Championship Week Viewing Guide
Starting tomorrow, March 7th, at least one Big Dance ticket will be punched, 15 in total, over the next 5 days days—Saturday through Wednesday. We have a two-day “lull” featuring quarters and semis (and on Thursday, a round earlier in some leagues), before another 16 tickets are punched on Saturday and Sunday the 14th and 15th. March 15th of course being Selection Sunday. I figured I’d put together a brief viewing guide, mostly just to cover dates and times, with a very brief write-up for each. Here we are in chronological order of championships:
March 7
OVC - 9pm, ESPN2 - The other Valley kicks us off, awarding the first bid of the season on Saturday. The top four seeds are still alive heading into tonight’s semifinals: Tennessee State and Morehead St. finished the season tied atop the regular season standings, spitting their season series, with TSU winning a wild 105-100 overtime shootout at home, and Morehead St. defending their home turf in an equally high-scoring 94-86 affair. I’m no gambling pro, but I don’t think they can set the over high enough to get me off it in the championship game, should those 2 meet. The 3 and 4 seeds, SEMO and UT Martin will seek to play spoilers. TSU and Morehead St. got byes into the semifinals, so they’re well-rested, while SEMO and UT Martin had to play last night in the quarterfinals. WINNER: Tennessee St.
March 8
MVC - 12pm, CBS Sports - Arch Madness is one of, if not the best non-Big East conference tournament. A lot of evenly matched teams, great fanbases, and a strong environment, plus plenty of chaos over the years. Drake has won 3 straight, but that was far from a foregone conclusion, as they only one the regular season title once in that span. Of course, those coaches—Darren DeVries for the first two and Ben McCollum for the third—have left for Indiana (by way of WVU) and Iowa, respectively, and Drake couldn’t keep the mojo going this year, so it is very likely we see a new champion. Belmont is the regular season champion and favorite, sporting the best KenPom rank of the group, at 56th. Surprisingly, UNI has the 2nd best KenPom rank at 83rd, despite coming in 6th in the regular season. Illinois St. finished 3rd, with a KenPom rank of 95th, just behind Bradley, with a KenPom of 124. Other teams in that range at KenPom: 4th place UIC (110), 5th place Murray St. (116) and 8th place SIU (117), who has already been eliminated by Drake in the 8/9 opening round game. Regardless, this tournament is Belmont’s to lose. However, should they falter, there’s 5 teams remaining that would all have a fairly equal shot at winning the bid. WINNER: Northern Iowa
Big South - 12pm, ESPN2 - Start your day off with a doubleheader on the Deuce, starting with the Big South. High Point won the league by 2 full games over Winthrop, and really no one else here stands a chance. My money is on High Point—a newly established powerhouse in this conference, thanks to future Creighton head coach Alan Huss’ work there the last 2 years and a heavy investment in the program—to repeat. WINNER: High Point
ASUN - 2pm, ESPN2 - Central Arkansas and Austin Peay finished atop the standings at 15-3, with Central Arkansas getting the edge for the top seed by virtue of beating Austin Peay in their lone regular season meeting, just under 2 weeks ago, February 25th. Austin Peay backed that up with a bad loss to Bellarmine in the season finale. Meanwhile Central Arkansas finished the season on a 13-1 run, including 10 straight before losing to FGCU on February 21st. Queens and Lipscomb are the 3 and 4 seeds, and are certainly capable of winning the bid. The top 3 teams in KnePom are very closely bunched, Central Arkansas at 156, Austin Peay at 163, and Lipscomb at 178. Queens is not far beind at 191. After that the drop-off is steep to FGCU at 263. If you’re looking for a darkhorse, 8-seed Bellarmine managed to beat all of the top-3 seeds and lost o 4th-seeded Lipscomb by just 3 points at home on February 18th.
Summit - 9pm, CBS Sports - The Summit is a fun league. They have 6 offenses in the top-225 at KenPom, but only 2 defenses inside the top-225. Not coincidentally, those top- 2 defenses sit atop the league in North Dakota St. and St. Thomas, who rank 118th and 104th at KenPom overall. There’s a steep drop-off to the 3rd-ranked KenPom team, 4th place Denver at 221. Expect one of these top-2 to win the bid. The home team won both meetings between NDSU and the Tommies, so it should be an exciting championship game should they meet.
March 9
Sun Belt - 7pm, ESPN/ESPN2 - The Fun Belt lived up to its name this season, with just 4 games separating first place Troy and 10th place Georgia Southern. Tiebreakers decided the all-important seeding in this ladder style bracket. The top 2 seeds, Troy and Marshall, respectively, get buys into Sunday’s semifinals, while the 3 and 4 seeds, Coastal Carolina and App. St. get buys into Saturday’s quarterfinals. Arkansas St., arguably the co-favorite to win this tournament, at least per KenPom, was already upset by 10-seeded Georgia Southern in a game that Arkansas St. only had to play because it came in dead last after the 6-way tiebreaker for the 2nd through 7th seeds. This should continue to be a wild one, with most of the remaining teams fairly evenly matched. The quarterfinals and semifinals should be can’t miss TV.
SoCon - 7pm, ESPN/ESPN2 - The SoCon is usually good for putting out some high-quality mid-majors. This year’s version was not quite up to their usual standards; however, there are still some decent teams capable of winning this tournament and springing an upset in the Big Dance. Play kicks-off tonight, with the bottom 4 seeds playing in the First Round. The teams best-positioned to win would be regular-season champ ETSU (142 KenPom), any of the 3 teams tied for 2nd—Mercer (181), Samford 210, Wofford (250) or the 5th and 6th placed teams Furman (202) and Western Carolina (234). In the Jerome, I took Western Carolina as a dark horse candidate value bet. Since losing 3 straight to start February, the Catamounts have won 6th straight, playing like the 98th best team in the country in that stretch per Torvik. That stretch included wins over the bottom 4 teams, but they finished the season with back-to-back home wins over Mercer and Furman, the latter of whom they also beat on the road earlier in the year. The Catamounts also swept the season series with ETSU, further bolstering their case as a dark horse to bet.
March 10
CAA - 7pm, CBS Sports - The top of this conference is incredibly strong, with third place Hofstra holding the highest KenPom ranking (93), but falling 3 games short of first place UNC-Wilmington (102) and 2 games shy of 2nd place Charleston (149). Fifth place (but 6-seed on tiebreaker) William & Mary also sports a strong 136 in KenPom despite finishing 5 games back of first. Fourth place Monmouth should also be competitive, but they have yet to show they can beat the top-3 teams, going 0-4 versus those opponents, losing twice to Hofstra and once each to Charleston and UNCW, albeit the latter 2 both on the road. I’d be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from one of those top-5 teams, as this league has skewed fairly top-heavy this season.
Horizon - 7pm, ESPN - This is a bizarre bracket, if we’re being honest. There was a play-in game between the 10th and 11th seeds at campus sites, followed by a second round at campus sites featuring all remaining 10 teams . The bracket then got re-seeded, with 5 seed Green Bay facing 7 seed Northern Kentucky in the lone “Second Round” game in Indianapolis, with the winner facing top seed Wright St. in the semifinals on Monday, while the 2 and 3 seeds—Robert Morris and Detroit Mercy—face off in the other semifinal. However we got here, 4 of the top 5 KenPom teams remain. If you wanted to ride the hot hand, Robert Morris is 8-0 since February 1, including 2 wins over Wright St. and a win over Detroit Mercy, who they’ll face in the semifinals.
NEC - 7pm, ESPN2 - Chaos reigned supreme in the quarterfinals, with 7-seed Wagner taking down 2-seed Central Connecticut on the road in this campus-site tournament, while 5-seed Stonehill sprung the road upset on 4-seed Le Moyne, and the top-seeded Sharks of LIU snuck by 8-seed Chicago state by just 4-points. Thanks to re-seeding, LIU will host intra-city rival Wagner tomorrow, while Mercyhurst hosts Stonehill. LIU has had a great season, winning the league by 3, and posting the best KenPom figure by 71 spots, so it would be a huge upset if they did not win this tournament. Mercyhurst is best-positioned to spring that upset, being the only team remaining to have beaten the Sharks, and also being the 2nd best KenPom team in the conference (286 to LIU’s 215).
WCC - 9pm, ESPN - The WCC has not sent 3 teams to the NCAA Tournament since 2022, when San Francisco joined perennial tournament teams Gonzaga and St. Mary’s (CA). They seem poised to do that once again, with Santa Clara in position to claim a third bid. The one thing Santa Clara cannot afford to do is lose its opening game in the quarterfinals of this ladder style tournament. They’ll face the winner of 6-seed pacific versus either 7-seed Seattle or 11-seed San Diego. If a bid-thief is to emerge in this multi-bid league Seattle, Pacific, San Francisco or Washington State are all capable, but the only team outside the top-3 to beat either Gonzaga or St. Mary’s (CA) was Portland, who upset Gonzaga 87-80 in Portland. St. Mary’s comes in hot, having beaten Santa Clara and Gonzaga to close out the season, both at home, to cap off an 8-game winning streak. They have a bye into the semifinals alongside Gonzaga, with whom they shared the regular season title, marking 4-straight regular season titles for the Gaels—2 outright—a shocking stat considering Gonzaga’s historic dominance of this conference the last 30 years. I think I like the Gaels here, especially if Braden Huff cannot return. Since Huff went down, the 3 teams at the top have been almost evenly matched per Torvik, with St. Mary’s having an adjusted efficiency margin of 23.3, Gonzaga 22.7, and Santa Clara 22.1.
MAAC - 9pm, ESPN2 - I love Atlantic City, so one of these years, when work is quiet, I’m going to get myself down to the MAAC Tournament. Cool ass venue in Boardwalk Hall. A conference with a sensible geographic and cultural footprint. A lot of evenly-matched programs most years. And of course some fun history, as we all remember St. Peter’s historic Elite 8 run in 2022. What people forget? St. Peter’s wasn’t even the favorite in the MAAC tournament…that would’ve been Iona, coached then by Rick Pitino. The Gaels were 89th in Ken Pom that year, and won the regular season by 3 full games over St. Peter’s, but lost in the first round to Rider. Chaos. What’s not to like? Merrimack is the big favorite this year, but like 2022 Iona, the Warriors also won the league by 3 games over St. Peter’s. The symmetry is certainly there. Of course Shaheen Holloway, the architect of the Peacocks’ Elite 8 run cashed in during the off-season, accepting the job at his alma mater, Seton Hall. Current Peacocks head coach Bashir Mason already has one tournament under his belt in 2024, can he get the Peacocks back to the Big Dance? St. Peter’s split the season series with the Warriors, with each team defending their home court. Besides those two, you have Siena, Marist and Quinnipiac all bunched together in KenPom and the regular season standings, each capable of spring the upset in AC. although none managed to beat Merrimack in the Regular Season and of that trio, only Siena beat St. Peter’s.
March 11
Southland - 5pm, ESPN2 - Two things to note here: First, this tournament is being played on campus in Lake Charles, Louisiana, home of McNeese St. Additionally, four teams did not qualify: Incarnate Word, Lamar, East Texas A&M, and SE Louisiana. Of the 8 teams that did qualify, it feels largely like a 2 team race: Stephen F. Austin and McNeese St., who each get byes into the semifinals on Tuesday, March 10. SFA won the league by one game over McNeese. The teams split their regular season meetings, with the home team winning each. If you’re looking for a bit of a dark horse, can I interest you in New Orleans? The Privateers opened the season with a win at TCU, and 2 games later backed it up with a win over Tulane. They lost 6 straight to close out non-conference play, which included forgivable Ls to Fresno St., Mississippi St., Texas Tech, Memphis and Houston, but also a regrettable loss to Pepperdine. New Orleans is 183rd in KenPom, so significantly off the pace, but they beat SFA on the road on February 23, and only lost by 5 when SFA came to NOLA. They also lost by just 3 when McNeese came to NOLA on 2/28. A a bad loss at home to SE Louisiana to close out the season cost New Orleans a bye into the quarterfinals, so they’ll have to win 4 in 4 days if they want to win it all.
Patriot - 7pm, CBS Sports - As of now, 2:45pm on March 8, there’s just 3 teams left in the Patriot League tournament. Lehigh won their semifinal over Colgate. BU and Navy are facing off in the other semifinal as I write this. Navy is the favorite and hosting the semifinal (and final if they win). Navy is by far the best team in the league, over 100 KenPom ranks higher than the 2nd most-efficient team, American, who lost in the quarterfinals. Lehigh is 151 spots worst and BU 123 spots worse. This is Navy’s to lose.
Big Sky - 11:30pm, ESPN2 - STARCH MADNESS! One of my favorite non-Big East tournaments. If you don’t know Joe Cravens, do yourself a favor and tune into any Big Sky game. I look forward to the Big Sky tournament for his commentary every year. The 2 Idahoes (University of and State) won the opening round matches, and will face off against Montana State and Portland State, respectively, in the quarterfinals later today (March 8). Montana State is your KenPom favorite, while Portland State is the overall 1 seed. Northern Colorado probably the best sleeper here, but frankly this is wide open, with every remaining team except maybe Idaho St. capable of winning it all. Northern Colorado comes in with the 3rd best KenPom rank in the conference, and is the 2nd hottest team in the conference since March 1 per Torvik, and since January 29 they’re 9-1, with wins over Portland St. and 4th-seeded Montana, who they’ll face in the quarterfinals. A definite dark horse candidate.
March 14
America East - 11am, ESPN2 - Down to the final four in the America East, with the higher seeds hosting. The semifinals on Tuesday, March 10, will see UMass-Lowell at UMBC and NJIT at Vermont. UMBC is the 1-seed and KenPom favorite. They have not lost since a January 29 L at Vermont, which they avenged 3 weeks later in the return game. They’ve smoked UMass-Lowell in both meetings, and I would expect them to do it again. The other semifinal, between NJIT and Vermont, should be a good tilt, with the teams splitting the season series, with the road team winning each. UMBC swept NJIT, but split with Vermont. Expect UMBC-Vermont to be a good game if they each win their semis, but I’d give the Golden Retrievers the edge.
MEAC - 1pm, ESPN2 - Top-seed Howard gets a bye into the semifinals. Coppin St. is ineligible for post season play, leaving 6 teams to play in the quarterfinals. Howard is the only team inside the top-300 in KenPom, coming in at 203. Fourth-seeded Norfolk St. would be the team most expected to knock off Howard, but their games have been non-competitive, with Howard winning 88-60 and 84-76. Morgan St. is one of just 3 MEAC teams to beat Howard this year, back on January 24, a home game for the Bison. Since then, the Bison rolled off 9 straight conference victories, with a late-season non-conference tilt with Yale the lone loss. During that conference win streak Howard avenged their loss to Morgan St. in convincing fashion, 84-59. Anything other than a Howard championship would be a major upset here.
Big12 - 6pm, ESPN - I think most people know what to expect from the power conference tournaments. So let’s stick to some talk about bubble teams and potential bid thieves. In the Big12 you have 2 potential bubble teams with Cincinnati being the headliner. However, a season finale loss to TCU may have seen the Bearcats’ bubble burst. They’re currently 17-14, and 63rd in WAB. Meanwhile, Oklahoma St. has quietly reached the bubble despite not having any real surge, but going 2-1 in their last 3 with a win at UCF being the better of the 2. The WAB of 51 is knocking on the door, and obviously has them better positioned than Cincy to sneak into a field where every bubble team seems to be trying to miss the tournament. Oklahoma St. will need to dodge a bad loss to Colorado in their opener on Tuesday, and then they’ll get a shot at TCU in the second round. Win that, and it’s on to the quarterfinals versus 3-seed Kansas. Winning all 3 and they could see themselves in the field a week from Today. If they win the first 2, it gets a little dicier. Cincy likely needs to make the final, which would require beating Utah, UCF, top-seeded Arizona, and likely Texas Tech or Iowa St. Of course all of this is contingent upon the committee actually putting stock in conference tournament games, a fact that has not always been a given, despite what Seth Davis might tell you. Therefore, Cincy almost certainly needs to steal a bid, and it is certainly not outside the realm of possibility. Since February 1, Cincy has played like the 11th best team in the country, despite going just 6-3, with wins over tourney-bound UCF, at Kansas, v. fellow-bubble-dweller Oklahoma St., and Saunders-less BYU. They’ve been much better since Jizzle James has returned (who knows, maybe the committee will give them some injury leeway). The other dark horse here? Arizona State…YES BOBBY FUCKING HURLEY’s squad has played like the 38th best team in the country since February 1, beating Texas Tech and Kansas at home in that stretch. If a bid is to be stolen, my money is on Cincy or ASU.
MWC - 6pm, CBS - The MWC has had some very good years of late, but this is not it. At the moment, there’s a very good chance this is a 1-bid league if Utah St. wins the conference tournament. That said, the Aggies have limped down the stretch, going just 2-3 in their last 5 including bad road losses at Nevada (76 KenPom) and UNLV (104) by a whopping 27 points. Among the 3 losses was 2 good wins against GCU and New Mexico at home. New Mexico, currently 51 in WAB and SDSU, currently 54 in WAB, may be able to play themselves into the field with a berth in the tournament final. However, with at-large bids within their grasp neither team has looked particularly good. New Mexico has lost 3 of 4, the lone win ironically coming against San Diego St., losing at Nevada by 7, at home to Colorado St. (85) by 8, and a respectable 4-point loss to Utah St. to close out the season. SDSU has lost 4-5 dating back to February 17, when they lost to GCU at home, they backed that up with a bad loss at Colorado St., by 9. SDSU appeared to have righted the ship by beating Utah St. at home; however, they backed that up with consecutive losses at New Mexico and Boise St, before narrowly squeaking by UNLV at home to close out the year. Boise St. comes in hot, ranking 38th nationally in Torvik since February 1st, ahead of Utah St. at 46 in that span, with the Broncos having won 5 straight including beating SDSU and a road win at Colorado St., who had won 8-straight prior to losing to Boise St. This tournament should be pretty wide open, with 8-teams in the top-100 of KenPom and 5 in the top-60, ranging from 35-60. Nevada and Colorado St. lurk just beyond that at 76 and 85, respectively, with Wyoming the last team inside the top-100 at 98. UNLV not far behind at 104, and has shown a recent penchant for playing the top teams tough, beating Utah St., and losing by only 3 at SDSU in their last 2 games, plus an OT win against in-state rival Nevada 3 games ago. Truly cannot predict how this one will shake out. I’d like to ride the hot hand, but outside of one tournament championship in 2022, Leon Rice’s record in Vegas is not the best. UNLV has swept the season series with Utah St., so if you want a deep dark horse value, that could be the ticket. Should be a fun one.
Big East - 6:30pm, Fox - What a brutal year for the Big East. Cruising towards just 3-bids. The only way a fourth bid gets in is with a bid thief winning this conference tournament. That possibility seems unlikely. Per KenPom, St. John’s is almost 4 points per 100 better offensively than Villanova, whom they drubbed by 32, while UConn is almost 8 points better. The drop-off to fourth place Seton Hall is steeper, over 9 points separate St. John’s and Seton Hall, while UConn is almost 13 points better. If there is to be a dark horse, Seton Hall would be the team. They played tough in their four games against the Johnnies and Huskies, losing by 21 combined across the four contests, the worst loss of the bunch being the 7-point loss at home to St. John’s to close the regular season. That said, it just seems highly unlikely that the champion here comes from outside the top-3, and frankly it’s unlikely to come from outside just the top-2. My prediction, the Johnnies and Huskies give the fans what we want: a third heavyweight bout, the rubber match.
Big West - 7pm, ESPN2 - I’m a night owl. Nothing better than having a few tokes and watching some west coast basketball. The last few seasons, that has meant plenty of Big West. Just under a decade ago, in 2016-17, the Big West was the 29th ranked conference out of a then-32 (RIP OG Pac12) per KenPom. Last year it was ranked 12th and had damn 2 at-large caliber teams—as it were tournament champion UC San Diego was just outside at-large range with a 12-seed, while UC-Irvine was a 1-seed in the NIT. This year the conference is 11th, and plays fun-ass basketball, ranking as the highest tempo conference in the country, with 72.2 possessions per game. UC Irvine once again finds itself near the top, but unlike last year, they’re the 1-seed this season, edging out Hawaii by just 1 game. That said, you have 4 teams in this league with adjusted net efficiency ratings per KenPom: UC Irvine +6.04 (106), UC San Diego +5.30 (113) Hawaii +5.04 (115), and UC Santa Barbara +3.46 (125). I would say any of those 4 are capable of winning this tournament. Flip a coin. None of these games will be more than a 2-point spread. Relevant to the discussion is also the format, an 8-team ladder. Despite its net efficiency rating, UC San Diego is the 5th seed, after a-3 way tie for 3rd saw UC San Diego lose tiebreakers to Cal States Fullerton and Northridge. The Tritons will need to win 4 games in 4 days to get secure the bid. That said, they’re the hottest team in the league since February 1, per Torvik, going 7-2 in that stretch. That capped off an impressive first season for new head coach Clint Allard, after Eric Olen decamped for New Mexico on the heels of last year’s success. That said, my money is on Russell Turner and the UC Irvine Anteaters. Sure, picking the favorite is boring, but Turner is a fantastic coach, with the Anteaters playing like a top-25 defense per KenPom. It has been 7 years since UC Irvine has made the tournament, despite being in the top-110 on KenPom every year but 1 in that stretch, and I think they get back. If you want a dark horse, can I interest you in a Matador? CSUN is capable of hanging with the big boys, having swept UC Santa Barbara, and split with UC San Diego and Hawaii. However, they couldn’t get over the hump versus UC Irvine, falling a point short at home on February 26. They have a buy into the quarterfinals by virtue of the tiebreakers over UC San Diego, so they’ll only need to win 3 games…is the 3rd time the charm against the anteaters?
SWAC - 7:30pm, ESPNU - While the league lacks quality, there are two fairly evenly matched teams at the top: Bethune Cookman, who gave Auburn an OT scare on opening night and played on of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, ranking 6th per KenPom, having faced, in addition to Auburn, Miami (FL), Dayton, Indiana, Missouri, Saint Louis, Arizona, and Oklahoma St. Needless to say the Wildcats are battle-tested. The main team in their way: the Southern Jaguars. Not to be outdone, Southern played the 3rd toughest non-conference schedule, facing Arkansas, Marquette, Washington, Texas, Baylor, and Illinois, as well as a sneaky contest versus top mid-major Cal Baptist. Bethune Cookman has a significant KenPom edge, with an adjusted net efficiency of -6.21 versus -9.50 for Southern, and no one else is better than -13.00. The teams split the season series, with the home team winning each by a combined margin of 7 points across the 2 games. If you’re looking for a team that could upset the apple cart, your best bet is Florida A&M. The Rattlers earned the 2-seed by holding the tiebreaker over Southern by virtue of sweeping the season series with a combined margin of 19 points under first year head coach, former NBA player (and 2-sport star at FSU) Charlie Ward. Florida A&M is also coming in winning 4 straight, with wins at Southern and a season ending win vs. Bethune Cookman, so they can beat the big boys.
MAC - 8pm, ESPN2 - Casuals won’t comprehend that Miami (OH) isn’t even the highest-quality team in their own league per efficiency metrics, that goes to Akron. The Zips are 26-5 on the season, and 17-1 in conference, with the lone loss a tight, 3-point road game at Miami (OH). Of course, on top of having won the lone meeting in this unbalanced schedule conference, the Redhawks have by far the superior resume, famously closing out the regular season 31-0. All those wins only earned them an adjusted net efficiency rating of +8.95 at KenPom, with several close calls hurting their efficiency metrics, including an OT victories over at UNC Asheville (KenPom 245), versus Buffalo (207), at Kent St. (153) and at Ohio (227). The cardiac ‘hawks also narrowly escaped versus UMass (201), at Buffalo (207), at Western Michigan (273), and versus Toledo (135). Meanwhile, the Zips went undefeated in conference after the Miami (OH) loss, albeit with two close calls of their own: at E. Michigan (240) and versus UMass (201). The bracket here is a standard 8-team bracket, every one will need to win 3 games to claim the bid. Five teams failed to qualify for the tournament: Ball St., all 3 directional Michigan schools, and Northern Illinois. Miami (OH) will open with UMass, a team that has given them problems this year. However, all signs here point to a showdown between Akron and Miami (OH), and I’m here for it. My money is on the Zips. As for a dark horse, I just don’t see it. I wanted to pick UMass for that role, but they come in ICE cold, losing 6 (5 in conference) before beating Ohio at home in the season finale, including a bad home loss to Buffalo in OT and a road loss at Ball St. So I guess a dark horse here would be Toledo? Like I said, I just don’t see it, but the Rockets are the only other team inside the top 175 since February 1, per Torvik. They come in winning 4 of 5, with the lone loss coming at Miami (OH). But two of those wins were against teams that didn’t even qualify for the conference tournament. So like I said, there simply isn’t a dark horse to like here.
ACC - 8:30pm, ESPN - Duke feels inevitable. They’re over 15 points per 100 better in net adjusted efficiency metrics than their next closest conference rival (Virginia). They’re on pace to post a historic KenPom number, should they finish the season at or above +40.00 adjusted net efficiency, and they currently sit at +40.60. They will be a double digit favorite over the Cavaliers should they meet in the final, and they romped Virginia by 26 in their lone regular season meeting. Duke has just 1 loss in conference, at the 4-seed UNC, on a ridiculous Seth Trimble buzzer beater. Duke avenged that loss in the season finale, smoking the Caleb Wilson-less Tarheels by 15. With Wilson out for the season, I think we’re unlikely to see UNC stop Duke in Charlotte. If there’s one team that’s hot right now that might be able to sneak an upset, it’s Florida State. The Seminoles are the 8-seed, and so a win over 9-seed Cal in Wednesday’s 2nd round would see them face Duke while still fresh. The ‘noles are long and athletic, and play a 3-point heavy style, while keeping teams off the 3-point line. The ‘noles were up 2 with 14 to play versus Duke in Tallahassee, before Duke pulled away with a 12-2 run, and a late comeback attempt fell 4-points short. They’ve also played like the 31st best team in the country since February 1, per Torvik, versus a season-long rank of 59, going 7-2 in that span. Another interesting note, 3-seed Miami (FL) is having a great season under first year head coach Jai Lucas. Lucas is a former Duke assistant, and due to the unbalanced scheduling, Duke and Miami (FL) have not played this season. Does Lucas have a couple tricks up his sleeve should the ‘canes and the Blue Devils meet in the final?
CUSA - 8:30pm, CBS Sports -
WAC - 9pm, ESPN2 -
March 15 - Selection Sunday
Ivy - 12pm, ESPN2 -
A10 - 1pm, CBS -
SEC - 1pm, ESPN -
AAC - 3:15pm, ESPN -
B1G - 3:30pm, CBS -