star of this Wildcats roster. CBB Analytics’ RAPM backs this up, giving Perkins a 6.5 RAPM, good for 98th percentile, and the highest on last year’s ‘nova squad (yes, higher than Eric Dixon’s 5.5). The fact that he did not start and log more minutes for a team that relied heavily on the inefficient Wooga Popular, the stunningly mediocre Jordan Longino, and under-sized defensive abomination Jhamir Brickus is an indictment of Neptune, and indicative of why he’s not here anymore.

Perkins has a solid shot diet, posting a 79% 3 + rim rate, good for 71st percentile. While you generally want to see guys a touch higher, Perkins thrives in the mid range where he posts a 51.8% FG percentage, so you can live with the mid-range game from him, especially when considering that driving is not his forte, posting a 55.9 FG% at the rim, 29th percentile. In other words, you want him working on the perimeter and mid-range, when available.

Defensively he’s long and athletic, and does an excellent job staying in front of guys. He uses his length to clog lanes, landing him 1.1 steals per game. He’s also an effective rebounder, albeit far from elite, snagging 3.1 defensive rebounds per game, good for 73rd percentile per CBB Analytics. CBB Analytics’ DRAPM supports his defensive game as well, as he’s 3.0 points per 100 possessions better than an average defender, good for 97th percentile.

The only other returner is Belgium import Matthew Hodge. There was a fair bit of hype around Hodge last preseason, and the NCAA’s denial of his eligibility last season was viewed as a blow to the Wildcats. He was able to practice with the team last season, so he should have somewhat adjusted to the college game. Hodge should be a strong defender, with the length to be a problem on that end. Offensively, he’s capable of draining spot-up 3’s. Just how much Hodge can contribute on both ends will go a long way to determining how far up the standings this ‘nova squad can climb.

What’s New: 

Let’s start at the 1, with top-50 4-star freshman Acaden Lewis. With Askew already battling injury, Lewis is a shoe-in to begin the season as the starting 1, and if he plays well, it’s not likely that he gives up that role (which could see log significant minutes at the 2 when he returns). Offensively, Lewis certainly has the talents to make a big impact. He’s a great shooter, and has a true inside-out game. If there’s one area for concern, it’s whether the freshman can be a true lead guard, and make those around him better. Lewis has proven to be a score-first PG in his EYBL and HS play, and the ability to be a playmaker for the others frequently only comes with experience. Defensively, he grades out as a solid rebounder, despite likely being closer to 6’0” than his listed 6’2”, and has the length and coordination to be a ball-hawk and lane-clogger.

If your PG looks like this, congrats on your Crown invite.

Lewis will be splitting duties with Devin Askew, a senior transferring in from Long Beach State, from the Big West to the Big East. I have no clue if it’s true or not, but I’m going to claim he’s the first player in the history of the sport to transfer from the Big West to the Big East. It’s a shame–and honestly a bit surprising given his career trajectory–that he never played in the Big South. As to that career, his arrival at Villanova marks what will presumably be the end of a long, and not at all storied career. That career started as an elite prospect, ranked 32 in the 247 Sports Composite in the class of…wait for it…2020!!!!! He committed to Coach Cal out of high school. After a mediocre freshman year he transferred to Texas to play for then head-coach Chris Beard, where he struggled to contribute. Afterwards it was off to Cal for 2 injury-plagued years, albeit with some flashes shown in the 13 games he played his first year at Cal. After appearing in just 19 games across 2 seasons at Cal, Askew transferred to LBSU for year 5.

First, the positive…he has experience? Ok, ok, that’s not the only positive…he also, finally, played a full season for the first time since his sophomore campaign at Texas. Ok, ok, there’s still more to like, I guess…Askew was an absolute bucket at LBSU, posting 18.9/4.6/4.5 on 40.1/37.6/88.6 shooting, in 36 mpg. The guy can shoot. However, he’s a wildly inefficient scorer, posting an eFG of just 46.4% at LBSU last season, which puts him in the 29th percentile per CBB Analytics. One reason? He’s absolutely atrocious at the rim, shooting just 50% (17th percentile)…against Big West defenders. It’s not going to get easier for him there against Big East defenders. He also loves the mid-range, taking 24.6% of his shots there. Unlike teammate Perkins, Askew is not great in the mid-range, shooting just 44.7%, nor does he boast the 3 + rim attempt rate of Perkins, ranking in the 8th percentile in that category, taking just 53.1% of his shots from deep or at the rim.

If he could improve his shot diet, and take more 3’s and less mid-range shots, there could be room for improvement, but he’s also entering his 6th year of college, so maybe he just is what is. And what is he? He’s an analytical nightmare, and not really suited for the modern game offensively, and likely not suited for Big East play.

On the other end, it doesn’t get better…LBSU were 8 points per 100 possessions WORSE defensively with Askew on the floor. That is really bad considering it doesn’t account for opponent quality, and the Big West isn’t exactly a murderer’s row. For a coach that’s always been defense-first, it’s shocking to see him bring in a poor defender like Askew.

All of this is captured analytically in CBB’s RAPM, which attempts to measure a player’s impact on his team’s performance. Offensively Askew is -1.4 points per 100 possessions worse than an average D1 player (19th percentile), defensively he’s -2.5 pp100p worse than an average D1 defender (5th percentile), for a net total of -3.8 RAPM, putting him in the 5th percentile.

From the worst addition–in my humble opinion–to arguably the best addition, sophomore guard Bryce Lindsay out of James Madison. Lindsay is an elite scoring option, and along with Perkins, should be the keys to the offense. Lindsay was inexplicably ranked 283rd in 247 Sports’ transfer rankings, underscoring the trouble with relying too heavily on such rankings. He’s the projected to have the 18th best OBPR per Evan Miya, one spot below Langston Love, and one spot above Owen Freeman, both of whom get far more love from the subjective rankings.

Lindsay is an offensive dynamo, and that OBPR ranking may even undersell him a bit. His ORAPM was in the 86th percentile last season, per CBB Analytics. At JMU he posted 13.4/2.8/2.2 in 29.5 mpg on 45.5/40.8/85.4 shooting. He is an ELITE 3-point shooter, and that talent should absolutely translate up to the Big East. He shot 46.2% in 2 games vs. tier A competition last season per KenPom, including a 5-8 performance against UC San Diego, who was a top-30 defense in the country last season. He was slightly weaker in a 4-game sample size vs. Tiers A&B per KenPom, going 11-31 (35.5%) in those games. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of those small samples, and I expect him to shoot in the 38-40% range for the Wildcats. He has a metrically sound shot diet, ranking in the 89th percentile in Rim + 3 rate, and taking just 8% of his shots (49th percentile) from the mid-range. The lone downside offensively, Lindsay will struggle to score at the rim, as he shot just 59.3% at the rim against mostly Sun Belt frontcourts, and only took 18% of his shots (21st percentile) at the rim. However, Lindsay and Perkins should form an elite perimeter duo.

Defensively, Lindsay is bang-average, posting a 0.3 points per 100 possessions better than an average defender according to CBB Analytics’ DRAPM. In Willard’s system, he should provide adequate perimeter defense. He certainly has the quickness and athleticism to keep guards in front of him.

The starting center role will be filled by senior Duke Brennan, a 6’10” senior from Grand Canyon. Brennan started his career at Arizona State, where he was a bench Big Man for Bobby fucking Hurley, playing 9 mpg across 36 games. The last 2 seasons he played at GCU, starting all 65 games in which he appeared. Brennan blossomed at GCU, posting 10.4/9.2/0.5 last season on 64.6% from the field and 65.4% from the stripe. He’s not an outside threat at all, having attempted just 3 3-pointers in his career. Despite not providing much in the way of shot blocking, posting just a 1.7% block rate and less than a block per 100 possessions, Brennan is a great defender. He uses his size well to prevent players from getting clean looks, even if he isn’t swatting many shots. He posted a D-rating of 95.9 last season with GCU, and DRAPM rates him at 2.1, good for 90th percentile.

Double-redshirt sophomore Malcolm Flaggs also joins from GCU, also making ‘nova his third school in four years. He’s followed the same career trajectory as Brennan, his HS teammate. The difference being Flaggs redshirted at ASU in 2022-23, played just 11 games in 2023-24 for the ‘lopes before an injury claimed the rest of his season and the entirety of his 2024-25 campaign, for which he took a medical redshirt. Now entering his 4th year of college, he still has 2 years of eligibility remaining after this one. He’s already suffered another injury, an achilles strain, and is expected to be out into December. Given his health issues and inexperience, I’d be surprised if Flaggs contributes much this season.

Next up we have a trio of players following Coach Willard from Maryland: Malachi Palmer, Tafara Gapare and Braden Pierce. Pierce is a 7’0” sophomore center. He redshirted year 1 at Maryland, and appeared in just 5 games last year. He’ll likely step into a slightly bigger role here as the back-up center to Duke Brennan, but that’s a role that will be 10 mpg at most, as you could see some small ball lineups with Gapare at the 5, a look Willard deployed 20% of the time at Maryland between Gapare and Julian Reese. So I don’t expect much from Pierce this season.

It should be noted here that Willard played a very short rotation last season, with just 6 guys averaging more than 11 mpg, with 3 of the “Crab Five” racking up 30+ mpg, and Reese and Miguel playing approximately 28 mpg apiece. Gapare and Palmer were not in the heavy rotation. Of the 2, Gapare logged more minutes, appearing in 32 games, logging 10.3 mpg. He posted a 3.4/1.9/0.2 line on 47.0/37.1/62.1 shooting. Where Gapare really shone was defensively, posting a 2.1 DRAPM (91st percentile) and a 93.1 D-Rating. His per-40 numbers bear out his defensive potential, as he posted 7.4 boards, 1.5 steals and 3.0 blocks per 40. Athletic and switchable, Gapare provides a versatile piece on the defensive end, and his knowledge of Willard’s system will prove invaluable in getting the defense to gel quickly.

Palmer was a true freshman for the Terps last season, and has a bit more upside. CBB’s RAPM loves Palmer, giving him a 1.2 ORAPM, 3.2 DRAPM for a 4.4 overall RAPM (94th percentile). Palmer is a big, strong wing. Not the most quick, but capable of overpowering defenders on his way to the rim. Defensively, he can guard bigger guards and hold his own against forwards, giving Willard another versatile piece with experience in the system. 

Rounding out the transfers is junior forward Zion Stanford transferring from cross-town rival Temple. Stanford had a breakout sophomore campaign, beginning the year as a starter, before losing his starting role, only to gain it back over the last 7 games of the season. Overall he posted 13.1/4.5/2.1 on 45.5/34.9/71.0 in 27.6 mpg. However, his last 6 games of the year he was dominant, posting 19.8 ppg on 38.5% shooting from deep, with 6.8 boards and 2.7 assists.  Defensively, he’s another large, athletic guard for Willard’s perimeter defense.

It will be very interesting to see how Willard lines up the backcourt and wings when fully healthy. Lewis or Askew will likely be the point, but you could see lineups with both of those guys simultaneously, and there are a ton of varied options at the 2 & 3 with Lindsay, Perkins & Stanford all more than capable of pushing for a starting role. For my money, I’d start Lindsay on the bench, as he can be a huge spark with his scoring ability.

Finally, 2 other freshmen round out the new additions. Chris Jeffrey is the more heralded of the 2, a top-100 4-star from Maryland. He’s a 6’3”, strong, well-rounded guard, but not a great shooter. He can provide some defensive versatility with his strength. However, given the plethora of backcourt options discussed above, he’s likely to see a limited role this year.

The last addition is freshman Nico Onyekwere, an unheralded 3-star from LuHi on Long Island, who was previously committed to Florida State before their coaching change. He’s raw, and is not likely to see the floor this season. The key for Willard will be retaining and developing both Jeffrey and Onyekwere.

The Optimist’s Take: There are a lot of really good defenders on this roster and they come together to be a high quality defense, like those of Willard’s best teams. The offense gets enough on the perimeter offensively from Perkins, Lindsay and Lewis to compete and mask the interior offensive woes with Brennan and Gapare. Matthew Hodge lives up to expectations, and provides at least 1 solid offensive weapon in the frontcourt. Devin Askew gets buried on the bench.

The Hater’s Take: Devin Askew plays a big role, and his inefficient, ball-hogging tendencies tank the offense, and kill team morale. Willard stubbornly sticks with Askew, and the quality offensive pieces like Lindsay, Perkins and Lewis are never able to get in the rhythm they need to be effective.

Fan Pulse: Thank god the Neptune era is over and we finally have an honest-to-God basketball coach at the helm.

Bottom Line: I think, for the most part, the defense will be pretty good for the Wildcats. There’s a trio of solid defenders who know Willards system coming over from Maryland with the coach in Palmer, Gapare and Pierce. Perkins is a strong defender and Stanford is decent as well. The trouble will be on the offensive end. There’s only 2 players that I think are a guaranteed plus on the offensive end: Perkins and Lindsay. Lewis should contribute, but may still suffer some freshman growing pains. Hodge is a question mark at this point, but might be a big contributor. The rest of this roster leaves much to be desired offensively. Devin askew is just a disaster all over the court, and I’m not sure what Willard sees in him. While the Willard defense floor will help this team prevent a debacle, it’s hard to see much upside here on the offensive end. For my money, with the teams ranked 7 through 10, you can realistically rank them however you see fit, and I wouldn’t argue. After much back and forth, this is the order I’ve landed on.

Prediction: 16-15 (8-12), 9th Place

Better Know a Team: Butler

Iconic

Last Year’s Record: 15-20 (6-14), Crown Quarterfinalists

Preseason Metrics (last season final):

Torvik: 78 (77)
KenPom: 72 (75)
EvanMiya: 85 (81)

Coach: Thad Matta, year 4. What can we say about Thad. I have tremendous respect for the man, I think he’s in the discussion as one-of-the-best never to win it all. But man he has not been good at Butler. I hate to slap the “washed” tag on him, but it’s hard not to given what we’ve seen to this point. Telfort and Brooks alone should have been enough to have significantly better results than we saw from the Bulldogs last season. That’s before we even get started on the defense…Thad’s best teams have always been anchored by great defenses. Let’s look at his tournament teams:

He’s not getting younger…

2001 Butler - 41st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom
2002 Xavier - 17
2003 Xavier - 29
2004 Xavier - 20 (E8)
2006 Ohio St. - 19
2007 Ohio St. - 11 (Runner-Up)
2008 Ohio St. - 18 (Just an NIT team, but NIT Champs)
2009 Ohio St. - 63
2010 Ohio St. - 26 (S16)
2011 Ohio St. - 12 (S16)
2012 Ohio St. - 4 (F4)
2013 Ohio St. - 9 (E8)
2014 Ohio St. - 2
2015 Ohio St. - 25

Now, let’s compare that to his Butler teams: 55, 76, 169. That’s 3 of his 5 worst defensive teams all-time. It started out mediocre, and has gotten worse since. And if we go back to his last team at Ohio State in 2016-17, that team was 99th defensively. The 5th worst is the 2009 OSU team , listed above, the only one of his 5-worst defenses to make the NCAA tournament, and they had an elite defense behind Evan Turner and current Butler assistant coach (and brother of current OSU head coach Jake) Jon Diebler.

For my money, defense has always been about scheme and effort, and both of those tie back to coaching much more than offensive talents like shooting, court vision, etc., which are hard to coach. Get some athletes, have a strong system, and motivate your players, and you should have a very good defense, at least. The pitiful nature of Thad’s Butler defenses has probably been the biggest red flag for me that Thad is in fact washed, and it’s time to end this reunion.

Roster:

Starters
PG: Jalen Jackson (Gr.), 6’2” 200 lbs.
SG: Bibley Finjohn, (Jr.), 6’4”, 190 lbs.
SF: Jamie Kaiser, Jr. (R-So.), 6’6” 205 lbs.
PF: Michael Ajayi (Gr.), 6’7” 235 lbs.
C: Drayton Jones (Jr.), 6’11” 250 lbs.

Rotation Bench
G/F Yame Butler (Gr.), 6’5” 210 lbs.
G Evan Haywood (So.), 6’4” 200 lbs
PG Azavier “Stink” Robinson (Fr.), 6’2” 195 lbs.
PF Jack McCaffrey (Fr.), 6’9” 215 lbs.
C Yohan Traore (Sr.), 7’0” 240 lbs.
G/F Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor (Fr.), 6’6” 220 lbs

Bench Warmers
C Kevin Ndzie (Jr.), 7’1” 240 lbs.
G Jackson Keith (Fr.), 6’5” 225 lbs.
PF Bryson Cardinal (Fr.) 6’7” 205 lbs.

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/15, 2pm ET, at SMU, The CW (lol ACC)

Greenbrier Tip-Off
11/21, 2pm, v. S. Carolina (N), CBS Sports Network
11/23, 2pm, v. Virginia (N), CBS Sports Network

12/6, 2pm, v. Boise St., truTV
12/20, 4pm, v. Northwestern, Peacock

What’s Old: Other than the coach?! Wocka wocka wocka! Thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all season.

Sorry, I’m not buying this dork as a star player.

Headlining the returners is Jizney Fizzlbuck (fine…Finley Bizjack), Butler’s 3rd leading scorer last season, posting 10.3/2.8/2.4 in 27.6 mpg on 44.3/42.8/56.3 shooting. Clearly the number that pops is that huge 3-point percentage. Bizjack was 94th percentile in 3-point shooting per CBB Analytics. He took 56.1% of his shots from deep, only 76th percentile. If Butler is to have success, they will want Bizjack to up his shot percentage from deep. That should not be hard, as Bizjack has range. He has not met a shot he would not take, and hitting almost as many 3’s from 25+ feet (29) as he did from under 25 feet (30), and he was also a full 1.6 percentage points better from 25+ feet than on shorter 3’s. This contrasts with at the rim, where Bizjack shot just 50% at the rim last season, 17th percentile in the country. His game is outside. That’s not a knock, as he’s such a great perimeter player that he can absolutely make a huge impact on games without getting to the rim. His Crown 2nd round performance against Boise State is a prime example, 30 points on 8/12 shooting, 6/9 from behind the arc, and 7 assists to boot. His 19/3/3 game vs. Xavier and his 17/5/5 game at Georgetown also stand out. That said, they lost all 3 of those games. Could be an unfortunate anomaly, or could be significant, time will tell.

Defensively, Bizjack is not great. He was the 2nd worst player on the team in CBB Analytics’ DRAPM, with Butler -0.8 points per 100 possessions worse with Bizjack on the floor as opposed to the average D1 defender. Only Patrick McCaffery was worse last year at -1.1. The -0.8 DRAPM put Bizjack in the 29th percentile nationwide. His D-Rating was not much better, coming in 2nd worst on the team among players who logged at least 150 minutes with a 115.1, just above Landon Moore’s 115.5. DBPM is a little kinder to Bizjack, giving him a 0.5. Having seen 2 seasons of Bizjack attempting to defend, I simply don’t see it getting any better. He lacks the foot speed and athleticism to stay in front of quicker guards.

Evan Haywood returns and looks to step into a much larger role as a bench guard. Last season saw him score just 2.1 ppg in 5.5 mpg as a freshman. The good news is that he flashed some shooting ability, going 9/26 from deep on the season, a per-40 rate of 8.3 attempts per game. So a small sample size, but indicative of his preference. Haywood actually made more long-distance 3’s (25+ feet) than he made normal 3’s, 6 to 3. He only hit 6 2-point shots, 4 at the rim, and 2 just beyond the rim area. Like Bizjack, Haywood didn’t show much at-the-rim, but he was a true freshman, and had a very, very limited sample size. Defensively, I’m not sure what to expect from Haywood. Truly an unknown for me. Metrics seem to indicate an average defender, but he was just a true freshman and didn’t play a ton, so do with that what you will.

Rounding out the “returners” is Jamie Kaiser, Jr., a junior. I use scare quotes because Kaiser was on the roster last season, but took a red shirt after suffering a preseason ankle injury. Kaiser transferred in last season from Maryland, where he played 1 season for new Villanova (and former Seton Hall) head coach Kevin Willard. In that 2023-24 season with Maryland Kaiser posted 4.4/2.0/0.2, and added in 1 steal per game, in 19.5 minutes, shooting 26.9/26.5/77.8. The free throw percentage seems to indicate he can shoot, but MAN those shooting percentages are ugly. Like Haywood and Bizjack, Kaiser is a perimeter-first guy, putting up 160 FGA his freshman year at Maryland, with 113 being 3-point attempts. The good news is that unlike the other returners, Kaiser is a quality defender. He’s long and strong, with the versatility to switch onto forwards. He’ll struggle a bit more switching onto guards, but he’s still capable in that regard as well. 

What’s New: The headliner here is grad transfer Michael Ajayi. The 6’7” forward transfers to Butler from Gonzaga, where he was the 6th man, logging 34 appearances, 13 starts and 18.8 mpg. He posted a line of 6.5/5.4/0.8 on 44.6/18.2/69.5 shooting. By all subjective accounts, it was a disappointing year for Ajayi after transferring to Gonzaga from WCC-mate Pepperdine. At Pepperdine in 2023-24 Ajayi posted 17.2/9.9/1.9 on 46.7/47.0/70.9. Will the real Michael Ajayi please stand up? Because frankly, which offensive version of Ajayi Butler gets is one of the single largest factors as to how good this team can be. What cannot be questioned is Ajayi’s defense. He was elite last season, posting a 96.5 D-rating and 2.9 DBPM per Sports Reference, and a 2.7 DRAPM, good for the 95th percentile nationwide. Indeed, RAPM LOVES Ajayi despite his poor shooting last year, rating him a 3.1 in ORAPM, for a 5.7 RAPM overall, which puts him in the 98th percentile. So maybe Ajayi’s Gonzaga tenure was the victim of some 3-point variance and subjective commentators focusing too much on that aspect of his game? Either way, this team will go as Ajayi goes, so they need the best version of him.

Starting at point guard will be newcomer Jalen Jackson, a senior transferring in from Purdue Fort Wayne. Jackson was an bucket in the Horizon League, posting 19.2/4.4/3.1 on 48.4/26.4/75.1. He posted an absurd 38 points on 68.8% from the field versus IU-Indy last season, adding in 7 boards and 6 assists.The 3-point shooting is cause for concern, but he shot 41% from deep during his first year at PFW (his sophomore year) and he’s 33% in his career. The 75.1% from the stripe also indicates he has decent shooting mechanics, so like Ajayi, perhaps this is merely a case of 3-point variance. If Butler gets the best version of Bizjack, that could create a back court with 2 high quality distributors and shooters. Even if he does not get back to that 41% level, it’s safe to say he’ll be better than 26.4%. He’s also an elite driving guard, with a quick first step, solid burst, and the athleticism and touch to finish over and around bigger players (dropped 31 on Penn State, e.g., who featured 6’10” rim protector Yanic Niederhauser, with only 1 bucket coming from deep, going 9/17 from 2, and going 10/12 at the stripe). Defensively, Jackson could be bad for Butler. He certainly has the quickness to defend at this level, but he grades out metrically as a poor defender, ranking in the 7th percentile in DRAPM per CBB Analytics (-2.1 points worse than an average defender). D-Rating of 105.2 and DBPM of -0.5 also point to poor defending.

Drayton Jones, a junior transferring from South Carolina State will likely be the starting 5. For me, this is a gaping weak spot in the roster. Jones was 476th in 247’s transfer rankings, and for good reason. Other than having a large frame, I’m not sure what he brings to the table. The stats look respectable on paper: 13.0/5.5/1.4, and 1.7 bpg in just 23.6, but 56.4% shooting from a center is not great. Then you look at the competition in the MEAC. Here are the heights of the starting 5’s from his MEAC opponents last season:

6’9”
6’10”
6’9”
6’6” or 6’7” (Howard started 2 different 5’s vs. SC St.)
6’9”
6’8”
6’8”

So needless to say, he was taller than all but one “center” that he faced, and sometimes significantly taller than opposing 5’s. And many of those teams with 6’9” guys frequently deployed small ball lineups. He also goosed the numbers against that tiny Howard roster, posting 10 rebounds per game across 2 games vs. Howard. All of which is to say, you’d want to see more than 5.5 rpg from a 6’10” player under those circumstances, if you are to believe that player is a Big East caliber center.

Defensively, he should still be a solid rim protector. D-rating has him at 96.1, which is pretty damn good. But D-rating does not account for competition level. DRAPM does account for opponent level, and has him at a 1.0, good for 75th percentile. So he should provide some solid defense on a roster that otherwise might struggle with it. But his rebounding and offense will leave much to be desired.

Yame Butler transfers in as a grad student from Drexel. He posted 13.6/4.6/1.8 and 0.9 spg in 31.3 mpg on 48.6/36.5/69.3 shooting. Certainly strong rebounding figures from a guard. The shooting looks solid too. His defense is about average. All-in-all, he looks to be a nice bench scoring piece for the Bulldogs, but not someone who is moving the needle in a big way.

Butler also brings in an unusually large freshman class for this day and age, headlined by top-100 4-star Azavier “Stink” Robinson. Robinson will be the most likely to contribute, and will see minutes at the 1. He’s big, physical, long and athletic, which should help him contribute on the defensive end for a team that will need it. Offensively he’s at his best going down hill and getting to the rim with his size and athleticism.

Death, taxes, a McCaffery in Indy

Continuing the trend of McCaffery’s in Indy, Butler also brings in top-150 4-star Jack McCaffery. Fran’s son is a 6’8” forward. He’s got a high basketball IQ, being a coach’s son. That IQ helps him make up for his athletic deficiencies. He’s also an decent shooter, and uses his IQ to hunt good, open looks. Defensively, his lack of athleticism is likely to limit his contributions.

Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor is a long, athletic wing. Like Stink, he’s at his best getting downhill. His length, quickness and athleticism should help him contribute defensively.

Another freshman is guard Jackson Keith, a top-200 3-star. Given the options ahead of him at G and undersized-wing (Jackson, Bizjack, Kaiser, Butler, Haywood and Stink), I don’t think we’ll see much of Keith this season.

Rounding out the freshman is unranked forward Bryson Cardinal. There’s almost no information on him out there, but I did see his father was known as “the custodian” at Purdue for his workmanlike attitude, so I presume he brings that to the table.

The last newcomer is 7’0” center Kevin Ndzie. The Cameroonian comes to Butler as a junior, after playing for Urania Milano in Italy’s Serie A2, where he averaged just 3.5 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. The height and his 7’4” wingspan definitely make him an intriguing prospect, but I’d be surprised if we see much of him this season.

The Optimist’s Take: Jackson and Ajayi find their shots. Bizjack is the all-around perimeter guard he’s shown flashes of, capable of shooting and distributing. If so, the Jackson-Bizjack backcourt becomes quite formidable, and they’ll have Ajayi and Jones to feed inside, and Ajayi and Kaiser on the wing. The defense is good enough, and maybe, just maybe Butler can sneak its way onto the right side of the bubble. 

The Hater’s Take: The 3-point shooting is bad outside of Bizjack. Jackson does not translate up, as it’s a big leap from the Horizon. Bizjack tries to do too much on a team struggling offensively. The defense is as bad as it has been throughout Matta’s Butler tenure. This is another team that could certainly finish last.

Fan Pulse: Thad might be washed as a head coach, but he’s our washed head coach. Probably a little bit of a chip on their shoulder, feeling disrespected by the prognosticators and coaches, most of whom have them in the bottom 2 or 3 teams in the league.

Bottom Line: Butler lost 3 of its top-4 scorers, including All-Big East Third Team selection Jahmyl Telfort. To replace that I’m supposed to buy a PG from the Horizon League, a Finley Bizjack improvement, and Michael Ajayi in the front court to make up for 42 points per game of scoring. I for one am not buying that. This is a classic case of bringing in worse talent than you lost, and what you lost wasn’t good (from a team perspective anyway) to begin with. It’s not like Butler suddenly bulked up on the defensive end either (lord knows Brooks and Telfort weren’t big on defense). Couple that with the fact that Thad Matta’s best days being behind him, particularly on the defensive end, and I think we’re heading for another long season in Indy. Last place is definitely within reach, and unlike a team like Xavier, where there may be some upside, I just don’t see the upside with this roster that might lend itself to climbing the standings if things break right.

Prediction: 15-16 (6-14), 10th Place

Better Know a Team: Seton Hall

Iconic NIL collaboration.

Have the Pirates sold enough pesto to field
a competitive roster for Shaheen Holloway?

Last Year’s Record: 7-25 (2-18)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):

Torvik: 122 (221)
KenPom: 93 (204)
EvanMiya: 100 (186)

“Come on dawg, why you asking me about the pesto man?!”

Coach: Sha Holloway, 4th season. Most recently seen ferrying students around campus in a golf cart trying to drum up interest. I’m not saying that derisively. I love that kinda thing. As we start to bring in fucking G-League kids to college programs, every last vestige of “college” that remains is to be cherised.

On the court, Sha is trying. I personally think he’s a good coach. He’s proven to be a high quality defensive coach. However, the NIL era has not been kind to Seton Hall, and he’s struggled to fill out the roster with Big East caliber talent. Will his seat get hot if he struggles again this season? Remains to be seen. In a sane world, no. Not much more can be expected of Sha until the NIL budget improves. But ADs are not always rational creatures. If you’re a Pirate fan, keep buying the pesto!

Roster:

Starters

PG: Budd Clark (Jr.), 5’10” 165 lbs.
SG: AJ Staton-McCray (R-Sr.), 6’4” 200 lbs.
SF: Tajuan Simpkins (Jr.), 6’4” 190 lbs.
PF: Elijah Fisher (Sr.), 6’6” 220 lbs.
C: Godswill Erheriene (So.), 6’9” 225 lbs.

Rotation Bench

PG Trey Parker (So.), 6’0” 180 lbs.
F Josh Rivera (Sr.), 6’6” 225 lbs.
C Najai Hines (Fr.), 6’10” 265 lbs.
F Jacob Dar (Sr.), 6’7” 190 lbs.
C Stephon Payne III (Sr.), 6’9” 235 lbs.
SG Mike Williams III (Jr.), 6’3” 185 lbs.
PF Patrick Suemnick (Gr.), 6’8” 235 lbs.
SG Jasheem Felton (So.), 6’5” 205 lbs.

Bench Warmers

C Assane Mbaye (So.), 7’2” 190 lbs.
PG David Gabriel (Sr.), 6’1” 175 lbs.

Big Non-Conference Games:

Maui Invitational

11/24, 2:30pm v. NC State (N), ESPN2
11/25, 2:30pm or 5:00pm, v. Boise St. or USC (N), ESPN/ESPN2
11/26, TBD, Wash. St. or Chaminade or Ariz. St. or Texas, ESPN/ESPN2

12/6, TBD, at K-State, TBD
12/13 8:00pm, v. Rutgers, FS1

What’s Old: Godwsill Erheriene, an undoubted member of the Big East’s all-name team. As a raw freshman, Godswill averaged just 2.8/2.9/0.2 on 56.2/0.0/30.8 in just 14.2 mpg. However, he made his presence felt on the defensive end where he blocked 2.2 shots per 100 possessions, 1.4 per 40, and at the rim, snagging 8.1 rebounds per 40. He also averaged 7.9 points per 40, 12.3 per 100 possessions. He also had the highest total rebound percentage on the team (12.6%), and 2nd best D rebound percentage (16.2%). All of which is to say the potential is there for Godswill to have a sneaky breakout season. He’s likely to start at the 5, and they’re going to need a big year from Godswill if they want to get themselves out of the cellar.

Jasheem Felton played in 26 games for the Pirates last season, averaging 3.5/1.3/0.7 on 31.4%/34.6%/77.3% in 16.7 MPG. He took 25% of his shots from 3 last year, which equated to just 9 makes in 26 attempts, but he can certainly provide some shooting pop off the bench for this team. Otherwise, I am skeptical of his ability to contribute meaningfully. Indeed, of players who logged at least 200 minutes for Hall last season, Felton had the worst OBPM on the team (-5.9) and the worst DBPM (-1.1). If there is some hope it’s that perhaps with a bit more experience and the understanding of Sha’s system, he can turn himself into a meaningful 3 & D guy. Given that he’s the tallest guard on the roster at 6’5”, if he can be a better defender, he can certainly carve out a 3&D role for the defensive-minded Holloway.

This is as good a point as any to highlight one of the characteristics of this roster: there’s definitely some depth here. The issue is a lot of it is unproven and/or surrounded by questions marks. This is why I have 8 guys in the “rotation” category, plus the 5 starters. Of course Sha isn’t going to have a 13-man rotation. However, once you get past the starters, the roster very much takes on a “throw a bunch of guys into the mix and hope enough of them stick.” It’s not the worst strategy in the world for a program that lacks the NIL budget at this time to produce an elite roster. It will be very interesting to see how that uncertainty plays out.

Assane Mbaye did not play last season. A local product of The Patrick School, he was an unheralded recruit. His size is certainly tantalizing, but given a bit of a log-jame at center, behind Godswill, top-100 freshman Najai Hines, and senior transfer Stephon Payne, it’s unlikely Mbaye sees the floor this year.

David Gabriel appeared in just 6 games. He is similarly unlikely to provide much this season.

What’s New: Adam “Budd” Clark joins the Pirates from Merrimack in the MAAC. Clark comes in with a host of accolades, including 2023-24 NEC Rookie of the Year and a unanimous 2024-25 First Team All-MAAC selection. Clark is a BUCKET, and he’ll be the engine that drives the Pirates offense. Defensively, Clark’s size is certainly cause for concern at this level. However, Clark is an absolute ball hawk, getting 2.7 steals per game last season. He posted a 98.3 D-rating and 1.6 DBPM for the ‘mack in the MAAC last season.

He’s small.

Offensively, Clark was 3rd nationally in both usage and assist rate last season. He posted 19.8/4.5/6.0 on 44.6/28.6/77.8 shooting in 36.9 mpg. Whether he can remain an elite scorer at this level is an open question. The lack of a 3-point shot, and his small stature indicate he may struggle. That’s particularly true when you consider that he took 37.2% of his shots at the rim last season, according to CBB Analytics, with another 19.6% coming in the paint. He’ll need to use his speed and athleticism to finish around the much better and larger interior defenders that will be waiting for him at the rim in the Big East. In conference only last season, Clark posted an O-Rating of 103.9, which fell off to 99.1 versus KenPom tier A&B competition (6 games) and even harder to 84.1 in 4 games versus just tier A competition.

Where I have much, much less concern is Clark’s ability to be a distributor at the Big East level. In contrast to his O-Rating, his assist rate actually improved against top competition, rising from 42.6 to 44.6 vs. tiers A&B and 46.2 vs. just tier A, per KenPom. He also boasts a quality 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio.

Which begs the question, who can Clark distribute to? Hall was positively offensively challenged last season, ranking 315 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, 98.8, which fell to 94.1, by far the worst in the Big East, a full 4.7 points worse than 10th ranked DePaul. They do not have a single player on this year’s roster who has scored more than 10.5 ppg at the high-major level.

TJ Simpkins will be one of Clark’s starting back-court mates. Simpkins posted 14.6/3.8/2.9 on 40.8/26.3/81.1, adding in 1.6 steals for Elon. He’s a versatile guard who can certainly handle the ball when Clark is on the bench, and play off the ball when he needs to. While his 3-point shooting was poor last season, the mechanics appear to be there given his 81.1% FT conversion rate. Hall fans will hoping that’s a sign of things to come from behind the arc.

The most-experienced man on the roster is guard AJ Staton-McCray, a transfer from Miami (FL), where he played one year after playing his first 3 seasons at Samford. McCray played 21.8 mpg for the abysmal Miami team that drove Jim Larranaga into retirement. He posted 7.3/2.4/1.0 on 40.4/32.3/82.9. Two-seasons ago, he shot 41.3% from deep for Samford on 3 attempts per game. If Hall can get him closer to the 35% mark, it will be huge for this offense. Like Simpkins, the FT shooting–83% across the last 2 seasons and 79% for his career–certainly gives hope that last season’s 32.3% was a function of being on a bad team that ranked 274th in assists on the season.

Elijah Fisher will round out the starting 5. Fisher is a large guard, clocking in at 6’6”. He’s long and strong. He returns to the Big East after playing 2023-24 with DePaul, before moving on to Pacific. Fisher is the most-proven scorer at this level, posting 10.2 ppg 2 seasons ago for DePaul. Last season for Pacific he posted 15.7/4.8/1.5 on 48.3/29.7/74.8. Once again, shooting is a concern with Fisher. However, having taken a year to develop at Pacific, I think he returns to the Big East and posts something closer to last year’s 15 ppg, than his 2023-24 total at DePaul.

Defensively, this leaves a lot of questions, presuming this is the starting lineup. I tend to pull starters from the 3 Man Weave Basket Under Review previews and the Burner Ball Depth Charts, and then supplement with my own thoughts, if I have a major difference of opinion. In the case of Hall, I am not sure what to make of the starting 5 put out by those 2 sources, as it contains 4 guards, a 5’10” PG, 2-6’4” guards, and the 6’6” Fisher. Certainly there will be times when Hall needs to match-up bigger. The true 4 options all leave much to be desired.

Jacob Dar is a big strong 6’7”, so he can provide a bit more height. Dar comes over from Rice, in the AAC, so he should have less growing pains than guys like Clark or Simpkins who are coming from lesser leagues. Dar has the ability to be a spark plug off the bench. He shot 37% from deep last year while taking nearly 58% of his shots from deep. In 19.8 mpg he posted 7.5 ppg and 3.7 apg. It should be noted that while Dar is a senior, his first 2 seasons were in D2. It’s entirely possible that he improves this season after taking a good bit of last season to adjust. In the last 15 games of Rice’s season Dar posted 11.6 ppg and 4.7 rpg in 27.9 mpg, while shooting 42.3/38.4/73.5. Even more encouraging is that he shot 38.4 percent at 4.9 3-point attempts per game, a healthy volume of shots. He notched all 13 of his starts in that span.

Another player off the bench coming from a quality mid-major league is Josh Rivera. Rivera comes to South Orange from the Boogie Down Bronx, where he posted 10.7/4.3/1.1 for Fordham on 44.3/31.6/54.1 shooting. Once again, shooting is an issue. In an NJ.com article about the commitment, one anonymous A10 coach said he’d be the 9th or 10th man on a good team, and I’m not sure who should be more insulted, Rivera or Seton Hall.

Patrick Suemnick is another option to provide some size of the bench, clocking in at 6’8”, 235 lbs. Suemnick has been around the block, starting his career at Robert Morris, where he posted just 2.4 ppg in 8.4 mpg, before transferring to JUCO, resurfacing in D-1 with 2 seasons at West Virginia, where he averaged 3 ppg and 2.1 rpg in 10.6 mpg. He transferred intra-conference to Oklahoma State, where he scored 2.9 ppg & 1,9 rpg in 11.7 mpg. All of this leaves serious questions about whether Suemnick can contribute at the high major level.

Circling back to the back court, Hall brings in Trey Parker (no relation to the more famous Trey Parker) from NC State. Parker was a 4-star recruit out of Overtime Elite. He posted 4.6 ppg in 11.9 mpg, while shooting 35.7% from deep (20/56). Along with Dar, Parker looks to provide a major shooting pop off the bench. If he can keep similar production in more minutes, he could very easily push for a starting role, although it would be a tough ask defensively to play the 6’0” Parker alongside 5’10” Budd Clark.

Another option for size off the bench is Stephon Payne III. Payne is 6’9” and long, which will be a big advantage defensively. Payne joins from Jacksonville where he posted 8.4 ppg and 6.3 rpg in 21.1 mpg. However, Payne doesn’t offer much in the way of shooting.

Rounding out the transfer additions is Mike Williams. Williams is a former 4* recruit transferring in from LSU where he posted 5.9/1.8/1.0 in 11.2 MPG on 36.5/32.4/75.0 shooting. Another player with some shooting question marks. However, in his freshman campaign he shot 37.1% from deep on 3.2 attempts per game. Between that and his 75% FT rate, he very well may be a good shooter, and if so can provide another shooting weapon off the bench.

On the freshmen front, Hall brings in 6’10” 4-star Najai Hines. Hines is a beast defensively, sporting size and strength, and is reported to be a high-level rim protector, despite not having a prototypical shot-blocker’s body. Hines’ shooting, like most of the roster, leaves much to be desired.

The Optimist’s Take: Simpkins and Staton-McCray find their stroke from deep. Najai Hines is college-ready from day 1, and seriously pushes Godswill for the starting role by the time Big East play starts. Budd Clark makes a seamless transition to the high-major level. Parker and Dar provide shooting and scoring pop off the bench. Sha produces another great defense in which the system and the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Do all that, and perhaps the bubble is within grasp.

The Hater’s Take: They have a lot of big men who can’t shoot, and who therefore cannot be on the floor together without creating spacing issues. This is exacerbated by poor shooting from the wings and guards. Defensively, one of the shocking things to see in reviewing this roster is how mediocre this roster is as individual defenders. Here’s the career D-ratings of the projected rotation guys:

Budd Clark: 97.0 (in the MAAC)
TJ Simpkins: 106.4 (in the CAA)
AJ Staton-McCray: 102.9 (118.8 on a bad Miami team last year)
Elijah Fisher: 115.9
Godswill Erheriene: 111.3 (but another year under Sha might show some improvement)
Trey Parker: 109.2
Josh Rivera: 108.0
Najai Hines: N/A (expect frosh growing pains defensively)
Jacob Dar: 107.9
Stephon Payne III: 101.5 (in Southland & A-Sun)
Mike Williams II: 106.5
Patrick Suemnick: 111.4

That’s…not great Sha…Clark is the only defender under 100 D-rating, and he is undersized at this level, and posted that rating in a bottom-10 conference. Sha will have his work cut out for him in taking a bunch of middling defenders, and turning them into a coherent unit capable of playing the stellar defense Sha’s teams are known for. If things go bad, it will be because Sha couldn’t build a stout defense from these parts.

Fan Pulse: Everyone is underestimating us, Budd Clark is the truth, just you wait and see. At least we’re better than last year. Loading up on Pirate Pesto,™ the most beautiful and perfect synergy of an NIL and its regional fan base.

Bottom Line: Another long year loading in South Orange. If everything falls just right, they might be able to move up a place or two in the standings on the strength of Sha’s coaching ability. Purely on talent, this is the worst roster in the Big East. I would not expect them to be as bad as last season, which saw Hall finish 204 in KenPom, their worst in the history of KenPom by a wide margin (previous low was 117 in 2012-13). However, they still project as the worst team in the league, and I’d expect a 100-120 finish in most metrics.

Prediction: 12-19 (4-16), 11th Place

BIG East Preview 2025-26

The headliners.

Can the Johnnies repeat last season’s double? Does UConn get back on top? Can the league break free from low pre-season expectations?

The Big East is coming off a decent year, in which it sent 5 teams to the tournament, co-headlined by Big East double-champs St. John’s and defending back-to-back National Title defenders UConn, earning a 2-seed and an 8-seed, respectively. They were joined by Creighton (9 seed), Marquette (7 seed) and Xavier (11 seed, First Four). Once there, the results were not great.

St. John’s underachieved, taking care of 15-seed Omaha, before losing to 10-seed Arkansas in the Round of 32. UConn held seed, beating No. 9 Oklahoma, before the back-to-back defending champs fittingly fell to eventual National Champion Florida. Creighton did similarly, beating 8-seed Louisville, before falling to Final Four bound Auburn. Marquette fell victim to an upset at the hands of new Big East coach Richard Pitino and 10-seed New Mexico. Speaking of Richard, Xavier beat Texas in Dayton, before falling to Illinois in the Round of 64. Texas got the last laugh, poaching Sean Miller to Austin, leaving Xaiver to hire Richard.

Several Big East squads also went Crowning, with Villanova making it all the way to the Crown Final Four, before falling to UCF in OT. That run was led by interim head coach Mike Nardi, now an assistant at UConn. Villanova ultimately brought back a familiar face for Big East fans, hiring Kevin Willard away from Maryland amid some internal strife in College Park. Butler and Georgetown each won a crown game before falling to Boise State and eventual-Crown champion Nebraska, respectively. DePaul fell in the first round to Cincinnati.

Coaching Seat Temperature Check
(in order of 2024-25 finish)

St. John’s, Rick Pitino: Ice cold. Rick will retire as Johnnies coach if that’s what he wants.

Creighton, Greg McDermott: Ice cold, he’s never getting fired, but succession planning has begun in Omaha, with the Huss bus coming back into the fold after 2 excellent years at High Point: CBI Runner-Up in year 1 and the program’s first-ever D1 NCAAT berth in year 2. With Huss on board, the retirement watch is on. Probably won’t be his last season this year, but you never know.

UConn, Danny Hurley: Colder than ice. Winning 2 nattys will do that.

Marquette, Shaka Smart: Lukewarm. Just saying that will probably catch me a lot of flack. I could probably spill 10,000 words discussing Shaka’s position right now. No one has done more with one fluky Final Four run than Shaka Smart. In the 14 years since, he’s had more missed NCAATs (2) than trips to the second weekend. Will Marquette fans get restless with under-talented rosters and a coach who refuses to supplement from the portal? Probably not this year, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Continuity is important, but eschewing the portal to focus solely on continuity is cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face. Imagine if Marquette had brought in a big man from the portal last season, one with 2 or 3 years left. Would’ve been huge, and set them up for the trendy “2-bigs” everyone seems to want to play these days, with portal big on the inside and Gold on the outside, where he’s better. All to say, with a less-talented roster this year, and no incoming portal help, there’s a non-zero chance he finds his seat getting hot this year. But it’s very small.

The prodigal son

Xavier, Richard Pitino: Ice cold. Year 1. Going to get a few years to get it right.

Villanova, Kevin Willard: Ice cold. Year 1. Going to get a few years to get it right. And after the Kyle Neptune era, the steady build from mediocrity to competitive over the next few years will be a welcome change on the Main Line.

Georgetown, Ed Cooley: Quite warm, per the local weatherwoman. Ewing left the cupboard bare, no doubt. The program was at its lowest point since John Thompson took over a 3-23 squad in 1972. Even the Esherick years weren’t that bad. However, none of that is relevant. Ed Cooley–by his own words–took the job because Georgetown was a bigger brand than PC, and offered him a better platform to have more success than he had at PC. Ed is an established coach who does not have any learning curve upon taking the job. Georgetown promised, and by all accounts has mostly delivered a huge NIL budget. Year 1 to year 2 saw marked improvement, going from 9-23 to 18-16 overall, and 2-18 to 8-12 in conference. However, the era of small builds is over. The man their fans claim they could have had–Rick Pitino–turned around an equally moribund program in just 2 years, reaching 31 wins, and delivering the program’s first NCAAT win in 25 years. The Sorber loss really hurts the roster, which certainly doesn’t look any better than last year’s squad. Meaning year 3 could be a step backwards. If that happens, how much more patience will Georgetown fans exhibit?

Butler, Thad Matta: Warm. I think the world of Thad Matta as a coach, and I think he has to be in any conversation of the top-10 of coaches that never won a national title. He has a career 486-207 (.701) record, 2 Final Fours (including a runner-up finish in 2007), 2 Elite 8s, 2 Sweet 16s and an NIT championship. He posted 20 wins every season in Columbus except his last (17-15)...and stop me if you’ve heard this one before…he never had a losing season prior to returning to Butler in 2022. He now has 2 in 3 seasons, going a pedestrian 71-61 in his 2nd stint at Butler. Now, the NIL budget may not be there, and maybe that means everyone is content to continue along this path, but this is a program 15 years removed from consecutive Final Fours. This coming March they’ll be 8 years removed from their last NCAAT berth, Year 1 of LaVall Jordan after Chris Holtmann moved on to Columbus a la Thad before him. I reckon he’ll start to feel the heat if this season does not go well.

Providence, Kim English: Hot. Kim English sits on what I believe is the hottest seat in the conference. On-the court, Kim’s squad got snubbed year 1, and had some bad luck year 2 when Bryce Hopkins shut it down for the season after just a few games. Most times, a coach in these shoes wouldn’t be sweating yet. However, Friartown is different. The PC fans have begun to turn on Kim, who has done himself very few favors with a defiant, and seemingly arrogant attitude off the court. Couple that with a decent NIL budget, resulting in a roster that absolutely has the talent to make the NCAAT, and you have a recipe for a potential year 3 firing.

Depaul, Chris Holtmann: Cold. Year 1 of the Holtmann era at DePaul was a success. The program went from 3-29 to 14-20. They were pesky and fun to watch. Given the state this program has been in, that is an unqualified success. He’ll get a few more years before any one starts to dial up the heat on his seat.

Seton Hall, Shaheen Holloway: Cool. Year 3 of the Holloway era was an abject disaster. The program went from an NCAA snub that they turned into an NIT Championship to a 7-25 (2-18), non-competitive horror show that included losses to Fordham, Hofstra, and Monmouth. But what’s a coach to do? Hall has the worst NIL in the conference. Recruiting and retaining quality players has proven quite difficult. And at the end of the day, who is going to want to coach this program with its paltry NIL budget? In other words, even if this season is another disaster, it can always get worse.

Key Out of Conference Matchups

A lot of fans in rival conferences scoff at the idea of intraconference unity. Gary Parrish and Matt Norland were talking about this one a recent podcast, and apparently many B1G fans mailed in to say “I wouldn’t want the B1G’s 25 year NCAA title drought to end if it meant my team’s rival was the winner.” For most Big East fans, we feel the opposite. That’s not to say we are not bitter rivals from late December through early March–look no further than the UConn-PC vitriol, or the PC-Georgetown Ed Cooley inspired feud. But at the end of the day, most of us root for the conference outside of conference play. In the NCAAT, in OOC play and in recruiting.

For me, the difference is that the reconstituted Big East has never had the luxury of being able to have such deep-rooted hatred for one another. The barbarian has been at our gates since Day 1. This is a league that by all accounts should not exist in this football-dominated world. It is a basketball-first, football-less league in an increasingly football dominant world. Since the day the reconstituted Big East was announced, we’ve had to fight, and earn, and prove we belonged. Villanova went a long way to doing that in the Jay Wright era. UConn’s return has certainly helped. The steady elite play of Creighton has helped. The re-emergences of St. John’s has helped. If Georgetown can re-emerge it would be at least as helpful.

The point here is that every time the Big East is exposed to other power conference or elite mid-major teams, it feels like an existential battle. Every W means more, and ever L is a referendum on the conference’s ability to continue existing as currently constructed.

So in order to maintain that the Big East must play and win big games. Last year, versus the other power conferences the Big East went:

ACC: 5-2

B1G: 4-7

Big12: 5-9

SEC: 4-5

Top Mid-Majors (<100 KP): 5-5 (Dayton 2x, George Mason, St. Joe’s, VCU, Memphis, New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV and Gonzaga)

Total: 23-28

That’s…not great.

This year, here’s the key out of conference matchups for each team (high majors + top mid-majors), with that team’s Torvik projection in parenthesis:

Butler

11/15 @ SMU (46)
11/21 S. Carolina (107) - Greenbrier Tip-Off
11/23 UVa (N) (35) - Greenbrier Tip-Off
12/6 Boise St. (48)
12/20 NWern (N) (68)

Creighton

11/11 @ Gonzaga (24)
11/24 Baylor (N) (34) - Player’s Era
11/25 Iowa St. (N) (15) - Player’s Era
11/26 TBD - Player’s Era Third Game
12/7 @ Nebrasketball (44)
12/13 Kansas St. (61)

DePaul

11/14 NWern (68)
11/28 Ga. Tech (N) (86) - Emerald Coast Classic
11/29 Drake (138) or LSU (67) (N) - Emerald Coast Classic

Georgetown

11/7 @ Maryland (41)
11/15 Clemson (52)
11/27 Dayton (N) (77) - Terry’s Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational
11/28 BYU (6) or Miami (55) (N) - Terry’s Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational
12/7 @ UNC (18)

Marquette

11/9 Indiana (N) (42)
11/15 Maryland (41)
11/19 Dayton (77)
11/28 Oklahoma (N) (31)
12/6 @ Wisconsin (29)
12/13 @ Purdue (4)

Providence

11/8 Va. Tech (N) (74)
11/14 @ Colorado (100)
11/22 Penn St. (N) (102)
11/27 Wisconsin (N) (29) - Rady’s Children’s Invitational
11/28 Florida (5) or TCU (56) (N) - Rady’s Children’s Invitational

Seton Hall

11/24 N.C. St. (N) (39) - Maui Invitational
11/25 USC (25) or Boise St. (48) (N) - Maui Invitational
11/26 Texas (36), Washington St.(143), Arizona St. (71) or Chaminade (D2) (N) - Maui Invitational
12/6 @ Kansas St. (61)
12/13 Rutgers (98)

St. John’s

11/8 Alabama (20)
11/24 Iowa St. (N) (15) - Player’s Era
11/25 Baylor (N) (34) - Player’s Era
11/26 TBD (N) - Player’s Era
12/6 Ole Miss (43)
12/20 Kentucky (N) (14)

UConn

11/15 BYU (N) (6)
11/19 Arizona (12)
11/28 Illinois (N) (7)
12/2 @ Kansas (17)
12/9 Florida (N) (5)
12/12 Texas (36)

Villanova

11/3 BYU (N) (6)
12/9 @ Michigan (3)
12/13 Pitt (76)
12/19 Wisconsin (N) (29)

Xavier

11/10 Santa Clara (89)
11/14 @ Iowa (38)
11/21 Georgia (N) (33) - Charleston Classic
11/23 Clemson (52) or WVU (57) (N) - Charleston Classic
12/5 Cincinnati (32)

That’s 56 games, 5 more than last year’s total of 51. An average of 5 games per program versus power conference and top-100 mid-major programs. The Big East is also well-reprsented in the major MTEs this year, with 2 teams playing in the Player’s Era (SJU & Creighton), Seton Hall playing in Maui, Providence playing a surprisingly stacked Rady’s Children’s Invitational,  Xavier playing in Charleston and Georgetown playing the ESPN Events Invitational. That should be good for the #brand.

Conference Awards Predictions

POY: Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s. The returning big man will likely be the preseason BE POY. Honestly, though, this feels like a pretty wide open race. Of his own teammates, certainly Bryce Hopkins or Ian Jackson are candidates. Solo Ball is definitely capable as well, and would probably be my 2nd choice. Jason Edwards also has the talent if Kim figures things out in Providence. Malik Mack and Josh Dix are candidates as well.

DPOY: Dillon Mitchell, St.John’s. That’s right, I’m going full homer. St. John’s defense is likely to take a step back, after all, they were 2nd in AdjDE per KenPom last season, but they are still going to have an elite defense, and Dillon Mitchell will be the anchor. Other candidates include Tarris Reed, Stevie Mitchell, and a bit of a dark horse Owen Freeman if he can step into Kalkbrenner’s shoes anchoring Creighton’s defense.

FOY: Braylon Mullins, UConn. A top-15 freshman, he’s the only freshman I really expect to have a huge positive impact on his team. Acaden Lewis will certainly get every opportunity, as he’s going to get a ton of minutes for Villanova, but I just can’t see him having a huge year 1.

MIP: Oswin Erhunmwunse, Providence. Oswin was a beast on the boards, pulling in 5.6 in just 20 minutes, good for a per-40 figure of 11.2, he also had 6.8 ppg, 13.5 per 40. He also has 1.6 BPG, 3.2 per 40. With more minutes and a sophomore jump, I think we see a massive year from Oswin as a rim protector, offensive rebounder, and put back machine. Other candidates: Layden Blocker, Royce Parham, Ruben Prey, Tyler Perkins

Sixth Man: Malachi Smith, UConn. He’s going to be the back-up to Silas DeMary, but Smith is an elite ballhandler in his own right, posting a 5 to 2 assists to TO ratio at Dayton. He’s a credible deep threat at 38.8% in his career, albeit on limited volume (2 attempts per game). He’s also the clearest candidate, as he’ll definitely be coming off the bench. The SJU starting lineup, e.g., is a bit more fluid, but I would expect whomever is the odd man out–likely Sellers, Sanon, Hopkins or Mitchell–to be a Sixth Man candidate as well. If Bryce Lindsay comes off the bench for Villanova (and they start Lewis, Devin Askew and Tyler Perkins in the backcourt), he could be a candidate. A dark horse candidate for me would be Tre Norman. He has not done much in 2 years at Marquette, but he’ll be asked to step into a much bigger role this season. He’ll be the first guard off the bench in a guard-heavy system. He’s a very good defender, if he can improve offensively, he’ll be a candidate as well.

Friar and Future BE COY?

COY: Kim English. I think Kim turns it around this season, and turns down the heat on his seat. The roster has too much talent for me to think otherwise. Kim takes Providence from a 9th place finish a year ago, to 4th place this season behind SJU, UConn and Creighton.

All Big East First Team

Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s
Solo Ball, UConn
Jason Edwards, Providence
Josh Dix, Creighton
Chase Ross, Marquette
Malik Mack, Georgetown

All Big East Second Team

Bryce Hopkins, St. John’s
Tarris Reed, UConn
Alex Karaban, UConn
Oswin Erhunmwunse, Providence
Owen Freeman, Creighton

All Big East Third Team

Ian Jackson, St. John’s
KJ Lewis, Georgetown
CJ Gunn, DePaul
All Wright, Xavier
Braylon Mullins, UConn

All Big East Freshman Team

Braylon Mullins, UConn
Acaden Lewis, Villanova
Jamier Jones, Providence
Adrien Stevens, Marquette
Kelvin Odih, St. John’s
Azavier “Stink” Robinson, Butler


PROJECTED FINISH

It should be an interesting season in the Big East. According to Bart Torvik’s current projections, SJU is 8th nationally, UConn 10th, Creighton 23rd, and the next 7 teams are grouped between 50 (Villanova) and 79 (Butler). This jives with my general view that outside of Seton Hall (125 in Torvik preseason), every team in the Big East is capable of making the NCAAT. Every team in that 50-79 range has significant question marks, and whichever among them can answer more of those questions in the affirmative will likely finish 4th. For my money, here is my projected order of finish:

1. St. John’s. - Homer, sure. But Gary Parrish picked us to win it all—like nationally—so am I really out-of-line here? You have an elite coach and an uber-talented roster, and to think there’s people out there betting against that? Not me!

2. *UConn - UConn is out for a vengeance. Hurley wants to get back on top of the league and the country. Coaching certainly won’t be an issue. Is this roster better than last year? Can Danny get the jumps he needs out of some key players? Those are the key questions for me.

3. *Creighton - McDermott has been steady Eddie throughout his Creighton tenure. But he’s almost never had a good defense outside of the Kalkbrenner years. Can this team be good enough defensively to challenge the top of the league and make a deep March run?

4. Providence - I am high on the Friars. While I’d be shocked if anyone can topple the duopoly atop the standings, I could see the Friars taking out one of them. The upside is there. The talent is there. It’s on Kim and his revamped staff to get it done.

5. Marquette - the ultimate test of Shaka’s portal-free philosophy. This is without a doubt the least amount of proven talent he’s returned since getting to Marquette. Can he do it again?

6. Georgetown - I really like this starting 5, expecting an all-Big East caliber season from Mack and big things from Halaifonua. Will it be enough? Is there enough depth here?

7. DePaul - Chris Holtmann returns a solid core, and assembles a roster that might get back to the quality defense that made his early Ohio State teams so good.

8. Xavier - The headline here is that I love the upside potential of this frontcourt. Could be very good and carry this team much higher than 8th.

9. Villanova - Willard sets a strong floor, but I’m not sold there’s enough talent here to do much more than meet the floor. Should be competitive throughout.

10. Butler - I’m not sure what I’m supposed to like on this roster. Ajayi, I guess? Another year of Jizzley Frazzlebuck? Couple that with a washed-up coach, and yeah…

11. Seton Hall - I think Sha is a great coach, and the talent has improved…but it’s still short of what one might expect of a Big East roster.

*Full preview coming soon

UConn in Trouble?

Danny may be right that he’s the best coach in the country, but he may be crazy to think it makes a lick of difference this season.

I’ve been itching to write a requiem for UConn all season. Danny Hurley just makes them so damn unlikeable. I usually enjoy marveling at the way in which great teams play ball. The beautiful fluidity of a Jay Wright offense was a site to behold, even as they were kicking our ass every game. Watching a Rick Pitino defense stifle its opponents this season has been electric as someone who is a huge fan of defense. But I’ve taken no such joy from UConn’s beautiful offensive sets.

…and now I get to finally write their requiem. It will probably end as well for me as it did for ESPN when they requiemed our entire league, but that has never stopped me before!

The Current State of the Huskies

Let’s start with the numbers. Most hilariously: 25. That is UConn’s AP Top 25 ranking this week. They maintained a top-25 ranking despite losing to un-ranked Xavier and being taken to overtime at home by a Butler team squarely in the league’s bottom-3, 2 games behind the next teams (4-5 Georgetown and Providence).

There's a strong case that UConn is closer to the wrong side of the bubble than they are to top-25 status. Here’s the numbers:

NET: 36
Record: 14-6 (6-3)
Road Record: 4-2
SOS (NET): 53
OOC SOS (NET): 62

Predictive (Efficiency) Metrics

KenPom: 36
Torvik: 34
BPI: 18 (there’s a reason you don’t even hear this metric cited on ESPN, even though it’s their proprietary metric)
AVERAGE: 29.33 (35 if you remove BPI)

Resume Metrics

WAB: 45
KPI: 51
SOR: 42
AVERAGE: 46

ALL METRICS AVERAGE (incl. NET): 37.67

WINS OVER AT-LARGE TEAMS: 3-Baylor; Texas; Gonzaga (based teams currently in Bracket Matrix’s composite field)

Q1A: 2-0
Q1: 3-3
Q2: 4-2
Qs1&2: 7-5
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 5-0

Bracket Matrix: 8-seed
Franketology: 9-seed

They've fallen into the 30's in the 2 most important predictive metrics. More concerning, they've fallen to 51 in KPI, 45 in WAB and 42 in SOR, an average of 46. Think of it this way, the committee usually looks to resume metrics to set the field, before relying more on predictive metrics for seeding it. Doing the math, a 46 ranking would equate to a 12-seed, which would would put them as the first team out in my bracket (46th is currently my highest auto-bid: UC San Diego). That is dangerously close to the bubble for a team coming off back-to-back national championships. Of course the committee isn’t so rigid. We wouldn’t need the committee if we were going for such rigidity. But your resume metrics are your starting point. From there UConn is buoyed upward by the 3 Q1 wins and 3 wins over the at-large field, as well as its predictives average of 29.33.

UConn is playing with fire. A single inefficient loss could harm their resume metrics and predictives enough to drop them squarely on to the bubble.

Despite being dangerously close to the bubble, the UConn brand was still enough to dupe moronic AP voters. It's laughable to me that UConn is still in the top-25, and it gets even more laughable when you consider who they are in over. Receiving votes from most to least: Michigan, Maryland, Utah State, Clemson, Arizona, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, Texas. You can make a case for each of these to be 25th, with the exception of St. Mary’s, who I will single out because they lack a single Q1 win or a win over the field. I’d suspect UConn will fall out unless they win in Milwaukee Saturday, while Maryland, Michigan and/or Arizona move in come next Monday.

Let’s take a little closer look at the top-2 from that list. First team out of the AP Top 25 is Michigan. Michigan has 2 Q1A wins like UConn, 3 Q1 wins, like UConn, UConn gets the slight edge for having 3 wins over the at-large field, versus just 2 for Michigan. The metrics point squarely to Michigan, sporting a 20.0 predictives average versus a 24.67 metrics average, 9 and 22 spots better than UConn. Michigan, like UConn, took its worst loss against a bad high major: Minnesota, 90th in KenPom. Michigan has been up and down the last couple weeks, but that speaks more to the reactionary nature of AP Poll voters. If you line these 2 resumes up without any dates, Michigan is the clear better resume. Franketology and Bracket Matrix both put Michigan on the 5-seed line.

At 27th, we have Maryland. Maryland has a 30.67 resume average and an 18.33 predictives average, 16 and 11 spots better than UConn, respectively. They're riding a 3-game win streak, beating Nebraska at home before beating Illinois on the road by 21 in a statement game, and backing that up with another road W at Indiana by 1. They now have 3 Q1 wins versus no bad losses. They also have 3 wins against the field, like UConn. Their "worst" loss is a road loss at 96 KenPom Washington, which aligns with UConn’s loss to Colorado.

Franketology has the Terrapins on the 5-seed line, while Bracket Matrix currently has them as a 9-seed. Important to note because of update cycles and the time it takes the Matrix’s panel of Bracketologists to absorb new data, BracketMatrix tends to be a trailing indicator for teams on the rise like Maryland, as well as for teams on the fall (like UNC). I suspect they’ll be moving up 2-3 seed lines Monday barring a bad loss tomorrow versus Wisconsin. Even a narrow loss at home probably sees them continuing to climb. It’s absolutely insane to think a team with an 18 predictives average and a road win by 21 at KenPom no. 21 Illinois, and a win over KenPom 32 UCLA and 28 Ohio St. at home is somehow not a top-25 team. They’d have absolutely gotten my vote for the AP Top-25. I’m sure my vote is coming any season now…lol.

Since winning at DePaul, UConn has played .500 ball losing on the road to Villanova and X and at home to Creighton, while winning home games vs. PC and Butler. It's lone road Big East win in this stretch was at Georgetown. While Georgetown has been much improved this year, they’re not an NCAAT team.

It's worth noting that UConn has not been good on the road, beating Butler by just 4, falling at Villanova and at X, and looking vulnerable winning by 13 versus a game Blue Demons side. They’ve also struggled to beat the rest of the top 6 teams in the Big East (Marq., SJU, Creighton, X, Villanova), going just 1-3 in 4 games so far, and needing overtime to beat Xavier at home, a game that pre-dates the McNeeley injury.

Having 3 conference losses, while still having to face SJU and Marquette twice each, and make the trip to Omaha, is not an enviable position. Per KenPom, the Huskies have played the 9th toughest conference schedule to date. Notably the easiest conference schedules belong to Marquette and SJU. These 3 teams have yet to play each other, so it makes sense. But the difference here is Marquette and SJU have suffered 1 loss apiece versus their soft schedules. UConn has suffered 3. KenPom and Torvik both project UConn to go 7-4 the rest of the way, resulting in a 13-7 conference record, which projects to 4th place. A far cry from the heights of the last 2 years.

Maybe it’s just the McNeeley factor. UConn did look like it had turned the corner and figured it out before the McNeeley injury, and the losses in question came by 2, 5 and 4 points. So it is entirely possible McNeeley is the reason, in which case I’ll look like an idiot for writing this column.

What’s Wrong With UConn?

A true icon of sport and screen.

This season is Danny Hurley’s “I’m Keith Hernandez” moment. For those unclear, this is a reference to a Seinfeld episode, The Boyfriend, in which Jerry befriends Met legend Keith Hernandez, playing a fictionalized version of himself. The iconic episode includes many legendary Seinfeld bits such as Vandelay Industries, Jerry breaking up with Keith, and Newman and Kramer attempting to get Keith Hernandez to apologize for spitting on them over a decade earlier (SPOILER ALERT: it wasn’t Keith).

For our purposes though, the important part is that Hernandez would use the line “I’m Keith Hernandez” as a justification for any action, or as a statement that would bend the world to his whims. It was a hilarious caricature of the oblivious, self-absorbed jock.

Danny Hurley is in his “I’m Keith Hernandez” season. And you might say “come on Frank, Danny is a back-to-back national champion, he knows what it takes to win and isn’t resting on his laurels.” To which I’d reply…does he? Are you sure he does? Because he effectively said “I’m Danny fucking Hurley” the other day…screaming at Nate Farrell “[d]on’t turn your back on me, I’m the best coach in the fucking sport.” Fuck Nate Farrell, he probably deserved it, but fuck Hurley too.

True though it may be at this moment—that Hurley is the best coach in the country right now—it’s definitely a flash of Hurley’s arrogance shining through. It’s also a slap in the face to the many legendary coaches with resumes as good as Hurley’s, who are still in the game, Rick Pitino chief among them. Hurley said as much when asked in a recent interview about regretting the “best coach in the country comment” and rather than take a moment to be even slightly humble, to perhaps apologize to the official for letting his temper get the best him, and admitting that he doesn’t deserve special treatment because of his success, he took the time to state that he was only embarrassed to face his fellow coaches who he respects and admires. Arrogance. Hubris…Pride. It always comes before the fall.

In my humble opinion it’s part of what doomed this UConn season from the start: confidence and ability giving way to pride and hubris. Doomed of course being a relative term. Huskies should still make the tournament, but they’re a far cry from the heights of the last 2 years. This is not your older brother’s UConn Huskies.

Let’s recap what has occurred for the Huskies since roughly April 1 of 2023:

• Danny Hurley, Adama Sanogo, and Andre Jackson, lead the Huskies to their first national title in 9 years, with assistance from a gawky freshman 7-footer named Donovan Clingan, sharp-shooting freshman Alex Karaban, and PG-in-waiting Tristen Newton.

• The Huskies lose Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins, and junior guard Andre Jackson to the NBA.

• The Huskies lose sharpshooter Joey Calcaterra to graduation, and end-of-rotation piece Nahiem Alleyne to the transfer portal.

• This left the Huskies with: Tristen Newton, Alex Karaban, Donovan Clingan, Hassan Diarra, and Samson Johnson as potential contributors in 2023-24.

• Newton was an 18-ppg scorer in the AAC and a top-50 transfer who happily took a smaller role in year one at UConn, and was always poised to re-find that form in a larger role in year 2. Clingan was a top-60 prospect in the 247 Composite Ranking, and spent a year developing behind Sanogo, a heady big who played larger than his frame would indicate. Karaban was the 4th leading scorer on the team behind Sanogo, Hawkins and Newton.

  • In other words, there was reason to believe these 3 would step up in a big way in year 2.

• However, that didn’t stop Danny from hitting the trail, adding sharp-shooting guard Cam Spencer from Rutgers, top-10 freshman Stephon Castle, and top-70 recruits Solo Ball and Jaylin Stewart.

• Hurley pressed all the right buttons:

  • Newton stepped into the lead guard role perfectly, earning All-American honors, slashing 15.1/6.6/6.2

  • Spencer provided grit, energy, shooting pop, and secondary ball handling

  • Clingan was ready to be the guy inside, posting 13/7.4/1.5, and adding in 2.5 blocks for good measure

  • Karaban improved and became the 3rd leading scorer with an eFG of 60%.

  • Castle, as expected of a top pick, was the 5th leading scorer, and came into his own as the back-up PG as the season wore on.

• The Huskies go on to win back-to-back national titles, losing only 3 times all season, only 1 of which came to a non-Big East team (their only loss to a non-Big East team in either of their 2 title runs). They were a wrecking ball.

• The roster once again loses several key players with Newton, Spencer, Clingan and Castle all turning pro. The good news? No one of significance hit the transfer portal

• Hurley turned down the Lakers job with an eye towards a 3rd title

• The Huskies restocked at a significantly lower rate than years past. Danny added 1 impact freshman in Liam McNeely, as well as underachieving center Taris Reed from the portal by way of Michigan, and Aidan Mahaney from the portal by way of St. Mary’s (CA).

To date, this has not panned out this season. In year’s past UConn had elite athletic players that could guard multiple positions, and could bottle up their men one-on-one. They also always had clear stars. This year’s defense is an embarrassment for a team which such lofty expectations. The previous 2 seasons, UConn had the 4th best and 7th best defenses in the country per KenPom. This year’s defense ranks 130th. Karaban, Mahaney, Stewart, Ball, McNeeley, and Diarra all have D-Ratings over 120 ppg (100 is average, higher is worse). Mahaney’s DBPM is -1.5, an incredibly difficult feat on a team that still wins far more than it loses.

For comparison, the 2023-24 juggernaut did not have a single player who played more than 12 mpg, that had a D-Rating over 100. The highest regular player was Steph Castle at 99.3. The worst DBPM among regulars was Karaban’s 3.1. DBPM is cumulative, so it’s tough to compare, but it looks like Karaban’s DBPM should finish around that 3.0 mark, but his D-Rating has taken a significant drop-off from 99 last year to 107 this year.

Let’s just compare the rotations:

Starters (2023->2024->2025)

Danny Hurley, mouth agape, wondering where all his talent went…

C: Sanogo->Clingan->Johnson
F: Karaban->Karaban->Karaban
G/F: Hawkins->Spencer->McNeeley
SG: Newton->Castle->Ball
PG: Jackson->Newton->Diarra

Bench

C: Clingan->Johnson->Reed
F: Calcaterra->Stewart->Stewart
G: Alleyne->Ball->Ross
G: Diarra->Diarra->Mahaney

For my money, this is clearly the least talented team of the 3. The staff once again hit on a freshman who is able to contribute immediately (and in a big way), but the portal additions leave much to be desired. Mahaney has been putrid defensively, as has the whole team. Mahaney looks lost on that side of the ball, and sports a D-Rating of 113.2 and a DBPM of -1.5. Offensively he’s contributed just 5 ppg on 38.7% from the field. Reed was a bit better earlier in the year, but in conference play Johnson has been a bit better, but the two players are basically splitting the center minutes evenly. A far cry from the dominant front court players UConn saw in the first 2 years of this run.

The lack of high quality defensive perimeter players, as well as the lack of an elite front court has truly hampered UConn defensively, where they rank 130th in defense nationally per KenPom—only DePaul (177) and Villanova (183) are worse. The lack of perimeter defense is particularly glaring. The 3-pt % and rank, as well as their shooting percentage versus UConn of the 6 teams UConn lost to:

Memphis - 6th, 39.5%, 46.7% (14/30)
Colorado - 115th, 34.8, 38.7% (12/31)
Dayton - 53rd, 36.7%, 27.6% (8/29)
Villanova - 3rd, 40.0% (38.4% in conference, best in conference), 37% (10/27)
Creighton - 103rd, 35% (37.2% in conference, 2nd), 31.6% (6/19)
Xavier - 20th, 38.3% (37% in conference, 3rd), 30% (15/50 across 2 games)

In other words, UConn struggles with teams that can shoot from deep. They have not yet lost to a single team that shoots better than 38% on the season. Lest you think this some sort of weird anomaly, or potentially the fact that good teams tend to shoot better, UConn lost to the 71st-ranked offense in the country, Xavier, the 20th ranked 3-pt shooting team in the country. Providence’s offense is rated just 0.3 PPP rose than X, good for 75th in the country, but Providence only shoots at a 34.2% clip. UConn beat Providence. So it seems the issue is teams that shoot, and not just that they’ve faced quality offenses.

The damnedest thing about it is that it seemed on paper this team was likely to struggle. UConn got every benefit of the doubt with preseason predictions, but you definitely heard some hushed caveats about how the analyst thought they would take a step back but he was giving them the benefit of the doubt, particularly because Hurley clearly believed that the guys at the bottom of the rotation last year could step in and contribute. Analysts gave Hurley the benefit of the doubt.

But if you dig in, it was obvious to most that Karaban could not be the focal point of the team on defense. He was never going to be the defensive stalwart his predecessors were. It is also a lot to ask a guy with a limited offensive skill set to be THE GUY for a team with UConn’s goals and expectations. He’s simply not on that level. He’s a very good player, not an elite player. Hurley believing Karaban could be the number 1 guy on a national championship caliber team was always wishful thinking, and a major “I’m Keith Hernandez” moment from Danny.

Similarly in the front court Hurley’s hubris got the best of him. He brought in Adama Sanogo in 2021, and after a good campaign for a freshman (7.3 & 4.8, 1 bpg in 17 mpg), Danny expected Sanogo to step into a larger role, and he did so seamlessly, posting 14.8 & 8.8, with 2 blocks per game in 29.2 mpg, and he jumped again his last year at UConn, posting 17.2 & 7.7, with 1 bpg in 26.5 mpg.

UConn also had Donovan Clingan the last 2 years. His freshman year was similar to Sanogo’s, posting 7 & 5.6 with 2 bpg in 13 mpg. He upped his game in year 2 posting 13 & 7.4, adding 1.5 assists and 2.5 bpg as a sophomore.

Meanwhile, in 3 years prior to this at UConn, Johnson gave little reason to believe he could step into an expanded role. Johnson had only played 4.6 mpg over his first 2 seasons at UConn. Last season saw his mins quadruple to 16 mpg. He got 5.4 points per game, 2.5 rebounds and a block against mostly second string competition. But Danny had developed big men before, and his hubris blinded him to Johnson’s and Reed’s limitations.

In other words, it was obvious a Johnson/Reed front court wasn’t up to the level of play UConn expects. While Taris is an admirable back-up, Danny had his back-up in Johnson. He needed an elite starting-caliber big man in the portal, and for whatever reason, he did not get it. Whether Danny couldn’t find a better big man in the portal or he honestly had enough hubris to believe that Johnson would morph into the guy the way Clingan had done before him. Since I find it hard to believe the back-to-back champs would struggle to attract and pay talent, I’m left to believe this is a result of Danny’s hubris.

Going into last season it was Clingan and Newton, and it turned out Spencer and Karaban were ready to contribute far greater than everyone had suspected going into the 2023-24 season. They were excellent 2nd tier players for an elite caliber team.

This season? Who were the stars supposed to be? And be it loyalty to his guys to a fault, or just a complete arrogance about his ability to turn Karaban into a star on a championship-caliber team or Samson Johnson into something far greater than he’s shown, Hurley came into the year with the 3rd banana from last year’s team trying to be the star. So far, this is mostly a failure viewed through the lens of national championship or bust, which has to be the goal and expectation coming off back-to-back championships. Karaban is not capable of carrying a team in that way. He’s certainly not the lock down defender that UConn has had on the perimeter in years past.

We discussed above whether it was simply the McNeeley injury. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. Maybe we’ll find out when McNeeley returns, or maybe it will be one of life’s eternal mysteries. Regardless, the fact that the back-to-back National Champions can be so completely derailed by the absence of a true freshman is troubling. Moreso when you consider the circumstances: UConn’s roster only has 12 guys. UConn definitely has a healthy NIL budget. If I were a UConn fan I’d be frustrated wondering what might have been this season, had the off-season gone better.

Danny still had bullets left in the chamber, as UConn has only 12 men on its roster and could have added a 13th scholarship player. I’m sure if Danny needed it he could’ve found the NIL bag to attract a talent better than Reed and a perimeter defensive stalwart. He did neither of those things, and now the 3-peat dream is dying a slow death.

BIG EAST POWER RANKINGS: Opening Night Edition

My running bit on Twitter is my Reactionary Big East Power Rankings. I put them out at random intervals based on extreme recency bias. Many people still do not get the bit and attempt to argue with me. So without further ado, my Big East Power Rankings, Opening Night Edition. I am going to treat this edition of the Power Rankings as my pre-Big East season prediction. I’ll give you my final Big East standings and NCAAT, NIT or IN THE PORTAL EARLY ratings for each team. Subsequent editions (maybe monthly) will simply have the teams power-ranked and include a blurb for each. Here. We. Go.

THE CONTENDERS (for the conference)

1. Marquette - WAB 4, KPI 4, SOR 3 - Marquette is the clear cream of the crop, and will have no problem making the tournament. They’ve had an outstanding run in OOC play, knocking off Maryland, Purdue, Georgia, and Wisconsin, all home or neutral, with their own loss coming at T-Rank no. 7 Iowa State. One more test coming up at very game Dayton Flyers team on Saturday. Adding a Quad 1 road win (Dayton is currently no. 42 in T-Rank) would be the capstone on a fantastic OOC performance. While they’re most likely to finish atop the conference, and certainly want to land a high seed in March, Marquette could likely coast into the NCAAt with a 10-10 conference performance, maybe 11-9 at most. 

   Prediction: 27-4 (17-3) - NCAAT

2. St. John’s - WAB 49, KPI 33, SOR 50 - Probably a little bit of the homer in me, but I think St. John’s has been the 2nd best team in the conference thus far. They should have won the Baylor game had the referees initiated a proper replay review. They had an atrocious shooting night that cost them the Georgia game, but still only lost by 3 points, completely controlled New Mexico, UVa and Kansas State. UVa clearly sucks and Kansas State has not looked great, but I would still expect UNM and Kansas State to be near the bubble, at least, if not both in the tournament safely come March. Obviously, SJU has some work to do to improve those resume-based metrics, but they’ll have plenty of opportunities. WAB is likely to be particularly important this year. While it’s not the same as the NCAA’s WAB, Torvik’s WAB is likely to be similar, and frankly his site contains way more information than the NCAA site, particularly WAB values for each remaining game. These obviously change as teams get better or worse in Torvik’s efficiency ratings, but as of now the average win for SJU in conference play is worth .4375, meaning the average loss is -.5625, so, while I predict 16-4, the bare minimum SJU needs to make the NCAAT, based on my back of the envelope math is 13-7. Multiply 13 by .4375, multiply 7 by -.5625, subtract the L score from the W score, and it nets out to a 1.55 WAB. We are currently at .4 in WAB, and it should get to approximately .58 with wins over Bryant and Delaware, for a total WAB of 2.13. Last year no team over 1.0 was left out except Princeton. The highest the WAB bubble has been in recent years is 1.3. So we’d have 22 wins in a power conference, down though it may be, a top-30 WAB, probably similar in the other results-based metrics, and for seeding purposes we’d have elite metrics. I think we’re going to be fine. I’d say 85% chance we make the NCAAT.

   Prediction: 25-6 (16-4) - NCAAT

3. UConn - WAB 78, KPI 72, SOR 67 - UConn seems to have gotten their feet back under them after a disastrous Maui trip beginning with the shocking upset of Baylor. It’s not shocking in a vacuum, but to see this UConn team win against a top-tier opponent without Alex Karaban was very impressive. UConn backed it up by taking the show on the road, getting Karaban back, and whooping Texas on its home floor far worse than the 11-point margin would indicate. UConn has a chance on Saturday to add one more sterling line on its resume as they’ll meet Gonzaga in the World’s Most Famous Arena. UConn, even more so than St. John’s, needs to goose its resume-metrics if its to make the NCAAT. A win Saturday vs. Gonzaga would be a fantastic start, and would be worth +0.82 WAB, and would push their WAB back over 0 from -0.4 to +0.42, essentially putting UConn on the same resume-metrics footing as St. John’s heading into conference play. Of course UConn’s resume already has 2 things St. John’s resume does not: a Q1 road win and 2 wins over likely NCAAT teams. On the flip side, St. John’s has not taken a loss as bad as Colorado, and UConn has 2 losses roughly equivalent to SJU’s Georgia loss.

   Prediction: 20-11 (13-7) - NCAAT

4. Xavier - WAB 61, KPI 70, SOR 63 - I believe my thoughts on Xavier this season were well known. I thought they were overhyped all off-season. My concern broadly stated was that here were no sure things on the roster other than Ryan Conwell and Dayvion McKnight. Freemantle was coming off a long injury layoff. Jerome Hunter is a nice rotation piece at his best, but has never been an elite player. Guys like Marcus Foster and Dante Maddox might not translate to the next level. Once Lassina Traore—a guy who already had a question mark of translating up in my book—went down with injury it left a gaping hole in the front court. John Hugley IV was not that productive last season, no where near his best season 3 years ago at Pitt, and he is coming off an injury, and when he’s health come Big East play he is going to have his hands full guarding Big East big men, let alone being productive on the offensive end. So where is X now? Well I think roughly the same place. I was 100% right re: Foster and Maddox, neither of whom have scored anywhere close to the levels they did previously, Hugley is still recovering, so score that one incomplete. The only spot I was wrong was regarding Freemantle. He’s looked great coming off the injury layoff.

   Prediction: 22-9 (13-7) - NCAAT

5. Creighton - WAB 71, KPI 62, SOR 66 - Creighton came into the year firmly entrenched in the Big East’s elite troika. Now they’ve got a battle just to make the NCAAT. Like so many, Creighton opened the year playing cupcakes, and after a brief struggle with UTRGV before winning by 13, Creighton was doing what Creighton does. Then Nebrasketball came to Omaha and broke the Blue Jays, winning 74-63. An optimist would would have written this off as an anomaly. A mediocre team getting hyped up as can be for a rivalry game versus a better opponent, who already had their eyes set on Las Vegas and a stacked field for the Players Era Tournament. Don’t worry, they’ll recover in Vegas. WRONG! Creighton opened the Players Era with a blow out loss to SDSU, and following that up with a narrow loss versus Texas A&M. The Blue Jays rounded out the trip beating a better-than-expected Notre Dame team 80-76. Notre Dame proved to be the get right game the Blue Jays needed, knocking off no. 1 Kansas 76-63 at home in their next tilt, and backing it up with a home romp over UNLV. Unfortunately for Creighton, Pop Isaacs was lost for the season to injury during the Kansas game, leaving a gaping hole on the offensive end right when it seemed Creighton had figured it out. In the UNLV game fellow transfer Jamiya Neal contributing in a big way, posting 19 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists and 4 blocks. Neal has looked fantastic for the Blue Jays in 2 of the last 3 games, but he struggled versus Kansas, SDSU and Texas A&M. Neal wasn’t the only one to step up. Sophomore Jasen Green contributed 12 points in 23 minutes and Isaac Traudt added 15 in 28 minutes. Ashworth added 17 and 8 assists. So where does all that leave us with Creighton? Well there’s 2 major question marks: 1) what does this starting lineup look like? Jackson McAndrew and Mason Miller both started versus UNLV but only got 11 & 12 minutes respectively. Green and Traudt came off the bench and played 23 & 28 respectively, to great success. Do they get the starts moving forward? 2) related, but depth could become an issue. Only 4 players on Creighton average 18 or more minutes per game, and one of them is Pop Isaacs. While it’s nice that Green and Traudt stepped up in a big way, is that sustainable? And even if it is, who is providing anything off the bench? Miller or McAndrew or King needs to find his footing as well. If Creighton answers these questions positively, it will easily be an NCAAT team. Saturday’s game against a much-better-than-UNLV Alabama team will be very telling. If things go sideways this season from a depth and offensive production standpoint, fans in Omaha could be in line for one of their worst seasons ever. I am choosing to trust McD’s coaching and the plantation culture to win out.

   Prediction: 19-12 (12-8) - NCAAT

   PRETENDERS

6. DePaul - WAB 98, KPI 145, SOR 91 - When DePaul is shooting well it can beat almost anyone. When it’s not…it gets smoked by Texas Tech and loses a squeaker at home in overtime to PC. I look for the ‘mons to be better than they’ve shown thus far, but probably still fall just short of the NCAAT.

   Prediction: 20-11 (10-10) - Bubble(FFO)/NIT Autobid

7. Butler - WAB 76, KPI 51, SOR 74 What a roller coaster it has been for the Bulldogs. They opened with a victory over Missouri State that was way too close for comfort, before dropping a buy game to Torvik no. 248, Austin Peay. The epitome of brutality. They then proceeded to beat SMU at home by 11, and beat Northwestern in the Arizona Tip-Off MTE by 2, and the Austin Peay loss was a distant memory by the time they played Mississippi State in the Arizona Tip-Off final, a game that saw Butler swing the upset 87-77. Since then Butler got smoked by Houston in Houston, and dropped a second buy game, this time to NDSU. Would the real Butler please stand up? Would I be surprised by any outcome for this team? Probably not. Could be anywhere from a tournament team to nothing. Part of the problem is that Butler is built on wing play. It lacks a front court or a back court. Having Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks playing in between Kolby King or Finley Bizjack at the point and Andre Screen at the 5 is like have caviar sandwiched between 2 harden dog turd crackers, a thing I just made up for this analogy. Ultimately, I just can’t bring myself to buy a team that lacks at the 2 most important and stabilizing positions.

   Prediction: 16-15 (9-11) - NIT Autobid

8. Providence - Providence just doesn’t look like it has the horses this season. You lost Devin Carter and replaced him with Bensley Joseph. You lost healthy Bryce Hopkins and replaced him with still-not-100%recovering Bryce Hopkins. You replaced Josh Oduro with Christ Essandoko. That is not a recipe for success. The one thing that hasn’t changed? The Dunk is still the most electric atmosphere in the conference, and the most slept-on atmosphere in the whole country. That will always create a floor for Providence that’s fairly high.

   Prediction: 16-15 (9-11) NIT at-large

9. Villanova - I’m not buying the renaissance. I still don’t trust Kyle Neptune as head coach, winning streak be damned. This roster is less talented than last year’s, so why would we expect better results? The lone bright spot for ‘nova: Eric Dixon is playing at a National Player of the Year level, but unfortunately is unlikely to win given how bad ‘nova is.

   Prediction: 11-20 (4-16); early start on the portal

10. Georgetown - Much improved, but there is only so much Ed Cooley can do. Literally. He’s an above average coach, at best.

    Prediction: 12-18 (4-16); early start on the portal

    LOLOLOLOL

11. Seton Hall - Sha is a great coach. That’s about the only nice thing you can say about Seton Hall. This year’s Seton Hall team epitomizes the old saw that sometimes, it’s not about the Xs & Os, but the Jimmies and the Joes. There’s only so many times Sha can do more with less, and as it turns out, this is the team that is too less. Unless Hall gets its NIL in order, if I were Sha, I’d start exploring my exit options while people are still giving him the benefit of the doubt on the issue.

    Prediction: 8-23 (3-17)

METRICS 101 AND A METRICS MANIFESTO

METRICS! METRICS! METRICS! Seems to be all anyone has talked about the last couple of seasons. Whose metrics are good? Whose are bad? Why are they that way? Why did team X with shitty metrics get in, while team Y with great metrics got sent to the NIT? I am really, really far from an expert. In fact, I would bet I have made some errors below or assumed too much. If you think I’ve made a mistake, hit me up on Twitter @frankingeneral or frank@onhighhoops.com. In any event, I will use my lay knowledge of metrics to attempt to answer most of the questions I laid out above.

THE MAJOR TYPES OF BASKETBALL TEAM METRICS

Efficiency Metrics

When we talk about team metrics in college basketball we are dealing with 2 main types: efficiency metrics and resume-based metrics. Broadly speaking, efficiency metrics measure how many points you score per 100 possessions versus how many points you give up per 100 possessions. Leaving you with an offensive efficiency number, a defensive efficiency number and a net efficiency by subtracting defensive efficiency from offensive efficiency. This is purely a statistical measure. You calculate the number of possessions in a game—since there’s no stat for possessions a formula has been created—and you take the actual points you scored or surrendered across those possessions, and extrapolate to 100 possessions. There is a small component of the possessions formula—the factor applied to FT attempts—that makes this portion slightly different from metric to metric.

The two major efficiency metrics—KenPom and Bart Torvik—both apply an adjustment based on the efficiency of the opponent: i.e. if you play the 300th most efficient offense and hold them to 50 points, no one is going to be impressed. So the metrics gurus account for that with their adjustments, which are generally proprietary portions of the efficiency formula. This is likely where the largest divergence is seen among efficiency metrics.

Generally, efficiency metrics do not care about wins and losses, they strictly care about efficiency as a means of predicting future success. It makes sense: the more you score and the less your opponents score the more games you are going to win moving forward. Further, when you have offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, you can calculate a projected score, something both Torvik and KenPom do. Efficiency is how Vegas calculates line, and it’s how a lot of sharp bettors make their picks. I have not tried it, but if you just tracked KenPom’s lines and bet every time there was a 2+ point gap between KenPom and the Vegas line you’d probably do ok.

There is a 3rd relevant efficiency metric and that is ESPN’s BPI. Functions generally the same, with the notable addition of a controversial altitude adjustment. While it would seem to make sense to apply such an adjustment—altitude is a huge advantage for the home team—based on research by a twitter user last season, the BPI’s altitude adjustment is far too harsh, and overly penalizes teams playing at altitude. This issue also taints ESPN’s resume-based metric, SOR, discussed below. When looking at BPI or SOR, it is important to keep in mind the altitude penalty.

Generally speaking, efficiency metrics respond best to blowout road wins. Emphasis on “road” and “blowout,” but they also consider strength of opponent. It just seems that too many teams are able to goose their efficiency metrics by blowing out bad teams. Some efficiency metrics—Torvik and non-team sheet metric Haslemetrics—attempt to overcome this issue by ignoring garbage time, or what Eric Haslem refers to as a game going “analytically final.” Meaning for all intents and purposes the game is over, and anything occurring after that point will not be counted metrically. KenPom, to my knowledge, contains no such guardrail.

Results-Based Metrics

On the flip side we have the results-based metrics, also called resume metrics. These consist of ESPN’s Strength of Record (“SOR”), the Kevin Pauga Index (“KPI”) and new for 2025 Wins Above Bubble (“WAB”). These are not meant to predict the future, but to simply evaluate each team’s resume in an objective way. Each functions slightly different, and all function behind a layer of opacity, but I will endeavor to describe them the best I can.

KPI—a metric I have tweeted about endlessly—is a deeply flawed resume metric. It takes into account the opponent’s winning percentage, opponent’s strength of schedule, scoring margin, pace of game, location, and opponent’s KPI ranking. However, if you follow me at all or have spent any time digging through KPI results, you know that the opponents KPI ranking and opponents SOS are much, much smaller components than opponents’ winning percentage. Using those components, KPI awards each game a score from 1.0 to -1.0, with wins scoring 0.0 to 1.0 and losses scoring 0.0 to -1.0. Those scores are ultimately averaged to determine the team’s KPI score.

SOR, per ESPN’s website, considers “opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.” Do with that information what you will. My belief/educated guess is that “opponent strength” is measured by ESPN’s own BPI, another efficiency metric. The “day’s rest” and “travel distance” components are certainly unique to SOR, but definitely make sense. If a team traveled across country for a game—especially in the national conferences era—that should be accounted for. If a team is playing, oh I don’t know it’s 3rd game in 4 days at 11:00am on a Sunday, a results metric should account for that.

Finally, the best results-based metric: Wins Above Bubble—WAB. As the name implies, WAB is attempting to calculate how many more games you’ve won than the average bubble team (usually the 45th ranked team) would have won versus the same schedule. Bart Torvik has calculated WAB for years on his site, but the NCAA has set their own formula for WAB based on NET (whereas Bart’s is based on his own efficiency rankings). But as Torvik (and KenPom for that matter) and NET converge later in the season, when more data is available, the WAB metrics should be fairly similar as well. In essence, for WAB, every game is scored -1 to 1, and those scores are cumulative, so all 31 WAB game scores get added up to come to a final number. The score for each game is basically 1.0 for a win or -1.0 for a loss, minus or plus the probability (calculated by efficiency) that the average bubble team would win that game. So if an average bubble team has a 70% chance to win and a 30% chance to lose, if your team wins that game it is +0.3 WAB and if you lose that game it’s -0.7 WAB.

For results-metrics, the best results vary by metric. For SOR and WAB beating good teams is the key. For KPI the key is to beat teams that will win a lot of games. Frequently that is high quality teams, but a lot of lower conference powerhouses win a lot of games, and can be used to help goose one’s KPI when scheduling. In other words, if you’re a high major and your goal is to maximize your KPI rating, you want to beat a lot of mid- and low-major opponents that will win a ton of games in their conference.

What About NET?!

What about it? It’s by far the most talked about metric owing to its status as the NCAA’s own proprietary metric. It is also the most misunderstood. At its most basic, the NET is a hybrid efficiency and results metric. However, in a sign that NET either hews closer to efficiency or provides evidence for the predictive ability of efficiency, Torvik, KenPom and NET rankings all tend to converge by the end of the season with some differences.

One of the biggest myths in metrics is that the NET “ranking” is an actual ranking. Meaning people persist in their belief that the number 1 NET team is the 1 number 1 team in the country and the number 100 NET team is the 100th best team in the country. Or at least most people think the committee is supposed to think that way. That’s why people frequently wonder “how did team A get into the tournament/get left out of the tournament their NET is X.” So whenever this blog refers to a NET “ranking” picture it in scare quotes.

The NET was never intended to be a ranking tool. That is simply not the case, and it never has been. If the NET was a ranking tool you could dispense with the committee and just run down the NET to fill out the bracket. The NET is a ranking tool as the committee likes to call it. It is used to place Ws and Ls into quadrants for subjective record evaluation, and it is now used as the backbone of the NCAA’s proprietary WAB formula.

It’s very easy for people to criticize and write-off the NET as irrelevant. The NET is simply an easy target. It is owned and released by the NCAA and as the NCAA’s own metric, it is the most high profile metric—although perhaps KenPom gives it a run for its money—which means it’s frequently cited by bracketologists, analysts, coaches, fans, etc. as a measure of how good a team is. While the NET certainly attempts to do that, it was never meant to be precise, or to rank the teams in an order that corresponds to their resumes—that’s why it has a predictive efficiency component as well as a results component.

METRICS MANIFESTO

So how does one use all of these team sheet metrics to effectively discuss teams? It’s pretty simple. When discussing the quality of a W or L, refer to NET,  and the quads setup thereunder, which is what the committee does. When evaluating bids to the big dance, use the 3 resume metrics. If you want to evaluate possible bets or what the seeding might look like or which teams have the highest chance of success in the dance, look to an efficiency metric.

Following the snubs of Seton Hall, St. John’s and Providence last season I spent untold hours crunching numbers and trying to figure out what made the committee tick. As part of that, I ran a correlation function between each metric (the ones discussed above except Torvik, which was not on the team sheet, as well as “metrics” like Q1 win%, Q1&2 wins, and strength of schedule.

The most correlated metric was the “All Metrics Average” which included KenPom, BPI, NET, SOR, and KPI, with a .938 correlation, followed by an average of strictly resume metrics, which was .925 correlated. Of the individual metrics discussed herein, KPI had the highest correlation, .875, followed by the other resume metric on the team sheet last season, SOR, at .868 correlated. SOR’s correlation was likely harmed by how badly it undervalued most of the Mountain West teams that got in due to the altitude adjustment.

In other words, we need to shift the way we discuss metrics, tournament bids, bubble teams, etc. The focus is always NET and KenPom, and this year Torvik will slot in beside KenPom as the 2nd most-talked-about efficiency metric. Instead, bracketologists, bubble watchers, coaches and the like need to focus on the resume-based metrics for bids, and then the efficiency-based metrics for seeding.

I pledge to do my part. When discussing a team’s tournament prospects, I will focus predominantly on the resume-based metrics. When I discuss seeding or gambling, I will focus on efficiency metrics.

BIG EAST TWITTERATI POLL - WEEK 4 RESULTS

His shenanigans aren’t really shenanigans at all. Don’t be a Farva.

We got some very interesting results to breakdown this week. This was the first week I threw it out on the main timeline, and I would say it is the most successful to date. No shenanigans, and an excellent sample size and fan base breakdown. For the foreseeable future, we’ll continue to keep the poll open to the public. I trust no one will spam it or engage in other forms of shenanigans.

As noted elsewhere around these parts, this is the start of a big week for the Big East, with 11 HUGE Big12 Battle games on tap, as well as some other action around the league. The Big East had 20 opportunities left to make an impact in out-of-conference play. These votes came in on Monday, but since then the league has scored two HUGE victories in the opening two games of the Big12 Big East Battle, as ‘nova defeated Cincinnati—the latter now on Fraud Watch—68-60, a score that feels closer than the game ever was, and Providence, bolstered by 16/5/4 from Bryce Hopkins, who went 3-6 from the field and 10-12 at the line, and Jabri Abdur-Rahim—averaging just 6.5 points off the bench prior to last night—posted a season high of 21, adding 5 boards off the bench.

Clearly these results are not factored in, but felt it was worth mentioning given the lag and results between voting and this publication. Without further ado, here’s this week’s Big East Twitterati Power Poll:

1. Marquette (32) - 348

2. Butler - 292

3. UConn (1) - 288

4. Creighton (1) - 275

5. St. John’s (5) - 260

6. Xavier - 258

7. DePaul (1) - 252

8. Georgetown (3) - 153

9. Providence - 123

10. Villanova - 121

11. Seton Hall - 50

Marquette maintains its grasp on first place, getting 13/18 last week, getting 32/36 possible (44 responses minus 8 Marquette voters) this week. No surprises there.

The BIG surprise of the week is the Butler Bulldogs, bouncing up to No. 2 all the way from 8th on the backs of an Arizona Tip-Off championship that saw them beat Northwestern by 2, and dominate a quality Mississippi State team 87-77. Voters did not really reward the Bulldogs last week for their win over SMU, but have rewarded them this week. The upset lose to Austin Peay now a distant memory, the Bulldogs once again in position to make a charge for an NCAAT berth.

Beyond that, the voters STILL believe in UConn and Creighton, as they each got 1 first place vote (from a Marquette fan who couldn’t vote his own team), and enough points to land 4th and 5th respectively, narrowly edging out St. John’s despite the Johnnies receiving the 2nd most 1st place votes. In fact, the Johnnies were the biggest drop of the week, falling 2 spots from 3rd to 5th.

The other interesting note, we’re starting to see some striation occurring based on the points. Clear tiers have emerged:

Tier 1 - Marquette
Tier 2 - Butler, UConn, Creighton, St. John’s, Xavier and DePaul
Tier 3 - Georgetown, Providence and Villanova
Tier 4 - Seton Hall

Will be interesting to see how this shakes out next week with Providence and Villanova already garnering big wins this week.

Player of the Week

This week’s winner, going back-to-back in our Player of the Week voting:

Kameron Jones (12/45 votes)

Kameron Jones just continues to produce, it’s that simple. Sure Stonehill and Western Carolina aren’t exactly a murder’s row scheduling-wise, but Kam showed out nonetheless posting 17 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists per game. He shot 50% from deep, 80% from 2, for a 78.6% eFG.

Others receiving Votes: Jahmyl Telfort (11), RJ Luis (8), Conor Enright (2), Micah Peavy (2), Ryan Mela (2), Bryce Hopkins (1 - amazing, he hadn’t even played yet), I dunno man (1), Jacob Meyer (1), Jerome Hunter (1), None, everyone sucked (1), Thomas Sorber (1)

Fan Pulse

Let’s check-in with the fan bases and see how they feel about their respective teams:

1. Marquette - 9.3

2. Georgetown - 7.5

3. DePaul - 7.3

4. Seton Hall - 7.3

5. Butler - 7.0

6. St. John’s - 5.8

7. Xavier - 5.2

8. UConn - 5.0

9. Creighton - 4.0

10. Providence - 3.3

11. Villanova - 3.0

I guess Hall fans don’t want me to see them be realistic about their team, with 2 fans stating their “fan pulse” as a 10/10, and the only smart Hall fan a more realistic 2/10. Georgetown fans have always been irrationally confident in this era in the nation’s capital, even if it comes off as mildly delusional. DePaul and Marquette fans also in the top-3, both rightfully enjoying their teams’ performances to date.

That’s all for this week. Keeping the poll public for the time being, so keep on eye out for the next poll form on Sunday or Monday!

Previewing the Last Big East-Big12 Challenge

Put up or shut up time for the Big East

I’m simultaneously irrationally excited about this edition of the Big East-Big12 Challenge, but also massively disappointed. The Big12 has decided it has no use for us anymore, I suppose the conference as a whole is of the same mind as Jerome Tang, who infamously said last year that his team gains nothing from playing the Big East. It’s not tough to see why: in 6 attempts last year vs. high majors KSU was just 3-3, with none of the wins coming against NCAAT teams (PC, ‘nova & LSU), and 2 losses coming to non-NCAAT teams as well (USC & Miami).

In other words, Jerome Tang, and the Big12, LOOOOOOOOOVVVVVEEEE them some cupcakes. It’s not just Tang, the entire Big12 loves to feast on some cupcakes, playing almost as many games against power conference opponents—52—as against competition 250 or below in KenPom—50. TCU (242), Iowa State (245), Cincinnati (308), BYU (315), Texas Tech (335), Kansas St. (342) and Utah (364) each have sub-240 KenPom OOC SOS. That group includes 3 of the top-6 (ISU, Cincy & TTU) teams in the league, 4 others with legitimate tournament expectations. Completely shameless.

Cupcake city. And yet, in games to date the Big12 is 2-0 versus the Big East:

New Big12 logo courtesy of Gemini AI.

Colo. v. UConn, 73-72 (N)
Baylor v. SJU, 99-98 (2OT)(N)

On paper, one matchup favored the Big East (Colo. v. UConn), and one was evenly matched (BU v. SJU), so the Big East should be 1-1 at worst in this incredibly small sample size.

Meanwhile, the Big East has not been not very good going 10-9 versus the other 4 power conferences. The results are not much better against what I will call the “Next 4",” i.e. the 4 top mid-major conferences: A10, AAC, MWC and WCC, going 5-5 versus teams in those conferences, and one of the wins is DePaul’s home win against A10 bottom-feeder Duquesne.

Needless to say, the Big East has some serious work remaining in out-of-conference play—which will shortly be a blog post of its own—but for now, suffice to say this final Big12 Challenge could be the most important to date for the Big East. So with that background, let’s preview the games:

Tuesday, December 3

Cincy at Villanova - on paper, a massive mismatch. Cincinnati comes 6-0, sitting 9th in KenPom. But a deeper dive into their resume indicates the record can be misleading, with their best win coming on the road at KP# 106, Georgia Tech. They have not played a single other opponent inside KenPom’s top-200 to date.

Despite Cincy is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, clocking in at 41.5%, good for 9th per KenPom. Villanova is also no slouch behind the arc, making 38.6% of its 3-pointers, good for 27th in the country per KenPom. To this point in the season, ‘nova has been more reliant on the 3, taking 46% of their FGA from behind the arc, compared to 37.7% for Cincy. Additionally, Cincy’s 3-point defense is 11th in the country per KenPom, allowing opponents to shoot a stingy 25.2% (obviously SOS has something to do with this). However, they haven’t faced an opponent that can shoot like ‘nova can. On the flip side, ‘nova’s defense has not been good, clocking in at 106th in Adj.D. per KenPom, and it only gets worse when you scroll down and see that they’re 288th in the country in 3-point defense, allowing 35.9% shooting from deep. Cincy also shoots elite from 2, scoring 60.9% of its baskets, combined with the 3-point shooting it makes for the 24th best offense in America, and the #1 eFG % in the country, 61.4%.

The only chance ‘nova has is if: A) Cincy are complete frauds that have feasted on cupcakes (metrics seem to indicate that is not the case); B) ‘nova shoots the lights out and Cincy struggles in the friendly confines of the Finn, which can be a tough gym to shoot it I’d imagine, given the unique roof lines and backdrops. Nova also needs to play aggressive defense. Cincy takes care of the ball (33rd in TO%), but they cannot hit foul shots to save their lives—Cincy is 352nd of 364 teams in FT%, shooting just 59.38% from the stripe. Does ‘nova have the depth to waste a lot of fouls this way? To play a hack-a-Bearcat defense? Probably not…but freshman Josiah Moseley and seniors Enoch Boakye and Nnanna Njoku are all low production front-court players who have 5 fouls each, so that’s 15 right there. Would love to see this deployed in the 2nd half. St. John’s legend Dillon Mitchell is a prime front court candidate for the hack-a-Bearcat strategy, as he’s shooting just 6.7% from the stripe (not a typo), going 1-15. Contributors Jizzle James (57.1%), Tyler Betsey (33.3%) also all shoot sub-60%, albeit in smaller sample sizes.

Prediction: BearWildcats in a romp, 78-61

Result: As predicted, a Wildcats romp. HUGE win for Villanova. I’m not saying they’re back in NCAAT contention just yet, but it’s a step in the right direction. It’s also big for the league, as it will help ‘nova metrically.

BYU at PC - The BYU Soakers make their first ever-trip to The Dunk, where I am certain the PC fans will give them a nice, friendly east-coast-Catholic welcome. While I’m trying to be funny, it raises the very real truth: The Dunk is an incredibly difficult place to play, and one of the greatest home court advantages in all of college basketball. Certainly the most under-the-radar home court advantage.

But home court can only carry you so far. One of the biggest keys here will be Bryce Hopkins’ health. It’s been a roller coaster of emotions for PC fans. He’s been cleared, but did not play in The Bahamas amid rumors of discord between the staff/training staff and Hopkins’ camp about his readiness. This morning it was reported he has a chance to play tonight. Whether this is a legitimate possibility or the staff leaking info to attempt to apply public pressure on Hopkins is anyone’s guess. Even if Hopkins comes back, what can fans realistically expect from a player who has not played in almost a year, is coming off an ACL tear, and seems, at best, to be hesitant about playing at this juncture.

This also starts a crucial stretch for PC. Coming off 3-straight losses in The Bahamas, PC would love to run off 3 straight quality wins to close out their OOC slate: v. BYU, @ Rhode Island, v. St. Bonaventure (N). 3 wins in this last OOC stretch their could salvage the season. In between those games is also a newly-tricky trip to the Second City to face the friskiest DePaul team in a generation. Certainly a game not to be overlooked.

On the court, BYU comes in battle-tested, losing to KP # 41 Ole Miss in overtime, before beating NC State 72-61, both games in the Rady Children’s Invitational in San Diego last weekend. This game will be won or lost on the glass. Both teams are top-25 in the country in offensive rebound rate, and top-10 in the country in defensive rebound rate. SOMETHING has to give. If Hopkins is back and contributing at even 70% of his old self, that could be the difference on the glass. In The Bahamas PC rebounded well, pulling down 30.7 RPG, 10 of them offensive versus their opponents 28 & 4.3. At the Rady Invitational, BYU pulled down 38, with 12 being offensive to their opponents 30.5 & 7.5. BYU plays significantly faster, so it’s not surprising a raw average would favor them, but the rebounding rates are very close. (38.4 BYU v. 37.8 PC in OR rate and 19.0 v. 21.7 DR rate).

And about that tempo…that will be another key. PC does not have the horses to get into a track meet with BYU. PC struggled with Indiana’s pace at Atlantis, and looked better in the defeats to Oklahoma and Davidson, both of whom play slower. PC is 331/362 in tempo, and while BYU isn’t anyone’s idea of fast, they play 4 possessions per game faster than PC, good for 119th in America. Whichever team imposes their tempo is going to have a big advantage.

Prediction: Logic is telling me that BYU should win this one, but I envision a tight game. And in a tight game, The Dunk Mystique could be the deciding factor. Add in the fact that Bryce Hopkins might return tonight—which would provide a huge boost on the court, but also for the fans in attendance—I have to lean PC in a close one, 67-63.

Results: Well I was dead wrong. It wasn’t a tight game at all. But it was a PC victory. Hopkins answered the bell in a big way, pouring in 16 points, 10 of which came at the stripe.

Wednesday, December 4

Baylor at UConn - Baylor has been a mixed-bag so far this year, getting absolutely smoked by Gonzaga and Tennessee, but racking up quality wins over Arkansas—although Cal’s team may be fraudulent, they’re certainly on fraud watch—and my own Johnnies. The metrics are not as high on Baylor as the general public and the AP voters, as Torvik has the Bears at just 39th when you remove the preseason projections from the equation. NET, which factors in results alongside efficiency, likes the Bears a little better, slotting them in at 23.

UConn is coming off a blowout win over University of Maryland-Eastern Shore…a competitive matchup no doubt, which came on the heels of a bad performance in Maui, with UConn losing to Memphis and Colorado in by 2 points and 1 point, respectively, before getting their doors blown off by Dayton 85-67. Throughout the trip the Huskies looked unable to defend at the level we’ve come to expect from Hurley teams, posting a 131.5 defensive efficiency rating in Maui. UConn’s defense has traditionally relied on elite individual defenders, backed-up by an elite defense center (Sanogo & Clingan). UConn simply does not have that this year. Mahaney is a liability defensively and Memphis picked on him repeatedly. Samson Johnson and Taris Reed simply cannot defend and rim-protect at the same level as Sanogo and Clingan. McNeely is a freshmen and plays defense like one. As great as he is offensively, Karaban is a mediocre defender.

Underscoring these defensive woes is foul trouble. In Maui UConn committed 24 personal fouls per game, conceding 32.7 FTAs per game for their opponents. The defense was also abysmal behind the arc, where UConn let its Maui opponents shoot 52.7% from deep on 18.3 3PAs per game. Do I believe Dan Hurley can figure something out and right the ship? Of course, it’d be silly to doubt him, but as I heard on a national college basketball podcast recently, while coaching is important, you also need to have “the Joes,” and at the moment too many UConn doesn’t seem to have enough Joes to play to its expected level.

Gampel Pavilion provides a pretty strong home court advantage. UConn has won 29 of its last 30 games at Gampel. That streak can be a little misleading since some bigger games tend to get moved to Hartford, and UConn plays most of its marquee OOC opponents at neutral sites or in MTEs. Nonetheless, I expect it to be a raucous crowd in attendance that will attempt to rattle the visiting Bears.

While Gampel makes UConn’s task easier, it is impossible to preview this game without noting that Alex Karaban will be missing his 2nd straight game with a concussion sustained in the last game in Maui. In his absence, freshman Liam McNeeley and sophomore Jaylin Stewart will be asked to pick up the slack on the wing, while Solo Ball and Hassan Diarra will face more pressure to run the offense to get quality looks in the absence of Karaban’s shooting. It’s a tall ask for a team that felt under-manned to begin the season.

Baylor feels perfectly positioned to exploit UConn’s issues, shooting 38.1% from deep, good for 48th in the country, and takes 28 3PA per game (56th in country). While Johnnies Legend Norchad Omier has shot very poorly from deep this season (18.2%), he’s posting his highest eFG (60.8%) since his sophomore year at Arkansas State (63.4%), buoyed by 85.2% shooting at the rim (under 4.5 feet) and 54.5% in the rest of the paint, where he attempts most of his shots—44.6% of his attempts. Combined at the rim and in-the-paint accounts for 81.1% of his shot attempts, and most of his 15.9 points per game. He’s also a walking double-double, averaging 10.4 boards this season. It will be imperative for UConn to keep him out of the lane. Without Karaban, this will be particularly tough. The matchups just don’t favor UConn, as it will be Samson or Reed on Baylor’s center, leaving McNeely or Stewart on Omier? Give me the wily vet in that matchup.

Prediction: Danny Hurley has had a week and a game to figure out his defense, and find a way to win without Karaban? If any one can do it, it’s Danny Hurley. Unfortunately, this Baylor team has too much talent in my opinion. They continue to get better as new pieces start to gel more efficiently. Give me Baylor by 5, 70-65

Result: Danny Hurley found a way to get it done without Karaban, winning 76-72. Baylor was without Edgecombe, and Roach was limited to 23 minutes after suffering a concussion. Celestine fouled out with 7:23 on the clock. But none of that detracts from a job well-done by UConn. They had a job to do without their star, who is worth far more to this team than Roach or Edgecombe or Celestine are to Baylor. Maybe more than the latter 2 combined. And early, it looked like maybe missing Karaban would be too much, as UConn struggled early and Baylor jumped out to a 19-8 lead. But UConn battled back, led by freshmen Liam McNeeley’s 17 points, 8 assists, 3 blocks, and Diarra’s 7 assists. Even Aidan Mahaney contributed in a big way, going 3-4 from deep for 9 points in just 18 minutes. All-in-all an impressive performance from the Huskies.

Marquette at Iowa St. - What a juicy matchup. The clear bannerman of the Big East through the first month—Marquette—travels to Ames to face Iowa State. Undefeated Marquette riding on a nation-high 8-game win-streak. These teams are similar in a lot of ways. Both teams like to play fast on offense, while stifling teams into long possessions on the defensive end. Marquette’s average offensive possession lasts 15 seconds (12), while Iowa St.’s lasts 15.2 (21), and on the flip side Marquette’s defensive possessions last 18.4 (330th) seconds on average and ISU’s 18.9 (355th). Both teams play in your face, aggressive styles of defense, and are elite at turning teams over, with Marquette sporting a 25.2% TO rate, good for 3rd nationally and ISU gets turnovers on 23.6% of their defensive possessions, good for 9th nationally. Marquette also ranks number 1 in Steal % per KenPom. Steals are critical to what  Neither have elite front courts, but ISU has been the better rebounding team to date, with the caveat that they’ve played a softer schedule.

Both teams are mediocre shooting the 3-ball, with Marquette ranking 140th, at 34% and ISU rankings 158th at 33.6%. Marquette likes to play much more behind the ark though, taking 47.7% of its attempts from deep, versus just 25.3 for ISU. ISU makes up for its lack of 3’s by getting into the lane for easy buckets, rankings first in 2-pt FG% at 61.1. That inside attack is keyed by Keshon Gilbert, a player who fearlessly drives to the rim without concern for his own safety. I watched a game this year, either the Auburn or Dayton game in Maui, where Gilbert got whacked in the nose, appeared to be out cold for a second, gets up after a minute on the ground. Drills the 2 FTs, made a great play to get the defensive stop, and took the ball hard to the rim again the very next offensive possession. Marquette’s guards, undoubtedly the strength of this roster, will have their hands full keeping Gilbert out of the lane. Ben Gold will also have his hands full on the inside with Dishon Jackson. The key here will be defending without fouling, bring the help on the other side to try to force TOs—although Jackson is pretty strong with the ball in his hands—or force him to kick it out. The only 2 real threats out there are Milan Momcilovic (sounds like a Serbian war criminal) and Curtis Jones, shooting 47.1% and 40%, respectively. The rest of the team has shot 25% or worse from deep this year.

Ultimately, the way to beat Marquette is with elite interior play. Does Dishon Jackson rise to the occasion in his first year in Ames? To date he’s played good, not great. The bigs that gave Marquette trouble last year, when they had a much better center in Oso Ighodaro, were Edey, Kalkbrenner, & Clingan. This year they struggled to contain Derik Queen, but won anyway. They struggled to contain Georgia’s freshman sensation Asa Newell, but won anyway. For my money, Edey, Kalk & Clingan are all light years better than Jackson, while Jackson is—at best—as good as Queen and Newell, as both are still freshmen. The other important distinction…the 5 guys I mentioned are/were the primary scorers for their respective sides. Jackson is not. Asking him to step here as a scorer may be more than he can handle.

Prediction: This one is too tight to call. I like Marquette to keep it close and cover the spread, but it’s way too close to call who wins. The teams are basically mirror images of each other. Ames can be a tough place to play, and Shaka’s Marquette teams historically have been weaker on the road. But Marquette has already been tested on the road at Maryland, and the beauty of the continuity of Shaka’s approach is that these guys have seen and played in big road games for Marquette before. The coaching matchup is pretty even for me, I think these are 2 of the top-20/25 coaches in the country, so no edges to be found there. Ultimately, I just don’t think Jackson gives Iowa State what it needs to win today. Marquette’s guards can definitely contain Iowa State’s guards enough to win. Regardless, this game should be fast-paced, up-and-down, and action-packed. By far the most anticipated matchup on the slate that doesn’t involve St. John’s. Give me the Golden Eagles, 88-87

Result: a little bit too optimistic here. Iowa State ran the Golden Eagles back to Milwaukee, 81-70. Gilbert feasted, posting 24 points and 7 assists, and got to the line a game-high 8 times. Joshua Jefferson tortured Marquette inside, posting 15 points and 11 boards on 7-9 shooting from 2-point range. Dishon Jackson also played efficiently, but Marquette more effectively denied him the ball. Jackson had 11 points on 4-5 shooting, adding 7 boards and 2 blocks.

Kansas at Creighton - Spread seems artificially low here. Creighton has struggled to date, and even though they are at home, you have No. 1 in the country Kansas only laying 4.5 to the Blue Jays? Color me shocked. But wait! Creighton has one of the best defensive bigs in the country to attempt to neutralize Dickinson. The drop coverage can also help neutralize some of the guard play of Mayo & Harris. Interesting viewing note for my Johnnies friends, AJ Storr has been lightly used in Lawrence to date. But the last time he played in Omaha he dropped 23 points on 56.3% from the field and 60% from deep. Something about that drop coverage must suit his eye. The other problem for the Jays: Kansas is elite at nailing the mid-range 2, ranking in the 92nd percentile in mid-range 2 FG%, at 46.0%. The mid-range game is the surest bet against the Jays, as that’s the exploit left by the drop coverage.

Prediction: Kansas in a rout as things get worse in Omaha before they get better. AJ Storr has a monster game, and Kansas drills the mid-range to death and to victory. Kansas 75-61.

Result: Could not have been more wrong in this one. Creighton controlled this game beginning to end, but for a stretch where they couldn’t score wrapping around the half. That stretch saw Kansas pull to within 1, 42-41, before a Cockbrenner dunk, 2 Pop Isaacs 3-pointers, and an Ashworth FT promptly got the lead back to 10, 51-41. Kansas never got within 5 again, as Creighton kept them at arm’s length and pulled a way late thanks to their defense, closing out the Jayhawks 76-63. Ryan Cockbrenner was fantastic, playing 38 minutes and going for 17 and 10. Pop Isaacs was sublime, shooting 10-15, 6-9 from deep for 27 points, 7 boards and 4 assists. This is the version of Creighton most people expected.

DePaul at Texas Tech - It’s DePaul, what more do you need to know? (OK I just ran outta time today as I have had too much work to do).

Prediction: DePaul shoots the lights out in Lubbock and rides away to victory! 90-82

Result: TTU 76-62. Do I still believe in DePaul? Goddamn right I do. This just wasn’t there game. They didn’t shoot great (just 31.4% from deep, 42.1% from the field), and they lost the rebound and turnover battles 34-28 and 14-6, respectively. But the plucky Blue Demons showed plenty of heart. TTU jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, But the ‘mons battled back, tying the game on a Isaiah Rivera 3 shortly before the U8 timeout. A TTU buzzer beater at the half was all that separated DePaul from a lead in the locker room. Instead they trailed by 1. The 2nd half was all TTU, opening up a quick 9-pt lead, and never letting the ‘mons get closer than 6 points.

Is DePaul for real? As noted above, I believe they are. The metrics are still profiling like an bubble/NIT team. IF they wanna be on the right side of the bubble they best take care of business against their remaining 2 half-decent opponents: Wichita State and Northwestern. While neither team is great, they’re both respectable wins. The Northwestern game in particular, being on the road, is very important. The committee really values Q1 road wins, and as of now NWern qualifies. If NWern can win a couple games before that December 21st matchup, it’ll help solidfy them as a Q1 opponent on the road.

Thursday, December 5

Xavier at TCU - The only Battle game on the slate tonight, as 7-1 X heads to Fort Worth to face the Horned Frogs on the absolute worst basketball court in America. I’m glad I will be at a concert instead of getting vertigo watching this game on my television. Really though, I’m disappointed to be missing what should be a fun game between 2 teams that love to run. TCU scores 21.3% of its points on fast breaks, 97th percentile in America. Xavier scores 26.6% of its points on fast breaks, 100th percentile in America.

Both teams ignite those fast breaks with aggressive defense that turns the opposition offer, with TCU turning opponents over 15.6 times per game, good for 92nd percentile per CBB analytics. X also forces a fair amount of turnovers, 13.8 per game, good for 74th percentile. TCU averages 18 points off turnovers to Xavier’s 15.9. The difference here, TCU is abysmal at defending the fast break, giving up 15.3% of its opponents’ points on fast breaks, while Xavier’s defense concedes 13.1% of its opponents’ points on fast breaks. Advantage X.

That said, TCU’s offense tends to stagnate in the half-court due to its lack of playmakers at this level. That leaves the scoring pretty balanced, looking like:

Frankie Collins: 11.3
Trazerien White: 9.9
Vasean Allette: 9.7
Noah Reynolds: 9.7
Brendan Wenzel: 8.4
Udeh: 7.8

So pick your poison. They can beat you inside, with their guards or on the wings. Despite this balanced scoring attack, they’re a pretty poor shooting team, sporting just a 49.2% eFG (43rd percentile), and 32.1% from deep (41st percentile).

For X, the biggest key will be shooting from deep. They shoot a very good 38.7% from 3-pointland, god for 92nd percentile. That said, they do not shoot as many 3’s as you’d expect from such a good shooting team, just 47th percentile in 3PAs per game, 22.6 and 51st percentile in 3-point attempt rate. TCU allows a lot of 3 pointer attempts per game, 23.7 (40th percentile), but opponents shoot just 28.9% on those attempts (86th percentile).

The key for X will be finding a way to drain the opportunities they get from deep. Michigan, in beating TCU, shot 9-24 from deep (37.5%). TCU also really struggles to quality wings and larger guards, so guys like Freemantle, Swain, Hunter, and Conwell should have some good looks in this one.

Prediction: X is just the more-talented team, so after all that, no need to overthink it. But if you do overthink things, X is well-positioned to exploit TCU’s defense. Xavier 84-76

Result: Sometimes you should just stick with your gut instinct on a team. My gut instinct was always that this Xavier team was not very good, and that the transfers other than Conwell were simply not good enough. So far I’ve been proven right. Maddox has been a bust for the Musketeers, averaging just 4.7 points after posting 15.6 for Toledo a year ago. Marcus Foster has prove to be an asset defensively, but has not been productive offensively after averaging 17 points per game last season for Furman. John Hugley been a complete non-factor. Cam’Ron Fletcher can’t even get off the bench.  Mea culpa, I was wrong about the existing pieces. I didn’t think Freemantle and Hunter would come back at the same productivity levels. Other than poor 3-point shooting, Freemantle looks like the best version of himself, and Hunter was never a huge producer offensively, and he’s mostly slotted back into his role as a defender with limited offensive capabilities. Meanwhile Dailyn Swain has taken a bit of a sophomore leap, posting 8.4 ppg on 64%eFG, while grabbing 5 boards and 2.6 assists in 26.7 mpg.

However, without the expected production from the incoming transfers, particularly Maddox and Foster, this team will continue to struggle. That was on full display last night, as Conwell, Freemantle, and Swain went for 17, 16 & 12 respectively, with no one else breaking double digits, although Maddox posted an admirable 9 points on 3-4 shooting from deep. Xavier lost 72-76.

Friday, December 6

Georgetown v. WVU - Do I HAVE to preview this one?! lol. Fine. Sadly, this is one of the best games on a dead night of college basketball. These are two teams in rebuilding mode. WVU after Huggy Bear’s misdeeds off the court and Georgetown after…well Patrick Ewings (entirely less serious) misdeeds on the court. Year 2 on Cooley is off to a mixed start. Efficiency metrics do not love the Hoyas: Georgetown is 96 in Torvik if you remove the preseason projections. They surprisingly sport the 49th best defense (which is adjusted for opponent quality), but only the 200th best offense.

On defense the Hoyas generate a lot of turnovers, with 23.7% TO rate to date, 8th in the country per Torvik. West Virginia has not done a great job of protecting the ball, coming it with a 17.3% turnover rating, 158th in the country. On the flip side, WVU is a decent shooting team, posting 35% from behind the arc, which should help them exploit Georgetown’s anemic 3-point defense, which allows opponents to shoot 34.7% from deep, 237th in the country per KenPom.

On the flip side, Georgetown is going to have to get to the rim and pound the ball inside to Sorber. WVU’s defense is pretty-well balanced, with opponents shooting just 29.8% from deep, and only 44.4% from 2-pointland. Look for WVU to be patient, and slowly breakdown the Georgetown defense for a good look from deep. Despite its excellent defensive steal % (15.2, 3rd in the country), the GTown defense allows a lot of assists, ranking 286th in assist percentage, at 57.7 (286th in the country).

Georgetown also has a big rebounding edge. Georgetown’s offense rebounds the ball at 35.8% rate, good for 45th in the country, versus WVU allowing opponents an offensive rebound rate for 32.5%, 273rd in the country. The same holds true on the other end, where WVU is 228th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage versus 152nd for Georgetown’s defensive rebound %. WVU does not have a single player over 6’8” that averages more than 15 minutes. The only true center on the roster, Eduardo Andre—at 6’11”—only gets 14 mpg, averaging just 3.5 & 3.8. He will have his hands full if he draws the assignment of guarding Sorber for big minutes.

Prediction: Georgetown fans already hate me, so I have no qualms admitting that I came into this preview fully expecting to this to point me towards a WVU blowout. But I have actually talked myself into the idea that Georgetown could win this game. It will be a battle of who can impose their will. Neither team has shown any prowess in guarding the other’s strength. I like Sorber to feast, and if Georgetown can generate enough extra possessions with offensive rebounding and TOs, they just might win this thing. I’m  going to predict Georgetown to pull off the road upset, 78-77. From a betting perspective I LOVE the value on Georgetown +8.5, I’d hammer that. I also like the over 143.5, as you can tell by my score prediction. I accept no responsibility should these picks lose you money. 

CHECK BACK HERE LATER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIEWS!

BIG EAST TWITTER POLL - WEEK 3

Well, we missed week 2 while I was in The Bahamas watching SJU disappoint me, per usual, and we’re a day late (but not a dollar short) here in Week 3. However, it doesn’t look like the Twitter cognoscenti are as disappointed by the Johnnies, bumping them up a spot to 3.

Without further ado, here’s the results of the Week 3 Twitter Poll, as always parens indicate first place votes, after the hyphen is total points:

1. Marquette (13) - 175

2. UConn (5) - 140

3. St. John’s - 117

4. Creighton - 108

5. Xavier - 101

6. DePaul - 91

7. Providence - 78

8. Butler - 70

9. Seton Hall - 41

10. Georgetown - 35

11. Villanova - 34

A new number 1: Marquette Golden Eagles, who have looked red hot ever since I tweeted that they were frauds early in the CMU victory. Since then they went on the road to beat Maryland, came home and beat AP Poll #6 Purdue in dominant fashion—an 18-point victory—and went down to Atlantis for a one-off neutral site victory over Georgia, 80-69. You’re welcome Marquette fans.

Should be noted that these votes were cast before UConn’s loss to Memphis in their first real game of the season. Will be interesting to see how the voters react. Certainly a lot will depend on how the rest of UConn’s Maui trip goes.

Butler and Hall were the biggest climbers, jumping 2 spots each. Butler’s jump no doubt on the strength of their win over SMU at Hinkle. Hall on the strength of 2 top-100 KenPom wins over 42 VCU in OT and 93 FAU, games which sandwiched a lopsided loss to Vandy in the Charleston semis.

Nova & Georgetown each tumble 2 spots. For Georgetown it was the loss of the first real test and nothing else but 2 wins over the softest, moistest, most delicious cupcakes. Since the week 1 poll ‘nova has lost to St. Joe’s, a bad UVa team, and Maryland, with their lone win in that span coming at home vs. UPenn. At least they’re not going to finish 6th in the Big 5 this year!

Player of the (2) Week(s)

Kam Jones, duh!

This one was a no brainer, or as one voter (non-Marquette) put it in his responses:

Kam Jones, duh (10.5/18)

Since the week 1 poll Jones has averaged 16.8 ppg, including 2 in the W over Maryland, and 17 in the W over Purdue. He also dished out 6.5 apg and took down 5.8 bpg. He posted a triple double in that Purdue game, slashing 17/13/10, for what I understand to be the first triple-double in Marquette program history (a stat I find wild given the program’s illustrious history, and if that stat is not true, blame the Scrambled Eggs podcast, as I heard it there). He was also pretty efficient, shooting 55% from the field, and an eFG of 60.6%.

Others Receiving Votes:

Eric Dixon (3) - Poor Eric. I don’t usually comment on the “others” in the POY ballot, but had to comment here. Not sure what else he can do both for his team. He got my vote, going for 26.3/6.8/1.8 over the last 2 weeks, including an insane 38 point performance against Maryland. Unfortunately ‘nova has absolutely no help for him. And lest you think he’s just racking up volume, he was quite efficient as well, shooting 50% from deep, 49.4% from the field on 19.3 shots per game. a TS% of 63.1 and eFG of 59.7. Unfortunately for Eric, the voters have spoken, and winning matters in POTW voting!

Conor Enright (1), David Joplin (1), Luke Fonts (1), Zuby Ejiofor (0.5)

Fan Pulse

On a scale of 1-10, 10 being the best, here’s how our panel views their own teams:

UConn - 9

DePaul - 8

Xavier - 7.6

St. John’s - 6.5

Butler - 6

PC - 6

Creighton - 4.5

Seton Hall - 3

Georgetown - no responses

Marquette - no responses

Villanova - no responses

Never ones to lack in self-confidence, UConn fans were feeling plenty good about their team at the time of voting…wonder what the vibes are like in Maui right now??

DePaul comes in 2nd on the Fan Pulse rankings with an 8/10. This is the best DePaul team in years, and while that may only be a mid-table or 2nd tier team this season, DePaul fans have every right to be amped up about both this season, and the future under Chris Holtmann.

Seton Hall fans being perhaps a bit too harsh on their squad after 2 respectable wins in Charleston. They’re a long way from being an NCAAT team, or even an NIT team like last season, but they still have Sha…and that’s about all I can say to try and cheer you guys up, sorry Hall fans!

Moving forward, I’m hopefully—if my ADHD brain cooperates—going to create a regular panel, with 5 Twitter accounts per fan base. If you’ve been voting, don’t worry, you’ll be on the list. If you’d like on the list, particularly Marquette and Villanova fans, reach out. I presume Georgetown fans are boycotting my content because they hate me for reminding them that Ed Cooley is a snake and their program is still in the toilet in year 2, but if there’s any Georgetown fans willing to participate, hit me up!

“Same ol’ St. John’s” - On a Bahamas Trip Gone Wrong, Generational Sports Trauma, and Common Sense

The flight down flew by—figuratively, but thankfully literally as well—the anticipation of the biggest non-conference game in my 15 years vs. a Baylor squad that many think can make a lot of noise come March. Coming off a dominant performance against a top-60 KenPom team, and likely tournament team, New Mexico on Sunday, the world felt full of possibilities.

A lighthouse. IYKYK.

And the good omens were everywhere. On the way down, my wife and I had a whole row—the full 6 seats—to ourselves on the emptiest flight I’ve seen in maybe a decade. That was Monday. Upon checking into our hotel (not Baha Mar), we posted up on the beach, where I saw another good omen, in the form of an inside joke with some of my #SJUBB Twitter crew: a lighthouse perched on the island across the harbor from my hotel. On Thursday, we (Mrs. FiG and I) hung by the pools at Baha Mar with friends. As we were leaving the pool, another good omen, I stumbled across an elderly British man sporting the crest of Sheffield Wednesday—a team a few of my #SJUBB friends have adopted as our own, given we all had pre-existing allegiances to EPL teams.

This delightful old British man and I bonded over our love of the Owls #COYO.

The vibes were immaculate as the kids say…until the weren’t.

Started with the official St. John’s pre-game at the Swimming Pig. The vibes were great, but soured by atrocious service. The omens had started turning. It was as if the restaurant/bar was totally unaware that a few hundred SJU fans would be disrupting their Thursday dinner time. It took 45 minutes to get a drink, which we took to go to get good seats in the largely GA “arena”. Arrived to the convention hall a couple minutes before 6 only to find the line to get in was already a mile long. More bad omens.

Once inside, we grabbed the best seats we could (2 rows behind the SJU bench but behind the baseline). Not the best view, but so close to the bench it made up for it. But the bad omens continued, went to the bar only to discover one of the stupidest setups in the history of sports (and I say this as someone who frequents Carnesecca Arena)—rather than have 5 bartenders, the convention hall had 3 cashiers from whom you had to purchase drink tickets, and then 2 bartenders who would turn those tickets into drinks. A piss poor setup if I ever saw, but we powered through and got our drinks.

The view from Thursday’s seats in the corner.

Bad omens be damned, with drinks in hand we settled in for what we expected to be a battle. Instead we got 2 20-minute blow-outs, followed by 10 minutes of back-and-forth battling.

Somehow, the vibes got even higher before they came crashing down. St. John’s racing out to a 7-0 lead, and extending it to an 18-point lead when RJ Luis hit a 3 with 4:07 to go in the half, 42-24. Baylor went on a mini 6-2 run to close the half, but the Red Storm fans were BUZZING at halftime. Riding high on the back of a dominant half.

Baylor came out ready at the half, with a 10-5 run to start it off, and continued to slowly chip away at the lead. SJU had some responses, particular with around the 4 minute mark, when Kadary Richmond, playing one of his best games of the season to date, found Aaron Scott who converted a 3-pointer and 1 for the 4 point play, giving SJU a 6-point, 72-66 lead. ESPN had our win probability at 86.2% following that play.

Less than a minute later, Baylor took the lead, and after a Johnnies answer, Baylor took a 3-point lead on a Jeremy Roach 3-pointer. Certainly an omen of what was to come.

The next sequence was chaotic. Jayden Nunn stole the ball from Zuby, and then missed a jumper at the end of the shot clock on the other end. Kadary came down with the rebound, got it out to RJ, who was ultimately fouled. RJ only hit the front end of 2 FTs, Baylor missed a shot down the other end, and Zuby got the rebound only to promptly turn it over on a steal by Johnnies legend Norchad Omier with 0:21 on the clock. As a side note, Omier knocked Zuby to the ground, I have no clue how that wasn’t a foul. 

Simeon fouled Roach with 0:17 on the clock and a 2-point deficit. Surely the sure-handed Roach, a 78% FT shooter in his career, who played in plenty of huge games across 4 years at Duke, would not miss a FT. At the very least, he’d hit the front-end of the 1&1…

…and in what felt at the time like a sign that God is in fact Catholic, and not Baptist, Roach missed the front-end, and Zuby came down with the board, and dumped it to Kadary, who was never letting anyone else take the shot. He went coast to coast, got to the tin for 2 to tie the game, and a VJ Edgecombe corner-3 clanked off the far side rim, meaning we were heading to OT.

First OT was a seesaw affair, Baylor jumping out to a 4-point lead only for SJU to claw it back, only for Baylor to jump to a 5-point lead, only for SJU to claw it back with a sequence at the end that included a double dribble by Robert Wright, III in the face of a pretty ferocious SJU press. On the ensuing possession Kadary once again tried to get to the tin, being the aggressive alpha scorer SJU needs him to be, and was fouled on the floor heading in. Kadary hit both FTs, Roach missed a jumper on the final possession and to double overtime we went.

Double OT was the inverse of the first OT. The Johnnies held 4 & 5-point leads at points. The 5-point lead coming with 2:21 left after a Wilcher 3, assisted by Smith. The next 2 minutes saw just a Baylor FT go on the board, giving the Johnnies a 4-point lead when Smith grabbed a defensive board and was fouled. Smith went to the line with 0:18 on the clock, 2 shots, and a 4-point lead. He converted 1 of 2. After a Baylor timeout, Edgecombe hit a miraculous, well guarded 3 point jumper to make it a 2 point game. After a TO for each team, SJU set its inbound play and got the ball to Zuby, who Baylor promptly fouled, with 4.1 seconds on the clock.

Coming into the game Zuby was 62.5% on the year, and was only 6/10 on the game. Surely though, he was capable of hitting one to at least keep the worst case scenario as a third overtime, instead of the potential for an L. Scott Drew asked for a bullshit review that the officials inexplicably allowed, icing Zuby in the process, VJ furthered this by taking court drying into his own hands and wiping down the lane. Well you all know what happened next.

There is no rest for the weary in an MTE, so the Johnnies had to come back the next day and take care of business versus UVA, and they did so, handedly, as one would expect against a team whose coach quit on them 2 weeks before the season. Of particular note, the fans in attendance let Zuby know we were there and that we had his back. It may have been the first time Zuby had smiled in over 20 hours. I love our fanbase.

Of course, tired as they were from the game with us, and as good as Tennessee is, Baylor got beaten easily Friday, 77-62, damaging us further by making the Baylor loss look worse.

No one had circled the Baylor game as a W when making there preseason projections, so we were basically right on track. Beat Georgia Sunday, a game the Johnnies were favored by 7.5 at open, 5.5 by tip according to ESPN. Unfortunately, nothing went right. Everyone struggled other than Zuby and RJ. Kadary was a no-factor shooting 1-8 from the field, for just 3 points, 4 boards, and 2 assists. Smith was 1-7, 5 boards, 2 assists, and 1 TO that saw him get yanked and spend the rest of the game on the bench (maybe by choice? more below). No sense in going any deeper than that. Nothing went right. We had 15 turnovers. Shot 31.1% from the field, 10.5% from 3, the lone bright spot was 82.1% from the stripe, buoyed by Zuby’s 12-13 performance.

The trip is a disappointment any way you slice. I don’t care how good the opponent is, you cannot blow 18 point leads. You have to find ways to grab boards, make your FTs, and close games. There were too many late TOs and sloppy play to close against a high-quality team like Baylor. 2-1 would have kept SJU in the top-25 most likely. Instead, we’ve fallen out. The buzz of consecutive ranked-weeks falling by the wayside.

Generational Sports Trauma

I’m a firm believer that generational sports trauma is a real thing. And obviously trauma is too strong a word, and I don’t mean to diminish the suffering of folks who have suffered actual real life trauma, by comparing the frivolity of a game to their suffering. I just can’t find a better word.

What is generational sports trauma (let’s call it “GST” for ease)? To me, it’s the irrational fear, anxiety, sensation, whatever you want to call it that is held from all the seasons that have come before. For example, if you think Bills’ fans assholes don’t clench a little bit every time their kicker lines up for a game-winning field goal, you’re kidding yourself. As a Giant fan, I definitely never feel safe with a lead on the Eagles at home knowing that the original Miracle at the Meadowlands (which occurred 7 years before my birth) and the New Miracle at the Meadowlands (2010 DeSean Jackson punt return capping a 28-point 4th quarter from Philly) have occurred.

For St. John’s fans, the generational trauma goes back so very far. The venerable SJU Camel Guy on Twitter keeps a running tally of all of the bad luck and poor decisions dating all the way back to things like the school forcing Lapchick into retirement due to the university’s mandatory retirement age, costing us a little recruit you may have heard of: Lew Alcindor (not a joke or exaggeration, even after Lapchick was hired, SJU remained a 6-to-5 favorite for Alcindor). Through the 80’s, which gave us the apocryphal story of Louie and SJU leaving a recruit from Nigeria named Hakeem Olajuwon at the airport on a snowy NYC day. As the legend goes, Olajuwon had 2 other tickets, one to Houston. He asked a Nigerian baggage handler which climate would be closest to Nigeria, and the rest is history. There was Fran Fraschilla in the late 90’s, the last great coach SJU had, done in by his own dick (literally) and his flirtation with Arizona State. If you believe in curses, the curse of Fraschilla’s Willie may be the closest thing we have to a curse on SJUBB.

That brought us Jarvis, who passed on Darius Miles and Carmelo Anthony, and apparently rubbed Jason Fraser the wrong way during his visit. Jarvis was fired mid-season, leading to the Pittsburgh Incident, and the consequences thereof (thanks Abe Keita!). Calipari wanted the SJU job, apparently, and rumor has it Louie shut that down due to 15-year-old recruiting grudges. Instead we got Norm Roberts, whose name alone should be enough. There was the Marcus LoVett phantom knee injury. Mullin failing to recruit RJ Barrett, who grew up an SJU fan thanks to his father, who played basketball at SJU and his mother who ran track for the school.  And who could forget the string of criminals: a serial killer walk-on, Rysheed Jordan and his attempted robbery charge, and 7’0” 5* commit Zach Brown, who never made it to campus.

In 2019, the last year SJU was in the tournament, we unceremoniously,—but rightfully—showed Chris Mullin the door. Rather than hire Rick Pitino, then on the sidelines in Greece, but still maintaining his residence and membership at nearby Winged Foot, the Johnnies put on an absolute debacle of a search. He wound up at Iona in 2020. They didn’t even look at local option and alumnus Tim Cluess, who would have ran through shit for a chance at the SJU job. Bobby Hurley leveraged us for a raise/extension at ASU. Porter fucking Moser leveraged us for a raise/extension at Loyola. And Ryan Odom, fresh off a hot run with UMBC wouldn’t even meet with SJU. We inexplicably landed on Mike Anderson based on the word of ::checks notes:: Felton Jeffrey Capel the third?! What the fuck were we thinking?!

Even the limited “good” times held their own traumas: DJ Kennedy going down with a knee injury, leaving us with essentially 5 guys for the tournament. In 2015 Chris Obekpa gets drug tested, pops for weed, and gets suspended for the NCAA Tournament, leaving a thin team even thinner, and lacking any real presence in the frontcourt.

Needless to say, we’ve been through a lot. Long-suffering for sure. As an animal lover, I always liken it to a beaten dog. If a dog has been abused, even when it finds itself in new, friendlier environs, it might cower every time someone yells (at the dog or otherwise) or moves or raises their hand in a manner that reminds the rescued dog of the dark days of its prior life.

Common Sense

Of course, when considering the beaten dog, we can all understand that the dog’s reaction is not logical. Instinct? Maybe. A pavlovian response? Most definitely. But there’s no logic there.

When it comes to our sports teams, we have trouble separating emotion from logic. I’m guilty of it, particularly with St. John’s. I think it’s more acute with college teams because the connection frequently runs deeper than mere fandom. When it’s not my team, I find it hilarious. If I had a nickel every time I said “Jets/Mets will always Jets/Mets” I’d be a billionaire. However, in the long term: the 50+ years of (mostly) Jets futility, the 40+ years of (mostly) Mets futility and lifetimes of SJU (mostly) futility, there is no  evidence that there is some supernatural force keeping bad teams bad, and good teams good.

Sure, if you have an owner for the long-term (hello Wilpons and James Dolan!) they can drag the franchise down. But that is an identifiable issue, and only affects the pros. And teams like the Jets and Mets have undergone ownership changes, similarly negating such an explanation, to say nothing of the number of front-offices those teams have churned through during the time since their last championship. However, the human brain will always hunt for the easiest explanations, and so the fan-brain draws a straight line from Bucky fucking Dent through Bill Buckner through Aaron fucking Boone, and blames the curse of the Bambino. From the butt fumble to Aaron Rodgers injury, “the Jets can’t have nice things.”

At St. John’s we’ve had multiple different administrations over these years of misery. That is not the explanation. And so we’re left with the illogic of it all, the chaos of it all. As I’ve also said many times: it’s unfathomable how one program, across so many different decision makers, could make so many bad decisions the last 25 years. If you were trying to tank a program, you couldn’t have done as good a job as the various presidents, ADs and other administrators at SJU over the last 25 years.

But the logic brain dictates “that was then, this is now.” This is not Bobby G, Anton Goff and Lavin/Mullin. This is not Chris Mullin. This is father Shanley, a man known for centering basketball to boost the profile of a private catholic school in the Big East. This is Ed Kull, an incredibly smart and capable AD with deep ties to the school and a desire to win. This is Mike Repole back in the fold, and using his immense resources to help fund the most talented team in at least a decade, probably two and a half.

I’ve even seen comparisons between this year’s team and last year’s team, so let’s dissect those using my favorite metric, Torvik:

T-Ranks at 7 Games:
2024: 59
2025: 11 (15 if you remove preseason projections)

AdjDE
2024: 101.7
2025: 93.0 (removing preseason projections)

AdjOE
2024: 115.1
2025: 117.1 (removing preseason projections)

Best Win
2024: T-Rank #43 Utah (43 at the time, finished 40) with 0 quality OOC opponents ahead of us on the schedule)
2025: T-Rank #46 UNM (sporting an upset of #20 UCLA)

Losses
2024: #46 at the time Michigan (finished 118); #65 at the time Dayton (finished 47)
2025: #21 Baylor in double OT by 1; #43 Georgia by 3

Focus on the efficiency. The more efficient you are, the more likely you are to win games. Right now this team is 8 points better defensively than last year’s squad, and 2 points better than last year’s squad offensively, but also turning a corner. We posted our 3 best offensive efficiency numbers on Torvik against our last 3 opponents before laying a shooting egg vs. Georgia, including a 130.7 ADJOE vs. UNM and 135.3 ADJOE vs. UVa, and a 118.6 vs. Baylor. In purely raw efficiency numbers, we were only 1.5 points less efficient on offense against UNM than Fordham (a 92-60 blowout), i.e. we improved greatly to play at the same offensive level versus #46 UNM as we did against #156 Fordham.

We also still have 1 opportunity left against K-State at home, before the ample opportunities that will be presented in conference play. KState has not been great, but I expect them to improve and be a tournament team. They are loaded with talent and will figure it out, just hopefully not before 12/7. Further, while much is being made about the Big East’s struggles—and no doubt, those struggles are real—the conference will not have 2 atrocious teams weighing the league down this year. Georgetown may actually be just as bad, but we won’t have a 2024 DePaul situation this year (297th).

Of course the other point here is that this team is not static, we saw how greatly the team improved over the course of last season, when we finished 15th in Torvik. There is obviously less room to improve this year, but rounding up one, we went from 60th after 7 games to 15th, a 75% gain. A 75% gain again would have us in the top-5. While that’s probably too much to ask, the point remains: this team will continue to improve, and will play its best basketball in March.

Finally, look at the games we lost this year:

Baylor - preseason T7 in championship odds. A legit Final Four contender headed by a national championship winning coach. A game we lost by 1 point in double OT.

Georgia - A likely tournament team, in a game we shot 31.1/10.5…yes, not a typo, 10.5 from deep. If you merely shoot 3/19 (15.7%) from deep and 20/61 (32.7%) from 2, still well below our season averages of 48.3% and 35.7% (averages that are dragged down by this abysmal performance) and we win the game. Some of it was no doubt Georgia’s defense, but we had plenty of make-able shots we missed.

In other words, if you let your logic brain win out, there is no reason to panic. It took an atrocious shooting performance from us for Georgia to even beat us by 1 point. It is disappointing, and at the end of the day you need results, but this is far, far, far from the same ol’ Johnnies.

And even if you are one to believe in the supernatural. That there’s some energy/bad vibe/curse hanging over this program, preventing even the legendary Rick Pitino from saving us, shouldn’t you also believe that there’s supernatural power in positive thinking? In a fan base that looks, and talks, and acts like it’s got a dominant team, and will persevere despite the setbacks?

I know I do.

The Kyle Neptune Problem

Frankly, my heart feels for Kyle Neptune. The man has been dealt a shit hand. However, he’s also done himself no favors. It feels like time for ‘nova to move on from Kyle Neptune. The questions are “when?” and “how?”

In the sympathy category, Neptune was brought in very late in the cycle his first year, being hired on April 20, 2022, and Jay Wright, for all his great success, did not leave much of an NIL infrastructure behind for Neptune to work with, which makes sense when you consider that NIL is part of the reason Jay retired in the first place.

When he was hired, the portal had already been open for weeks. Some kids had even committed to new schools already. He didn’t pull a single player from the portal, and was left to roll with what was on the roster, and the incoming freshmen class that he managed to hold together (no doubt with an assist from Wright).

Additionally, the man has to toil in the incredibly long shadow of Jay Wright, the greatest coach in program history, and one of the greatest coaches of all-time.

Year 1 - Give the Man a Pass!

While that might not seem great, it was a team coming off a Final Four, returning Justin Moore, Eric Dixon, Jermaine Samuels, Caleb Daniels, Jordan Longino, and Brandon Slater. To that core Neptune kept together a freshmen class ranked 19th in the country per 247, containing future NBA player Cam Whitmore (11), Mark Armstrong (62), and Brendan Hausen (136). Hausen was not ready to contribute meaningfully as a freshman, and frankly neither was Armstrong. Unfortunately for Neptune, when Moore went down for the season 13 games in, Armstrong was pressed into service as the lead guard. It did not go well, averaging 22 MPG, 1.2 assists, a 1-to-1 assist to turnover ratio, and 5.7 ppg.

Nova struggled Neptune’s first year, but still finished 17-17 (10-10), 6th in the Big East. It was a “pass” year for Neptune between the late start and the Moore injury, a lackluster performance could be forgiven, even despite bad losses to Temple and Portland when at full strength early in the year.

Neptune channeling the frustrations of Kevin McCallister all ‘nova nation during last year’s roller coaster season.

Year 2 - Locked and Loaded and Strapped In for the Roller Coaster

What followed that summer was a portal spending spree. Villanova spent the season getting its NIL in-order, and Neptune took full advantage come April. He brought in big, athletic guard TJ Bamba from Wazzou, he brought in Tyler Burton from Richmond—one of the most sought after players in the portal, Hakim Hart—a proven guard from Maryland, and most-puzzlingly Lance Ware—a C/F who could barely get off the floor at Kentucky in 3 seasons.

On paper, the team looked ready to head back to the NCAAT. There was optimism on the main line. Nova wasted no time taking a huge steamy dump all over said optimism. A week into the season they lost by 4 to Penn in the Palestra. However, they followed that up with 4 straight wins against power conference opponents in the top 80 of KenPom, en route to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis—vs. Maryland (62), Texas Tech (31), UNC (9), and Memphis (76). It looked like the Penn game was a distant memory. A small bump on the road to the promised land.

The flight home from Atlantis must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way. Five days after beating Memphis to win the Battle, Villanova dropped a home game at the Finn to the other SJU (99) 78-65. The loss guaranteed Villanova would be in the 5th/6th place game versus Drexel (126) in the Big5. Villanova also lost to Drexel on ‘nova’s secondary home floor, the Wells Fargo Center (a game that inexplicably is a “neutral” site in the eyes of the NCAA, despite SJU’s BET games being counted as “home” games by the NCAA. Make it make sense).

At that point the resume damage was done, and it would take a herculean effort in conference play to get back. But the roller coaster had a couple more bumps. Nova beat a bad UCLA squad at home to round out their OOC schedule. They followed that up by opening Big East play with an overtime victory over Creighton (11) in Omaha, once again inspiring hope—this time that ‘nova could pull off the massive conference season it needed to get back to the tournament. The followed-up with a routine road victory over DePaul (304) and a 1-point home victory over Xavier (56).

Nova proceeded to lose 7 of its next 9, the lone wins being vs. DePaul and vs. Providence (59), both at home. They did come within a point of a home victory over UConn, but followed that up by getting humiliated by 20 points in MSG vs. St. John’s. They also started the 7-of-9 streak with an embarrassing loss at home to St. John’s, a 10-pt L that didn’t feel remotely that close (I would know, I was there), with St. John’s keeping ‘nova at bay the entire game, goign wire-to-wire.

And THAT 7-of-9 stretch was all she wrote wrote. At 12-11 (5-7) ‘nova needed to win out or win the BET to make the dance. Neither of which occurred.

Player Regression: A Theme That Generates Depression

Who is that masked man?! Certainly not the TJ Bamba Wazzou and Oregon Ducks fans know!

This background is important to set the stage, but also to tell the story of one of the worst aspects of Neptune’s tenure: player regression. It has been seen almost across the board with transfers. Tyler Burton went from 19 ppg to 7.5, and eFG from 50.9% to 48.5%. The A10 to the Big East is a jump, no doubt, but he still should’ve averaged double digits.

TJ Bamba went from 15.8 ppg to 10, but his eFG actually improved, bringing him from 49.6% to 51.5%, the problem? His usage dropped off from 27.5% at Wazzou to 20.7%, he played 32.2 mpg at Wazzou to 28 on the Main Line, and he went from 12.6 FGA at Wazzou to 8 at ‘nova. Watching the Wildcats last year I found myself flabbergasted that they were not using TJ Bamba—a proven high major scoring threat—more than they were. And Bamba is right back at it this year, starting all 3 games for the Oregon Ducks, and posting 12 ppg in just 24.7 mpg, with a slightly improved 52% eFG.

Hakim Hart, another proven high major player, suffered a similar fate, going from 32 mpg to 22 mpg from Maryland to ‘nova, and going from 11.4 ppg to 6.3 ppg.

The odd thing is, this only seems to happen to transfers. Dixon took a jump in year 1 of Neptune, stayed flat year 2, and looks like the best version of himself so far in this young season. Before his injury, Justin Moore looked like his old self for 13 games under Neptune. Caleb Daniels improved in year 1 of Neptune. Brandon Slater was basically the same under Neptune. And Jordan Longino suddenly seems to be closer to what ‘nova fans thought they were getting this season than he was the previous 3 years.

While it might be expected that guys who came up for a year or 2 under Jay might have a leg up on developing, it held true for the 2 freshmen that only played for Neptune as well. Mark Armstrong progressed slightly, before bouncing for the G-League. Brendan Hausen improved slightly year 1 to year 2 before bouncing for K-State where he’s averaging 19.5 ppg through 3 games on 55.6% from deep. Unsustainable? Sure. But clearly Hausen is a mixed bag in that he both progressed a bit under Neptune, but Neptune never unlocked his full potential.

This dichotomy is very interesting in that there were certainly some rumblings that Neptune didn’t have as much control over the transfer process as you’d have expected, with NIL funders and boosters driving the bus. That would explain the difference between the team on paper and the middling results.

It will be interesting to see what happens with this years less-talented transfer class. Can Kyle coach them up, or will we see more regression? Is this less-heralded transfer class a better fit for Neptune than last year’s high-caliber class? Early returns are not promising.

However, if by some miracle Kyle Neptune is retained, or if he finds another job at a lower level, it might be worth considering a modified Shaka Smart approach. I think “no transfers ever” is a bit extreme, but if Neptune focuses on bringing in and developing top high school recruits, and supplements with one or 2 transfer that fit the roster, it’s possible he can improve his results. Of course, being retained or getting another job are HUGE “ifs” for Neptune.

Year 3 - Cue The Doors: “ This is the End”?

This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end

It certainly feels like the end and we’re only 4 games in. The Wildcats started out with a shaky win over Lafayette by 12, a deficit that belies the nip-and-tuck nature of this game, which was a 1-point battle at halftime, and was only a 6 point game with 5:30 to play.

Neptune’s squad followed that up with a home loss to Columbia by 10 in the Finn. Columbia felt like they got any look they wanted, and hung 90 on Nova. Two games later, ‘nova went on the road across town and lost to the other SJU by 7, practically guaranteeing that ‘nova will not win the Big5.

In Jay Wright’s tenure Villanova won at least a share of the Big5 title in the old round robin format 13 of the 18 seasons (11 outright) it was contested (canceled in 2020-21 for COVID), including 5 straight from 2013 through 2017, and 7 of his last 8. Neptune won a share of the Big 5 his first season, and finished 6th in the Big5 last season. He likely will not win again this season.

In a vacuum, neither losing to no. 158 in KenPom nor no. 103 is unforgivable. But we do not exist in vacuums, we exist in the context of all that has come before. In this case, it’s a 3-5 record in Big 5 games. It’s losing to 2 inferior opponents in 3 games. It’s not making a tournament his first 2 seasons. It’s all of the following losses since taking over:

• at Temple (120)

• Portland (N) (157)

• at DePaul (135)

• at Buttler (119)

• at Penn (213)

• vs. the other SJU (99)

• vs. Drexel (126)

• vs. Columbia (158)

• vs. the other SJU, again (103)

You simply cannot lose that many bad games as a high major team in a 3-year span.

It also feels like, from the outside, NIL donors pulled back some of their NIL dollars this past off-season, given how little high-level talent ‘nova brought in, and the fact that half of it came from their own backyard.

Wooga Poplar is the only proven high-major player on this roster. Jhamir Brickus is an undersized PG from La Salle. He can definitely ball, but his defense leaves much to be desired (as does Poplar’s for that matter). Tyler Perkins also moved from the city out to the main line suburbs, transferring from Penn to ‘nova. Perkins played forward at Penn, but is being asked to play as a 2-guard. He definitely has the shot for it, but might not be ready to play at this level or defend Big East guards.

To make matters worse, Neptune seems to be saying all the wrong things.

What Went Wrong?

On top of the lack of talent this season (a new problem, as the last 2 rosters were plenty talented), I think it’s clear Kyle was simply not ready for a high major coaching gig. There’s always the instinct to keep things “in-house” at successful programs, but the Jay Wright coaching tree is not very strong, and Neptune was one of the only coaches in the family that could credibly be considered. Pat Chambers had failed out at Penn State, Speedy Claxton may have been a better hire, but I don’t think he was fully viewed as “in the family,” since he never played or coached at ‘nova. Tom Pecora was off in the wilderness as Quinnipiac’s assistant head coach after failing at Fordham. Urgo had yet to be a head coach. So that really left Kyle as the only possible “in-house” candidate. Further complicating matters was that Jay Wright screwed ‘nova with is late resignation, leaving limited outside options, and certainly none with a marquee name.

The look says it all…

At the time, Kyle’s resume consisted of being Jay’s assistant and one season at Fordham where he took them from laughingstock A10 basement dweller with KenPom’s of 292, 260, 245, and 310 in the 4 years before he arrived, to a respectable middle-of-the-pack A10 side with a KenPom of 173. Not an amazing turnaround by any stretch, but it was still a very nice coaching job by Neptune. The calling card of that Fordham team was its defense, ranking 41st in KenPom AdjD. The offense was abysmal, clocking in at 321st. At ‘nova his teams have been all over, currently ranking 93 in AdjD after finishing 13th last season, and the AdjO ranks 37 currently. Last year the offense ranked 87th. 

On the offensive end turnovers have been killer, with ‘nova sporting a 18.4% TO%, good for 196th in the country, and almost as bad as Neptune’s 139th ranked offense, which came in at 18.9%. On the defensive end, this year’s team is allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3, 238th in the country, while allowing opponents to shoot 43% of their shots from deep. They also allow teams to really work the ball around, as they’re loathe to press or trap ball handlers in the half court, allowing an assist percentage of 65%, 327th in the nation. Similarly, they’re just 259th in the country in TO% defense for much the same reason.

One last note, Jay Wright’s later teams were notoriously slow. They kept the game manageable, using a slow pace, IQ, and beautiful, position-less basketball to frequently make up for talent deficits. It became such a thing that it’s hard to remember his teams ever playing differently. The slow pace allowed the IQ and coaching to shine through as his players patiently broke down a defense, hunting for a good shot.

Jay Wright teams ranked slower than 200th in KenPom AdjTempo won 1 of his 2 national championships, made another F4, another S16, another tournament berth, and had ‘nova poised to do damage as a 2/3 seed in 2020 before the world shut down. However, Jay knew how to play to his personnel. In 2017-18 Jay won his 2nd national championship with the number 1 offense in the country, and the played at the 150th tempo in the country. That was bar none Jay’s most talented roster, featuring future NBA stars Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, as well as short-lived NBA players and current European pros Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall, European pro Phil Booth and of course NBA player, and the sixth man of ‘nova’s championship team, the Big Ragu himself, Donte Divincenzo (side note, Donte was 6 years old growing up in Newark, Delaware when I was a freshman in college there. Fuck I’m old.).

In other words, that a fuck ton of talent. And because there was so much talent, Jay let the reins go loose a bit, allowing his talent to play a little faster, but under control, allowing the pure unadulterated talent of that roster carry the day.

On the flip side, Kyle’s Fordham team played at the 139th pace in the country, but again, the offense was atrocious. Whether that offense scared Neptune, or whether he got back to Villanova and thought “I gotta do it Jay’s way,” all 3 of his teams at ‘nova have ranked sub-300 in tempo. That is a snails pace. That is the slowest Tony Bennett (RIP) Virginia teams. When he had as much talent has he had the first two years, it might have behooved him to quicken the pace just a little bit, and allow his offensive studs to go to work. Slow games make it easy for plucky underdogs to swing upsets. If I only have to be better than you across 100 possessions, that’s a much smaller sample size, and will be more prone to variance than 120 possessions or 140 possessions (2 average paced teams) or 160 possessions.

Can you play slow and be successful? Of course, Jay Wright and Tony Bennett did it to great success. But they both had highly experienced teams. Jay’s first national championship team started 4 juniors who had played all 3 years at ‘nova (a different era). Tony Bennet’s national championship team was eerily similar, with a rotation that included 1 senior, 4 juniors, 2 sophomores and 1 freshman. All but 1 of the upperclassmen was a transfer, the rest played multiple years under Bennet.

In the transfer portal age, when you have a talented roster, it is probably best to play the numbers, and at least play to an average pace. If a team is going to upset you, at least make them prove it over a larger sample size. Playing slow feeds right into Cinderella’s hands.

Given the shortcomings with his ‘nova squad, and the fact that he seems to just be trying to emulate Jay Wright instead of putting his own coaching stamp on the team, Kyle Neptune could have used a few more years at Fordham to hone his craft and develop his own style of play. Instead, Jay and ‘nova threw him out of the frying pan and into the fire, giving him a promotion he was not ready for. He was almost set up to fail. Rather than try to carve out his style as a coach, he reverted to the familiar “Nova Way,” and it has been an abject failure.

Many people called for Neptune’s head last season. Frankly, I was one of them (though “call” probably too much, since I really had no dog in the fight, but I felt they should’ve fired him). Four games into 2024-25, and it is clear that those who called for Kyle’s head were right. He should have been let go.

When? and How? and Who?

This is the million dollar question. Personally, I am of the belief that firing an abysmal coach mid-season is the correct move. MAYBE you can salvage something a la Ohio State with Jake Diebler last year, but at the very least you help prevent apathy in the fan base by send the clear, unwavering message that “we hear you, this is unacceptable and we’re not going to tolerate it,” and you give yourself all the time in the world to fully evaluate potential hires, initiate back channels, and develop a clear strategy for the coaching search in March. So if it were me, I’d fire him yesterday. But certainly Saturday at the latest, after they lose to Bennett-less UVa in Baltimore on Friday.

Of course it’s not me, in fact it’s technically no body at this time, as Villanova doesn’t have an athletic director at the moment, not even on an interim basis. Whether the president of the university knows, cares, or is likely to do anything about it mid-season is a question better directed to ‘nova folks who know the inner workings of the school better than I do. However, I see no reason why the president couldn’t step in and make the call. This season has already been embarrassing to the public face of your university (the program, not Neptune), and it may only get worse. Firing Neptune at least stops the damage to the brand, as everyone will expect an embarrassment with an interim head coach.

Kyle Neptune and future Villanova Interim Head Coach Jerold Taylor Wright, Jr. in happier times.

Alternatively, they don’t even have to go the usual route and promote an assistant to head coach…I know a certain two-time national championship winning coach who is sitting at home most days, except the handful of days each month he’s broadcasting. That’s right…”interim head coach Jay Wright!”

I know, it sounds crazy, but as I said above, the last 2 seasons one couldn’t help but wonder “what if Jay had this team?” That question feels less poignant with this less talented roster, but I still firmly believe that if you gave Jay the reins tomorrow, he could at least make the NCAAT. Does Jay say yes? Almost certainly not, but it’d be worth a call if you’re the decision maker at ‘nova.

Realistically, Villanova/Vanillanova/VillaNoFun is a small ‘c’ conservative institution, without an athletic director, who has their first black head coach on the sidelines. Firing him 4-5 games into the season would be a bad look on many levels, and is highly unlikely. There’s probably a slightly better chance that he gets fired mid-season, but I’d still put the odds pretty low.

The most likely outcome is a March firing following the BET. I’m not sure who would be on that short list. I would expect you absolutely have to go outside the family at this point. As well-regarded as Urgo is, he’s yet to prove anything, and just hiring another middling Fordham coach might cause a certain Twitter user to sue the university to get his parents’ past 1842 Day donations back...and also cause the rest of the fan base to revolt. The one name I saw floated by Chris—formerly of the Full40 podcast—was Speedy Claxton. Claxton’s Flying Dutchmen defeated Seton Hall last night, and as Chris pointed out, Speedy might be sufficiently “in the family,” but also far enough removed from ‘nova that he brings a fresh perspective and fresh ideas to the main line. I’ll be honest, I was not that high on Speedy initially, but he had won me over by the end of his 2nd year. All he does is win and recruit above his head at Hofstra.

In any event, unfortunately for my ‘nova friends, I think things will get a whole lot worse before they get better. Godspeed.

BIG EAST TWITTER COGNOSCENTI POLL

So I had an idea, we’ll see how this goes. A weekly Big East AP-style poll comprised of known and trusted Big East fan accounts, bloggers, podcasters, etc. We got 32 responses, but a certain Butler fan who shall remain nameless misunderstood the assignment, so I was unfortunately forced to toss his ballot, leaving 31. Having Villanova as #1 was a dead giveaway you did not understand what was happening haha.

To keep it from being a popularity contest, and in line with the official Big East Coach’s preseason poll, you could not vote for your own team. However, down the bottom there’s a “fan pulse” section for each team, where I asked each voter for the fan pulse of their team. Additionally, we voted for Big East Player of the Week, with the results below. The poll was scored 10 points for a first place vote, 9 for a 2nd, etc. on down to 1 point for 10th.

So without further adieu, here are the results of the Twitter Cognoscenti Poll, parens are first place votes, after the hyphen is total points:

1. UConn (25) - 276

2. Marquette (1) - 229

3. Creighton (3) - 226

4. St. John’s (1) - 180

5. Xavier - 147

6. Providence - 130

7. DePaul (1) - 90

8. Georgetown - 78

9. Villanova - 66

10. Butler - 64

11. Seton Hall - 54

Given the structure of the poll, we’ll never have a truly unanimous number 1, as that team’s fans would have to vote for someone else, but even still, UConn fell 3 votes short of first place. Those votes went to Creighton, Marquette, and…DePaul?! I’ll allow it!

Player of the Week:

Ryan Kalkbrenner (1st) - 20/32 votes

The man, the myth, the legend: Cockbrenner

Not even remotely shocking to see Cockbrenner win Player of the Week from our panel. The man dropped a double double on UTRGV. And you might say, so what? It’s UTRGV…well if you haven’t heard, this wasn’t just any double-double…Cockbrenner dropped 49 points on UTRGV on 20/22 shooting…yes 91% shooting. He was 2/2 from deep, 7/8 from the stripe. He had 11 boards, and added 3 blocks for good measure. He followed that up with a “mediocre” performance, dropping 24 & 7, with 3 blocks once again versus FDU. He was once again a perfect 1/1 from deep, and a perfect 5/5 from the stripe. 9/10 from the field to shoot 90% once again. For those keeping score at home, Cockbrenner’s average this week was:

36 .5/8.5/1.5 and 3 blocks per game, 0.5 fouls per game, shooting 90.6/100/92.3.

There was a decent chance Cockbrenner could’ve crossed the 40-pt threshold again in the FDU game, but given it was non-competitive, he only played 23 minutes (vs. 36 in the UTRGV game).

Don’t ask Cockbrenner how he does it. You don’t wanna know.

Never mind that UTRGV starts a 6’8” freshman from Mongolia at center, and spells him wit h a 6’9” Australian sophomore that is listed as a forward, not a center. Or that FDU has 1 player over 6’7”, and he only played 7 minutes…do not worry about that. Do not ask how Cockbrenner does what he does. Do not ask why every ref in America is afraid to call fouls against Cockbrenner. Pay no attention to the big man behind the curtain, that is none your concern.

This doofy looking mofo?!

Others receiving votes (total): Alex Karaban (3); Jacob Meyer (2); RJ Luis (2); Jerome Hunter (1); Kam Jones (1); idk (1); “Gus Bus” I assume Gus Yalden? lol (1)

Fan Pulse:
(average score of responses by fans of that team 1-10 scale)

UConn - 8

Marq - 8.5

Creighton - 6.5

St. John’s - 8.5

Xavier - 6

Providence - 5.5

Depaul - 6

Georgetown - 7

Villanova - 3

Butler - 2

Seton Hall - 1

A lot of confidence from 3 of the top-4 teams in the poll. Surprisingly tepid pulse from Creighton. Georgetown fans irrationally confident after beating ::checks notes:: Lehigh by 8 and Fairfield by 12…go off Hoya fans. Been awhile since you could feel this good about your team!

We’ll bring this to you weekly on Mondays, as my schedule permits. But hopefully every week this season. We may try and curate the list a little more, try to get something closer to equal participation by the fanbases, maybe 5 folks per fan base. If you’re interested and you have an account with more than 2,500 followers, a podcast, or a blog of your own, reach out and let me know your interest.

Better Know a Team: Villanova

Last Year’s Record: 18-16 (10-10)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 41 (31)
KenPom: 20 (51)

‘Nova needs less facepalming and better coaching from this man.

Coach: Kyle Neptune, 3rd Season
Traditionally, college basketball coaches got 4 years before the seat got hot, just enough time for a recruiting class to go through a full cycle. Even in the “one-and-done” era, since the 2006 rule change prohibited the top players from going straight outta HS to the NBA, most players would stay and develop for 2-4 years. In the year of our lord 2024, that traditional cycle has been flipped on its head. With the NCAA instituting the transfer portal, allowing 1 free transfer and now unlimited free transfers, the NIL boom and the bonus COVID year, the last few years made it easier than ever to turn a team around quickly. We saw it at places like ISU and KSU and Alabama, where coaches TJ Otzelberger, Jerome “cupcake lover” Tang and Nate “Making ‘bama a Basketball School” Oats promptly turned their teams around, and in the case of Oats and Otzelberger, turned their teams into perennial top-15 programs.

And then there’s Kyle Neptune. Kyle took over a team coming off a Final Four berth. Of course that team lost Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, as well as some role players and saw Justin Moore miss most of Neptune’s first year with injury. However, in Year 1 it’s undeniable that Neptune was left with a solid roster, and of course he was well-educated in the ways of Jay, serving under him as an assistant. In year 1 he returned Eric Dixon, Caleb Daniels (14 ppg that season), Brandon Slater, Justin Moore, Jordan Longino, and benefited from Jay Wright’s recruitment of Cam Whitmore and Mark Armstrong. That team went 17-17 (10-10), and Neptune mostly got a pass. The Moore injury left him without a real PG, and Jay’s late retirement left Neptune behind the 8-ball in the portal. Additionally, Nova’s NIL was not yet up to snuff. But even as Neptune got some grace from the fanbase, one couldn’t help but wonder “would Jay have made the tournament this year?”

Year 2 saw the return of Justine Moore. Also returning were Eric Dixon, Brendan Hausen, and Jordan Longino. Nova upped its NIL game, and Neptune got with the times and hit the portal…hard. Villanova snagged the #10 player in the portal per 247 Sports, Tyler Burton. They also added the #28 transfer, big athletic guard TJ Bamba, and wing man Hakim Hart, the #29 ranked transfer in 2023. They also added Lance Ware…

That was good for the 5th ranked transfer class in the country per 247 Sports. Expectations were high on the main line. Certainly on paper last season’s ‘nova squad was a tournament team. The coaches picked them 4th in the league (those same coaches also picked UConn 3rd, and we know how that turned out). But it wasn’t meant to be. The highly-touted newcomers failed to integrate into the roster, with only Bamba scoring double-digits (10.8 ppg), Justin Moore was not the old Justin Moore, and Mark Armstrong struggled at the point. About the only player who lived up to expectations was steady Eddie, Eric Dixon. The once proud program limped to an 18-16 (10-10) record, reaching rock bottom early in the year, going 0-3 vs. Penn, the other SJU and Drexel to finish 6th in the Philly Big 5—a statement that will never not be funny. Years from now we can have a college basketball/Big East bar trivia night and one of the questions should absolutely be “following the expansion to 6 teams, what was the first school to finish 6th in the Philly Big 5?”

However, the season was not without some high points. Villanova looked like the team we all thought they were in the Battle 4 Atlantis, knocking off Texas Tech, UNC and Memphis en route to winning the tournament. They won the ugliest game of basketball ever played in the shot clock era over Maryland at the Finn, 57-40(!). Peanut Chews sponsored that game for some reason, and I hope they didn’t pay too much. They damn near beat Kansas State in the Little Apple, forcing overtime and losing by 1 in a see-saw battle, they beat UCLA by 9 at Wells Fargo, beat Creighton in OT at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, and they got an always-tough road win at the Dunk vs. Providence (it’ll always be the Dunk to me goddamnit)

But there were plenty of embarrassments as well, such as losing at the Finn vs. St. John’s, getting run off the floor at MSG by SJU, losing in double OT to a bottom-dwelling Butler team, barely beating 3-29 DePaul in the BET, and ultimately getting bounced in the first round of the NIT by VCU. Such were the depths of this humiliation that there were rumblings that Neptune should be fired among the fan base, with some going as far as to threaten that their parents would not donate on the next 1842 day, forever begging the question what IS life, yo?

Of course Neptune wasn’t fired, it didn’t seem like the school ever gave serious consideration to that, and Neptune headed back to the portal to restock his squad once again. But in year two it really couldn’t be denied: Jay would’ve had that team in the tournament easily, and maybe even made some noise in March. All of that background is simply to say this is a big year for Kyle. In this day and age 4 years is no longer a guarantee, especially not at a proud program like Villanova. For Villanova, this season is all about Kyle Neptune. He once again has enough talent to return to the tournament, its time he delivers.

Rotation:

PG: Jhamir Brickus, (Gr.) “ 5’11” ” (OK buddy!) 188 lbs.
SG: Wooga Poplar, (Sr.) 6’5” 197 lbs.
SF: Jordan Longino, (Sr.) 6’5” 215 lbs.
PF: Eric Dixon, (Gr.) 6’8” 265 lbs.
C: Enoch Boakye, (Sr.) 6’11” 255 lbs.

Bench:
Tyler Perkins, (So.), 6’4” 212 lbs. (G)
Josiah Moseley, (Fr.) 6’6” 205 lbs. (F)
Nnanna Njoku, (R-Jr.) 6’9” 245 lbs. (C)
Kris Parker, (R-Fr.) 6’9” 201 lbs. (G/F)
Matthew Hodge, (Fr.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)
Malcolm Thomas, (Fr.) 6’8” 218 lbs. (F)
Jordann Dumont (R-Fr.) 6’8” 220 lbs. (F)
Sasha Gavalyugov, (Fr) 6’2” 175 lbs (G)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/12, 5pm, CBS Sports Network - at the other SJU
11/19, 7pm, Peacock - vs. UPenn (at the Finn)
12/7, TBD, TBD - Big Five Classic vs. Drexel, La Salle or Temple

That’s it. Villanova just needs to avoid coming in 6th in the Big 5 again, for the good of the conference.

Ok, ok, they also have:
11/15, 5pm, TBD - vs. UVa (N) - a game that has lost some luster following Tony Bennett’s shock retirement.
11/24, 1pm, ESPN - vs. Maryland (N) - Willard back in the Rock!
12/3, 6:30pm, FS1 - vs. Cincinnati (BIG East-Big12 Battle)

All in all a very, very soft schedule, leaving ‘nova little margin for error in the non-conference. Even looking backwards through the lens of “well they expected UVa to be good,” that’s still only 3 high majors, one of which is mediocre, at best.

What’s Old: Eric Dixon. Literally. Guy is so old he’s chasing early bird specials at the local Applebee’s. Of course, despite his advanced age, Dixon remains a stellar collegiate ball player, making up for his lack of size and lack of athleticism with crafty post moves and precision shooting.

He’s been one of the best players in the conference the last 2 years. In that span he averaged 31.1 minutes across 68 games, starting all of them, posting 16/6.6/1.5 on 47.8/35.9/82.9, for an eFG of 54%. He adds solid defense with a D-Rating of 100.9 and a DBPM of 1.7. Barring catastrophe, he’s a lock to be First Team All Big East, as he was voted preseason, and if ‘nova plays better than it has the last 2 seasons, he’s a dark horse for Big East Player of the Year. The fact that Dixon is a dark horse for conference player of the year is less about his talents than it is about the insane depth of high end talent in the league.

Joining Dixon in the backcourt, the only other holdover from the Jay Wright roster left on the main line (and frankly, it’s amazing there’s still 2 holdovers 3 seasons removed from Jay’s tenure) is senior Jordan Longino. Longino is a local product out of Germantown Academy. He was a 4* recruit, ranked 53 in the 247 Composite in the class of 2021. I usually don’t mention the high school pedigree of experienced college players, but in this case it’s worth reference because Longino has never quite lived up to that billing. He was lightly used his freshman year, but the last two seasons he’s played 54 games, notching 13 starts, posting 5.8/2.3/1.3 on 40.4/28.7/79.2. It’s worth noting his shooting did improve to 32.5% from deep and 83.3% from the stripe.

While several of the guys ahead of him in the rotation last year failed, fans certainly had loftier expectations for Longino, and his inability to step up exacerbated Villanova’s problems last season. Part of his problem is that he settles for perimeter shots too often, taking 48.1% of his FGA from deep last year per CBB Analytics, including 32.9% in above the break 3’s, on which he shot only 29.6%. He was an impressive 40% on corner 3’s, but he attempted less than 1 per game, 15.2% of his total shot attempts. His best bet is getting into the paint, where he shoots 52.9%, 90th percentile, but again only took 10.4% of his shots from that range. His at the rim FG% was 54%, only the 35th percentile. In other words, his best bet is to slash or cut and pull up for a mid-range in the paint, or even outside the paint, where he shoots 40%, 69th percentile. Villanova is going to need Longino to step up this year if they are to return to the tournament.

The last two returners are Nnanna Njoku and Jordann Dumont. Across 3 seasons on the main line Njoku has played in 24 games, averaging 3.6 mpg, and 0.8 ppg. He may carve out a small role this year, but let’s just move on.

Dumont was a 0* recruit in the class of 2023. It is unlikely he’ll be a contributor this year.

THAT’s the “5 foot, 11 inch” Brickus giving up “1 inch” to the 6-foot tall Foster Loyer

What’s New: Graduate Point Guard Jhamir Brickus makes the move from Philadelphia—La Salle to be exact—to suburbs to be the starting point guard for the Wildcats. Brickus had a breakout season for La Salle starting 33 games, playing 36.6 mpg, and posting 13.9/3.5/4.8, shooting 43.3/40/85.7. That free throw shooting certainly fits the ‘nova mold, and 40% from deep fits anyone’s mold, particularly at a decent 4.5 3-pt attempts per game. Add in almost 5 APG, and it’s clear to see why ‘nova is high on Brickus orchestrating this offense. No Villanova player has put up 4+ assists per game since Collin Gillespie put up 4.6 in 2020-21. The last 2 season’s ‘nova has sorely lacked a floor general. The experienced Brickus gives them just that.

Not Jhamir Brickus, but maybe ‘nova should retire the powder blue jerseys this year…

The downside? Clearly his defense. Let’s start with the physical limitations, Brickus is listed at a VERY generous 5’11”, but I heard the hosts of a prominent ‘nova podcast recently joking that he was really 5’8”. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. He’s also not the thickest or strongest looking guard. Just running down the list of team’s starting guards, the only other guards 6’ or less is 5’10” Sean Jones, who may or may not make it back from injury this season and shares the back court with 3 dudes 6’3” or taller, the 6’0” Deivon Smith, who shares a back court with guys that are 6’6”, 6’4”, & 6’4”, and Xavier PG tandem Dayvion McKnight and Trey Green who both come in at 6’0”.

Advanced metrics do not paint a better picture. With Brickus on the court, La So all of that leaves Villanova with some defensive shortcomings in the back court. He posted a 111.4 D-Rating last season, and is a career 109.3, his DBPM was -.4 last season, and -.03 for his career, including 3 straight negative DBPM figures. With Brickus off the floor, LaSalle posted a defense rating of 101.9, compared to 111.5 with Brickus on the floor. Given the size and quality of the guards in the Big East versus the A-10, Villanova will have to scheme a defense to mask some of Brickus’ deficiencies. At the very least the esteemed Ken Pomeroy believes in the Villanova defense, ranking the Wildcats the 14th best defense in the country, and even Torvik, who is not quite as high on Villanova as KenPom has the ‘cats clocking in as the 30th best defense preseason. Even in last year’s disappointing campaign Villanova’s defense was solid, ranking 10th in Torvik’s ADJDE and 13th in KenPom’s AdjD. Going back to his year at Fordham, his defense ranked 41st. Obviously those teams were not without their defensive flaws, so it’s entirely possible the much-maligned Neptune coaches his way around Brickus’ defensive limitations.

Brickus is joined in a surprisingly thin backcourt by Miami (Fl) transfer, Senior Wooga Poplar, 247 Sports’ 17th ranked transfer this year. On top of being a first-team member of any All-Name Team, Poplar is a proven commodity at the high major level, playing in and starting 29 games last season for Jim Larranaga’s disappointing Hurricanes squad, posting 13.1/4.8/2.1 on 42.6/38.5/86.4 shooting in 31 mpg. He was also a starter 2 years ago during Miami’s Final Four run, posting 8.4/3.3/1.5 in 23.5 minutes, on 47/37.5/86.7. His career eFG is 52.7%. Poplar’s size, strength and length also give him a pretty high floor on the defensive end, and he’s a really good on-ball defender. But the real headline here is his offense. Poplar projects to be ‘nova’s second leading scorer behind Eric Dixon. When you look for a “big 3” of scorers, it’s quite possible the Wildcats have theirs in Brickus, Poplar and Dixon.

As mentioned, the ‘nova backcourt is surprisingly thin, and is rounded out by sophomore transfer Tyler Perkins and Bulgarian freshman Aleksander Gavalyugov. Like his backcourt mate Brickus, Perkins joins the Wildcats from a fellow Big 5 school, in this case UPenn. Perkins was excellent as a freshman for the Quakers, and in most years could’ve been the Ivy League Rookie of the year had it not been for now-Georgetown guard Malik Mack’s excellent year at Harvard. Perkins posted 13.7/5.3/1.9 on 39.1/34.7/76.5, for an eFG of 46.6% in 29.8 mpg. However, as we saw last year at St. John’s, even experienced Ivy Legue ballers can struggle to make the jump to the BIG East. It took Jordan Dingle and Chris Ledlum 2/3rds of a season to really hit their stride. While Perkins will definitely have a role in the backcourt this season, I don’t think I would expect a high-level of production from him. However, he is a very nice building block piece for the next 2 seasons.

Gavalyugov is a 6’2” freshman out of Bulgaria. An NBA Gloval Academy product, Gavalyugov his a really good shooter, and comes in with substantial U18 Eurobasket experience. He’s also very crafty in the lane, using a variety of moves and spins to shake opponents free. He only needs a little bit of space to get his shot up, and has excellent quickness. At least one member of r/NBA_Draft thinks he’s a potential NBA player one day, and someone to keep an eye on. If his shooting is as advertised, he’ll definitely be able to carve out a role, but the learning curve can be steep with Euros.

In the front court transfer Enoch Boakye figures to carve out his fair share of minutes, particularly if Neptune is interested in getting minutes at the 4 for Eric Dixon. Boakye was a highly-touted recruit, ranking 31st in the class of 2021. Unfortunately for Mr. Boakye he made a fatal career era by committing to play for the other Hurley at Arizona St. Boakye played 50 games across 2 seasons in Tempe, where he posted an abysmal 1.5 & 2.4, with 1.2 blocks.

Last year the journeyman center found his way to Fresno State, where he posted 7.5 & 7.7, plus 2 blocks per game. He finally started to show why he was so highly touted out of HS. Depending on just how much they can get out of Boakye, he’s either a starter at the 5 alongside Dixon’s 4, or he’s the chief back up to Dixon be it with Dixon on the bench or Dixon playing some 4. For what it’s worth, with Dixon serving a suspension for participating in the Portsmouth invitational, Boakye started and played 27 minutes at center.

The Wildcats also add Kris Parker, a redshirt freshman out of Alabama. Kris was a 4* recruit coming out of high school, good for 99th in the Class of 2023. He red-shirted for Alabama last season. Parker is a bit of a wild card here. If he lives up to his impact he could be a really nice rotation player this season. If he does not, he could be a multi-year project , and frankly Neptune might not have enough time.

The wing and front court is rounded out by freshmen Josiah Moseley, Matthew Hodge, and Malcolm Thomas. From most likely to make an impact to least likely:

Josiah Moseley is a 6’6” 205 lbs forward from Texas. He’s a 4* ranked 73rd in 247’s class of 2024 composite rankings. Moseley is likely to be the primary back up to Jordan Longino at the 3. However, if Longino should struggle, Moseley will certainly have the opportunity to earn more minutes. In Villanova’s first game—a 75-63 victory over Lafayette without Eric Dixon—Moseley was the only freshman to crack the rotation, going 17 minutes and shooting a perfect 5-5 from the field for 10 points.

Matthew Hodge is a New Jersey forward ranked 82nd in the class of 2024. The Burner Ball depth charts have him as the starter at the 4. That does not feel right to me. As mentioned, I think Villanova plays a little larger this year with Dixon 4, at times, but when they play small with Dixon at the 5, Hodge can be the guy at 4, as Longino is simply not tall enough for the 4.

Malcolm Thomas was a 3* recruit, no. 206 in the class of 2024. He’s a 6’8” forward. He’s likely to be buried on the front court depth chart, and not likely to see regular minutes.

The Optimist’s Take: Kyle Neptune realizes he’s not Jay, but he can actually coach and he finally spreads his wings and hits his coaching stride as his own man, not “Jay Wright’s assistant.” The line-up meshes quickly. What appears like it will be a tight 8-man rotation—at least early in the year (Boakye, Dixon, Longino, Poplar, Brickus, Tyler Perkins, Jsoiah Moseley and Nnanna Njoku)—stays healthy and responds to Neptune’s coaching. Guys like Aleksander Gavalyugo and Kris Parker and Matthew Hodge develop into rotation pieces as the year drags on, giving ‘nova depth when it will need it most.

If Neptune’s coaching is on point, that is an 8-man rotation that can make the tournament. This roster isn’t as talented as last year’s ‘nova roster, but it is possible they have better results.

The Hater’s Take: Nova got absolutely abused in the paint last year. They ranked in the 5th percentile in both points in the paint and 2nd chance points per game. They managed only 2.4 blocks per game, while opponents scored 25.5 paint points per game, good for 96th percentile. All stats from CBB Analytics. Opponents meanwhile were in the 96th percentile in paint points and 88th percentile in 2nd chance points. Opponents posted 4 blocks per game to ‘nova’s 2.4.

Nova did little to truly address the issue. The Wildcats brought in Enoch Boayke from Fresno State, who grabbed 7.7 boards in just 22.7 mpg, good for 13.6 per 40. He can also provide some rim protection, putting up 1.2 blocks per game last year, 2.1 per40. However, I think there is definitely concern looking at the drop-off last season, as Boakye struggled against top tier competition, watching his O-Rating plummet from 104.7 to 90.1 and is OR% fall from 12.7 to 6.0. So you have to wonder how he can handle big men at this level. He had 3 or more fouls in 15/28 games last year, meaning foul trouble can be an issue for Boayke. With the lack of experienced depth in the front court, Boakye foul trouble will be a tough blow to ‘nova.

Meanwhile the defense struggles as guys like Brickus and Perkins are overmatched, the freshmen make freshmen mistakes, and Longino continues to play poor defense. In this scenario, Villanova would find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble come March.

Fan Pulse:

Putting on a brave face. Boldly attempting to cheer on another season of Kyle Neptune, even as it seems he may be a dead man walking. Talking themselves into a 5’9” point guard leading the way in the Big East. Definitely did not donate $50,000 on 1842 this year since Neptune is still the coach.

Bottom Line: This roster is significantly less talented than last year’s ‘nova squad. 3 seasons into his coaching career and Kyle Neptune has appeared to be going in the wrong direction. Do I think Jay Wright gets this team to an 8 or 9 seed? Almost certainly. Do I trust Kyle Neptune to do the same? No. I wouldn’t trust Neptune to babysit my pet rock based on his coaching skills.

Prediction: 17-14 (8-12), 7th place