Franketology: February 2, 2026
The calendar has turned to February. We’re about 6 weeks from Selection Sunday. The picture for me still seems very muddy around the bubble. You have several teams that completely lack a Q1 win, remain unblemished outside Q1&2 (but for Santa Clara’s Q4 loss) but have metrics indicating potential inclusion:
St. Mary’s (CA): 32 NET/37 WAB/37.67 Predictives Avg./36.33 Resume Avg.
Miami (OH): 53 NET/33 WAB/87.33 Predictives Avg./36.67 Resume Avg. (auto bid team)
Oklahoma St.: 67 NET/45 WAB/66.00 Predictives Avg./44.67 Resume Avg.
George Mason: 65 NET/43 WAB/83.67 Predictives Avg./39.33 Resume Avg.
Santa Clara: 43 NET/47 WAB/43.33 Predictives Avg./48.00 Resume Avg.
Now compare those to these teams near the bubble metrically, but which have multiple Q1 wins:
Texas: 39 NET/51 WAB/35.33 Predictives Avg./56.00 Resume Avg.; 3-4 in Q1; 0 Q3&4 losses
Cal: 51 NET/41 WAB/60.00 Predictives Avg./42.37 Resume Avg.; 3-4 in Q1; 0 Q3&4 losses
Va. Tech: 55 NET/48 WAB/64.67Predictives Avg./44.33 Resume Avg.; 2-5 in Q1; 1 Q3 loss
Mizzou: 70 NET/49 WAB/56.33 Predictives Avg./51.67 Resume Avg., 3-4 in Q1, no Q3&4 losses
Stanford: 78 NET/60 WAB/84.00 Predictives Avg./55.67 Resume Avg.; 4-3 in Q1, 3 Q3 losses
Baylor: 56 NET/67 WAB/51.00 Predictives Avg./65.67 Resume Avg.; 3-6 in Q1, no Q3&4 losses
TCU: 54 NET/63 WAB/55.00 Predictives Avg./64.67 Resume Avg.; 3-6 Q1, 1 Q3 loss; 1 Q4 loss
Washington: 47 NET/61 WAB/45.00 Predictives Avg./61.67 Resume Avg.; 2-7 Q1; no Q3&4 losses
And of course we haven’t even touched upon the bubble teams with just 1 Q1 victory:
Wisconsin: 41 NET/35 WAB/36.33 Predictives Avg./37.67 Resume Avg.
New Mexico: 42 NET/40 WAB/46.00 Predictives Avg./39.67 Resume Avg.; 1-3 Q1, 1 Q3 loss
Ohio St: 40 NET/52 WAB/39.67 Predictives Avg./52.67 Resume Avg.; 1-6 Q1
Seton Hall: 49 NET/53 WAB/52.00 Predictives Avg./50.67 Resume Avg.; 1-3 Q1
SDSU: 45 NET/50 WAB/46.33 Predictives Avg./51.00 Resume Avg.; 1-4 Q1, 1 Q3 loss
How does one separate these teams? It’s tough because there’s no definitive answer. Different emphases will result in different results. For my money, I tried to focus on the WAB and quality wins, with predictive metrics third, as I believe that most accurately reflects what the committee has done in recent years. But there’s certainly no right way or wrong way to order these teams.
I ordered them as such, with seed line:
10 Texas
11 Cal
11 Wisconsin
11 Va. Tech
11 St. Mary’s (CA)
11 Mizzou
11 Miami (OH)
FFO New Mexico
FFO Ohio St.
FFO Seton Hall
FFO SDSU
NFO Ok. St.
NFO George Mason
NFO Santa Clara
NFO Stanford
Others: Baylor, WVU, TCU, Washington
Pick it apart all you want, I’m far from a pro at this. Here’s the rest of it:
SEED LIST
Arizona
Michigan
Duke
UConn
Illinois
Iowa St.
Houston
Gonzaga
Nebraska
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Michigan St.
Florida
Kansas
Texas Tech
BYU
Tennessee
Virginia
North Carolina
Alabama
Arkansas
Louisville
St. John's
Saint Louis
Clemson
Auburn
Texas A&M
Kentucky
NC St.
Iowa
UCF
Utah St.
Villanova
SMU
Indiana
Georgia
Miami (FL)
Last 4 Byes
UCLA
Southern California
Texas
California
Last 4 In
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
Saint Mary's (CA)
Missouri
Other Auto Bids
Miami (OH)
Tulsa
Belmont
McNeese St.
Liberty
Yale
High Point
Utah Valley
UNCW
Hawai'i
Troy
North Dakota St.
Austin Peay
Wright St.
ETSU
UT Martin
Marist
Navy
Montana St.
Merrimack
Bethune-Cookman
Howard
Vermont
First Four Out
New Mexico
Ohio St.
Seton Hall
San Diego St.
Next Four Out
Oklahoma St.
George Mason
Santa Clara
Stanford