Franketology: February 19, 2026
Shortest update of the season, but it feels like we’ve had some Results.™ The night after I posted my February 17 bracketology saw Michigan dominate Purdue in Mackey, SMU get a big home win over Louisville, Iowa eke out a home win over Nebraska, Ohio St. getting a key home win over Wisconsin, N.C. State clipping shorthanded UNC, Georgia beating Kentucky in Rupp, TCU fell to UCF in Orlando, Texas Tech took a bad lass at the hands of ASU, UCLA got murdered in East Lansing leading to another Mick Cronin Meltdown,™ SDSU took a home L versus Grand Canyon, and SLU took a road loss to URI. The next night saw UConn take a huge blow to their 1-seed campaign losing at home to the worst Creighton team in a generation, Seton Hall take a fatal blow at home at the hands of the might ‘mons, Alabama squeak out a home win over Arkansas, Mizzou get a clutch home win over Vandy, Illinois win in the Galen Center, Auburn take a bad loss on the road to Mississippi St., and Arizona beat Saunders-less BYU in Tucson.
How did this affect the field? The most notable is that TCU falls just out of the field. They continue to have one of the most bizarre resumes this side of Cal, and while the committee tends to reward quality, TCU has 2 bad losses, one of which is an absolutely atrocious Q4 loss to Southland also-ran New Orleans. Santa Clara, my last team in, does sport a 1-4 Q1 record, so they have a win, and they’re 6-1 in Q2 versus just 2-1 for TCU, the Q1&2 combined records are 7-5 for Santa Clara versus 6-8 for TCU. Obviously TCU has played more than twice as many Q1 games, but Santa Clara’s metrics out pace TCU’s by a meaningful margin, and that’s enough for me to have them just ahead of the Horned Frogs.
On the other end of the spectrum, UConn losing to Creighton could be the death blow to their 1-seed campaign. I have them all the way down to my last 2-seed. Here’s the blind resumes for my 1 through 3 seed lines:
The view from the top.
Obviously, some of these teams are obvious. 25-1 and #1 in every metric except ESPN’s BPI is clearly Michigan. Twos across the metrics except BPI, where they’re 1, that’s Duke. Absolutely wild that ESPN’s metrics is the only one putting an ESPN-conference team at #1, when the rest of the world has the Fox-conference Michigan squad number 1, but that’s another story for another day. Arizona is 3’s across the board except BPI where they’re 4th behind.
So after those 3 obvious 1-seeds, what’s the next best resume? I think you can make a case for the two 23-3 teams. The 22-5 team also has a case, based on the metrics and the Q1 wins. The 24-3 team can also have a case built largely on its resume metrics average, WAB figure, and the 7-2 Q1 record. That said, their predictive metrics are among the worst in this cohort. So for my money, it is one of the two 23-3 teams. Now, it will be tough for me to explain my rationale without exposing these teams, and they are Iowa State and Houston. The 24-3 squad is UConn, and the 22-5 squad is Illinois. I like ISU and Houston the most of this bunch. Given that we just watch ISU beat Houston—albeit barely, and at home—I gave ISU the nod. However, you could easily convince me that it is Houston.
The case for the last 1 seed being UConn is the quality of their top-end wins. They have 4 Q1A wins: BYU (21 NET), Illinois (4) and Florida (9) on “neutral” floors—scare quotes because these were virtual home games in TD Garden, MSG and MSG, respectively—and Kansas (13) in Allen Fieldhouse. However, that’s a 4-pack of wins ISU can mostly match: SJU(24) in a true neutral game, at Mackey Arena versus Purdue (8) and home versus Houston (7). Then, when you factor in ISU having zero losses outside of Q1, I think the picture becomes clearer. Houston’s wins just don’t stack up quite as well, with only 2 Q1A wins: at BYU (21) and versus Arkansas (N)(18). Their 3rd best is home versus Texas Tech (17), which is merely a Q1 game, not Q1A. Illinois also can match UConn’s wins, but UConn obviously has the head-to-head victory: at Purdue (8), at Nebraska (11), Tennessee (N)(19), at Iowa (25).
The call between Illinois and Houston for next on-deck was incredibly difficult. I ultimately gave Houston the slight edge. Their metrics, particularly resume metrics, are a smidge better, and Illinois is the only team of the ISU-Illinois-Houston trio to have a Q2 loss. I could see it go either way though. If Houston drops a Q2 game, it will flip instantly. If Illinois racks up another Q1A win, I could see myself slotting them above Houston. For now, it’s Houston.
As for the rest of the blind resumes, I’ll reference their NETs and then their seed line, and take them in the order they appear in the image:
13 Kansas - 3-seed - Metrics dictate a 3-seed. Lots of quality wins, of course, but that’s not unique amongst this group.
8 Purdue - 2 seed - Once again, the metrics have them here. No losses outside Q1, and 1 more Q1 victory than Kansas.
9 Florida - 3 seed - Out of conference play matters. Florida has been dominant in the SEC, sitting at 11-2, with a 2-game lead on first place. While their win versus Miami (FL) has aged very nicely, they have just 1 huge win, at Vandy, although a home victory over Tennessee is very good too, we have to pick nits here to separate the teams at the top.
11 Nebraska - 3 seed - The ‘huskers were one of the best stories of the first half of the season. A 4-4 record in Q1A games, with wins over MSU and at Illinois carry them this high, but they lack the metrics of the others in this group.
5 Gonzaga - 3 seed - The ‘zags are 26-2, a gaudy record, no doubt. However, they are a bit light in the quality wins department, having the fewest Q1A wins of any team in this group. The metrics are also on par with Nebraska, other than the NET. The ‘zags also have something no one else in this group has, a Q3 loss.
So that’s the top teams. Now let’s talk about the other end of the bracket…or not the bracket, as the case may be.
Miami (OH)…your omission from the field continues! I’ve talked about it before, still 10 points behind Akron in efficiency metrics, and they do not and will not have a Q1 win this season, or even an a Q1 game played. The committee tends to reward quality over just raw win totals. I hope they have the courage to stick to those guns should Miami (OH) ultimately lose in their conference tournament, and don’t blindly follow the WAB into setting a bad precedent. As for me, I am still undecided as to how I think the committee will handle Miami (OH) as an at-large candidate. If I ultimately think they’ll include Miami (OH) with an at-large bid, should they need it, I will eventually adjust this bracket. But given that I’m currently on the fence, I will go with what I would do, which is leave Miami (OH) out if they lose their conference tournament.
For the teams I have that are just outside of the field, I wanted to do a quick run down of what each might need to do. For ease of reference, here are those teams:
The wrong side of the bubble.
Let’s take each of these in order:
TCU - TCU is still struggling to erase the stain of a Q4 loss. They can’t erase that strategy. What they can do is win out, which would get them a marquee road win at Texas Tech. It’s certainly a winnable game now, given Toppin’s injury. While that takes the luster off a bit, it’d still be a third Q1A win, and a huge boost to their metrics. Before they get there though, they have a showdown this Saturday with fellow bubble dweller WVU. It’s in Fort Worth, so I don’t think TCU can survive what would be a Q2 loss, their 4th loss outside Q1. Piling up wins in their other 4 games and a win or 2 in the Big12 tournament should help boost their WAB and the rest of their resume numbers up into at-large range.
Ohio State - Here’s a novel idea…WIN A Q1 GAME! The Buckeyes are an abysmal 0-8 in Q1 games, 6 of those being Q1A. The lack of high end wins is problematic in their own right, but winning just 1 Q1 game down the stretch could boost their WAB and other resume metrics just high enough to be on the right side of the bubble. And you can be excused for thinking a team with 8 blown Q1 opportunities has missed their chance…but that’s not the case here in the stacked B1G. Ohio State will have opportunities at Michigan State, at Iowa, versus Purdue and versus Indiana. They’ll also have to avoid the road landmine in Happy Valley. Sitting at just 17-9, assuming they win the Penn State road game, I’d like to see them go 2-2 in the remaining 4 games, getting at least 1 on the road. If the Buckeyes do that, and avoid a bad loss in the B1G tournament, they won’t even have to sweat on Selection Sunday.
Virginia Tech - Back on February 12th I moved the Hokies from 2nd team out to last team in on the strength of a 10-point road win at Clemson. Since then the Hokies have lost at home to Florida St. (unforgivable) and at Miami (FL) (forgivable), knocking themselves back out of the field. The Hokies are 3-8 in Q1, with a Q1A victory, but they also have a Q3 loss. They have 4 games remaining: They get Wake and BC at home, both being must-wins to avoid a bad loss. They’ll have opportunities to drastically improve the resume at UNC and at UVa. Win both of those and the Hokies will probably be dancing, pending no bad losses in the ACC tournament. Win 1 and the path looks dicier, with a predictive metrics average of 61 and a WAB of 55 currently, 1 more quality win might not be enough to push those metrics onto the right side of the bubble.
SDSU - I consider myself a very casual SDSU fan. My aunt in San Diego is a season ticketholder, and it helps us stay connected. So needless to say, I’m pulling for the Aztecs…but it’s not looking good. SDSU is just 1-5 in Q1, with no Q1A victories. They also hold a Q3 loss at home to Troy. They were my first team out on Tuesday, but a 10-point home loss to GCU knocked them down to fourth team out. If they miss, it’ll end a stellar 6-year run for Brian Dutcher’s crew. They were poised for a 2-seed in 2020, and have made the last 5 tournaments, finishing as the national runner up to UConn in 2023 as a 5-seed. However, all hope is not lost. The Aztecs have 3 Q1 opportunities in their final 5 games: home for Utah St. (22), at fellow bubble dweller New Mexico(42) (possible at-large eliminator), and at Boise St. (65). Avoid the land mines when at Colorado St. and home for UNLV, and go 2-1in the Q1 games, and the Aztecs will see themselves right back in the picture. The MWC manages to find a way to maximize its tournament teams every year, to the point that it feels like they rigged it that way. So I fully expect the MWC to shake out in a way that gets both New Mexico and SDSU in the field. I have no support for this, just my conspiratorial belief that it always works out for the MWC—and of course there’s probably a 75% chance we see a bid thief in this league for a fourth MWC bid. Mark my words.
WVU - The Mountaineers beat UCF in Orlando on Valentine’s day, and things were looking up. I had them as First Four Out on Tuesday. However, last night, they did the unthinkable, dropping a home game to 9-16 Utah. Ick. With their best opportunity for a big win being Saunders-less BYU at home, they would have to win out and make some noise in the Big12 tournament if they want to make the field. The rest of their schedule: at TCU, at Oklahoma St., at Kansas St., and home for UCF. Not much to move the needle there.
VCU - The Rams are riding the nation’s 7th longest winning streak at 10 games. Unfortunately, they have not beaten a single team in the top-80 of KenPom in that stretch. Their metrics are right on the cusp, such that if they can finish out the regular season with four more wins, they can probably get themselves on the right side of the bubble, as long as they avoid disaster in the A10 tournament. That path starts with the toughest game of the stretch at SLU. A win there gives VCU 2 things it desperately needs: a Q1 win and a win over an at-large team. After that, they’ll have to beat Fordham and George Mason at home and Dayton on the road.
Cal - One of the most interesting resumes in my 3 years of doing this. The Golden Bears are a pretty 4-5 in Q1, including a Q1A win, very good relative to the rest of the bubble. However, a peek under the hood reveals that to be less impressive than at first blush. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble dweller UCLA, that was virtually a home game at the Chase Center in San Francisco. They caught UNC when the Tar Heels came to Berkeley, and got a cross-bay road win against rival Stanford, which is barely clinging to Q1 status. Their best win is a 1-point road victory at Miami (FL). Further cutting against that Q1 record is a bizarre 0-3 in Q2 games, losing at FSU, at Syracuse and at K-State. In their final 5 games they’ll probably need to win out, given that they only have one really good opportunity: a Q2A home game versus tourney-bound SMU. They’ll also have a Q1 road game at 14-12 Wake Forest. In between they need to avoid home land mines to Stanford and Pitt and a road landmine at lowly Georgia Tech. 5-0 probably gets it done, 4-1 probably not—but if the loss is the SMU or Wake Forest games, it’s possible—anything less and they’re certainly screwed.
Miami (OH) - They’ll never convince me, but they can probably convince the tourney by winning out and losing in the MAC title game. I hope for everyone’s sake they just win the damn MAC tourney, so we don’t have to deal with this shit.
Seton Hall - This IS a Big East centric blog (when I find the time lol) so let’s touch on hall, who would be my 9th team out. They were in Next Four Out territory on Tuesday, sitting 18-8, with 3 land mines (v. DePaul, v. Georgetown at Xavier) and 2 marquee matchups (at UConn and vs. St. John’s) left to play. They did the one thing they couldn’t afford to do, and stepped on the land mine losing by 12 at home to the ‘mons. That is likely the nail in the coffin for Seton Hall. To get back into contention at this point, they’d probably need to win out, including at UConn and versus St. John’s. IF they win the UConn game (the bigger prize given it is a road game and Q1A) and lose to St. John’s, it would give them a 2nd Q1 win and a first Q1A win. It would depend how that shakes out in WAB and the rest of their metrics.
Stanford - This is the last team I’ll mention, because it is another interesting resume, to say the least. The Cardinal is 4-4 in Q1, with 2 Q1A wins. However, they’re just 2-3 in Q2 and 4-3 In Q3. Those 3 Q3 losses are serving as an anchor around their necks, because the top lines of this resume are pretty good: wins vs. SLU (N), vs. Louisville, and vs. UNC. They also hold a win at Va. Tech. However, losing to Seattle, UNLV and Notre Dame, all at home, is brutal. That said, I brought them up for a reason. They have ample opportunity to improve this resume, with the following Q1 opportunities down the stretch: at Cal and at NC St., with Q2A opportunities vs. SMU and at Notre Dame. Win them all and they’re in the picture. Even 4-1, depending on the loss could see them almost to the right side of the bubble.
Next Eight (no particular order): Liberty (current auto bid), Belmont (current auto bid), Oklahoma St., Arizona St., Boise St., GCU, Wake Forest, S. Florida
That as a long-ass prelude, so let’s get to the main event:
Seed List
Michigan
Duke
Arizona
Iowa St.
Houston
Illinois
Purdue
UConn
Florida
Gonzaga
Kansas
Nebraska
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Michigan St.
Alabama
Texas Tech
Arkansas
Tennessee
St. John's
Louisville
North Carolina
BYU
Kentucky
Utah St.
Villanova
Saint Louis
Iowa
NC St.
Wisconsin
Clemson
SMU
Miami (FL)
UCF
Texas
Auburn
Indiana
Last Four Byes
Georgia
Missouri
Texas A&M
UCLA
Last Four In
Southern California
Saint Mary's (CA)
New Mexico
Santa Clara
Other Auto Bids
South Fla.
Belmont
McNeese St.
Liberty
Yale
Akron
SFA
Hofstra
High Point
Hawai'i
Austin Peay
St. Thomas (MN)
Navy
Merrimack
Wright St.
ETSU
Arkansas St.
Montana St.
UT Martin
Howard
Bethune-Cookman
Marist
Vermont
First Four Out
TCU
Ohio St.
Virginia Tech
San Diego St.
Next Four Out
West Virginia
VCU
California
Miami (OH)