Better Know a Team: Seton Hall
Iconic NIL collaboration.
Have the Pirates sold enough pesto to field
a competitive roster for Shaheen Holloway?
Last Year’s Record: 7-25 (2-18)
Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 122 (221)
KenPom: 93 (204)
EvanMiya: 100 (186)
“Come on dawg, why you asking me about the pesto man?!”
Coach: Sha Holloway, 4th season. Most recently seen ferrying students around campus in a golf cart trying to drum up interest. I’m not saying that derisively. I love that kinda thing. As we start to bring in fucking G-League kids to college programs, every last vestige of “college” that remains is to be cherised.
On the court, Sha is trying. I personally think he’s a good coach. He’s proven to be a high quality defensive coach. However, the NIL era has not been kind to Seton Hall, and he’s struggled to fill out the roster with Big East caliber talent. Will his seat get hot if he struggles again this season? Remains to be seen. In a sane world, no. Not much more can be expected of Sha until the NIL budget improves. But ADs are not always rational creatures. If you’re a Pirate fan, keep buying the pesto!
Roster:
Starters
PG: Budd Clark (Jr.), 5’10” 165 lbs.
SG: AJ Staton-McCray (R-Sr.), 6’4” 200 lbs.
SF: Tajuan Simpkins (Jr.), 6’4” 190 lbs.
PF: Elijah Fisher (Sr.), 6’6” 220 lbs.
C: Godswill Erheriene (So.), 6’9” 225 lbs.
Rotation Bench
PG Trey Parker (So.), 6’0” 180 lbs.
F Josh Rivera (Sr.), 6’6” 225 lbs.
C Najai Hines (Fr.), 6’10” 265 lbs.
F Jacob Dar (Sr.), 6’7” 190 lbs.
C Stephon Payne III (Sr.), 6’9” 235 lbs.
SG Mike Williams III (Jr.), 6’3” 185 lbs.
PF Patrick Suemnick (Gr.), 6’8” 235 lbs.
SG Jasheem Felton (So.), 6’5” 205 lbs.
Bench Warmers
C Assane Mbaye (So.), 7’2” 190 lbs.
PG David Gabriel (Sr.), 6’1” 175 lbs.
Big Non-Conference Games:
Maui Invitational
11/24, 2:30pm v. NC State (N), ESPN2
11/25, 2:30pm or 5:00pm, v. Boise St. or USC (N), ESPN/ESPN2
11/26, TBD, Wash. St. or Chaminade or Ariz. St. or Texas, ESPN/ESPN2
12/6, TBD, at K-State, TBD
12/13 8:00pm, v. Rutgers, FS1
What’s Old: Godwsill Erheriene, an undoubted member of the Big East’s all-name team. As a raw freshman, Godswill averaged just 2.8/2.9/0.2 on 56.2/0.0/30.8 in just 14.2 mpg. However, he made his presence felt on the defensive end where he blocked 2.2 shots per 100 possessions, 1.4 per 40, and at the rim, snagging 8.1 rebounds per 40. He also averaged 7.9 points per 40, 12.3 per 100 possessions. He also had the highest total rebound percentage on the team (12.6%), and 2nd best D rebound percentage (16.2%). All of which is to say the potential is there for Godswill to have a sneaky breakout season. He’s likely to start at the 5, and they’re going to need a big year from Godswill if they want to get themselves out of the cellar.
Jasheem Felton played in 26 games for the Pirates last season, averaging 3.5/1.3/0.7 on 31.4%/34.6%/77.3% in 16.7 MPG. He took 25% of his shots from 3 last year, which equated to just 9 makes in 26 attempts, but he can certainly provide some shooting pop off the bench for this team. Otherwise, I am skeptical of his ability to contribute meaningfully. Indeed, of players who logged at least 200 minutes for Hall last season, Felton had the worst OBPM on the team (-5.9) and the worst DBPM (-1.1). If there is some hope it’s that perhaps with a bit more experience and the understanding of Sha’s system, he can turn himself into a meaningful 3 & D guy. Given that he’s the tallest guard on the roster at 6’5”, if he can be a better defender, he can certainly carve out a 3&D role for the defensive-minded Holloway.
This is as good a point as any to highlight one of the characteristics of this roster: there’s definitely some depth here. The issue is a lot of it is unproven and/or surrounded by questions marks. This is why I have 8 guys in the “rotation” category, plus the 5 starters. Of course Sha isn’t going to have a 13-man rotation. However, once you get past the starters, the roster very much takes on a “throw a bunch of guys into the mix and hope enough of them stick.” It’s not the worst strategy in the world for a program that lacks the NIL budget at this time to produce an elite roster. It will be very interesting to see how that uncertainty plays out.
Assane Mbaye did not play last season. A local product of The Patrick School, he was an unheralded recruit. His size is certainly tantalizing, but given a bit of a log-jame at center, behind Godswill, top-100 freshman Najai Hines, and senior transfer Stephon Payne, it’s unlikely Mbaye sees the floor this year.
David Gabriel appeared in just 6 games. He is similarly unlikely to provide much this season.
What’s New: Adam “Budd” Clark joins the Pirates from Merrimack in the MAAC. Clark comes in with a host of accolades, including 2023-24 NEC Rookie of the Year and a unanimous 2024-25 First Team All-MAAC selection. Clark is a BUCKET, and he’ll be the engine that drives the Pirates offense. Defensively, Clark’s size is certainly cause for concern at this level. However, Clark is an absolute ball hawk, getting 2.7 steals per game last season. He posted a 98.3 D-rating and 1.6 DBPM for the ‘mack in the MAAC last season.
He’s small.
Offensively, Clark was 3rd nationally in both usage and assist rate last season. He posted 19.8/4.5/6.0 on 44.6/28.6/77.8 shooting in 36.9 mpg. Whether he can remain an elite scorer at this level is an open question. The lack of a 3-point shot, and his small stature indicate he may struggle. That’s particularly true when you consider that he took 37.2% of his shots at the rim last season, according to CBB Analytics, with another 19.6% coming in the paint. He’ll need to use his speed and athleticism to finish around the much better and larger interior defenders that will be waiting for him at the rim in the Big East. In conference only last season, Clark posted an O-Rating of 103.9, which fell off to 99.1 versus KenPom tier A&B competition (6 games) and even harder to 84.1 in 4 games versus just tier A competition.
Where I have much, much less concern is Clark’s ability to be a distributor at the Big East level. In contrast to his O-Rating, his assist rate actually improved against top competition, rising from 42.6 to 44.6 vs. tiers A&B and 46.2 vs. just tier A, per KenPom. He also boasts a quality 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio.
Which begs the question, who can Clark distribute to? Hall was positively offensively challenged last season, ranking 315 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, 98.8, which fell to 94.1, by far the worst in the Big East, a full 4.7 points worse than 10th ranked DePaul. They do not have a single player on this year’s roster who has scored more than 10.5 ppg at the high-major level.
TJ Simpkins will be one of Clark’s starting back-court mates. Simpkins posted 14.6/3.8/2.9 on 40.8/26.3/81.1, adding in 1.6 steals for Elon. He’s a versatile guard who can certainly handle the ball when Clark is on the bench, and play off the ball when he needs to. While his 3-point shooting was poor last season, the mechanics appear to be there given his 81.1% FT conversion rate. Hall fans will hoping that’s a sign of things to come from behind the arc.
The most-experienced man on the roster is guard AJ Staton-McCray, a transfer from Miami (FL), where he played one year after playing his first 3 seasons at Samford. McCray played 21.8 mpg for the abysmal Miami team that drove Jim Larranaga into retirement. He posted 7.3/2.4/1.0 on 40.4/32.3/82.9. Two-seasons ago, he shot 41.3% from deep for Samford on 3 attempts per game. If Hall can get him closer to the 35% mark, it will be huge for this offense. Like Simpkins, the FT shooting–83% across the last 2 seasons and 79% for his career–certainly gives hope that last season’s 32.3% was a function of being on a bad team that ranked 274th in assists on the season.
Elijah Fisher will round out the starting 5. Fisher is a large guard, clocking in at 6’6”. He’s long and strong. He returns to the Big East after playing 2023-24 with DePaul, before moving on to Pacific. Fisher is the most-proven scorer at this level, posting 10.2 ppg 2 seasons ago for DePaul. Last season for Pacific he posted 15.7/4.8/1.5 on 48.3/29.7/74.8. Once again, shooting is a concern with Fisher. However, having taken a year to develop at Pacific, I think he returns to the Big East and posts something closer to last year’s 15 ppg, than his 2023-24 total at DePaul.
Defensively, this leaves a lot of questions, presuming this is the starting lineup. I tend to pull starters from the 3 Man Weave Basket Under Review previews and the Burner Ball Depth Charts, and then supplement with my own thoughts, if I have a major difference of opinion. In the case of Hall, I am not sure what to make of the starting 5 put out by those 2 sources, as it contains 4 guards, a 5’10” PG, 2-6’4” guards, and the 6’6” Fisher. Certainly there will be times when Hall needs to match-up bigger. The true 4 options all leave much to be desired.
Jacob Dar is a big strong 6’7”, so he can provide a bit more height. Dar comes over from Rice, in the AAC, so he should have less growing pains than guys like Clark or Simpkins who are coming from lesser leagues. Dar has the ability to be a spark plug off the bench. He shot 37% from deep last year while taking nearly 58% of his shots from deep. In 19.8 mpg he posted 7.5 ppg and 3.7 apg. It should be noted that while Dar is a senior, his first 2 seasons were in D2. It’s entirely possible that he improves this season after taking a good bit of last season to adjust. In the last 15 games of Rice’s season Dar posted 11.6 ppg and 4.7 rpg in 27.9 mpg, while shooting 42.3/38.4/73.5. Even more encouraging is that he shot 38.4 percent at 4.9 3-point attempts per game, a healthy volume of shots. He notched all 13 of his starts in that span.
Another player off the bench coming from a quality mid-major league is Josh Rivera. Rivera comes to South Orange from the Boogie Down Bronx, where he posted 10.7/4.3/1.1 for Fordham on 44.3/31.6/54.1 shooting. Once again, shooting is an issue. In an NJ.com article about the commitment, one anonymous A10 coach said he’d be the 9th or 10th man on a good team, and I’m not sure who should be more insulted, Rivera or Seton Hall.
Patrick Suemnick is another option to provide some size of the bench, clocking in at 6’8”, 235 lbs. Suemnick has been around the block, starting his career at Robert Morris, where he posted just 2.4 ppg in 8.4 mpg, before transferring to JUCO, resurfacing in D-1 with 2 seasons at West Virginia, where he averaged 3 ppg and 2.1 rpg in 10.6 mpg. He transferred intra-conference to Oklahoma State, where he scored 2.9 ppg & 1,9 rpg in 11.7 mpg. All of this leaves serious questions about whether Suemnick can contribute at the high major level.
Circling back to the back court, Hall brings in Trey Parker (no relation to the more famous Trey Parker) from NC State. Parker was a 4-star recruit out of Overtime Elite. He posted 4.6 ppg in 11.9 mpg, while shooting 35.7% from deep (20/56). Along with Dar, Parker looks to provide a major shooting pop off the bench. If he can keep similar production in more minutes, he could very easily push for a starting role, although it would be a tough ask defensively to play the 6’0” Parker alongside 5’10” Budd Clark.
Another option for size off the bench is Stephon Payne III. Payne is 6’9” and long, which will be a big advantage defensively. Payne joins from Jacksonville where he posted 8.4 ppg and 6.3 rpg in 21.1 mpg. However, Payne doesn’t offer much in the way of shooting.
Rounding out the transfer additions is Mike Williams. Williams is a former 4* recruit transferring in from LSU where he posted 5.9/1.8/1.0 in 11.2 MPG on 36.5/32.4/75.0 shooting. Another player with some shooting question marks. However, in his freshman campaign he shot 37.1% from deep on 3.2 attempts per game. Between that and his 75% FT rate, he very well may be a good shooter, and if so can provide another shooting weapon off the bench.
On the freshmen front, Hall brings in 6’10” 4-star Najai Hines. Hines is a beast defensively, sporting size and strength, and is reported to be a high-level rim protector, despite not having a prototypical shot-blocker’s body. Hines’ shooting, like most of the roster, leaves much to be desired.
The Optimist’s Take: Simpkins and Staton-McCray find their stroke from deep. Najai Hines is college-ready from day 1, and seriously pushes Godswill for the starting role by the time Big East play starts. Budd Clark makes a seamless transition to the high-major level. Parker and Dar provide shooting and scoring pop off the bench. Sha produces another great defense in which the system and the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Do all that, and perhaps the bubble is within grasp.
The Hater’s Take: They have a lot of big men who can’t shoot, and who therefore cannot be on the floor together without creating spacing issues. This is exacerbated by poor shooting from the wings and guards. Defensively, one of the shocking things to see in reviewing this roster is how mediocre this roster is as individual defenders. Here’s the career D-ratings of the projected rotation guys:
Budd Clark: 97.0 (in the MAAC)
TJ Simpkins: 106.4 (in the CAA)
AJ Staton-McCray: 102.9 (118.8 on a bad Miami team last year)
Elijah Fisher: 115.9
Godswill Erheriene: 111.3 (but another year under Sha might show some improvement)
Trey Parker: 109.2
Josh Rivera: 108.0
Najai Hines: N/A (expect frosh growing pains defensively)
Jacob Dar: 107.9
Stephon Payne III: 101.5 (in Southland & A-Sun)
Mike Williams II: 106.5
Patrick Suemnick: 111.4
That’s…not great Sha…Clark is the only defender under 100 D-rating, and he is undersized at this level, and posted that rating in a bottom-10 conference. Sha will have his work cut out for him in taking a bunch of middling defenders, and turning them into a coherent unit capable of playing the stellar defense Sha’s teams are known for. If things go bad, it will be because Sha couldn’t build a stout defense from these parts.
Fan Pulse: Everyone is underestimating us, Budd Clark is the truth, just you wait and see. At least we’re better than last year. Loading up on Pirate Pesto,™ the most beautiful and perfect synergy of an NIL and its regional fan base.
Bottom Line: Another long year loading in South Orange. If everything falls just right, they might be able to move up a place or two in the standings on the strength of Sha’s coaching ability. Purely on talent, this is the worst roster in the Big East. I would not expect them to be as bad as last season, which saw Hall finish 204 in KenPom, their worst in the history of KenPom by a wide margin (previous low was 117 in 2012-13). However, they still project as the worst team in the league, and I’d expect a 100-120 finish in most metrics.
Prediction: 12-19 (4-16), 11th Place