Franketology: February 24, 2026
If you live in a cave and do not get college basketball news, the NCAA Selection Committee released their top-4 seed lines preview on Saturday. Here’s the seed list, with their regions:
Michigan (Midwest)
Duke (East)
Arizona (West)
Iowa St. (South)
UConn (South)
Houston (Midwest)
Illinois (East)
Purdue (West)
Florida (Midwest)
Kansas (East)
Nebraska (South)
Gonzaga (West)
Texas Tech (South)
Michigan St. (West)
Vanderbilt (East)
Virginia (Midwest)
A lot to digest there. I think, as of Saturday, they had this mostly right. Indeed, on Thursday, I had this mostly the same, except I had UConn 8th, Gonzaga over Kansas and Nebraska, and I had already dropped Texas Tech to the 5-seed line anticipating them getting dinged for the Toppin injury, and the rest of my 4-seeds were the same, except I had MSU below Vandy and Virginia. So kudos to me, I guess.
Since that release, a lot has changed. Iowa St. took a bad loss at home to Saunders-less BYU, Duke beat Michigan on a neutral floor. UConn steadied the ship with a win over Villanova, Arizona beat Houston, UVa struggled with Miami (FL) at home, and Vandy narrowly lost at home to Tennessee. This obviously caused some movement, the biggest of which will be that Michigan falls below Duke for the number 1 overall seed. However, this is pure vanity, as it doesn’t affect regional preferences, with Michigan remaining in the midwest region, and Duke remaining in the east. With the bad loss and the UConn win, UConn gets back to the 1-seed line. UConn did most of their work out-of-conference, but they still have the best collection of top-line wins of any team in contention for the last 1-seed, with NET ranks:
UConn: Illinois (N) (4), Florida (N) (7), at Kansas (18)
Iowa St.: at Purdue (6), Houston (8), St. John’s (N) (23)
Houston: Texas Tech (14), at BYU (19), Arkansas (N) (20)
Illinois: at Purdue (6), at Nebraska (11), Tennessee (N) (17)
Purdue: at Nebraska (11), Texas Tech (N) (14), at Alabama (21)
Those wins are keeping UConn a hair above the rest, as they’re 7-2 in Q1, the highest Q1 win percentage of the bunch, have a WAB of 4, and resume metrics average of 4, but they have a predictive metrics average of just 10.33, below the other 4 teams on that list, with ISU and Purdue tied at 7.67. The committee clearly saw fit to reward those quality wins. Should be notable that ISU, who was ahead of UConn in the eyes of the Committee, probably has just the 3rd best set of top-tier wins. Illinois’ trio def gives UConn a run for their money.
All of this is to say, I think you can safely lock the top-3 1-seeds, in whatever order, but there’s everything to play for the teams vying for that last 1-seed.
Many reading this will know, I’m a diehard St. John’s fan, with season tickets at center court, 3 rows behind the announcers. So let’s have a brief discussion about my Johnnies. One of the other things that came out Saturday was that the top-2 5-seeds were Alabama and Arkansas, in that order. Both teams held serve after the announcement, so that means neither is likely to have moved in the eyes of the committee. What that mean, in my humble opinion, is that the final 2 5-seeds comes down to the following 3 teams:
Battle for the last 2 5-seeds
I had SJU on the 5-seed line with Tennessee up to this point. However, with UNC defeating Louisville, without Caleb Wilson gives them the push they need to over take both those teams and slot comfortable into the 3rd 5-seed slot. They have the 2nd best resume metrics in the group. The 2nd most wins against at large teams (based on the current BracketMatrix.com consensus), their top-3 wins stack up nicely against Tennessee, and both blow St. John’s tpo-3 wins out of the water. UNC does not have a loss outside Q1, while Tennessee has a Q2 loss and SJU has a Q3. UNC has more Q1A, more Q1 wins total, and a better Q1A and Q1 win percentage than Tennessee. If there’s one thing that can be taken from the committee’s work on Saturday, it’s that they intend to emphasize quality of wins, and focusing on the high-end wins, over efficiency metrics. It’s admittedly a close call, but given the focus on results, and North Carolina’s lack of bad losses, better Q1A win percentage, better Q1 win percentage, and having 1 more Q1 win than Tennessee, I gave UNC the edge.
After slotting UNC as the 3rd 5-seed, it seems clear to me that St. John’s resume simply isn’t as good as Tennessee. Tennessee has more wins against the field by a factor of 4, they have 5 Q1 wins, all of the Q1A variety versus just 2-1 and 3 total Q1 victories for St. Joh’s, Tennessee’s only loss outside of Q1 is a Q2 loss at Syracuse, which holds up far better than St. John’s Q3 home loss to Providence, and Tennessee is better in every team sheet metrics except KPI.
In short, there simply isn’t a case that St. John’s has a better resume than either of these teams. The only place St. John’s is clearly above either team is in efficiency metrics, and even there, St. John’s only surpasses UNC. This is the unfortunate reality of playing in the Big East this season. Other teams continue to have excellent opportunities to improve their resumes, while the Big East has basically become the East Coast Conference, with 2-3 good teams playing a handful of meaningful games against each other while trying to avoid the land mines. UNC is a prime example—they got a Q1A home home win over a team ranked 14th in NET, with a resume metrics average of 14.67. That’s enough of a boost metrically and in their results to put them over the edge. There’s also the added circumstance that Kansas, by virtue of their win last night over Houston jumped from 18th in NET to 13th in NET, which gave UNC another Q1A win, as Kansas crossed the threshold of 15th for a Q1A home victory. So UNC picked up 2 Q1A wins last night, boosting them up to the 5-line at the expense of St. John’s.
Without further ado, here’s the bracket:
Seed List
Duke
Michigan
Arizona
UConn
Purdue
Iowa St.
Houston
Florida
Illinois
Kansas
Nebraska
Gonzaga
Michigan St.
Virginia
Texas Tech
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Arkansas
North Carolina
Tennessee
St. John's
BYU
Louisville
Saint Louis
NC St.
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Utah St.
Villanova
SMU
Iowa
Auburn
Clemson
Texas A&M
UCF
Miami (FL)
UCLA
Last Four Byes
Georgia
Texas
Indiana
Missouri
Last Four In
Saint Mary's (CA)
TCU
New Mexico
Santa Clara
Other Auto Bids
South Fla.
Belmont
McNeese St.
Yale
Akron
Liberty
High Point
Utah Valley
Hofstra
UC Irvine
North Dakota St.
Austin Peay
ETSU
Navy
Arkansas St.
Merrimack
Wright St.
UT Martin
Marist
Montana St.
UMBC
Howard
Bethune-Cookman
First Four Out
Ohio St.
Cincy
Southern California
VCU
Next Four Out
San Diego St.
Miami (OH)
California
Virginia Tech