Better Know a Team: Butler

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Last Year’s Record: 15-20 (6-14), Crown Quarterfinalists

Preseason Metrics (last season final):

Torvik: 78 (77)
KenPom: 72 (75)
EvanMiya: 85 (81)

Coach: Thad Matta, year 4. What can we say about Thad. I have tremendous respect for the man, I think he’s in the discussion as one-of-the-best never to win it all. But man he has not been good at Butler. I hate to slap the “washed” tag on him, but it’s hard not to given what we’ve seen to this point. Telfort and Brooks alone should have been enough to have significantly better results than we saw from the Bulldogs last season. That’s before we even get started on the defense…Thad’s best teams have always been anchored by great defenses. Let’s look at his tournament teams:

He’s not getting younger…

2001 Butler - 41st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom
2002 Xavier - 17
2003 Xavier - 29
2004 Xavier - 20 (E8)
2006 Ohio St. - 19
2007 Ohio St. - 11 (Runner-Up)
2008 Ohio St. - 18 (Just an NIT team, but NIT Champs)
2009 Ohio St. - 63
2010 Ohio St. - 26 (S16)
2011 Ohio St. - 12 (S16)
2012 Ohio St. - 4 (F4)
2013 Ohio St. - 9 (E8)
2014 Ohio St. - 2
2015 Ohio St. - 25

Now, let’s compare that to his Butler teams: 55, 76, 169. That’s 3 of his 5 worst defensive teams all-time. It started out mediocre, and has gotten worse since. And if we go back to his last team at Ohio State in 2016-17, that team was 99th defensively. The 5th worst is the 2009 OSU team , listed above, the only one of his 5-worst defenses to make the NCAA tournament, and they had an elite defense behind Evan Turner and current Butler assistant coach (and brother of current OSU head coach Jake) Jon Diebler.

For my money, defense has always been about scheme and effort, and both of those tie back to coaching much more than offensive talents like shooting, court vision, etc., which are hard to coach. Get some athletes, have a strong system, and motivate your players, and you should have a very good defense, at least. The pitiful nature of Thad’s Butler defenses has probably been the biggest red flag for me that Thad is in fact washed, and it’s time to end this reunion.

Roster:

Starters
PG: Jalen Jackson (Gr.), 6’2” 200 lbs.
SG: Bibley Finjohn, (Jr.), 6’4”, 190 lbs.
SF: Jamie Kaiser, Jr. (R-So.), 6’6” 205 lbs.
PF: Michael Ajayi (Gr.), 6’7” 235 lbs.
C: Drayton Jones (Jr.), 6’11” 250 lbs.

Rotation Bench
G/F Yame Butler (Gr.), 6’5” 210 lbs.
G Evan Haywood (So.), 6’4” 200 lbs
PG Azavier “Stink” Robinson (Fr.), 6’2” 195 lbs.
PF Jack McCaffrey (Fr.), 6’9” 215 lbs.
C Yohan Traore (Sr.), 7’0” 240 lbs.
G/F Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor (Fr.), 6’6” 220 lbs

Bench Warmers
C Kevin Ndzie (Jr.), 7’1” 240 lbs.
G Jackson Keith (Fr.), 6’5” 225 lbs.
PF Bryson Cardinal (Fr.) 6’7” 205 lbs.

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/15, 2pm ET, at SMU, The CW (lol ACC)

Greenbrier Tip-Off
11/21, 2pm, v. S. Carolina (N), CBS Sports Network
11/23, 2pm, v. Virginia (N), CBS Sports Network

12/6, 2pm, v. Boise St., truTV
12/20, 4pm, v. Northwestern, Peacock

What’s Old: Other than the coach?! Wocka wocka wocka! Thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all season.

Sorry, I’m not buying this dork as a star player.

Headlining the returners is Jizney Fizzlbuck (fine…Finley Bizjack), Butler’s 3rd leading scorer last season, posting 10.3/2.8/2.4 in 27.6 mpg on 44.3/42.8/56.3 shooting. Clearly the number that pops is that huge 3-point percentage. Bizjack was 94th percentile in 3-point shooting per CBB Analytics. He took 56.1% of his shots from deep, only 76th percentile. If Butler is to have success, they will want Bizjack to up his shot percentage from deep. That should not be hard, as Bizjack has range. He has not met a shot he would not take, and hitting almost as many 3’s from 25+ feet (29) as he did from under 25 feet (30), and he was also a full 1.6 percentage points better from 25+ feet than on shorter 3’s. This contrasts with at the rim, where Bizjack shot just 50% at the rim last season, 17th percentile in the country. His game is outside. That’s not a knock, as he’s such a great perimeter player that he can absolutely make a huge impact on games without getting to the rim. His Crown 2nd round performance against Boise State is a prime example, 30 points on 8/12 shooting, 6/9 from behind the arc, and 7 assists to boot. His 19/3/3 game vs. Xavier and his 17/5/5 game at Georgetown also stand out. That said, they lost all 3 of those games. Could be an unfortunate anomaly, or could be significant, time will tell.

Defensively, Bizjack is not great. He was the 2nd worst player on the team in CBB Analytics’ DRAPM, with Butler -0.8 points per 100 possessions worse with Bizjack on the floor as opposed to the average D1 defender. Only Patrick McCaffery was worse last year at -1.1. The -0.8 DRAPM put Bizjack in the 29th percentile nationwide. His D-Rating was not much better, coming in 2nd worst on the team among players who logged at least 150 minutes with a 115.1, just above Landon Moore’s 115.5. DBPM is a little kinder to Bizjack, giving him a 0.5. Having seen 2 seasons of Bizjack attempting to defend, I simply don’t see it getting any better. He lacks the foot speed and athleticism to stay in front of quicker guards.

Evan Haywood returns and looks to step into a much larger role as a bench guard. Last season saw him score just 2.1 ppg in 5.5 mpg as a freshman. The good news is that he flashed some shooting ability, going 9/26 from deep on the season, a per-40 rate of 8.3 attempts per game. So a small sample size, but indicative of his preference. Haywood actually made more long-distance 3’s (25+ feet) than he made normal 3’s, 6 to 3. He only hit 6 2-point shots, 4 at the rim, and 2 just beyond the rim area. Like Bizjack, Haywood didn’t show much at-the-rim, but he was a true freshman, and had a very, very limited sample size. Defensively, I’m not sure what to expect from Haywood. Truly an unknown for me. Metrics seem to indicate an average defender, but he was just a true freshman and didn’t play a ton, so do with that what you will.

Rounding out the “returners” is Jamie Kaiser, Jr., a junior. I use scare quotes because Kaiser was on the roster last season, but took a red shirt after suffering a preseason ankle injury. Kaiser transferred in last season from Maryland, where he played 1 season for new Villanova (and former Seton Hall) head coach Kevin Willard. In that 2023-24 season with Maryland Kaiser posted 4.4/2.0/0.2, and added in 1 steal per game, in 19.5 minutes, shooting 26.9/26.5/77.8. The free throw percentage seems to indicate he can shoot, but MAN those shooting percentages are ugly. Like Haywood and Bizjack, Kaiser is a perimeter-first guy, putting up 160 FGA his freshman year at Maryland, with 113 being 3-point attempts. The good news is that unlike the other returners, Kaiser is a quality defender. He’s long and strong, with the versatility to switch onto forwards. He’ll struggle a bit more switching onto guards, but he’s still capable in that regard as well. 

What’s New: The headliner here is grad transfer Michael Ajayi. The 6’7” forward transfers to Butler from Gonzaga, where he was the 6th man, logging 34 appearances, 13 starts and 18.8 mpg. He posted a line of 6.5/5.4/0.8 on 44.6/18.2/69.5 shooting. By all subjective accounts, it was a disappointing year for Ajayi after transferring to Gonzaga from WCC-mate Pepperdine. At Pepperdine in 2023-24 Ajayi posted 17.2/9.9/1.9 on 46.7/47.0/70.9. Will the real Michael Ajayi please stand up? Because frankly, which offensive version of Ajayi Butler gets is one of the single largest factors as to how good this team can be. What cannot be questioned is Ajayi’s defense. He was elite last season, posting a 96.5 D-rating and 2.9 DBPM per Sports Reference, and a 2.7 DRAPM, good for the 95th percentile nationwide. Indeed, RAPM LOVES Ajayi despite his poor shooting last year, rating him a 3.1 in ORAPM, for a 5.7 RAPM overall, which puts him in the 98th percentile. So maybe Ajayi’s Gonzaga tenure was the victim of some 3-point variance and subjective commentators focusing too much on that aspect of his game? Either way, this team will go as Ajayi goes, so they need the best version of him.

Starting at point guard will be newcomer Jalen Jackson, a senior transferring in from Purdue Fort Wayne. Jackson was an bucket in the Horizon League, posting 19.2/4.4/3.1 on 48.4/26.4/75.1. He posted an absurd 38 points on 68.8% from the field versus IU-Indy last season, adding in 7 boards and 6 assists.The 3-point shooting is cause for concern, but he shot 41% from deep during his first year at PFW (his sophomore year) and he’s 33% in his career. The 75.1% from the stripe also indicates he has decent shooting mechanics, so like Ajayi, perhaps this is merely a case of 3-point variance. If Butler gets the best version of Bizjack, that could create a back court with 2 high quality distributors and shooters. Even if he does not get back to that 41% level, it’s safe to say he’ll be better than 26.4%. He’s also an elite driving guard, with a quick first step, solid burst, and the athleticism and touch to finish over and around bigger players (dropped 31 on Penn State, e.g., who featured 6’10” rim protector Yanic Niederhauser, with only 1 bucket coming from deep, going 9/17 from 2, and going 10/12 at the stripe). Defensively, Jackson could be bad for Butler. He certainly has the quickness to defend at this level, but he grades out metrically as a poor defender, ranking in the 7th percentile in DRAPM per CBB Analytics (-2.1 points worse than an average defender). D-Rating of 105.2 and DBPM of -0.5 also point to poor defending.

Drayton Jones, a junior transferring from South Carolina State will likely be the starting 5. For me, this is a gaping weak spot in the roster. Jones was 476th in 247’s transfer rankings, and for good reason. Other than having a large frame, I’m not sure what he brings to the table. The stats look respectable on paper: 13.0/5.5/1.4, and 1.7 bpg in just 23.6, but 56.4% shooting from a center is not great. Then you look at the competition in the MEAC. Here are the heights of the starting 5’s from his MEAC opponents last season:

6’9”
6’10”
6’9”
6’6” or 6’7” (Howard started 2 different 5’s vs. SC St.)
6’9”
6’8”
6’8”

So needless to say, he was taller than all but one “center” that he faced, and sometimes significantly taller than opposing 5’s. And many of those teams with 6’9” guys frequently deployed small ball lineups. He also goosed the numbers against that tiny Howard roster, posting 10 rebounds per game across 2 games vs. Howard. All of which is to say, you’d want to see more than 5.5 rpg from a 6’10” player under those circumstances, if you are to believe that player is a Big East caliber center.

Defensively, he should still be a solid rim protector. D-rating has him at 96.1, which is pretty damn good. But D-rating does not account for competition level. DRAPM does account for opponent level, and has him at a 1.0, good for 75th percentile. So he should provide some solid defense on a roster that otherwise might struggle with it. But his rebounding and offense will leave much to be desired.

Yame Butler transfers in as a grad student from Drexel. He posted 13.6/4.6/1.8 and 0.9 spg in 31.3 mpg on 48.6/36.5/69.3 shooting. Certainly strong rebounding figures from a guard. The shooting looks solid too. His defense is about average. All-in-all, he looks to be a nice bench scoring piece for the Bulldogs, but not someone who is moving the needle in a big way.

Butler also brings in an unusually large freshman class for this day and age, headlined by top-100 4-star Azavier “Stink” Robinson. Robinson will be the most likely to contribute, and will see minutes at the 1. He’s big, physical, long and athletic, which should help him contribute on the defensive end for a team that will need it. Offensively he’s at his best going down hill and getting to the rim with his size and athleticism.

Death, taxes, a McCaffery in Indy

Continuing the trend of McCaffery’s in Indy, Butler also brings in top-150 4-star Jack McCaffery. Fran’s son is a 6’8” forward. He’s got a high basketball IQ, being a coach’s son. That IQ helps him make up for his athletic deficiencies. He’s also an decent shooter, and uses his IQ to hunt good, open looks. Defensively, his lack of athleticism is likely to limit his contributions.

Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor is a long, athletic wing. Like Stink, he’s at his best getting downhill. His length, quickness and athleticism should help him contribute defensively.

Another freshman is guard Jackson Keith, a top-200 3-star. Given the options ahead of him at G and undersized-wing (Jackson, Bizjack, Kaiser, Butler, Haywood and Stink), I don’t think we’ll see much of Keith this season.

Rounding out the freshman is unranked forward Bryson Cardinal. There’s almost no information on him out there, but I did see his father was known as “the custodian” at Purdue for his workmanlike attitude, so I presume he brings that to the table.

The last newcomer is 7’0” center Kevin Ndzie. The Cameroonian comes to Butler as a junior, after playing for Urania Milano in Italy’s Serie A2, where he averaged just 3.5 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. The height and his 7’4” wingspan definitely make him an intriguing prospect, but I’d be surprised if we see much of him this season.

The Optimist’s Take: Jackson and Ajayi find their shots. Bizjack is the all-around perimeter guard he’s shown flashes of, capable of shooting and distributing. If so, the Jackson-Bizjack backcourt becomes quite formidable, and they’ll have Ajayi and Jones to feed inside, and Ajayi and Kaiser on the wing. The defense is good enough, and maybe, just maybe Butler can sneak its way onto the right side of the bubble. 

The Hater’s Take: The 3-point shooting is bad outside of Bizjack. Jackson does not translate up, as it’s a big leap from the Horizon. Bizjack tries to do too much on a team struggling offensively. The defense is as bad as it has been throughout Matta’s Butler tenure. This is another team that could certainly finish last.

Fan Pulse: Thad might be washed as a head coach, but he’s our washed head coach. Probably a little bit of a chip on their shoulder, feeling disrespected by the prognosticators and coaches, most of whom have them in the bottom 2 or 3 teams in the league.

Bottom Line: Butler lost 3 of its top-4 scorers, including All-Big East Third Team selection Jahmyl Telfort. To replace that I’m supposed to buy a PG from the Horizon League, a Finley Bizjack improvement, and Michael Ajayi in the front court to make up for 42 points per game of scoring. I for one am not buying that. This is a classic case of bringing in worse talent than you lost, and what you lost wasn’t good (from a team perspective anyway) to begin with. It’s not like Butler suddenly bulked up on the defensive end either (lord knows Brooks and Telfort weren’t big on defense). Couple that with the fact that Thad Matta’s best days being behind him, particularly on the defensive end, and I think we’re heading for another long season in Indy. Last place is definitely within reach, and unlike a team like Xavier, where there may be some upside, I just don’t see the upside with this roster that might lend itself to climbing the standings if things break right.

Prediction: 15-16 (6-14), 10th Place