Better Know a Team: Marquette

It’s already year 5 of the Shaka era. He had and developed elite talent his first 4 seasons, with Kam Jones leading the offense for the last 3 years. Who will step up offensively for the Golden Eagles this season?

Last Year’s Record: 23-11 (13-7), NCAAT 7 seed, upset by New Mexico in the first round

Preseason Metrics (last season final):
Torvik: 53 (30)
KenPom: 47 (29)
EvanMiya: 47 (33)

Shaka leading by example, playing the frenetic defense he demands of his players. Such a great leader.

Coach: Shaka “Sinatra” Smart, 5th year. Sinatra because he’s doing it his way. Shaka is one of the only coaches in the country to completely eschew the portal, choosing to rely solely on high school recruiting, internal development and retention. So far, his tenure has been a success, but it should be noted his best years came with players that were, in fact, transfers in Tyler Kolek and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, both of whom are currently in the league. Of course, that was Shaka’s first season, so he had a lot of roster spots to fill. He also brought in senior Kur Kuath that year, and in 2022-23 he brought in a single, lightly used transfer, Zach Wrightsil. 2025 marks the 3rd straight off-season that Shaka has completely eschewed the portal.

In his first portal-free off-season, ahead of the 2023-24 season, Shaka had a phenomenal season, going 27-10 while reaching the Sweet 16 and finishing 13th in KenPom. Last year was not as good, with Marquette going 23-11, losing in the first round of the NCAAT and finishing 29th in KenPom. The interesting not is that Shaka has not beaten his pre-season KenPom since 2022-23, when he crushed it, finishing 10th from a projection of 76th. In 2023-24 they were projected 11, finished 13th and 2024-25 projected 22, finished 29th. This season Marquette is projected 47th.

Shaka’s approach can’t help but beg the question, “what if?” While retention and commitment to your players is admiral, and there is something to be said for continuity from an on-court perspective, the best programs and coaches seem to be focusing on retention and development with supplementation (see Hurley, Danny). If Danny has a hole in his roster, or a guy who didn’t develop as well as he would have liked, he goes out and plugs the hole. He’s done it this off-season to fill the gap at PG. What if Shaka had brought in a better defensive, more traditional center to allow Gold to slide to the 4 at times? Would Marquette have been better last season? Probably. But that’s just my opinion.

I listed Shaka as “lukewarm” in my coaching seat temperature check. I may be overstating it, but if Marquette struggles this year, and Shaka’s philosophy looks like the issue, it’ll be very interesting to see if the heat gets turned up for next season, and whether Shaka softens on his anti-portal stance. Or perhaps this is just a restocking and developing year, where Marquette will be down relative to the first few seasons of Shaka, but sets themselves up for big things in 2026-27.

Roster:

Starters
PG: Sean Jones (R-Jr.), 5’10” 185 lbs.
SG: Chase Ross (Sr.), 6’5” 210 lbs.
SF: Zaide Lowery (Jr.), 6’5” 205 lbs.
PF: Royce Parham (So.), 6’8” 235 lbs.
C: Ben Gold (Sr.), 6’11”

Rotation Bench
F/G Tre Norman (Jr.), 6’4” 205 lbs.
F Damarius Owens (So.), 6’7” 205 lbs.
C Caedin Hamilton (R-So.), 6’9” 250 lbs.
PG Nigel James (Fr.), 6’0” 185 lbs.
G Adrien Stevens (Fr.), 6’4” 210 lbs.

Bench Warmers
SF Michael Phillips II (Fr.), 6’6” 195 lbs.
F Ian Miletic (Fr.), 6’7” 200 lbs.
C Joshua Clark (R-Fr.), 7’1” 235 lbs.
C Sheek Pearson (Fr.) 6’11” 200 lbs. (Redshirting)

Big Non-Conference Games:

11/9, 12pm CT v. Indiana (N), ESPN
11/15, 1pm CT v. Maryland, Peacock
11/19, 6:30pm CT v. Dayton, truTV
11/28, 1pm CT v. Oklahoma (N), NBC
12/6, 1pm CT at Wisconsin, FS1
12/13, 1pm CT at Purdue, Peacock

What’s Old: The continuity kings return 7/10 players that averaged more than 5 mpg in at least 29 games. Of course the 3 losses are the 3 leading scorers: Kam Jones (19.2), David Joplin (14.2) and Stevie Mitchell (10.7), something which has not happened in the Shaka Smart era. Replacing that scoring will be key, as the defense is likely to be high quality once again.

Let’s start with the highest returning scorer, Chase Ross. Ross has steadily improved each season. Before we dig into that, let’s discuss his line from last season, 10.5/3.8/2.1 on 46.6/36.5/75.4. Offensively, he’s versatile. Bouncy and athletic, he can get to the rim and he can shoot the 3. He sports a Rim + 3 attempt rate of 80.5%, 76th percentile in the country, a function of Shaka’s metrics-focused coaching, as every player who played at least 100 minutes last season posted a Rim + 3 rate north of 72%. Defensively, Ross posted the second best D-rating among rotation players last season, 100.9, and second best DBPM as well (4.3). One reason is Ross uses his length to really gum up opposing offenses. I’d wager he’s at or near the top of the “deflections” stat that Shaka famously tracks internally, and he generated 1.8 steals per game last season, 98th percentile nationally.

Now, about that progression, let’s get some comparisons from recent 4-year players who were impact players at Marquette in their senior years, and let’s focus on PP40 progression over 4 years, to account for fluctuations in playing time:

Metrically beautiful.

Oso Ighodaro: 6.3–12.2–14.7–16.5
Tyler Kolek: 9.1–16.0–18.6
Kam Jones: 15.9–20.2–23.7–22.7
David Joplin: 16.2–19.4–15.6–17.9
Stevie Mitchell: 10.3–12.1–13.4–15.7

The senior year to junior year jumps under Shaka average 1.6. The largest jump was Kolek’s 2.6. On a per game basis Kolek gained 2.4 from junior to senior year. Joplin and Mitchell each saw 2.3 point jumps, but each benefitted from a high profile departure from the year before (Ighodaro and Kolek to the league). All of which is to raise the question: how much of a jump can we expect from Ross? He was already playing 30 mpg last season, so there aren’t really many more minutes to be had. Can we see an improve of 2-3 ppg? Sure, but that covers a fraction of Kam Jones’ production, to say nothing of David Joplin.

Joining Ross in the backcourt is Sean Jones, who returns after 18 months rehabbing an ACL tear. Jones was back in practice early in calendar year 2025, but they elected to hold him out last season to take a medical redshirt, preserve a full year of eligibility, and fully heal. Marquette is hoping that time focusing on rehabbing and practice will pay dividends for Jones this season.

In his 2 seasons so far, Jones posted 4.3/1.0/1.4, with 0.6 steals, on 41.8/28.9/68.4 shooting in 13.5 mpg. In the 16 games in 2023-24 before his injury, Jones posted 5.8/1.5/2.0/0.9 in just 16.2 mpg. That works out to 14.4 pp40, 4.9 ap40 and 2.3 sp40. Not too shabby. He’s got a great handle and very good vision, he can find teammates from all over the court. If there’s a weakness, it’s in his shooting from deep. He’ll need to greatly improve in that area if he’s going to step into the shoes of Kam Jones. Defensively, those steal figures pop. He’s a menace on the ball, a trait that serves him well in Shaka’s system.

From the progression standpoint, Jones posted 11.9 pp40 as a freshman, and 14.4 pp40 as a sophomore. It’s possible he covers the Stevie Mitchell scoring (15.7 pp40/10.7 ppg), and maybe a bit more. He’ll also be running the point, which may be a big ask for someone who is coming off a major injury, to both run the offense and increase his scoring production. Defensively, Jones is another ball hawk, who averaged almost a steal per game in just 16 mpg. He posted a DBPM of 3.5 in the 16 games he played in 2023-24 before his injury.

Next up, a pair of juniors who will be battling for minutes on the wing. In the pole position heading into the season is Zaide Lowery. For my money, Lowery is the guy who is most likely to improve on this roster. He has the edge to start over Tre Norman because Shaka appeared to trust Lowery more last season, giving him 15.8 mpg to Norman’s 8.9 (virtually unchanged from Norman’s freshman year).

Lowery posted 4.1/3.0/0.2 on 47.1/37.5/71.4. The per-40 numbers last season: 10.4/7.7/0.6, with 1.7 steals per 40. Pretty good. The O-rating also JUMPS off the page, with his 120.8 rating being second among rotation players last season, trailing only Stevie Mitchell’s 122.8. Lowery is also a solid 2-way player, posting the 3rd best D-rating among rotation players, 101.3 (Mitchell posted 98.7 and Chase Ross posted 100.9).

Norman brings decidedly less proven ability to the table, posting 1.9/1.5/0.5 in 8.9 mpg on 34.4/18.8/50.0. Pretty weak offensively. Defeinsively, Norman fares better. He’s a tenacious, physical and stifling defender, sporting a 73rd percentile steal rate.

In the frontcourt, sophomore Royce Parham will likely start at the 4, where he’ll compete with fellow sophomore Damarius Owens for minutes. Like the Lowery/Norman dynamic, Shaka showed a clear preference for Parham last season, as he got 14.8 mpg to Owens’ 9.5. Both will be looking to step into the OMax/Oso/Joplin shoes. Parham posted 5.1/2.2/0.4, with 0.6 steals and 0.4 blocks on 40.7/28.8/64.0. Per 40 that works out to 13.8/6.0/1.0/1.7/1.0. Needless to say, just getting Parham more minutes will make him a pretty damn productive and useful piece this season. If he worked on his 3-point shot this off-season, he could have a downright breakout, MIP type season.

Owens posted just 2.6/1.2/0.5 on 34.3/34.4/83.3. The biggest area where he is better than Parham is that shooting, but something something, sample sizes (11/32 for Owens). His FT shooting would seem to indicate he’s a good shooter, regardless of the sample sizes.

Defensively, both Parham and Owens graded out as among the worst defenders on the roster from a metrics standpoint, but given the quality of the defense, that still makes them easily plus defenders. Parham likely has to slight edge due to his size, but Owens more than holds his own defensively.

Even more metrically beautiful

Ben Gold returns as the starting 5. Gold is entering his senior year, and I think at this point is a mostly finished product. You know what you’re going to get: a stretch 5 who can play really good defense away from the rim, but does not provide much in the way of rim protection, and will struggle guarding more-physical bigs. It’s no small problem, as this season there’s a bunch of physical 5s—Zuby Ejiofor, Tarris Reed, Oswin Ehrhunmwuse, N.J. Benson , Godswill Erheriene and Drayton Jones all come to mind.

Of course, while Gold may struggle on the defensive end with those bigs, many of them will struggle to guard him away from the rim on offense. Funny how mismatches work both ways, eh? To be sure, Zuby and Reed, and maybe Benson are more than capable of guarding the perimeter, but the others will struggle to defend Gold’s perimeter game. And make no mistake, that’s where Gold thrives. He shot 50.5% of his shots were above-the-break 3s (89th percentile), 21.7% were corner 3s (90th Percentile), hitting 37.1% of his 3s (75th percentile) all per CBB Analytics. Gold is fully boat in to the metrically-optimal offense, and almost completely eschews the mid-range, sporting a Rim + 3 attempt rate of 96% (99th percentile). In 25.3 mpg last season, Gold posted 7.4/4.3/0.9 on 43.4/37.1/75.8 shooting.

Caedin Hamilton was hyped up last season, earning a late-June “well embedded moles in Milwaukee…” Tweet from Jon Rothstein. The Hype has once again returned, with Shaka stating at Media Day that Hamilton was the most improved player: “[h]e’s so much more confident and we’re excited to see how he does. The vision here is clear: while shorter, Hamilton is much bigger and stronger than Gold. He has the athleticism and length to thrive in Shaka’s defense, and can defensive hole left by Gold's interior softness. The other reason for optimism, this will be Hamilton’s 3rd season in Milwaukee, after redshirting his freshman year. That’s a lot of time to develop and grow under Shaka. Offensively is where Hamilton will need to improve. He’s a much more traditional center than Gold, as he does not have much of a perimeter shot. He played just 6.3 mpg last year as a redshirt sophomore, posting per 40 figures of: 9.6/7.8/3.7 on 38.6/0.0/52.6. Marquette will really need him to clean the glass, an area where they’ve really struggled under Shaka, ranking 244th in total rebounds per game last season per Sports Reference, and 300th in defensive rebounds per game.

Joining Gold and Hamilton at the 5 is Joshua Clark, a redshirt freshman. Clark sat last season, and does not figure to crack the rotation this year barring injury.

What’s New: A quartet of freshman, headlined by a pair of 4-star guards: Adrien Stevens and Nigel James. James is a 4-star PG outta LuHi, ranking 88th in the 247 Sports Composite ranking. He’s a strong 6-feet tall, with a 6’3” wingspan, so he’s got the length Shaka craves to be a super disruptive guard in this system, and the scouting reporter are he’s every bit the aggressive, disruptive defender you want him to be. Offensively, he can get down hill, but will need to work on being more consistent with his shot.

Stevens is a 6’4” guard outta The Bullis School in Maryland. He’s a 4-star ranked 131st in the class of 2025. Similar to James, he has the physical tools that fit Shaka’s defensive system, but will probably need a bit more polish on the offensive end.

Frankly, I am never very high on kids ranked in this range as freshmen. For instance, in the class of 2024, per the 247 Sports Composite Kayvaun Mulready of Georgetown was 68th last year. Josiah Moseley of Villanova was 74th. Marquette’s own Damarius Owens was 76th. St. John’s Jaiden Glover was 79th. UConn’s Isaiah Abraham was 92nd. Marquette’s own Royce Parham was 95th. While ranks are certainly subjective and political, they’re not completely useless. Players in this range are the kind of players perfect for Shaka: guys that have room to grow, improve and develop, and will be in the program for multiple years. I just don’t expect such players to make a major impact year 1. 

Given the logjam at forward, freshman Michael Phillips II and Ian Miletic are unlikely to crack the rotation. Phillips is a 6’6” SF out of North Carolina, clocking in as a 4-star, ranked 105 per the 247 Sports Composite. Miletic is a 6’7” SF from Illinois, also rated 4-stars, and ranked 111th in the class of 2025.

Finally, center Sheek Pearson committed to the Golden Eagles in May as part of the class of 2026, subsequently reclassified to 2025. Pearson ranks 70th in the Class of 2025 per the 247 Sports Composite. He’s tall and long, sporting a 7’1” wingspan to go with his 6’11” frame. In line with Shaka’s development-focused philosophy, Pearson is redshirting, but it is certainly better for him to develop at Marquette than take another year of HS. If he develops, he could be in a wide-open competition for minutes at the 5 next year with Hamilton and Clark.

The Optimist’s Take: The Shaka player development train just keeps on rolling. Despite losing the one constant that kept them humming through the departures of other stars, Shaka has guys like Ross and Jones ready to step right in and fill the void. Ben Gold finds his big boy pants to D-up on stronger centers like Zuby Ejiofor and Tarris Reed. The defense remains top-25 caliber, and they get enough offensively–particularly in transition off of the TOs they will almost certainly generate–despite losing their top-3 scorers to once again be a top-3 or -4 team in the Big East, and comfortably make the NCAAT.

The Hater’s Take: Not once in this run of Shaka’s have the Golden Eagles lost this much: all 3 of their leading scorers and their leading assist man. Kam Jones has been the year over year constant, leading Marquette in scoring for 3 straight seasons, and leading them in assists last year. Despite having 22 months to heal and most of this calendar year to practice with the team, dating back to last season, Sean Jones shows rust and is slow to get up to speed. Chase Ross is what he is: a 10ish ppg scorer. Ben Gold continues to get abused by stronger big men. Parham and Owens don’t take the necessary offensive jumps. Marquette is bubbalicious all season.

What portaaaalll??

Fan Pulse: “Portal? What portaaaalll?! Shaka’s the best coach around!” Although if you can get a Marquette fan to tell you the truth, most of them are a bit on edge heading into this season, and most are frustrated by Shaka’s refusal to utilize the transfer portal.

Bottom Line: For my money, this season underscores the problem with Shaka’s approach. He’s succeeded to date because he’s brought in high-end talent. Kolek, Jones, Ighodaro and OMax are NBA-caliber talents. He had all 4 of them together and they were great, then OMax left, and the team got a little worse. Then Kolek and Ighodaro left, and the team got noticeably worse. Now Kam Jones departs and…I’m supposed to believe they get better? And it’s not just Kam, as Marquette has lost its 2nd and 3rd leading scorers in David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell.

Into that void some combination of Sean Jones coming off a major injury, Ross, Parham, Lowery, Owens, Norman or a freshman is supposed to step up. Not one of those players has had a season as good as the quartet of graduates listed above. To be better than last season, they’ll need at least 2, if not 3 guys to take major steps forward. Ross and Jones, plus one of the other guys. That’s a lot of “ifs” and no obvious, proven stars to plug-in.

Put differently, in years past, the transitions made sense, the returning talent was more obviously undeniable. OMax leaving? No worries, Marquette had Ighodaro right behind him, and they still returned their 2 leading scorers in Kolek and Kam Jones. Kolek and Ighodaro leaving? No worries, Kam Jones and Joplin are waiting in the wings, the former once again being their leading scorer. This year, they’ve lost their top-3 scorers. No one on this roster has the proven talent of a guy like Kam Jones, let alone his level of production, which really anchored the last 3 seasons in Milwaukee, and softened the blow of each departure.

Then you consider that even when the proven talent was obviously better, and obvious replacements were right there waiting, this team still took a step back each of the last 2 seasons, peaking at 10 in KenPom in 2022-23, falling slightly to 13, and then to 29 last season. This roster feels poised to drop even further, projected 47th by KenPom. The KenPom ranks have been almost spot on for Shaka’s Golden Eagles the last 2 seasons: 2023-24, projected 11th, finished 13th, and 2025, projected 22th, finished 29th. In fairness, Marquette massively outperformed KenPom’s projections in years 1 & 2: 87th to 56th and 76th to 10th, respectively.

In sum, this is going to be the biggest test of Shaka’s philosophy. On paper, this is the least amount of talent he’s returned during his Marquette tenure. Can he spin a bunch of silver-caliber players into Golden Eagle caliber players?

Thank you, thank you. I’ll be here all season.

But that is the million dollar question for Marquette. Personally, I think this Marquette team is good enough to be just on the right side of the bubble, but I don’t think they’re capable of much beyond that unless things go seriously right with the Parham, Lowery, Owens and Norman group of players. If Shaka can prove me wrong, and crack the top-3 of the Big East, or get better than a 9- or 10-seed in the big dance, I might never doubt the man and his philosophy again, and I’d be the first one calling for him to win Big East Coach of the Year.

Prediction: 19-12 (10-10), 5th Place