Better Know a Team: Villanova

There’s a new-old sheriff in town, how big of a difference does it make in year 1?

Good news ‘nova fans…the trophies managed to survive the Neptune error.

Last Year’s Record: 21-15 (11-9), Crown Semifinalists under interim head coach Mike Nardi, now an assistant at UConn

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 50 (53)
KenPom: 50 (56)
EvanMiya: 60 (47)

Coach: Kevin Willard, Year 1. Welcome back to the Big East Coach Willard. If you somehow found this obscure blog, despite only being a Big East fan for less than 3 years, you may not know that Kevin Willard spent 12 seasons at Seton Hall, a tenure remembered fondly by Hall fans. Ironically enough, I had half fans tell me that despite making the NCAAT in 5 of the last 7 seasons of Willard’s tenure (with one of the “misses” being the COVID-canceled tournament), that it was time to move on from Willard, as he had won just one NCAAT game in his 5 appearances. Nevermind that his best team was entering the tournament 20th in KenPom in 2020, and was a projected 3-seed in BracketMatrix, a favorite to make the Sweet 16 before the tournament was canceled.

The new sheriff. Bald is beautiful, or so I’ve been told.

Willard was consistent at Seton Hall. The youngins might not remember this, but pre-portal, it took time to build a program up. Willard made his first tournament at Hall as a 6-seed in 2016, and had Hall in the tournament every year except the aforementioned canceled 2020 tournament, and the weird, fan-less 2020-21 season. At Maryland, he had the Terps in the NCAAT 2 out of 3 seasons, and finally breakthrough to the second weekend with the 4th-seeded Terps last season.

All of this is to say that Willard’s teams tend to have a very-high floor. Since making that NCAAT in 2016, no Willard-coached team has finished lower than 62 in KenPom. For Willard, it all starts with defense. Last year’s Maryland squad, Willard’s best overall team per KenPom, ranked 7th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom, giving up just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd best ever for a Willard Team. His best overall team at Seton Hall–the 2020 squad that got shafted by COVID–was 25th in defense per KenPom, 92.7. His first Hall tournament team was 10th in defense, 92.9 points per 100 possessions. Even Willard’s non-NCAAT teams are frequently great defensive units. Willard’s 2nd year at Maryland the team was 14th in defensive efficiency per KenPom, his first year at Hall they were 10th. Even his last year at Iona, he posted a 94.0 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom, good for 39th.

That’s where the floor comes from with Willard: defense. Then, when his teams click offensively, it creates special seasons, as it did in 2024-25 with Maryland (23rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per KenPom), 2019-20 at Hall (29th in AdjO), and 2017-18 at Hall (17th in AdjO).

That floor is a welcome change from Willard’s predecessor on the Main Line, Kyle Neptune, a man who seemed to underachieve the talent level of his roster every season, and who will eventually be known remembered by ‘nova fans as “that guy after Wright, but before Willard.”

Roster:

This dude can shoot…

Starters
PG: Acaden Lewis (Fr.), 6’2” 180 lbs.
SG: Devin Askew (Gr.), 6’5” 195 lbs.
SF: Tyler Perkins (Jr.), 6’4” 212 lbs.
PF: Matthew Hodge (R-Fr.), 6’8” 220 lbs.
C: Duke Brennan (Sr.), 6’10” 250 lbs.

Rotation Bench
SG Bryce Lindsay (R-So.), 6’3” 194 lbs.
G/F Zion Stanford (Jr.), 6’6” 205 lbs.
PF Tafara Gapare (Sr.), 6’9” 215 lbs.
F Malachi Palmer (So.), 6’6” 212 lbs.
C Braden Pierce (R-So.), 7’0” 245 lbs.

Bench Warmers
PG Chris Jeffrey (Fr.) 6’3” 200 lbs.
F Malcolm Flaggs (R-So.) 6’6” 200 lbs.
C Nico Onyekwere (Fr.) 7’1” 240 lbs.

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/3, 9:30pm, v. BYU (N), TNT
12/9, 6:30pm, at Michigan, FS1
12/13, 4:30pm, v. Pitt, TNT + truTV
12/19, 8pm, v. Wisconsin (N), Fox (technically N, but played in Milwaukee)

What’s Old: Tyler Perkins headlines the holdovers from the Neptune era. Perkins transferred to ‘nova from cross-town Big 5 rival UPenn for last season, and appeared in every game, and started 3, for Kyle Neptune’s squad. He posted 6.3/4.3/1.0 with 1.1 spg in 25.8 mpg. He shot 40.0/35.2/72.0. After a year of adjusting to Big East play, Perkins could breakout in a big way as the likely star of this Wildcats roster. CBB Analytics’ RAPM backs this up, giving Perkins a 6.5 RAPM, good for 98th percentile, and the highest on last year’s ‘nova squad (yes, higher than Eric Dixon’s 5.5). The fact that he did not start and log more minutes for a team that relied heavily on the inefficient Wooga Popular, the stunningly mediocre Jordan Longino, and under-sized defensive abomination Jhamir Brickus is an indictment of Neptune, and indicative of why he’s not here anymore.

Perkins has a solid shot diet, posting a 79% 3 + rim rate, good for 71st percentile. While you generally want to see guys a touch higher, Perkins thrives in the mid range where he posts a 51.8% FG percentage, so you can live with the mid-range game from him, especially when considering that driving is not his forte, posting a 55.9 FG% at the rim, 29th percentile. In other words, you want him working on the perimeter and mid-range, when available.

Defensively he’s long and athletic, and does an excellent job staying in front of guys. He uses his length to clog lanes, landing him 1.1 steals per game. He’s also an effective rebounder, albeit far from elite, snagging 3.1 defensive rebounds per game, good for 73rd percentile per CBB Analytics. CBB Analytics’ DRAPM supports his defensive game as well, as he’s 3.0 points per 100 possessions better than an average defender, good for 97th percentile.

The only other returner is Belgium import Matthew Hodge. There was a fair bit of hype around Hodge last preseason, and the NCAA’s denial of his eligibility last season was viewed as a blow to the Wildcats. He was able to practice with the team last season, so he should have somewhat adjusted to the college game. Hodge should be a strong defender, with the length to be a problem on that end. Offensively, he’s capable of draining spot-up 3’s. Just how much Hodge can contribute on both ends will go a long way to determining how far up the standings this ‘nova squad can climb.

What’s New: 

Let’s start at the 1, with top-50 4-star freshman Acaden Lewis. With Askew already battling injury, Lewis is a shoe-in to begin the season as the starting 1, and if he plays well, it’s not likely that he gives up that role (which could see log significant minutes at the 2 when he returns). Offensively, Lewis certainly has the talents to make a big impact. He’s a great shooter, and has a true inside-out game. If there’s one area for concern, it’s whether the freshman can be a true lead guard, and make those around him better. Lewis has proven to be a score-first PG in his EYBL and HS play, and the ability to be a playmaker for the others frequently only comes with experience. Defensively, he grades out as a solid rebounder, despite likely being closer to 6’0” than his listed 6’2”, and has the length and coordination to be a ball-hawk and lane-clogger.

If your PG looks like this, congrats on your Crown invite.

Lewis will be splitting duties with Devin Askew, a senior transferring in from Long Beach State, from the Big West to the Big East. I have no clue if it’s true or not, but I’m going to claim he’s the first player in the history of the sport to transfer from the Big West to the Big East. It’s a shame–and honestly a bit surprising given his career trajectory–that he never played in the Big South. As to that career, his arrival at Villanova marks what will presumably be the end of a long, and not at all storied career. That career started as an elite prospect, ranked 32 in the 247 Sports Composite in the class of…wait for it…2020!!!!! He committed to Coach Cal out of high school. After a mediocre freshman year he transferred to Texas to play for then head-coach Chris Beard, where he struggled to contribute. Afterwards it was off to Cal for 2 injury-plagued years, albeit with some flashes shown in the 13 games he played his first year at Cal. After appearing in just 19 games across 2 seasons at Cal, Askew transferred to LBSU for year 5.

First, the positive…he has experience? Ok, ok, that’s not the only positive…he also, finally, played a full season for the first time since his sophomore campaign at Texas. Ok, ok, there’s still more to like, I guess…Askew was an absolute bucket at LBSU, posting 18.9/4.6/4.5 on 40.1/37.6/88.6 shooting, in 36 mpg. The guy can shoot. However, he’s a wildly inefficient scorer, posting an eFG of just 46.4% at LBSU last season, which puts him in the 29th percentile per CBB Analytics. One reason? He’s absolutely atrocious at the rim, shooting just 50% (17th percentile)…against Big West defenders. It’s not going to get easier for him there against Big East defenders. He also loves the mid-range, taking 24.6% of his shots there. Unlike teammate Perkins, Askew is not great in the mid-range, shooting just 44.7%, nor does he boast the 3 + rim attempt rate of Perkins, ranking in the 8th percentile in that category, taking just 53.1% of his shots from deep or at the rim.

If he could improve his shot diet, and take more 3’s and less mid-range shots, there could be room for improvement, but he’s also entering his 6th year of college, so maybe he just is what is. And what is he? He’s an analytical nightmare, and not really suited for the modern game offensively, and likely not suited for Big East play.

On the other end, it doesn’t get better…LBSU were 8 points per 100 possessions WORSE defensively with Askew on the floor. That is really bad considering it doesn’t account for opponent quality, and the Big West isn’t exactly a murderer’s row. For a coach that’s always been defense-first, it’s shocking to see him bring in a poor defender like Askew.

All of this is captured analytically in CBB’s RAPM, which attempts to measure a player’s impact on his team’s performance. Offensively Askew is -1.4 points per 100 possessions worse than an average D1 player (19th percentile), defensively he’s -2.5 pp100p worse than an average D1 defender (5th percentile), for a net total of -3.8 RAPM, putting him in the 5th percentile.

From the worst addition–in my humble opinion–to arguably the best addition, sophomore guard Bryce Lindsay out of James Madison. Lindsay is an elite scoring option, and along with Perkins, should be the keys to the offense. Lindsay was inexplicably ranked 283rd in 247 Sports’ transfer rankings, underscoring the trouble with relying too heavily on such rankings. He’s the projected to have the 18th best OBPR per Evan Miya, one spot below Langston Love, and one spot above Owen Freeman, both of whom get far more love from the subjective rankings.

Lindsay is an offensive dynamo, and that OBPR ranking may even undersell him a bit. His ORAPM was in the 86th percentile last season, per CBB Analytics. At JMU he posted 13.4/2.8/2.2 in 29.5 mpg on 45.5/40.8/85.4 shooting. He is an ELITE 3-point shooter, and that talent should absolutely translate up to the Big East. He shot 46.2% in 2 games vs. tier A competition last season per KenPom, including a 5-8 performance against UC San Diego, who was a top-30 defense in the country last season. He was slightly weaker in a 4-game sample size vs. Tiers A&B per KenPom, going 11-31 (35.5%) in those games. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of those small samples, and I expect him to shoot in the 38-40% range for the Wildcats. He has a metrically sound shot diet, ranking in the 89th percentile in Rim + 3 rate, and taking just 8% of his shots (49th percentile) from the mid-range. The lone downside offensively, Lindsay will struggle to score at the rim, as he shot just 59.3% at the rim against mostly Sun Belt frontcourts, and only took 18% of his shots (21st percentile) at the rim. However, Lindsay and Perkins should form an elite perimeter duo.

Defensively, Lindsay is bang-average, posting a 0.3 points per 100 possessions better than an average defender according to CBB Analytics’ DRAPM. In Willard’s system, he should provide adequate perimeter defense. He certainly has the quickness and athleticism to keep guards in front of him.

The starting center role will be filled by senior Duke Brennan, a 6’10” senior from Grand Canyon. Brennan started his career at Arizona State, where he was a bench Big Man for Bobby fucking Hurley, playing 9 mpg across 36 games. The last 2 seasons he played at GCU, starting all 65 games in which he appeared. Brennan blossomed at GCU, posting 10.4/9.2/0.5 last season on 64.6% from the field and 65.4% from the stripe. He’s not an outside threat at all, having attempted just 3 3-pointers in his career. Despite not providing much in the way of shot blocking, posting just a 1.7% block rate and less than a block per 100 possessions, Brennan is a great defender. He uses his size well to prevent players from getting clean looks, even if he isn’t swatting many shots. He posted a D-rating of 95.9 last season with GCU, and DRAPM rates him at 2.1, good for 90th percentile.

Double-redshirt sophomore Malcolm Flaggs also joins from GCU, also making ‘nova his third school in four years. He’s followed the same career trajectory as Brennan, his HS teammate. The difference being Flaggs redshirted at ASU in 2022-23, played just 11 games in 2023-24 for the ‘lopes before an injury claimed the rest of his season and the entirety of his 2024-25 campaign, for which he took a medical redshirt. Now entering his 4th year of college, he still has 2 years of eligibility remaining after this one. He’s already suffered another injury, an achilles strain, and is expected to be out into December. Given his health issues and inexperience, I’d be surprised if Flaggs contributes much this season.

Next up we have a trio of players following Coach Willard from Maryland: Malachi Palmer, Tafara Gapare and Braden Pierce. Pierce is a 7’0” sophomore center. He redshirted year 1 at Maryland, and appeared in just 5 games last year. He’ll likely step into a slightly bigger role here as the back-up center to Duke Brennan, but that’s a role that will be 10 mpg at most, as you could see some small ball lineups with Gapare at the 5, a look Willard deployed 20% of the time at Maryland between Gapare and Julian Reese. So I don’t expect much from Pierce this season.

It should be noted here that Willard played a very short rotation last season, with just 6 guys averaging more than 11 mpg, with 3 of the “Crab Five” racking up 30+ mpg, and Reese and Miguel playing approximately 28 mpg apiece. Gapare and Palmer were not in the heavy rotation. Of the 2, Gapare logged more minutes, appearing in 32 games, logging 10.3 mpg. He posted a 3.4/1.9/0.2 line on 47.0/37.1/62.1 shooting. Where Gapare really shone was defensively, posting a 2.1 DRAPM (91st percentile) and a 93.1 D-Rating. His per-40 numbers bear out his defensive potential, as he posted 7.4 boards, 1.5 steals and 3.0 blocks per 40. Athletic and switchable, Gapare provides a versatile piece on the defensive end, and his knowledge of Willard’s system will prove invaluable in getting the defense to gel quickly.

Palmer was a true freshman for the Terps last season, and has a bit more upside. CBB’s RAPM loves Palmer, giving him a 1.2 ORAPM, 3.2 DRAPM for a 4.4 overall RAPM (94th percentile). Palmer is a big, strong wing. Not the most quick, but capable of overpowering defenders on his way to the rim. Defensively, he can guard bigger guards and hold his own against forwards, giving Willard another versatile piece with experience in the system. 

Rounding out the transfers is junior forward Zion Stanford transferring from cross-town rival Temple. Stanford had a breakout sophomore campaign, beginning the year as a starter, before losing his starting role, only to gain it back over the last 7 games of the season. Overall he posted 13.1/4.5/2.1 on 45.5/34.9/71.0 in 27.6 mpg. However, his last 6 games of the year he was dominant, posting 19.8 ppg on 38.5% shooting from deep, with 6.8 boards and 2.7 assists.  Defensively, he’s another large, athletic guard for Willard’s perimeter defense.

It will be very interesting to see how Willard lines up the backcourt and wings when fully healthy. Lewis or Askew will likely be the point, but you could see lineups with both of those guys simultaneously, and there are a ton of varied options at the 2 & 3 with Lindsay, Perkins & Stanford all more than capable of pushing for a starting role. For my money, I’d start Lindsay on the bench, as he can be a huge spark with his scoring ability.

Finally, 2 other freshmen round out the new additions. Chris Jeffrey is the more heralded of the 2, a top-100 4-star from Maryland. He’s a 6’3”, strong, well-rounded guard, but not a great shooter. He can provide some defensive versatility with his strength. However, given the plethora of backcourt options discussed above, he’s likely to see a limited role this year.

The last addition is freshman Nico Onyekwere, an unheralded 3-star from LuHi on Long Island, who was previously committed to Florida State before their coaching change. He’s raw, and is not likely to see the floor this season. The key for Willard will be retaining and developing both Jeffrey and Onyekwere.

The Optimist’s Take: There are a lot of really good defenders on this roster and they come together to be a high quality defense, like those of Willard’s best teams. The offense gets enough on the perimeter offensively from Perkins, Lindsay and Lewis to compete and mask the interior offensive woes with Brennan and Gapare. Matthew Hodge lives up to expectations, and provides at least 1 solid offensive weapon in the frontcourt. Devin Askew gets buried on the bench.

The Hater’s Take: Devin Askew plays a big role, and his inefficient, ball-hogging tendencies tank the offense, and kill team morale. Willard stubbornly sticks with Askew, and the quality offensive pieces like Lindsay, Perkins and Lewis are never able to get in the rhythm they need to be effective.

Fan Pulse: Thank god the Neptune era is over and we finally have an honest-to-God basketball coach at the helm.

Bottom Line: I think, for the most part, the defense will be pretty good for the Wildcats. There’s a trio of solid defenders who know Willards system coming over from Maryland with the coach in Palmer, Gapare and Pierce. Perkins is a strong defender and Stanford is decent as well. The trouble will be on the offensive end. There’s only 2 players that I think are a guaranteed plus on the offensive end: Perkins and Lindsay. Lewis should contribute, but may still suffer some freshman growing pains. Hodge is a question mark at this point, but might be a big contributor. The rest of this roster leaves much to be desired offensively. Devin askew is just a disaster all over the court, and I’m not sure what Willard sees in him. While the Willard defense floor will help this team prevent a debacle, it’s hard to see much upside here on the offensive end. For my money, with the teams ranked 7 through 10, you can realistically rank them however you see fit, and I wouldn’t argue. After much back and forth, this is the order I’ve landed on.

Prediction: 16-15 (8-12), 9th Place