Better Know a Team: Xavier

Things suddenly got very Italian in Cincinnati. Maybe now they can make a proper spaghetti,
instead of whatever the fuck that Skyline shit is…

“Welcome to the Big East son, now stay outta my way would ya?”

Last Year’s Record: 22-12 (13-7), Round of 64. Good enough to get S**n M****r the Texas job!

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 74 (40)
KenPom: 62 (43)
EvanMiya: 86 (38)

Coach: Richard Pitino, Year 1. Welcome to the Big East son! Richard gets massively underrated as a coach, I think largely based on his tenure at Minnesota, which is a tough place to coach! But here is Richard’s history relative to program rank and pre-season KenPom rank:

Minnesota - Program Rank 69
Year - Pre-season - Final
2014 - 34 - 46
2015 - 34 - 52
2016 - 63 - 192
2017 - 71 - 37
2018 - 36 - 117
2019 - 59 - 46
2020 - 80 - 27
2021 - 30 - 62

New Mexico - Program Rank 87
2022 - 287 - 161
2023 - 138 - 66
2024 - 46 - 29
2025 - 62 - 41

So at Minnesota he beat the program rank 6 out of 8 seasons, and beat pre-season expectations 3 out of 8, which is rough. But that New Mexico tenure…out performed expectations every year, the first 2 years massively so. 3 out of 4 years finishing in the KenPom top-100, a feat that had not occurred since the 2010-11 through 2013-14 seasons, when Steve Alford posted 3 straight top- 50 squads, and handed Craig Neal a monster that finished 33rd in KenPom. Neal promptly tanked the program back to 137 in year 2, and did not get back into the top-100 until Richard’s 2nd season. Richard out-performed the program rank in his final 3 out of 4 seasons at New Mexico.

Now, there is probably some concern about that year 1 at New Mexico, and I think you could certainly see a rough first season here, relative to Xavier-level expectations. Many are predicting it. Did you know that in the KenPom era (1996-97 onward), Xavier has never finished lower than 81st?! That was way back in Year 1 of S**n M***r’s first stint, when Xavier still played in the A10. Even the much-maligned Travis Steele bottomed out at 66 in 2021. Hat tip to Three Man Weave and Will Warren for that tid bit. In other words, while I don’t expect Xavier to be good, there appears to be a legitimate floor with this program. Gun to my head, I say they post their worst season in the KenPom era this year, but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.

Roster:

Real rivalries are rare. Cherish it. And whoop their ass too.

Starters
PG: Roddie Anderson III (Sr.), 6’3” 195 lbs.
SG: Malik Messina-Moore (Sr.), 6’5” 200 lbs.
SF: Isaiah Walker (Sr.), 6’5” 205 lbs
PF: Tre Carroll (Sr.), 6’8” 235 lbs.
C: Anthony Robinson (So.), 6’10” 252 lbs.

Rotation Bench
PG All Wright (So.), 6’3”, 190 lbs.
F Gabriel Pozzato (So.), 6’7” 200 lbs.
F Filip Borovicanin (Sr.), 6’9” 227 lbs.
C Pape N’Diaye (So.), 7’0” 230 lbs.
PF Jovan Milicevic (So)., 6’10” 241 lbs.
SG Mier Ponoam (Jr.), 6’2” 200 lbs.

Bench Warmers
C Kason Westphal (Fr.), 7’0” 260 lbs.


Big Non-Conference Games:

11/10, 8:30pm, vs.Santa Clara, FS1
11/14, TBD, at Iowa, TBD

Charleston Classic
11/21, 9:00pm, vs. Georgia (N), ESPN2
11/23, 1:00pm or 3:30pm, Clemson/WVU (N), ESPN

Crosstown Shootout
12/5, 7:30pm, vs. Cincinnati, TNT + TruTV

What’s Old: Absolutely nothing! Ok, I guess we can call Roddie Anderson, III “old”, as he is returning to the Musketeers, but he did not play a single minute last season, opting to redshirt and develop behind a roster stacked with guards (Conwell, McKnight, Foster, Maddox, & Trey Green), on the premise he’d learn the offense and be a major contributor in 2025-26. Well, that offense has gone to Austin, but Anderson remains. The last we saw of Roddie Anderson III in 2023-24 he was playing 26.4 mpg for Boise State, averaging 6.5/3.0/2.4, with 1.9 TOPG and 1.2 SPG. The year prior, he posted 13.1/3.8/3.6 in 31.3 mpg for UCSD. With Boise State his O-Rating was an abysmal 87.0.

Defensively, Anderson projects much better, posting a 100.9 D-Rating at Boise, both figures per Sports-Reference. Richard’s best teams have always been his strongest defensive teams, as he made the tournament with 4 of his 5 best KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency teams, including his 2 best defenses the last 2 seasons at New Mexico, 19 last year and 23 the year before, guiding New Mexico to the NCAAT both times. Much will be asked of Anderson on that end. His size will certainly help, and it underscores one of the keys with this roster: size. Only end-of-rotation shooting guard Mier Ponoam is under 6’3”, and they have 3 front court pieces 6’10” or bigger.

What’s New: I usually run through projected starts first, but I am going to do things a little differently for Xavier. Underlying this entire roster is a tension between a senior-laden, experienced starting squad, and the sophomores who will be pushing them for minutes, and maybe even starting roles. So this will be more positionally-based.

Pushing Anderson from the bench will be all-name team member All Wright, coming to Xavier as a sophomore by way of Valparaiso. The juxtaposition between Wright and Anderson is clear, Wright is the offensive yang, to Anderson’s defensive ying. At Valpo, Wright posted 15.1/2.2/2.4 on 40.8/38.3/80.5 shooting. He took 39.7% of his shots from deep, and if I’m Pitino, that’s where I want him to stay, as his 3-point percentage was in the 77th percentile nationally per CBB Analytics. On the downside, Wright took 20% of his shots in the mid-range, where he’s only a 46th percentile shooter, and that was against MVC competition. It only gets worse the closer he gets to the rim, as in the paint he’s 31st percentile and at the rim he’s in the 29th percentile. Defensively, Valpo was a full point worse per 100 possessions with All Right on the floor, and they were not a particularly good defensive team to begin with. Wright individually posted a 111.8 D-Rating. If Anderson gets the majority of the minutes it’ll be because Wright is struggling to even be serviceable defensively.

Projected to start at the 2 is Malik Messina-Moore, a 6’5” guard. The senior started his career and played 2 years at Pepperdine, before transferring to Montana last season, where he posted a 12.6/3.2/2.4 state line on 45.6/40.9/82.2 shooting. Messina-Moore is an absolute sniper. He took 51.6% of his shots from deep last season for the Grizzlies, most (44%) from above the break. His 40.9 3-pt percentage was 90th percentile, per CBB Analytics. His elite 3-pt shooting led him to a healthy 56.4 eFG% and 59.7 TS%.

Messina-Moore also grades out as an average defender. He was the tied for best on his team in CBB analytics’ DRAPM metric, improving the team’s defensive efficiency by 0.4 points per 100 possessions above an average defender. Obviously nothing to write home about, but with his size and Richard’s system, he could improve defensively. If he does, he’s a great 3&D piece for X, capable of playing the 2 & the 3. It’s also important to note that Messina-Moore played roughly 1/3rd of his minutes at the 4, and Montana even played 5 guards ranging from 6’1” to Messina-Moore at 6’5” at times. Which is to say he was frequently playing out-of-position, and against larger players–even in the Big Sky–which certainly impacted his defensive output. Moving him to his more natural 2/3 role should improve his defense before accounting for coaching or system.

Pushing Messina-Moore, in addition to All Wright, is junior guard Mier Panoam. Panoam is a junior, who played only 9 games at Tulane as a freshman, before starting in 33 games for North Dakota last last season, logging 13.0/5.8/2.4 in 28.2 minutes, on 45.5/22.2/71.1 shooting. He was North Dakota’s 2nd leading scorer last season behind top-100 transfer Treysen Eaglestaff, who landed at WVU. Panoam entered the portal with far less hype. If you appreciate “all-in-one” metrics, CBB Analytics’ RAPM actually had Panoam as the best player on the team, despite scoring 5 ppg less than Eaglestaff. Where Panoam really outshone Eaglestaff was rebounds per game, where he nabbed 5.8 to Eaglestaff’s 2.8, which put Panoam in the 90th percentile nationwide. All of which is to say, perhaps Richard has found a diamond in the rough with Panoam. There isn’t much to love here defensively. So let’s just move on.

Projected at the 3 is Isaiah Walker Isaiah Walker transfers in from Belmont. After playing just 9 mpg as a freshman, Walker started 23 games and logged 27.7 mpg. Last season he started all 33 games, and logged 33 mpg, posting 10.8/5.8/2.2 on 46.4/32.7/80.2 shooting. According to CBB analytics, walker is a dead-average defender…0.0 in DRAPM. While Walker is a common name, this particular Walker may be familiar to older Xavier fans, as he’s the son of Tyrice walker, who played 20 mpg in 110 games for the Musketeers in the early 90’s.

Competing with Walker at the 3…eventually…is Gabriel Pozzato, the most hyped of the additions. Italian head coach, Italian star. Match made in heaven. If healthy, Pozzato would be the starter, and likely will be once healthy. As a freshman in the MVC last season Pozzato posted 14.9/4.4/1.3 on 44.7/31.7/70.5. Pozzato has the ability to create his own shot, and while not the quickest player on the floor, he makes up for it with athleticism and craftiness in the paint. He threw down some THUNDEROUS dunks in the Valley last season, earning All-Freshman honors in the process. Defensively his length and versatility make him a strong option, capable of guarding many types of players. The downside: Pozzato is injury-prone. He missed a month with Evansville last season with a back injury, and is already suffering from a knee injury that is likely to keep him out during OOC play. The good news, he’s an absolute workhorse, and last year’s back injury didn’t slow him down at all. After 1 ramp-up game, he played 37+ minutes in 11 of 12 remaining regular season games, logging a full 40 minutes in 8 of those games. 

At the 4, take your pick between seniors Tre Carroll and Filip Borovicanin. Borovicanin follows Richard from New Mexico, where he logged 22.7 mpg in 29 starts and 35 games. He posted 5.9/4.6/1.1 last season on 41.3/31.7/64.6 shooting. While that certainly doesn’t light the world on fire, Borovicanin provides outstanding defense, posting a 99 D-Rating, 3.0 DBPM, and a team-leading 3.4 DRAPM. His familiarity with Pitino’s defensive system, and the lack of other experienced, elite defenders, will make Borovicanin invaluable, and perhaps the favorite to start at the 4.

Carroll transfers in from FAU as a senior. If you do the math, he was a freshman on FAU’s final four team in 2022-23, but he logged just 5.7 mpg in 18 games that season. Still, the experience of being on a high-level team doesn’t hurt. Carroll was similarly lightly used as a sophomore, before being a contributor last season. As a junior he posted 12.2/5.2/1.6 with 1 bpg in 22.1 mpg. He shot 52.3/38.8/75.5. He provides the offense from the 4, and given his shooting ability, can probably play the 3 with Borovicanin providing the defense from the 4, provided you have additional shooters like All Wright and Messina-Moore in the backcourt. Carroll also isn’t terrible defensively, and if he can hold his own on that end, he’ll log plenty of minutes as a 3/undersized stretch-4.

This guy can ball, trust me

I expect Pozzato to pick up some minutes at the 4 when healthy, along with fellow Euro import Jovan Milicevic, who, like Borovicanin, follows Richard from New Mexico. Unlike Borovicanin, Milicevic is a sophomore, so he’ll have time to grow and develop. Last season he posted 3.8/2.0/0.4 on 48.4/45.8/57.9 shooting in 11.8 mpg. As should be clear, Milicevic is a sniper. The sample size isn’t huge (27/59), but I think it’s entirely reasonable to expect him to shoot above 35% from deep in the Big East on higher volume. This gives him the ability to stretch the floor from the 4 as well. Also similar to Borvicanin, Milicevic is a solid defender in his limited usage, posting a 100.4 D-Rating and 2.0 DBPM per Sports Reference. While note elite, he’s a solid rebounder with good court awareness under the basket. He knows how to use his body to obtain and maintain good rebounding position. 

Milicevic also seemed to improve as the year went on, earning more minutes down the stretch in the regular season, and posting his best performance in a tough road loss at SDSU, scoring 16, grabbing 4 boards, adding a steal on 6/9 shooting, 4/6 from deep, in 25 minutes. That game is indicative of the impact he can have when he’s on. However, he’ll need to find more consistency as a sophomore, having now had a year to adjust to the college game. Frankly, for my money, if he can find that consistency, he’s the most tantalizing underclassman on this roster outside Pozzato. He may have even logged more minutes fast last year, but for a crowded front-court that included the aforementioned Borovicanin, Mustapha Amzil, and Nelly Junior Joseph (although Joseph was exclusively at the 5, that prevented Richard from deploying Borovicanin or Milicevic at the 5 to open up minutes).

Rounding out the starting front court at the 5 will actually be 2 sophomores competing for minutes. First up, the likely starter Anthony Robinson who comes to Xavier by way of Virginia. Things obviously did not go well in Virginia last year, following the surprise fall retirement of Tony Bennett, and elevation of Ron Sanchez to head coach (a train wreck I saw first hand when SJU played UVa at Baha Mar). Robinson was not a highly touted prospect, just a 3 star out of high school, but did enough last season to earn a fourth star as a transfer, per 247, where he was rated 156th in the portal. Robinson is big, strong and athletic, as evidenced by this block of Cooper Flagg last season. If that doesn’t get you excited for him, I don’t know what will.

One of these guys is making $15.5M this year, and the other got a one-way ticket to Cincinnati…

Highlights aside, Robinson posted just 3.6/2.4/0.1 on 72.1/0.0/62.0 shooting in 9.2 mpg, with 0.6 blocks per game for good measure. Like many freshmen, he saw improvement as the season wore on, playing 14+ minutes in 10 of the final 13 games, posting 5.7/3.6/0.2 with 0.6 blocks per game in 13.7 mpg, and a gaudy 73.5% FG rate. The caveat here is that on the season he only took 43 shots, and 37 of them came at the rim per CBB Analytics. He was 50% in his 6 attempts from farther out in the paint, a small sample size.

Defensively, Robinson should be a very good rim protector. He posted 2.5 blocks per 40 last season,a block rate of 7.4% per CBB Analytics, good for the 96th percentile nationwide, and should see some improvement there as a sophomore given his size and strength. He posted a 104.1 D-Rating, and 1.8 DBPM on a team that was abysmal defensively (144th).

Backing up Robinson is another sophomore, Pape N’Diaye. N’Diaye provides a nice change of pace from the strong, stout Robinson. In contrast, N’Diaye is long, lean and athletic, having 2 inches on Robinson, but giving up over 20 lbs. in weight to Robinson. Pape N’Diaye has a chance to be the best rim protector in the conference. On UNLV last year he posted a 10.3% block rate, good for 99th percentile per CBB Analytics. In just 13.1 mpg, N’Diaye posted 2.7/3.7/0.1 and 1.1 blocks per game on 61.7/42.9/76.9 shooting. While the 3-point shooting is a a very small sample size (3/7), the FT percentage indicates that maybe he can be a stretch-5 type and shoot in that 35% range.

Defensively, in addition to the rim protection, you have to love N’Diaye’s rebounding. He posted a defensive rebounding rate of 21.8%, good for 95th percentile nationwide. He should be an excellent rim protector and rim runner, with the potential to be a stretch-5. It gives Richard options at the 5.

The last recruit is freshman Kason Westphal, a 7-foot center coming from Overtime Elite affiliate Fear of God Athletics in Florida. The unheralded recruit likely won’t see much time this season behind Robinson and N’Diaye, but could develop into a nice depth piece down the line.

The Optimist’s Take: Richard quickly realizes that not only is playing the sophomores (and junior Panoam) the best play long-term, it’s also the best play short term, as the sophomores became quickly ready to play at a Big East level. Richard’s coaching, and the defense plays at a very high level, anchored by Robinson/N’Diaye and Borovicanin in the front court. Pozzato gets health before the calendar turns to 2026, and is peaking come Big East play. The shooting translates up, N’Diaye turns into the stretch 5 he has the potential to be, and you have a very strong 5-out lineup of Wright, Messina-Moore, Pozzato, Milicevic and N’Diaye, that can still hold its own defensively, with the ability to rotate in guys like Borovicanin, Robinson and Walker for match-ups/defense. This scenario could see them into the tournament, I do think they have that ceiling. I think there’s a ton of upside in some of these younger players, if realized, has them as a very good team

The Hater’s Take: Richard insists on sticking with experience. The poor shooting from guys like  Panoam, Borovicanin, All Wright, and Walker proves problematic. Pozzato’s injury lingers, keeping him out longer than expected, and impacting his play upon his return. The perimeter defense is atrocious, and opposing guards feast against Wright, Panoam, Walker and Messina-Moore, despite solid interior defense. The bombing results in them posting their worst KenPom finish in the history of the metric. This team’s floor is probably dead last, with a ceiling of a fringe NCAAT team. The swing is truly that big for them.

Talk about an upgrade.

Gross.

Fan Pulse: Bone-gee-or-no. Loyal to the soil. Excited for the Pitino, Jr. era, cautiously optimistic, but understanding this could be a transition year with the hope of developing and retaining much of the sophomore transfer class.

Bottom Line: I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I came in to my deep dive pretty down on this team and roster, but on closer inspection, I do see a lot of upside in the younger guys, particularly in the front court (Milicevic, N’Diaye and Robinson). It’s very clear to see how Richard went about constructing this roster, and while there are some inefficient pieces, it’s clear there was an eye towards advanced efficiency metrics, and a coherent philosophy: shooting at all positions, positional size, and interior defense. For my money, I’m predicting them 8th, and to maintain their top-81 KenPom streak, but I wouldn’t be shocked as high as 4th, or as low as 11th.

Prediction: 17-14 (8-12), 8th Place