Franketology: January 20, 2026
Some interesting stuff happening with Franketology in this edition. We now have four two-bid leagues. WCC is of course expected, with Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. For several years now it’s also been a given that the MWC would get at least two teams. That is not guaranteed this year by any stretch. At the moment, Franketology has SDSU narrowly squeaking in by virtue of its recent home win over New Mexico. Depending on how things play out the rest of MWC, the February 28th return game at The Pit could determine whether SDSU or New Mexico gets an at-large bid. Utah St. gets the auto bid, and has a clear at-large case at this point in time, and is very likely to get an at-large should they need it.
Joining the ranks of multi-bid leagues are the A10. St. Louis gets the auto bid, but is certainly more than worthy of an at-large as well. George Mason joins SLU as the last team in the field, by virtue of being undefeated in quads 2-4, which has their resume metrics average at 37.33 and WAB at 38. Mason’s only loss was at Virginia Tech, certainly forgivable. That said, with an 0-1 record in Q1, and only 2 remaining Q1 opportunities, the Patriots have little margin for error in A10 play, and will likely need to pick up 1 of those 2 Q1 opportunities (assuming VCU remains a Q1 road opportunity, which they should, currently sitting at 55th in NET versus a 75th cut-off for Q1 status for road games). That said, if Mason finishes with a top-40 WAB, it’ll be very unlikely we see them left out, hell if any team finishes top-40 in WAB, it’s highly unlikely they will be out in the cold come Selection Sunday.
Finally, the last multi-bid league in this edition…the MAC?! Yes, the MAC. MACtion is having a very good year relative to their expectations and history. Part of the reason this is a two-bid league right now is the way that I do my auto bids, which was covered in a prior edition of Franketology. Using predictive metrics average, Akron is actually the best team in the conference, 71.66 to 87.66. However, Miami (OH) currently as a WAB of 29, and there’s almost a 0% chance the committee leaves out a team with a WAB of 29. Miami (OH) has already beaten Akron in Miami, and due to unbalanced scheduling, we will be deprived of a return game. The nice part about the numbers working out this way is that it functions as a bit of a bid thief, which is more reflective of what is likely to happen come March (a bid thief or 2) than a traditional mid-January bracketology, which generally has at-large-caliber teams in one-at-large-bid leagues getting the auto bid.
I also like to compare what I’m doing to BracketMatrix. I don’t change anything, I check it when I’m done, see if I have any blind spots or issues to incorporate for the next Franketology. One area where I have a decent-sized disagreement with the Matrix is as regards Stanford. Matrix has them as the last bye, narrowly avoiding the First Four as an 11-seed. I have them as my 2nd-highest 9 seed. Why? They’re 4-2 in Q1, with a Q1A neutral victory over SLU and a Q1 road victory at Virginia Tech. They’ve beaten Louisville and UNC at home. The metrics are not wild about the Cardinal, other than KPI, their highest metric at 25. NET has them just 68th and WAB has them 40th. Their highest efficiency metric is Torvik, 69th. They’re being docked style points for bad losses at home to Notre Dame, Seattle and UNLV. Notre Dame is barely a Q3 loss, with the Irish clocking in at 78. Seattle and UNLV are not great losses, but they’re respectable mid-majors. Counterbalancing those 3 losses is the 4 Q1 Ws, including a Q1A W. They’re the lowest seeded team with at least 3 Q1 wins, and that feels right to me.
Without further ado, here’s the Franketology:
TRUE SEED LIST
Arizona
Michigan
Duke
UConn
Nebraska
Purdue
Houston
Gonzaga
Vanderbilt
Illinois
Iowa St.
Michigan St.
BYU
Virginia
Florida
Alabama
Kansas
Texas Tech
Clemson
Arkansas
St. John's
Louisville
Saint Louis
Villanova
Tennessee
North Carolina
Kentucky
Iowa
Utah St.
UCF
SMU
Miami (FL)
Georgia
Stanford
Auburn
Texas A&M
Wisconsin
Saint Mary's (CA)
Southern California
Seton Hall
Texas
San Diego St.
Missouri
Miami (OH)
George Mason
Tulsa
McNeese St.
Belmont
Yale
Liberty
Akron
High Point
Hofstra
Utah Valley
Troy
Hawai'i
Wright St.
St. Thomas (MN)
ETSU
Montana St.
Marist
Lipscomb
Colgate
UT Martin
Merrimack
Vermont
Southern U.
Howard
First Four Out
Baylor
Butler
UCLA
NC St.
Next Four Out
Indiana
Ohio St.
New Mexico
LSU