Franketology: February 25, 2025
I riled up VCU Twitter this afternoon with this tweet:
I stand by it.
Coming into today, BracketMatrix.com has VCU as the top 11-seed, squarely in at-large territory. Naturally, I have some thoughts. First, this might just be a quirky anomaly. All but 1 bracket has VCU you in. This is not necessarily because VCU is an at-large lock, but It may be that many bracketologists have them as an 11-seed auto bid, just behind the Last 4 In, also on the 11-seed line. If that’s true, just a few bracketologists pushing placing VCU on the 10 line (indeed in some cases the 9(!) seed line, could pull that average from the first auto-bid 11 (behind the last 4 in) to the first 11 seed, at-large territory before the last 4 in. I think that’s definitely a factor.
But as you may notice, there’s still several Bracket Matrix members that have VCU squarely in the at-large field, with 31 of 63 brackets that had VCU in the field had them on the 9 or 10 line. Two brave souls of that 63 (soon to be 3 when the Matrix updates to include my bracket), Bracket WAG and 5 Star Bets. Neither are particularly high in the Matrix, but Bracket WAG has been doing this for a long time, so it is reassuring to see he’s with me on this.
In order to see why I firmly believe that VCU is not an at-large team, we need to start with a look at the bubble. As with last week, below is a snippet of my bracketology workbook. This one includes 19 teams: last four byes, last four in, first four out, next four out, plus 3 auto-bids that would be on the bubble if they lose their conference tournaments: UCSD, Drake and of course, VCU. Wake Forest will likely fall way off the bubble given just how badly Duke murdered them. No shame in losing to Duke, but that was ugly. In any event, the following is still instructive:
Link to spreadsheet right here.
The problem here for VCU is an absolute dearth of quality wins. They have a bubbly resume metrics average of 44.67. The predictive metrics average and NET are both good, both at 29, but it are largely irrelevant for getting a bid. They have not beaten an at-large team, and will not have any opportunities to before Selection Sunday. They have a single Q1 win. If you do the math, you can see there’s 8 at-large bids for 19 teams in this spreadsheet. So let’s take these in resume order, and see if we can get VCU into the top 8…
Fir
Teams with Better Resume Metrics
There are 4 teams that have resume metrics averages under 40:
Utah State - 33.67
SDSU - 36.67
Drake - 37.00
Georgia - 37.33
But of course that is just one line on the resume. For purposes of determining the field (as opposed to seeding), predictive metrics really only used in case of a tiebreaker, so I will not be evaluating them.
Utah State - 3 wins v. at large field; 3-3 in Q1, 1-0 in Q1A, SOS 83; no losses in Qs 3&4 - this resume is clearly better than VCU; same .500 record in Q1, but 3-3 vs. 1-1, SOS 83 vs. 144, 3 wins vs. at-large field vs. none
SDSU - 3 wins v. at large field, 4-5 Q1; 1-2 Q1A; 1 Q3 loss; SOS 65 - clearly a better resume than VCU with the Q1A win, 4 Q1 wins and just 1 game under .500, and a much better SOS
Drake - 1 win v. at large field, 1-0 Q1; 4-0 Q2, 3 Q3 losses; SOS 203 - this is similar to VCU, but I probably give Drake the slight edge given they won their lone Q1 game, and sport a win over the field, but the SOS is troubling. I could see this one either way, so let’s give VCU the edge
Georgia - 4 wins v. at-large field; 4-11 Q1; 3-9 Q1A; 34.33 predictive metrics average, SOS 14, 0 losses outside Q1 - this resume is obviously better. 3 Q1A wins vs. 0, SOS 14 vs. 144, having predictives in the same ballpark as VCU, the 4 wins over the at-large field all clear VCU’s lone advantage: a .500 (1-1) record in Q1
So just in the first 4, we got at least 3 teams better than VCU already.
Teams with Similar Resume Metrics (40-50 average)
Indiana - 40.67 resume average; 2 wins v. at-large field; 4-11 Q1; 2-5 Q1A; SOS 34; 0 losses outside Q1 - better resume metric average, more quality wins, much tougher SOS, no doubt better resume than VCU
Wake Forest - let’s just say VCU has a better resume than Wake after that performance vs. Duke lol
Oklahoma - 46.67 resume average, 6 wins vs. at-large field; 5-10 Q1; 3-9 Q1A; 1 Q3 loss; SOS 15 - hard to debate this, that is a gaudy amount of wins vs. the field, 5 Q1 wins, 3 Q1A wins, SOS light years better
UNC - 47.00 resume average, 1 win v. at-large field; 1-10 Q1; 0-8 Q1A; 1 Q3 loss; SOS 44 - VCU’s resume clears
UCSD - 48.33 resume average, 1 win v. at-large field; 2-1 Q1; 1-0 Q1A; 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss; SOS 208 - another close call here, personally I give UCSD the edge with the win over the field and the Q1A win, but the SOS and Q4 win are definitely problematic. I could see it going either way, so let’s give VCU the benefit of the doubt here
Link to Franketology Spreadsheet
TRUE SEED LIST
Auburn
Duke
Houston
Alabama
Tennessee
Florida
Arizona
Kentucky
Texas A&M
Michigan St.
Wisconsin
St. John’s
Maryland
Missouri
Purdue
Texas Tech
Iowa St.
Michigan
Clemson
Saint Mary’s
Louisville
Miss. St.
Marquette
UCLA
Oregon
Ole Miss
Illinois
Creighton
Kansas
Memphis
Utah St.
BYU
Baylor
New Mexico
UConn
West Virginia
LAST FOUR BYES
Ohio St.
Nebraska
Gonzaga (as an auto bid, Gonzaga is not last 4 byes, but fell here in my seeding)
Texas
Vanderbilt
LAST FOUR IN
Oklahoma
SDSU
Arkansas
Indiana
OTHER AUTO-BIDS
UC San Diego
Drake
Arkansas St.
VCU
Liberty
McNeese St.
Yale
Grand Canyon
Lipscomb
High Point
Akron
Samford
South Dakota St.
UNCW
No. Colorado
Milwaukee
Norfolk St.
CCSU
Bryant
Quinnipiac
Southern U
SEMO
Bucknell
FIRST FOUR OUT
Georgia
TCU
Boise St.
Wake Forest
NEXT FOUR OUT
UNC
Arizona St.
Xavier
Northwestern