Franketology: January 24, 2026
The apocalyptic blizzard has rolled into town for this Newarker, so I’m bored. That means it’s time for another Franketology. I also think a fair amount has changed with every team playing at least 1 game, and many 2 since the morning of the 20th when I published my last Franketology.
Also, I’m human, I make mistakes, and I think not including Cal after their win over North Carolina was probably a mistake. They should have been next 4 out, at worst with a WAB of 40 on January 20, when I last did one of these. Between my mistake and Cal backing up the UNC victory with a road win over bay area rival and fellow bubble team Stanford, is enough for them to go from nowhere to be found, to last 4 in. Texas kind’ve a hard luck loser her, falling out of the bracket after losing at Kentucky—no shame there—and backing that up with a quality home win over Georgia. Their WAB still sits on the wrong side of 50. The rest of the resume metrics average to just 57.67. and they have 3 losses outside Q1 to Ohio St.’s 1, with OSU’s loss falling in Q2, while Texas still holds a Q3 loss. You could probably convince me either way between OSU and Texas, but based on what we saw with WAB last season, I will let the WAB break the deadlock, and put OSU in over Texas.
It’s also time we talk about Miami (OH). Yes, the debate for my last team is between OSU and Texas, despite having Miami (OH) being seeded as my last at-large team. Why? Because I don’t believe the committee will leave out a team with a 32 WAB, but I also don’t believe a team with predictive metrics of 83 and 0 Q1 games, let alone a Q1 win will be seeded any higher than last team in. Frankly, if it weren’t for what we saw with WAB last season, I would probably have Texas over Miami (OH). If I were on the committee, Miami (OH) would be nowhere near the bubble.
Travis Steele recently said “ People are going to say, ‘well who did they play?’ You still got to win. We’re 19-0 — haven’t lost any games. We’ve won on the road. We’ve won neutral. We’ve won home.” And that is true. Any team going undefeated is impressive. The issue I take is with his next statement “[d]on’t penalize us for people [who] aren’t willing to play us.” Sorry, that simply isn’t a complaint you get to make when you scheduled the 362nd ranked out-of-conference strength of schedule out of 365, a slate that included 3 non-D1 opponents. It does not have to be like that.
While I am sympathetic to the difficulty of scheduling when you’re a respected mid-major, as Miami (OH) is under Travis Steele, there are plenty of mid-major squads that scheduled much better than Miami (OH). The west coast mid-majors (WCC, MWC, Big West) are perfect examples. These programs schedule lots of games amongst themselves to help their SOS, rather than what Miami (OH) did, which is schedule 3 non-D1 opponents and only 2 D1 opponents ranked in the top-200 of KenPom (139 Wright St. and a to-be-played early-February date with 168 Marshall). It’s not like they got surprised or got bad luck, no one expected much from Old Dominion (KP 238), Air Force (346), D1 transitional program Mercyhurst (295), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (309), UNC Greensboro (305), Maine (345), UNC-Asheville (218), or the 3rd best directional Kentucky school—Eastern Kentucky (261).
Compare that abysmal Miami (OH) schedule to that of fellow bubble hopeful Santa Clara, who arguably has a tougher time scheduling as they’re in a significantly better conference than the MAC. They scheduled only 1 non-D1 opponent—their opener versus Cal Poly Humboldt—and scheduled games vs. McNeese (66), at Xavier (85), vs. Nevada (67), vs. Idaho St. (214), an MTE where they faced St. Louis (24) and Minnesota (84), at New Mexico (46), vs. Arizona St. (N)(83), and vs. N. Texas (N) (144). That should be a lesson in how to schedule for a mid-major. It’s also not an anomaly. McNeese only gets 9 games due to a 22-game Southland schedule, and they still scheduled very strong in the other 7-games: at Santa Clara (43), an MTE where they drew George Washington (70) and Murray St. (91), Mid. Tennessee (148), Rhode Island (109) and Michigan (2). They faced just 1 D1 non-conference opponent currently outside the top 150, Louisiana (331). UC San Diego had 2 non-D1 opponents, and not a single non-conference opponent outside the top-200 (200 San Diego was the worst—a local rivalry). Oakland, Middle Tennessee and McNeese, all highly regarded mid-majors managed top-15 OOC schedules (2, 8, 15).
And look, there are a lot of complexities in scheduling, any discussion of the same will necessarily flatten the difficulty. But let’s look at preseason mid-majors ranked higher than Miami (OH), who was 127th preseason, with their current OOC SOS rank, per KenPom:
30 SDSU - 50
42 Utah St. - 129
60 VCU - 232
65 St. Louis - 319
79 Colo. St. - 279
80 GCU - 307
81 George Washington - 249
84 San Fran - 175
88 N. Texas - 261
91 George Mason - 335
92 Nevada - 117
94 Akron - 258
97 New Mexico - 144
98 UAB - 289
99 (lol) Loyola Chicago - 317
100 Liberty - 146
101 McNeese - 15
102 Yale - 140
103 High Point - 357
104 S. Florida - 78
105 Santa Clara - 85
106 Bradley - 150
107 UNLV - 164
108 Belmont - 296
109 the other SJU - 299
110 Duquesne - 318
111 Utah Valley - 116
112 Rhode Island - 297
113 Hawaii - 364
114 Tulane - 300
115 UC Irvine - 172
116 Northern Iowa - 208
117 Seattle - 311
118 Chattanooga - 274
119 Richmond - 347
120 UNCW - 360
121 Illinois St. - 250
122 St. Bonnies - 288
123 Drake - 286
124 Troy - 97
125 Kent St. - 273
126 UCSB - 223
The fact that Miami (OH)’s out-of-conference schedule is as bad as it was is entirely self-inflicted.
And don’t get it twisted, I am ALL for more mid-major representation in the NCAAT. If I had my druthers, when they expand the tournament—another discussion for another day, I’m opposed, but it will happen eventually—they should guarantee a bid for every regular season and conference champion. Eliminate the bid thieves, get more mid-major representation. A win-win. But Miami (OH) ain’t it. Mid majors I would personally give Miami (OH)’s spot to tomorrow: SDSU, Seton Hall, Santa Clara, VCU, George Mason, Boise St., GCU, Nevada, and S. Florida.
So Miami (OH) has no one to blame but themselves if they don’t get an at-large. /End Rant
Without further ado, here’s the Franketology:
SEED LIST
Arizona
Michigan
Duke
UConn
Nebraska
Illinois
Michigan St.
Iowa St.
Purdue
Gonzaga
Houston
Vanderbilt
BYU
Texas Tech
Virginia
Kansas
Arkansas
Tennessee
Alabama
Florida
Louisville
Saint Louis
North Carolina
St. John's
Auburn
Villanova
Georgia
Kentucky
SMU
Clemson
Iowa
Utah St.
Texas A&M
UCF
Wisconsin
NC St.
UCLA
Last Four Byes
Miami (FL)
Saint Mary's (CA)
New Mexico
Virginia Tech
Last Four In
California
Missouri
Ohio St.
Miami (OH)
Auto Bids
Tulsa
Belmont
Yale
McNeese St.
Liberty
Akron
Troy
Utah Valley
High Point
Hawai'i
North Dakota St.
Hofstra
ETSU
Lipscomb
Wright St.
Montana St.
Marist
Navy
UT Martin
Merrimack
Vermont
Bethune-Cookman
Howard
First Four Out
Texas
San Diego St.
Southern California
Stanford
Next Four Out
Indiana
TCU
Seton Hall
Butler
Bold = Auto Bid