Franketology: New Year’s Day Edition, January 1, 2026
The theme, at least to this point in the season: parity has returned to CBB! Among the top leagues, here’s the bid totals and percentage of teams from the Power 5 leagues:
ACC: 9 (50%)
B1G: 8 (44%)
Big12: 9 (56%)
Big East: 5 (45%)
SEC: 9 (56%)
Essentially, every team getting half of their teams into the NCAAT per the latest Franketology. By way of refresher, here’s what last season’s bracket looked like:
ACC: 4 (22%)
B1G: 8 (44%)
Big12: 7 (44%)
Big East: 5 (45%)
SEC: 14 (88%)
So really pretty similar except the ACC is back, and the SEC is not nearly as dominant as it was last season, although it still rates out as the best league per KenPom. The other interesting note is that for all the consternation about the Big East, they’d still get 5 teams in if the NCAAT started today, and has another team (Creighton) knocking on the door—First Four Out per Franketology.
Now, some will certainly disagree with my assessment. For instance, I have Virginia Tech in over Ohio State, against the Bracket Matrix consensus. The Bracket Matrix consensus has Oklahoma appearing in almost 1/3rd of the brackets, so there is no shortage of supporters for another ACC team either. However, by and large you’re talking about a 1 team difference either way for most Bracketologists.
The issue for the SEC this year is that the bottom of that conference is not nearly as strong as it was last year:
Texas is 9-4 with one decent win, on Maui versus N.C. State. Their 2nd best win is KenPom 244 Southern, followed by 301 Le Moyne. They’ve lost to KP 9 Duke, KP 79 Arizona St., KP 26 Virginia, and KP 6 UConn. So one questionable loss, also on Maui, versus a single good win, and an overall SOS that is quite weak (320th per KenPom). Their resume metrics average is 91.33 (64 WAB); their efficiency metrics average is 45.33 and their NET is 58. Nothing there profiles as a surefire NCAAT team.
Texas A&M is 10-3, and played a similarly weak schedule, ranked 346th by KenPom. Their best win is versus KP 93 Pittsburgh. They sport losses to at KP 60 Oklahoma St., home vs. KP 45 UCF, and vs. KP 40 SMU on a neutral floor. Resume metrics average of 80.67 (73 WAB), 42.23 efficiency metrics average, and a NET of 67. Once again, not profiling like an NCAAT team.
Oklahoma is the closest team on the outside of the NCAAT right now, their best wins are at KP 61 Wake Forest and versus KP 60 Oklahoma State on a neutral floor. They also lost to Arizona State on a neutral floor, KP 23 Nebraska on a neutral floor and at KP 5 Gonzaga. Their overall SOS is 332 per KenPom.
Mizzou is 10-3 against the 352nd ranked schedule per KenPom, with their best win coming at home versus KP 99 Minnesota. They’ve lost at KP 59 Notre Dame, versus KP 17 Kansas and KP 8 Illinois on neutral floors. They have an efficiency metrics average of 57.67 and a resume metrics average of 78.67 (WAB 60). Their NET is 94.
The Mississippi schools, Ole Miss and Mississippi State each sport 8-5 records with resume metrics averages and WABs north of 100. The teams share a best win against KP 73 Memphis, both at home. Both would have to go on absolutely insane tears in SEC play if they are to make the NCAAT, and neither has shown they’re capable of such a run.
South Carolina is 9-4 against the 360th ranked schedule in America per KenPom. Their best win—no joke—is an 83-79 overtime win against Southern Miss, ranked 192nd per KenPom. Resume metrics average, WAB and NET are all north of 100. Of all the team’s on this list, you’d have to say they’re the one team that has almost no shot at making the tournament despite the abundance of opportunities for quality wins in the SEC, with 13 Q1 opportunities on the schedule per my count.
Zooming out to the bigger picture, what we see is that last season the SEC went 30-4 against the ACC and this season they went 17-15. So 2 less games, but significantly worse record for the SEC. They picked up 2 games against the Big East (7-4 this season, 5-4 last), but were also worse against the B1G (6-10 versus 10-9) and the Big12 (6-15 versus 14-2). More parity. And that is now reflected in the bracketology.
The other important point about those intraconference records, it makes it difficult for the SEC to get many more teams in than where they’re at right now. Around this time last year Franketology had 13 SEC teams in, and they finished with 14 in Franketology and the actual bracket. I had 3 Big East teams, they finished with 4 in the actual bracket. I had 4 ACC teams and they finished with 4 in the actual bracket. I had 8 for the Big12, they finished with 8 in Franketology and 7 in the actual bracket. In other words, it’s hard for conferences to pick up a significant amount of bids once out-of-conference play is over.
So after that lengthy spiel, here is your first Franketology of 2026:
SEED LIST
Michigan
Arizona
UConn
Iowa St.
Gonzaga
Purdue
Duke
Vanderbilt
BYU
Michigan St.
Alabama
Nebraska
Houston
Illinois
Kansas
North Carolina
Louisville
Texas Tech
Saint Mary's (CA)
Tennessee
Villanova
Kentucky
St. John's
Florida
Utah St.
Iowa
Arkansas
Southern California
SMU
Auburn
Clemson
Virginia
Georgia
NC St.
Seton Hall
LSU
UCF
Saint Louis
UCLA
Miami (FL)
Baylor
Oklahoma St.
Virginia Tech
Boise St.
Butler
Tulsa
McNeese St.
Akron
Yale
Illinois St.
Utah Valley
UC San Diego
Liberty
Hofstra
High Point
Quinnipiac
Troy
Northern Colo.
St. Thomas (MN)
Lipscomb
ETSU
Wright St.
UT Martin
Colgate
LIU
Vermont
Southern U.
Norfolk St.
(FFO) Ohio St.
(FFO) Creighton
(FFO) Oklahoma
(FFO) California
(NFO) VCU
(NFO) TCU
(NFO) Kansas St.
(NFO) New Mexico