Better Know a Team: Providence

Pictured: One dope mascot and the creepiest mascot in America.

The talent appears to be there, which means this year is all about Kim English and his revamped staff. Can they get PC back to the tournament for the first time in the English era?

Last Year’s Record: 12-20 (6-14)

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 57 (107)
KenPom: 48 (96)
EvanMiya: 56 (99)

Will Kim remain confused? Or will he figure it out this year?

Coach: Kim English, 3rd season. After a first season that saw English’s Friars get snubbed for the NCAAT on the back of some metrics bullshit, last season went totally sideways. A team that entered with NCAAT aspirations last season, watched those start to flounder in Atlantis, where they lost all 3 games, including to A10 squad Davidson, and it wouldn’t be their only struggle with an A10 squad. The Friars did bounce back with a convincing win at home over BYU. That game was the first of only 3 that Bryce Hopkins would play for the Friars last season, as his knee injury lingered (wink wink).

But alas, the BYU win may have just been the Dunk aura intimidating a far-flung and unfamiliar opponent, than a sign the Friars had turned a corner. The Friars promptly followed up the BYU win with another loss to in-state rival, and A10 member URI. After a gritty road win at DePaul to open Big East play, the Friars’ A10 woes continued with a loss at Mohegan Sun to St. Bonaventures, followed by 3 straight losses to 3 of the 4 best teams in the Big East last season.

Things got testy in Friartown as things went south. Kim does himself no favors with the way he carries himself off the court, constantly seeming pissed off at the media and the larger world. If not for some of the non-basketball stuff, and Kim’s seeming arrogance, Friars fans may have had some patience for a coach who had a couple of solid freshmen in Ryan Mela and Oswin Erhunmwunse. As it stands, it is only year 3 in Friartown, but it certainly feels longer, and Kim has effectively turned up the heat on his own seat higher than it might have otherwise been. Does he get fired? I don’t believe so, unless things go horrifically off the rails. But miss the NCAAT again, with a talented roster, and the natives will be getting restless.

Personally, I’m a believer in Kim. If you read my conference preview, you’d see I picked Kim for COY on the back of an NCAAT bid for the Friars. Why is that? Well, Kim’s best season ever was undoubtedly his first season at PC. That season featured the best defense of Kim’s career, clocking in at 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, with a 95.4. This year’s team has the pieces to be very good defensively once again, and the offense will consist of more than just “let Devin Carter cook.” Kim also added two NBA coaches with strong player development experience to the staff, which should help boost the offense as well. One of those is former PC star Ryan Gomes. The other is Bryan Tibaldi. Tibaldi is supposed to bring strong offensive chops, and may be just what the offense needs to breakthrough under Kim.

Oswin ErHIMwunse

Roster:

Starters
PG: Jason Edwards (Gr.), 6’1” 180 lbs.
SG: Corey Floyd Jr. (R-Sr.), 6’4” 208 lbs.
SF: Jaylin Sellers (Gr.), 6’5” 205 lbs.
PF: Duncan Powell (Gr.), 6’8” 240 lbs.
C: Oswin Erhunmwunse (So.) 6’10” 235 lbs.

Rotation Bench
PG Daquan Davis (So.), 6’1” 185 lbs.
F Ryan Mela (So.), 6’7” 205 lbs.
F Jamier Jones (Fr.), 6’6” 218 lbs.
G/F Stefan Vaaks (Fr.), 6’7” 206 lbs.
F/C Cole Hargrove (Sr.) 6’8” 245 lbs.
G Rich Barron (Jr.), 6’5” 225 lbs.

Bench Warmers
C Peteris Pinnis (So.), 7’0” 260 lbs.
G/F Jaylen Harrell (Fr,) 6’5” 210 lbs.

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/8, 4pm vs. Va. Tech (N), Peacock (technically neutral, at Mohegan Sun)
11/14, 9pm at Colorado, ESPN+
11/22, 4pm vs. Penn. St. (N), truTV (technically neutral, at Mohegan Sun)

Rady’s Children Invitational
11/27, 5:30pm vs. Wisconsin (N), FS1
11/28, TBD vs. TCU or Florida, Fox

12/6, 12noon vs. URI, truTV


What’s Old: I’m going to start at the 5 with a player that I think is poised for a monster breakout year, Oswin Erhunmwunse (just don’t ask me to spell his name without help or pronounce it). Oswin was top-100 in the 247 Sports Composite last season, and in 20 mpg he posted 6.8/5.6/0.2, and added a whopping 1.6 bpg, shooting 72.3% from the field (for Oswin’s sake I’ll leave his 3-pt FT percentages out lol). Those figures work out to 13.5 pp40, 11.2 rp40 and 3.2 bp40. It’s clear to see why Oswin could be poised for a breakout year. He’s going to get 7-12 more mpg this season–if he can stay on the floor, more on that in a minute–and he possesses an excellent combination of strength, athleticism and skill. That manifests itself around the rim, where he takes 84.6% of his FGA, good for 99th percentile, and finishes them at a 74.1% clip, good for 91st percentile, per CBB Analytics. A little further away from the basket (> 4.5 ft) but still in the paint, Oswin’s skills still shine, as he boasts a 57.9% FG% in that area, good for 93rd percentile.

Oswin also improved greatly as the year wore on. He started all 19 games from 12/31/24 through the BET loss to Butler, and posted 8.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg and 2.0 bpg in 24.4 minutes across those starts. In that BET loss he was a bright spot for Providence, absolutely abusing Andre Screen and Bode Kapke for 16 & 11, with 2 blocks on 7/9 shooting and 2/2 from the stripe.

With his ability to protect the rim, Oswin is a force defensively, and will anchor the Friar defense from the paint. He posted a 1.1 DRAPM per CBB Analytics and DBPM of 2.7 per Sports Reference last season, and with a better surrounding cast and a year of development, I’d expect that to improve significantly. The Friars were 4.7 pp100 better defensively when Oswin was on the floor.

Also returning for the Friars is guard Corey Floyd, Jr.. Floyd redshirted at UConn in 2021-22, and has seen his role gradually increase and while his game improved, albeit in less of a straight line in his 3 seasons at PC. Now a senior, Floyd looks to take one last jump in production. Rather than just give last season’s stats, let’s look at his full tenure:

2022-23: 9.6 mpg 2.6/1.2/0/4 on 44.6/41.9/84.6
2023-24: 23.3 mpg 4.8/3.0/1.2 on 34.1/24.7/69.4
2024-25: 28.9 mpg 9.2/4.8/2.0 on 43.1/32.4/80.0

So that 2nd year was a bit of a step back on a per40 basis, but he took a pretty health jump last season, earning 25 starts in 29 appearances. One area I’m sure he’ll look to improve is shooting. He’s a career 77.5% FT shooter, so the mechanics are there. If he can get up to 35% he becomes a much bigger weapon offensively for the Friars.

Defensively, Floyd is mediocre. He doesn’t really fill out either of the defensive impact box score stats (steals or blocks), but he’s a very good rebounder for a guard, posting nearly 5 rpg last season.

Next up on the return list is forward Ryan Mela. Mela had a solid freshman campaign, posting 6.4/5.2/1.9 on 45.8/30.0/57.4. Pretty damn good for an unheralded 3-star freshman, and a good find by English and staff. If Mela wants to earn his minutes this year, he’ll need to be a better shooter. He’s not great at the rim, shooting just 57.1% (34th percentile) per CBB analytics. He’s better in the paint away from the rim (>4.5 ft.) where he takes 39.4% of his shots (97th percentile) and hits at a 49.2% clip (77th percentile). He does have good shot selection, generally eschewing the mid range, taking just 5.2% of his shots there last season. If he’s going to improve from deep, the key is likely getting him looks where he’s most comfortable: in the corner. Last year Mela shot 40% from the corner, but took just 6.5% of his shots from there, versus 12.9% of his shots coming as above-the-break 3s, where he shot just 25%. Mela’s ability to hit 3s may prove crucial when Floyd and newcomer Daquan Davis are on the floor, as they’ll need him to help maintain the spacing.

Mela is also solid defensively. The Friars were 3 points better defensively with Mela on the floor, and he sported the best D-rating among rotation players. He’s a very good rebounder and is likely to get over 1 steal per game this coming season after nearly getting there in 19 mpg last season, further improving his defensive impact.

The last returnee is junior Rich Barron. Barron is a 6’5” wing who averaged 19 mpg for the Friars last season, posting 5.2/2.3/0.6 on 35.0/33.7/54.5. Barron took a step back last season after being an All-Big East Freshman in 2023-24, losing nearly 10 percentages points in FG rate, coming almost equally as nearly 10 percentage points worse from deep and nearly 10 percentage points worse from 2. His per-40 stat line was basically flat aside from averaging 1.4 more rp40, and being more inefficient, shooting 2 more FGAp40 but scoring basically the same. If he wants to play big minutes this year, Barron needs to take a big jump, as the Friars have added significant transfer pieces at guard (Jason Edwards and Daquan Davis) and wing (Sellers), as well as freshmen Stefan Vaaks and Jamier Jones, and he’s also going to find himself behind fellow returnee Mela.

What’s New: Providence brings in 5 transfers, headlined by guard Jason Edwards. Edwards transfers in from Vanderbilt, but before that he played 2 years of JUCO and 1 year at North Texas. He is a bucket, with a D1 career line of 18.0/2.2/1.4, with nearly 1 spg in 28.9 mpg on 42.9/35.1/81.9 shooting. Edwards did not miss a beat stepping up from the AAC into the historically great SEC last season. His per-40 scoring rate and shooting percentages actually improved, pp40 going from 23.5 to 27.1, FG% from 42.5% to 43.5% and 3-point percentage from 35.0 to 35.3. There is absolutely no question that Edwards will be the engine driving this offense, much like Devin Carter 2 years ago. The difference is Edwards will have significantly more help, from Oswin, Mela and the other newcomers.

Edwards is also a 2-way player. The Commodores were 4.7 pp100 better defensively with him on the floor. (and 5 pp40 better offensively). He had a DRAPM of 0.9, 73rd percentile per CBB Analytics. Not elite by any stretch, but very good on a Vanderbilt team that was much more offense-oriented, ranking just 79th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom last season.

Looking at all that you might say “well why did he only play 25.2 mpg for the Commodores last year if he was that good. Welp, first year head coach Mark Byington ran a large rotation, with 9 players appearing in 29 or more games and averaging at least 18 mpg. Edwards was actually 2nd in mpg, just below PG AJ Hoggard’s 26 mpg, and just above Tyler Nickel’s and Devin McGlockton’s 25 mpg. Honestly, not to go off on a tangent, but Byington’s minutes distro last year is fascinating. I’m not sure you could have split this up this way if you tried, but the MPG for the 9 rotation men: 26.0, 25.2, 25.0 (2x) 20.4, 20.3, 20.2 and 18.2 (2x). Wild stuff.

In any event, Edwards is a known commodity, who will instantly improve the offense, without sacrificing anything defensively. To put in perspective how much of an offensive impact Edwards might make, if he was on Providence last year his 27.1 pp40 would’ve been the best among rotation players by nearly 10 points over Abdur-Rahim (17.8) and Bensley Joseph (17.7). It cannot be understated just what a difference Edwards will make offensively.

Sixth Man of the Year? Maybe!

In making my Devin Carter comparison up above, I noted he’d have a lot better surrounding cast. A fellow transfer contributor that brings a lot to the table offensively is Daquan Davis out of Florida State. Let’s start with the obvious: FSU was hot steaming ass last year in the hottest, steamiest ass of a “power” conference, if you could call it that. The end result was the retirement of legendary head coach Leonard Hamilton. Davis was a bright spot for the ‘noles as a true freshman. English and the Friars also recruited Davis outta Overtime Elite in 2023 through ‘24, picking up 3 Crystal Balls along the way, but obviously lost out to the ‘noles. Davis has now seen the error of his ways.

For the ‘noles, Davis posted 8.8/2.3/2.5, adding 1.1 spg and 0.6 bpg, on 36.1/27.9/82.6 shooting, in 25 mpg. Which underscores why I think he was undervalued as a transfer (212th in 247’s Transfer Rankings): he was very inefficient as a scorer. He’ll need to improve those percentages if he wants to be a major contributor. Some of that will be improving shot diet. He only gets to the rim for 24.2% of his shots (52nd percentile among guards per CBB analytics), content to settle for farther paint shots (20.5%, 72nd percentile) and mid-range 2’s (16%, 75th percentile), with a Rim + 3 attempt rate of just 63.5%, (25th percentile). The other part will be skill development. The FT rate, on over 100 attempts last season, would indicate he has the mechanics to be a good shooter.

Defensively, he brings a lot to the table. His sp40 of 1.7 puts him in the 72nd percentile among guards, and his 0.9 bp40 is in the 94th percentile among guards. Truly impressive, and evidence of his athleticism, to see a 6’1” guard averaging almost a full block per 40. He’s a gritty and aggressive defender, the type of player who loves to be in an opposing guard’s pocket at all times. When he gets beat of the dribble, he makes up for it in recovery and those blocks. In my opinion, he will thrive on this end under Kim. His ceiling for PC will depend upon improving his offensive efficiency. I may be higher on Davis than most, but he has significant 6MOY potential.

While I jumped right to Davis, he was only the 4th highest rated player in the PC transfer class per 247 Sports. After Edwards, the 2nd highest rated is Jaylin Sellers, coming in at 93rd in the transfer portal. This will be quite confusing for announcers when PC and SJU meet, particularly because Jaylin Sellers and Oziyah Sellers may very well guard one another for the bulk of the game. Sellers is another player who comes in with solid high major experience after transferring from UCF, where he had a stellar 2023-24 season, before suffering a preseason injury that saw him stretchered off from an exhibition versus FGCU in October 2024, he attempted to come back in December, played sparingly across 3 games, starting and getting 21 minutes in a January 5 game vs. Kansas, before packing it in. It’s unclear to me if he suffered a new injury, or if it was the same lingering issue from the preseason. The hope is that he can stay healthy for the Friars.

Sellers Played his first 2 seasons at Ball State, posting 13.5/3.7/0.8 on 49.0/45.0/75.7 in 30.0 mpg in his sophomore season. He didn’t skip a beat scoring-wise making the jump to the Big12 (the same year UCF made the jump) posting 15.9/3.6/1.1 in 31.9 mpg, but the difference was a drop-off in efficiency, shooting 41.9/29.7/82.9. He can get mid-range happy at times, taking 20.6% of his shots from the mid-range his junior year at UCF, 82nd percentile among guards. He took only 21.6% of his shots at the rim, 45th percentile among guards, but he hit at the rim to the tune of 71.1% (90th percentile for guards). Now, if PC can convince sellers to drive more frequently, and he gets back to even just 35-38% 3-point shooting, he will be another huge weapon offensively for Kim’s revamped offense.

Defensively, Sellers is fantastic. In 2023-24 UCF’s defense was over a full pp100 better with him on the floor versus the bench, which doesn’t sound like much until you consider that UCF had the 21st ranked defense that season, with a KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency of 95.6. On a team full of great defenders he had the 3rd best DRAPM, 3.3, 98th percentile among all players per CBB Analytics.

Between the Oswin, Floyd, Jr., Edwards and Sellers we’ve covered 4/5ths of the starting lineup, and the 6th man in Davis. Rounding out the starting 5 is power forward Duncan Powell a grad student outta Georgia Tech. Powell has gradually climbed up, starting with NC A&T in the Big South, moving up to the CAA with NC A&T before heading out to Sacramento State in the Big Sky in 2023-24, and finally landing at Georgia Tech last season. Let’s compare is Sac State and Ga. Tech years:

Sac State: 12.1/7.0/2.0 on 49.2/28.6/68.5 in 26.5 mpg
Ga. Tech: 12.2/5.4/0.8 on 44.1/35.8/68.7 in 29.5 mpg

Admittedly, I did not watch much Ga. Tech, but what I see in these numbers is someone who probably struggled a bit dealing with the size at the high major level, but who made up for it by greatly improving his shot. Not only did his percentage go up from 28.6 to 35.8, but he drastically increased his attempts per game as well, going from 1.7 3pa/game to 4.8 3pa/game. Kudos to the Ga. Tech staff for spotting this diamond in the rough and coaching him up. His ability to spread the floor from the 4 will be huge. Like his likely back-up Mela, he loves the corner, ranking in the 90th percentile for corner 3-point attempt rate, and hitting at a 38.8% clip, vs. just 26.5% of his shots being above-the-break 3s, 47th percentile, hitting at a respectable 33.3% rate, all stats per CBB Analytics. He’s also got a quality shot diet, ranking in the 79th percentile in Rim + 3 attempt rate, with 82% of his shots falling in that category.

Defensively, he is very strong, capable of guarding bigger players. He does not provide much in the way of rim protection. Generally though, he’s just not great defensively, with the Yellow Jackets coming in 3.8 pp100 better defensively with Powell on the bench.

The final newcomer is another frontcourt piece, F/C Cole Hargrove. Hargove joins the Friars for his senior year, after having a breakout campaign in 2024-25 for Drexel. He went from playing just 4.2 mpg as a sophomore, to 32.5 mpg, starting all 33 games in which he appeared, posting 9.9/7.5/1.7, with 1.9 bpg on 58.6/20/7/67.6. Just ignore that 3-pt percentage, its not relevant, he’s not a shooter, attempting just 29 3’s last season. Offensively, Hargrove works under the basket, where he takes 53.8% (84th percentile) of his attempts at hits at a rate of 76% (92nd percentile), per CBB Analytics. Layups and dunks constitute 57% of his attempts (77th percentile) per CBB Analytics. He was in the 99th percentile for offensive rebounding (3.0 per game), and 14% of his FGA were putback attempts (83rd percentile) per CBB Analytics.

Where Hargrove really has the chance to make an impact is defensively. His 1.9 blocks per game were good for the 99th percentile nationwide. He pulled down 4.5 defensive rebounds per game (97th percentile) per CBB Analytics. The Dragons were 3.7 pp100 better defensively with Hargrove on the floor.

That’s a solid 8-man rotation with the returners (minus Barron) and the transfers. To that group, the Friars add a quartet of freshman. First up are 2 Europeans hailing from the same league: the Latvia-Estonia Basketball League. The more exciting of the 2 is Stefan Vaaks, who played for BC Kalev/Carmo in Estonia last season. He’s 6’7”, so he’s big for a guard, and can definitely play and defend at the 3 as well. As is frequently the case with Euros, Vaaks comes in as a 20-year-old freshmen, bring the experience that comes with playing professionally in Europe. He was outstanding in the FIBA Euro Cup, shooting 38.7% from deep. He’s also got experience as a ball handler, and is crafty shot creator and finisher at the rim. The scouting reports indicate his defense may be lack, stating that he occasionally struggles with smaller quicker guards, which will be something to monitor.

The other Latvia-Estonia Basketball League hooper is 7’0” Peteris Pinnis out of VEF Riga. He did most of his scoring in and around the rim for Riga, and does not project to play much this season, sitting 3rd on the center depth chart.

Of the 2 American freshman to join the Friars, Jamier Jones has the most impact potential year 1. Jones ranked 40th in the class of 2025 per the 247 Sports Composite. He signed a letter of intent for the Friars in the November 2024 early period. He’s a 6’6” forward who is strong, athletic and has a high basketball IQ. According to Adam Finkelstein of 247 he has a “junkyard dog mentality” and is the type of “physical driver who seeks out contact.” He’s not the best shooter, but his strength and athleticism will be the key to success on both ends.

Jaylen Harrell is a 6’5” forward ranked 117th in the 247 Composite Rankings, who, like Jones, signed during the November 2024 early period. Harrell provides more length and shooting than Jones, but lacks footspeed. This hurts him defensively, and he in getting to the rim, but loves the mid-post and mid-range. He can also struggle with inefficiency at times, playing a volume game. He’ll have the ability to learn and grow this year with a ton of big guard and forward options ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Optimist’s Take: These Friars develop into a defensive juggernaut, as every player on this roster, headlined by Jaylin Sellers, grades out to be a plus defender per the advanced metrics. Kim has produced better defenses than offenses, and despite the staff additions, I expect this year to be no different. Offensively, the existing personnel take jumps, headlined by Mela and Oswin, Jason Edwards does his thing. Sellers finds a shooting form more akin to his Ball State days than his full year at UCF, and the offense functions quite well shooting from deep and relying on Oswin and Hargrove to clean the offensive glass and score via putbacks.

The Hater’s Take: Kim English actually just stinks as a coach. In 5 seasons, he’s only beat his KenPom preseason rank 1-time (of course the Hopkins injury hurt the last 2 seasons). Sellers becomes an offensive liability and/or can’t stay healthy. Hargrove’s defense suffers against stronger competition. The development of Mela and Oswin stagnates, Corey Floyd remains inefficient and “meh” as a player. The staff additions do not translate to an improved offense. Things start going sideways, the team checks-out sensing that their coach is a dead-man walking.

Fan Pulse: Friar.

Bottom Line: As stated above, I am super high on this Friars squad. I think the ceiling is very high. I could definitely see them leapfrogging Creighton, and maybe even one of UConn or SJU if either falters, and I’d be shocked if they fell below 6th. As it is, I have them 4th right now. I think they make the tournament with ease, and maybe even as the higher seed in their first round game. Renewed faith in Kim English abounds.

Prediction: 21-10 (11-9), 4th Place